Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Patcheslee]

By Newsday StaffUpdated December 2, 2020 12:47 PM

New York will have the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines for about 170,000 residents in about two weeks, said Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a significant step in trying to get the virus's spread down as the state climbs a new mountain of new infections.
He said Pfizer will deliver the number of doses for that many state residents on December 15, if all safety and efficacy approvals are granted.
New York is also expecting a second allocation of Pfizer vaccines and a separate allocation of Moderna's vaccine sometime later this month, state officials said. The vaccine will require a double dosage and its availability will be prioritized according to the federal guidelines reviewed by the state.
That will be part of a national vaccination push that will build up to about 40 million doses, or enough to vaccinate 20 million people across the country, by the end of the month, Cuomo said during a briefing with reporters. Those dosages will be enough to vaccinate about 6% of Americans, he said.

The hospital designated for distribution during the initial phase for us will be getting enough for 500 people, which they have already stated won't be enough for even all workers in long term facilities.
They hope to be able to widely distribute by April or May but it will depend on the refrigeration requirements and delivery of those as well for at least 1.

 

[techgeek]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

And no convention / business / group travel.

My perspective on this is from the viewpoint of business travel, as I was involved in the convention business prior to Covid and have had my ear to the ground on that angle throughout the pandemic.

Tourism might snap back relatively quickly (the ‘pent up demand’ theory), but business travel is now essentially confirmed to be on a much slower schedule and may never fully recover to 2019 levels. Several of the companies I have worked with have already communicated they are seeing patterns of ‘a new normal’ for business travel, and large companies across the board are signaling this is going to be a permanent change. At the very least, increased scrutiny and a business justification will be required for many corporate travel opportunities, even after widespread vaccine availability.

It’s too early to say how this affects the long term prospects of conventions and meetings (plenty of people still see value in in-person meetings and trade shows, certainly), but 2021 is essentially going to be a mirror of 2020’s horrible numbers - there may be a slow return beginning in the last quarter of the year. 2022 and beyond will largely be dictated by the global economic picture, and nobody is holding their breath on that yet.

Seeing as at least 20% of travel to Orlando in prior years was business related, this is likely to have a measurable effect on the recovery curve of the attractions. The bottom line at WDW is not simply dictated by tourism. In addition to the loss of ancillary guest traffic from ‘families tagging along’, Disney will have almost none of the direct business in 2021 they are used to from meeting space, hotel rooms, park & land buyouts, banquet F&B, etc. I don’t pretend to know what this means for the return of specific entertainment or guest offerings, but it all hits the same bottom line.

 

[Jrb1979]

Sorry if I was not clear, I was speaking post pandemic; around June, air travel back to normal, international travel to the US back to pre pandemic freedoms, the vaccine for anyone who wants it.

Todays economy or demand (I think) will look nothing like what we will see post pandemic.

We must hope the world will bounce back or else we should all just give up now..

I personally think it's going to take much longer then June to get everything back. I think it's going to take a few years for any of that to return. This whole hope of a vaccine comes and a switch is flipped is not realistic.

 

[Horizons '83]

I personally think it's going to take much longer then June to get everything back. I think it's going to take a few years for any of that to return. This whole hope of a vaccine comes and a switch is flipped is not realistic.

It will be a VERY long time before this thing is fully resolved. However we will get to a point where the risk is very low, which might be next Fall assuming no hiccups with the vaccines. If that is the case, it's time to starting the transition back to living normal again and accept the very small risk, like we do with other viruses/diseases.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

 

[Chip Chipperson]

If the result of the pandemic means the death knell of Golden Corral and that putrid cesspool of child germs referred to as the “chocolate fountain”, then that’s finally something good about 2020.

From a purely selfish perspective, I wouldn't mind seeing buffets disappear from Disney restaurants. Partly because (aside from Boma, which I love) the food is generally just meh. If anyone claims to prefer scrambled eggs and soggy bacon from a buffet over scrambled eggs and bacon made to order then that person is not someone whose judgment should ever be taken seriously. The selfish reason I welcome a switch from buffet to family-style meals is that I get my own special plate of food due to my body's awful inability to process gluten. I generally don't trust the food at a buffet to not be cross-contaminated by other guests who aren't aware of what they're doing as they shovel food onto their plates, so even at Boma I limit myself to an omelet from the omelet station and some of the allergy-friendly waffles and donuts that the server brings me from the kitchen. And that's all before you consider the germs and sticky handles on serving utensils because someone ahead of you had syrup on their hands as they scooped up their food.

