Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.

Instead of going to work, Dudley takes a readily available cheap rapid test and isolates. Results in less than 24 hours, less than 12 preferably.
Day 7: contact tracers look at days 4 and 5. All contacts isolate and take tests immediately.
Day 8: Cycle repeats for all positives, with their Day 5-7 contacts.

Obviously, this doesn’t work today. That doesn’t mean we give up on this method. It means we need to solve the issues so it can be this fast. It’s been 7 months, there’s no reason it cannot be done this fast if the problem was trying to be solved.

I agree with the current timeline of test need identification to test to result there’s no way to contact trace correctly. Combined with the unknown large community spread. That’s why we need to fix the things to reduce the time cycle and get community spread reduced to a manageable amount.

Dudley wasn’t caught before symptoms, but each successive execution of the test/trace/test cycle should catch cases earlier. If we’re not executing cycles faster than the virus spreads, we cannot get ahead of it.

 

[_caleb]

Contact tracing is useless once widespread community transmission starts.

Maybe "less useful?"

Certainly more difficult. But not impossible. And, as others have said, much easier if the public did a better job of complying with guidelines and utilizing technology to assist tracing.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I wanted to "laugh" at this post in the spirit of fun, but I'm afraid to use the emoji

I really don't understand the problem people have with this. I laugh at comments all the time (I just laughed at yours). There's a lot of funny stuff that gets posted. I know I make it a point to never be funny so no one will ever laugh at my comments. But it still happens, which means I must have been unintentionally funny and just have to try harder.

 

[GoofGoof]

Maybe "less useful?"

Certainly more difficult. But not impossible. And, as others have said, much easier if the public did a better job of complying with guidelines and utilizing technology to assist tracing.

Fair point. You can always trace family and direct contacts but you can’t do real contact tracing when community spread is rampant. I still remember back in March when the first cases in my county were lab community spread, meaning they couldn’t trace them back to a direct contact with a sick person. Things went downhill fast.

 

[_caleb]

Seriously, what would lead someone to create a puppet account to post from a certain idealogical perspective? I've always been the suspicious type on these boards, so obviously it seems strange to me. Some of us disagree here, and things sometimes get spirited (no pun intended!), but I don't understand the outright trolling.

Given past insinuations of deliberate manipulation for the purposes of influence, I'm curious if anyone sees a strategy being used here. If so, I feel like maybe it's not working?

 

[hopemax]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

Data researchers, and experienced contact tracers are good at pulling out signals from what the rest of us considers noise. Not all of these encounters are equal, we don’t have to treat them as if they are. I am not either of these, but what I would do is:

Tier 1: Test family, the friends they played football with, the friend at lunch, Close contacts at work.

Tier 2: everyone else at work, employees at Cheddars and Carrabbas

Tier 3: note times and locations for the rest, so if other people report the same location and time, a software program will scan, identify matches and look for community patterns.

Ideally, if a neighborhood is identified as a hot spot, then you can carpet bomb the neighborhood. Our problem is it’s everywhere so unless we can be Slovakia where they tested half the population in one day, we would have too many people to test.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It is not a concept. But its good to know you think something that was done over 100 years ago is somehow impossible.

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have value it needs to be done quickly.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Contact tracing has been used effectively for years to contain outbreaks of infectious diseases. Somehow this time around it got politicized and there’s a resistance to it like it’s some sort of evil plot. Just another sign of the times. Maybe we turn a corner soon...who knows.

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have value it needs to be done quickly.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I mean... my province has hired over 500 contact tracers and plans to hit 800. And apparently it’s been working quite well according to our Public Health Leaders.

 

[GoofGoof]

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have value it needs to be done quickly.

Nothing about this is easy. I don’t see that as a reason to throw our hands up and just say we can’t contain this so let’s just let it rip.

 

[danlb_2000]

Seriously, what would lead someone to create a puppet account to post from a certain idealogical perspective? I've always been the suspicious type on these boards, so obviously it seems strange to me. Some of us disagree here, and things sometimes get spirited (no pun intended!), but I don't understand the outright trolling.

Given past insinuations of deliberate manipulation for the purposes of influence, I'm curious if anyone sees a strategy being used here. If so, I feel like maybe it's not working?

Some people just want to see the world burn.

 

[_caleb]

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have value it needs to be done quickly.

You keep saying things that could have some truth, but aren't due to over-simplification.

Contact tracing is indeed expensive and time-consuming, and the data is certainly MORE valuable when its done quickly. But when you write it like this "for the data to have value..." (and then copy/ paste it again and again as a response), you spread misinformation.

