Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[SamusAranX]

Data researchers, and experienced contact tracers are good at pulling out signals from what the rest of us considers noise. Not all of these encounters are equal, we don’t have to treat them as if they are. I am not either of these, but what I would do is:

Tier 1: Test family, the friends they played football with, the friend at lunch, Close contacts at work.

Tier 2: everyone else at work, employees at Cheddars and Carrabbas

Tier 3: note times and locations for the rest, so if other people report the same location and time, a software program will scan, identify matches and look for community patterns.

Ideally, if a neighborhood is identified as a hot spot, then you can carpet bomb the neighborhood. Our problem is it’s everywhere so unless we can be Slovakia where they tested half the population in one day, we would have too many people to test.

Targeting helps, definitely.

I just, as i said before, and of the opinion that until cases are down low enough or as @GoofGoof has said, we embrace digital footprint identification (not full on GPS tracking), contract tracing is unfortunately not very effective. I mean just from that one scenario, were talking dozens of people because of Dudley and his family having work and school. Then you gotta target and trace the contacts of those contacts if someone is positive. If there were 500 hundred cases a day, definitely doable. 5,000? Doubtful. It would be limited in scope and effectiveness. Hopefully it catches some spread. unless each state hired thousands of people. but because of the economy, most states are facing budget shortfalls and will be making cuts, not hiring people.

 

[_caleb]

Misuse of personal information has lead to the publics mistrust and subsequent resistance to data collection for the alleged contact tracing. Trust and credibility once lost are difficult to regain.

What misuse of personal info are you referring to? (Not trying to debate, just trying to understand). Have there been reports of contact tracing info being abused or used for other purposes?

 

[sullyinMT]

What misuse of personal info are you referring to? (Not trying to debate, just trying to understand). Have there been reports of contact tracing info being abused or used for other purposes?

I won’t speak directly for @GimpYancIent here, but I read that as a general mistrust for Google, Twitter, FB, and other “giants.” Not specific to contact tracing. It is interesting that folks will turn on location services for calling an Uber, but then lose it when something this simple could really help because it isn’t “100%.” That’s where good marketing (propaganda by a better name) can change public opinion.

 

[GoofGoof]

Targeting helps, definitely.

I just, as i said before, and of the opinion that until cases are down low enough or as @GoofGoof has said, we embrace digital footprint identification (not full on GPS tracking), contract tracing is unfortunately not very effective. I mean just from that one scenario, were talking dozens of people because of Dudley and his family having work and school. Then you gotta target and trace the contacts of those contacts if someone is positive. If there were 500 hundred cases a day, definitely doable. 5,000? Doubtful. It would be limited in scope and effectiveness. Hopefully it catches some spread. unless each state hired thousands of people. but because of the economy, most states are facing budget shortfalls and will be making cuts, not hiring people.

I think it’s more about politics. Budget shortfalls can be easily solved with a federal program. We are spending trillions on Covid stuff including stimulus bills for the economy. We could have invested in this, but tracing requires more testing and also identifies more positive cases. If your political plan is to talk your way out of a pandemic and you want to pretend it’s not too bad the last thing you spend money on is something that uncovers more cases. Sad but true. We will never know for sure, but I believe there’s a good chance the economic benefit of containing the virus would have been far greater than the cost and that doesn’t even factor in people who died or have long lasting symptoms.

 

[_caleb]

until cases are down low enough or as @GoofGoof has said, we embrace digital footprint identification (not full on GPS tracking), contract tracing is unfortunately not very effective.

"Not as effective as it could be." Even data that comes in late can give public health officials and the general public some awareness of where and how the virus is spreading.

If all the people who went to a (maskless) rally received a serious notice explaining that they may have been exposed and should quarantine, it might help people understand how risky that behavior was (even in the info doesn't come in until a few weeks later).

 

[GoofGoof]

What misuse of personal info are you referring to? (Not trying to debate, just trying to understand). Have there been reports of contact tracing info being abused or used for other purposes?

None...only existed in social media circles where conspiracy theories are accepted as fact.

 

[sullyinMT]

I think it’s more about politics. Budget shortfalls can be easily solved with a federal program. We are spending trillions on Covid stuff including stimulus bills for the economy. We could have invested in this, but tracing requires more testing and also identifies more positive cases. If your political plan is to talk your way out of a pandemic and you want to pretend it’s not too bad the last thing you spend money on is something that uncovers more cases. Sad but true. We will never know for sure, but I believe there’s a good chance the economic benefit of containing the virus would have been far greater than the cost and that doesn’t even factor in people who died or have long lasting symptoms.

What’s also sad is the amount of misinformation about the rapid uncovering of cases. If they were isolated quickly enough, it could be “over” (controlled) much more quickly, in a handful of test/trace/isolate/trace cycles.