 

[GoofGoof]

I personally think it's going to take much longer then June to get everything back. I think it's going to take a few years for any of that to return. This whole hope of a vaccine comes and a switch is flipped is not realistic.

It won‘t be a switch it will be gradual, but Disney won’t continue to operate like they are now for a few more years. It’s going to take a few years for the whole travel industry to fully recover. It may be likely that it’s into 2022 before full international travel is back. It will likely be into 2022 before a ramp up to near normal levels of convention and business travel. Many people will still be out of work or struggling to put the pieces back together on their finances through 2021.

All that being said, as soon as it’s safe and practical to do so Disney is going to loosen distancing requirements which opens the door for unrestricted park capacity and a start towards normalcy. Everything won’t return on June 1 or some set date, but as demand increases resorts will re-open which will add more guests to the parks and pretty soon after they will need to add back entertainment and shows and other people eating activities. Disney had a business model that worked well so they will ramp back up to that. It won’t be overnight, but I don’t think it will take multiple years either.

 

[hopemax]

LOL, If norovirus didn't make people think about the germs and buffets this won't make a dent. Not when the danger is the people at your table, not the food. Possibility of vomiting way higher than what people think their chances are of developing serious COVID.

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

IMO, capacity will be the first thing that starts to goes back to normal, but still with limits, until we start vaccinating regular people, without comorbidities. That's not going to be until late spring, summer. If the CDC, says places can go to 50%, then they will, but 75%, 100% won't happen until we are farther in the process.

Once everyone who wants a vaccine can get one, then things will start ramping back up, fairly quickly. Attraction shows, fireworks, character meet & greets, things Disney wants to monetize. Especially, if we could get a QR health code that could be imported into MDE. Then your green Mickey means you have been vaccinated and not just you have a FP or want a Photopass photo. If I were Disney I would be hoping that I can partner 50th anniversary campaign, with "we're back, baby." So October.

But I don't think mask usage goes away, completely until 2022. It may not be everywhere. But if you are on transportation, wear a mask. Put on your mask as you enter a queue. If you feel like a sardine or livestock, wear your mask.

Everything's not going to come back though. I am not as optimistic on a timeline of full recovery. Disney could get back up to 75%-80% of pre-pandemic levels pretty quickly. But it will stall, before reaching 100%, and be a grind like post 9/11 was, only worse. This is going to leave a lot of entertainment and free experiences in deep freeze.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It'll take a while to recover from this. Its not just the virus recovery that needs to take place, its also the financial recovery.

 

[Jwink]

It won‘t be a switch it will be gradual, but Disney won’t continue to operate like they are now for a few more years. It’s going to take a few years for the whole travel industry to fully recover. It may be likely that it’s into 2022 before full international travel is back. It will likely be into 2022 before a ramp up to near normal levels of convention and business travel. Many people will still be out of work or struggling to put the pieces back together on their finances through 2021.

All that being said, as soon as it’s safe and practical to do so Disney is going to loosen distancing requirements which opens the door for unrestricted park capacity and a start towards normalcy. Everything won’t return on June 1 or some set date, but as demand increases resorts will re-open which will add more guests to the parks and pretty soon after they will need to add back entertainment and shows and other people eating activities. Disney had a business model that worked well so they will ramp back up to that. It won’t be overnight, but I don’t think it will take multiple years either.

I hope it will at least be a year for masks... or longer.

 

[seabreezept813]

I feel like you're giving people a lot of credit here when in all actuality - at least here in the U.S., I can't speak for the rest of the world - the hordes are going to shrug their shoulders at the 'dangers' of COVID/viruses/cleanliness once we all have the vaccine. Buffets will reopen everywhere and no one will give a damn. Of course, many shrug their shoulders at COVID already... so you can imagine what that means for the future.

I think it will affect young kids. I teach high school and my students are excellent about wiping desks and sanitizing. I think it could turn into a lifetime habit... I know I will certainly be encouraging the sanitize as you enter, wipe your seat in the future.

 

[Seanual757]

I do not see Florida start to recover until 2022, I still believe we will see Masks mandated at WDW for the 1st 3 Q's @ WDW and maybe the entire 2021 year. We can expect to see almost zero International Travel to the US until at the very least 3rd if not the 4th Quarter 2021.