This is particularly dangerous when contact tracing depends on the cooperation of the public. Bad information leads some (many!) to resist because "the data is useless," or "its an invasion of my privacy."

 

[hopemax]

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have value it needs to be done quickly.

If Target can identify pregnancies by what people buy, we can do so much more than what we are doing. The way retailers use AI, I have a hard time believing that given times and locations we can’t find places to start. The truth is there are too many interests that don’t want to know because of the closures and lockdowns that would result. Instead of targeted two-four weeks, they think they can obfuscate it to nothing, when in reality we spend months doing this.

 

[MaryJaneP]

I really do wish that digital tracing, or at least assistance, had bigger buy in and a national backing. That way, people that work across state lines could have one app that “talked” to their individual state offices. We have a fair number here that work for 2 weeks in ND energy production, and come home for a week to be with family. They shouldn’t have 2 apps working in independent silos, for example.

Do you think the populace would be comfortable with a nationally mandated digital tracing scheme? What about those without any digital devices? Hard to imagine in today's 'Murica'.

Does anyone think any of the strategies discussed: universal mask wearing, social distance, hand washing, group avoidance, contact tracing, even if there ever is a vaccine, will be 100% effective or will those strategies, all of them, used in combination, just significantly tamp down the infection rate?

WDW has tried so far, it seems somewhat premature to decide either it helps or not.

 

[GimpYancIent]

You keep saying things that could have some truth, but aren't due to over-simplification.

Contact tracing is indeed expensive and time-consuming, and the data is certainly MORE valuable when its done quickly. But when you write it like this "for the data to have value..." (and then copy/ paste it again and again as a response), you spread misinformation.

This is particularly dangerous when contact tracing depends on the cooperation of the public. Bad information leads some (many!) to resist because "the data is useless," or "its an invasion of my privacy."

Misuse of personal information has lead to the publics mistrust and subsequent resistance to data collection for the alleged contact tracing. Trust and credibility once lost are difficult to regain.

 

[GoofGoof]

Do you think the populace would be comfortable with a nationally mandated digital tracing scheme? What about those without any digital devices? Hard to imagine in today's 'Murica'.

Does anyone think any of the strategies discussed: universal mask wearing, social distance, hand washing, group avoidance, contact tracing, even if there ever is a vaccine, will be 100% effective or will those strategies, all of them, used in combination, just significantly tamp down the infection rate?

WDW has tried so far, it seems somewhat premature to decide either it helps or not.

I think people should embrace it. The case that had to be made is our choices were to remain in lockdown or embrace an outside the box method using technology to be able to do a lot more. If given the pure choice between stay at home orders like back in March/April or having everything open but having to participate in a digital tracing scheme most people would choose option B. Instead the powers to be chose option C which is the mess we have today.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Some people just want to see the world burn.

Medieval contact tracing!

 

[sullyinMT]

Do you think the populace would be comfortable with a nationally mandated digital tracing scheme? What about those without any digital devices? Hard to imagine in today's 'Murica'.

Does anyone think any of the strategies discussed: universal mask wearing, social distance, hand washing, group avoidance, contact tracing, even if there ever is a vaccine, will be 100% effective or will those strategies, all of them, used in combination, just significantly tamp down the infection rate?

WDW has tried so far, it seems somewhat premature to decide either it helps or not.

I think enough of the populace, given strong and targeted messaging as to how it could meaningfully help, would buy in. We let this jump the shark long ago by allowing misinformation campaigns the same credence as sound science.
It has been said before, and I’ll reiterate, people want to do the right thing and be part of the solution. If people much smarter than myself could put their heads together and build a message of solidarity through opening up digital handshakes, even 50-60% buy in would be better than the playing darts in the dark we’re doing now.

 

[twilight mitsuk]

At least Harry will mail Dudley his Christmas card

From hogwarts

 

[danlb_2000]

Do you think the populace would be comfortable with a nationally mandated digital tracing scheme? What about those without any digital devices? Hard to imagine in today's 'Murica'.

Does anyone think any of the strategies discussed: universal mask wearing, social distance, hand washing, group avoidance, contact tracing, even if there ever is a vaccine, will be 100% effective or will those strategies, all of them, used in combination, just significantly tamp down the infection rate?

WDW has tried so far, it seems somewhat premature to decide either it helps or not.

None of those strategies will be 100% effective, but as you say, in combination they can really help.