 

[_caleb]

I won’t speak directly for @GimpYancIent here, but I read that as a general mistrust for Google, Twitter, FB, and other “giants.” Not specific to contact tracing. It is interesting that folks will turn on location services for calling an Uber, but then lose it when something this simple could really help because it isn’t “100%.” That’s where good marketing (propaganda by a better name) can change public opinion.

Thanks. If this is what they meant, it would be due to disinformation and misinformation about how those apps work, what they do, and how they can be helpful. I do completely understand distrust of big tech companies, though- especially after years of them lying about what data is collected and what it's used for.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Can't get people to wear masks and some think digital contact tracing will be received better! What about the inevitable tracing of patient A to the local ***ty Bar. How is that gonna fly? Didn't this discussion already occur over the magic band at WDW tracing issue? What are the percentages of use of trackable magic bands?

 

[easyrowrdw]

Can't get people to wear masks and some think digital contact tracing will be received better! What about the inevitable tracing of patient A to the local ***ty Bar. How is that gonna fly? Didn't this discussion already occur over the magic band at WDW tracing issue? What are the percentages of use of trackable magic bands?

If it's an Empty Bar, then how did they catch Covid there?

 

[_caleb]

Can't get people to wear masks and some think digital contact tracing will be received better! What about the inevitable tracing of patient A to the local ***ty Bar. How is that gonna fly? Didn't this discussion already occur over the magic band at WDW tracing issue? What are the percentages of use of trackable magic bands?

Right. And this is why people need to understand how the tracing app works.

Also, it would be MUCH easier for Disney to assist contact tracers by using this same technology (Magic Bands/MDE app) if they had any interest in doing so.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Medieval contact tracing!View attachment 510255

Now I have Monty Python.... No one expects the Spanish Inquisition going through my head.

 

[hopemax]

Targeting helps, definitely.

I just, as i said before, and of the opinion that until cases are down low enough or as @GoofGoof has said, we embrace digital footprint identification (not full on GPS tracking), contract tracing is unfortunately not very effective. I mean just from that one scenario, were talking dozens of people because of Dudley and his family having work and school. Then you gotta target and trace the contacts of those contacts if someone is positive. If there were 500 hundred cases a day, definitely doable. 5,000? Doubtful. It would be limited in scope and effectiveness. Hopefully it catches some spread. unless each state hired thousands of people. but because of the economy, most states are facing budget shortfalls and will be making cuts, not hiring people.

Again, it's really hard to take all the hand-wringing about 5000 people, seriously when Slovakia tested 3.6 million people in 2 days.

 

[JoeCamel]

Now I have Monty Python.... No one expects the Spanish Inquisition going through my head.

Monty or mighty?

 

[MaryJaneP]

If it is an empty bar, then there would be no chance as there would not be any bartender, no dancer(s), and no other patrons. Why would it even be open. There reportedly have been drive-thru ***ty bars.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Monty or mighty?

Both work.

 

[GoofGoof]

Can't get people to wear masks and some think digital contact tracing will be received better! What about the inevitable tracing of patient A to the local ***ty Bar. How is that gonna fly? Didn't this discussion already occur over the magic band at WDW tracing issue? What are the percentages of use of trackable magic bands?

The app doesn’t work that way. Doesn‘t use GPS or tracking. It uses Bluetooth to collect a random number associated with anyone you come in contact with that also has the app. Then if one of those people tests positive the department of health flags their unique Id as positive and your phone is notified that you had contact with someone who tested positive and you receive instructions on where to go to get tested. You aren’t told who you had contact with or where so not even the user knows that info let alone a third party.

 

[DisneyTransport]

The app doesn’t work that way. Doesn‘t use GPS or tracking. It uses Bluetooth to collect a random number associated with anyone you come in contact with that also has the app. Then if one of those people tests positive the department of health flags their unique Id as positive and your phone is notified that you had contact with someone who tested positive and you receive instructions on where to go to get tested. You aren’t told who you had contact with or where so not even the user knows that info let alone a third party.

Still sounds invasive. That's why I always make sure to wear my tin foil hat when I leave my home! /s

 

[GoofGoof]

Still sounds invasive. That's why I always make sure to wear my tin foil hat when I leave my home! /s

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think the only way to truly get ahead of this (without a vaccine or waiting for it to run its course) is constant testing with fast results. That’s going to require the tests to be free, require the capacity to produce billions of tests a week, require something less intrusive than sticking a long q-tip up people’s noses, and most importantly require hundreds of new labs so that those tests can be processed in hours rather than days.

We‘ve faced much more dangerous viruses before, the main reason this one is so problematic is because most infected people dont even know they have it, this allows them to pass it along without ever knowing they were sick, even those who get symptoms will pass it for days before the first symptom shows. If it were a more dangerous virus it would be easier to deal with because we could easily identify sick people without a test.

Even with a 99% survival rate it can be more deadly than a more lethal virus simply based on the fact it’ll eventually find all of the 1% who can’t fight it if we can’t find a way to stop it.