 

[GoofGoof]

I do not see Florida start to recover until 2022, I still believe we will see Masks mandated at WDW for the 1st 3 Q's @ WDW and maybe the entire 2021 year. We can expect to see almost zero International Travel to the US until at the very least 3rd if not the 4th Quarter 2021.

The UK starts vaccinating people next week. @marni1971 and @wdwmagic might get to WDW before I do

I actually think that sounds about right. Int’l flights may return in 2021 but the demand probably won’t be there until the second half of the year at the earliest.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I personally think it's going to take much longer then June to get everything back. I think it's going to take a few years for any of that to return. This whole hope of a vaccine comes and a switch is flipped is not realistic.

Well, yes June does seem optimistic, but a few years seems pessimistic. Let’s hope it will be sooner rather than later. If the stock market stays up (for what ever reason) , the recovery will be sooner rather than later.

 

[marni1971]

The UK starts vaccinating people next week. @marni1971 and @wdwmagic might get to WDW before I do

I actually think that sounds about right. Int’l flights may return in 2021 but the demand probably won’t be there until the second half of the year at the earliest.

It does. But it’ll be summer or beyond before enough of us are vaccinated.

 

[Chi84]

LOL, If norovirus didn't make people think about the germs and buffets this won't make a dent. Not when the danger is the people at your table, not the food. Possibility of vomiting way higher than what people think their chances are of developing serious COVID.


IMO, capacity will be the first thing that starts to goes back to normal, but still with limits, until we start vaccinating regular people, without comorbidities. That's not going to be until late spring, summer. If the CDC, says places can go to 50%, then they will, but 75%, 100% won't happen until we are farther in the process.

Once everyone who wants a vaccine can get one, then things will start ramping back up, fairly quickly. Attraction shows, fireworks, character meet & greets, things Disney wants to monetize. Especially, if we could get a QR health code that could be imported into MDE. Then your green Mickey means you have been vaccinated and not just you have a FP or want a Photopass photo. If I were Disney I would be hoping that I can partner 50th anniversary campaign, with "we're back, baby." So October.

But I don't think mask usage goes away, completely until 2022. It may not be everywhere. But if you are on transportation, wear a mask. Put on your mask as you enter a queue. If you feel like a sardine or livestock, wear your mask.

Everything's not going to come back though. I am not as optimistic on a timeline of full recovery. Disney could get back up to 75%-80% of pre-pandemic levels pretty quickly. But it will stall, before reaching 100%, and be a grind like post 9/11 was, only worse. This is going to leave a lot of entertainment and free experiences in deep freeze.

I have no issue with the masks as long as they're not mandated. Right now, even though the vast majority of Americans (likely 92%) do not have COVID, it's important to wear a mask because no one individual can be sure that they aren't asymptomatic carriers and there is no vaccine to prevent infection. When a highly effective vaccine is widely available, I will be 95% sure I don't have and can't transmit the virus - that coupled with the fact that it's highly unlikely I would have it in the first place gives me no reason to wear a mask.

It's going to be up to public and private facilities to decide what to do about mask-wearing. I'll go to the places that no longer require them, and I'm pretty sure I'll have company. If Disney decides to go above and beyond what's necessary with masks, we'll start looking into other places to vacation. Maybe we'll try Universal for the first time if their restrictions are lighter. Who knows? I do like the idea of requiring proof of vaccination - maybe they can give out wristbands.

 

[YorkshireT]

I’m from UK and can’t wait to get the vaccine. I’m hoping we certainly get back to our DVC next year- we have trips planned Easter (not sure that one will but hope so), Summer to Grand Californian and will be booking Christmas at WDW.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The UK starts vaccinating people next week. @marni1971 and @wdwmagic might get to WDW before I do

I actually think that sounds about right. Int’l flights may return in 2021 but the demand probably won’t be there until the second half of the year at the earliest.

The question is are @marni1971 or @wdwmagic in a care home already or a health care worker? If not, they be waiting.

 

[dreday3]

I hope buffets leave forever because...gross.

I hope people keep the habit of not standing on top of each other.

I hope people figure out that they should keep washing their hands!!!

I hope people use hand sanitizer on the regular at any theme park - I hope theme parks keep them readily available.

I hope people still stay home when they are sick.

I hope mask restrictions ease but people still feel comfortable to wear them if they choose.

I hope everyone who can, gets the vaccine. We will get them as soon as we are able.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 97 new reported deaths.