Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member
I think the only way to truly get ahead of this (without a vaccine or waiting for it to run its course) is constant testing with fast results. That’s going to require the tests to be free, require the capacity to produce billions of tests a week, require something less intrusive than sticking a long q-tip up people’s noses, and most importantly require hundreds of new labs so that those tests can be processed in hours rather than days.

We‘ve faced much more dangerous viruses before, the main reason this one is so problematic is because most infected people dont even know they have it, this allows them to pass it along without ever knowing they were sick, even those who get symptoms will pass it for days before the first symptom shows. If it were a more dangerous virus it would be easier to deal with because we could easily identify sick people without a test.

Even with a 99% survival rate it can be more deadly than a more lethal virus simply based on the fact it’ll eventually find all of the 1% who can’t fight it if we can’t find a way to stop it.
I think that’s our plan B if a vaccine fails to pan out. People talk about what do we do if there is no vaccine, we can’t just keep things closed for years. What you laid out is a way to allow a lot more people to interact normally. It’s the definition of learning to live with the virus. I am hopeful that the saliva tests get better and cheaper over time and it could be possible everyone tests themselves frequently (daily?) if it comes to that.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
The app doesn’t work that way. Doesn‘t use GPS or tracking. It uses Bluetooth to collect a random number associated with anyone you come in contact with that also has the app. Then if one of those people tests positive the department of health flags their unique Id as positive and your phone is notified that you had contact with someone who tested positive and you receive instructions on where to go to get tested. You aren’t told who you had contact with or where so not even the user knows that info let alone a third party.

Yeah, that's what they want you to think. ;)

I all seriousness, I think a lot of people who have resistance to tracing will not trust in the explanation that the app isn't tracking you.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yeah, that's what they want you to think. ;)

I all seriousness, I think a lot of people who have resistance to tracing will not trust in the explanation that the app isn't tracking you.
True. In normal times I’d be hesitant to want to use something like that, but I was wiping my groceries down with disinfectant wipes, hoarding toilet paper and wearing a mask to visit with family...these ain’t normal times.

Right now in PA there are 410,825 registered users of the app and about 10M adults in the state so a little under 5% usage. Not exactly going to be effective with that low of use.
 

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
Again, it's really hard to take all the hand-wringing about 5000 people, seriously when Slovakia tested 3.6 million people in 2 days.

Not being snarky, did Slovakia use that data to trace? Or just try and get a handle of who was positive at a given moment?
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Not being snarky, did Slovakia use that data to trace? Or just try and get a handle of who was positive at a given moment?
I don’t know how strong their isolation enforcement is over there, but at the very least it allows them to find as many positives as possible, isolate them, and meaningfully start the process from there.
 

MaryJaneP

Well-Known Member
Is Slovakia the country that had "great success" in March in the first wave and then disaster (wahwahweewah) in second wave by relaxing all the restrictions they had previously used?
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Not being snarky, did Slovakia use that data to trace? Or just try and get a handle of who was positive at a given moment?
Well, with that strategy it's obviously mostly the second. But I assume that the contacts of the 38,359 people who tested positive will be monitored and theoretically retested in a couple days. If these people are clustered in regions, communities, workplaces then they can keep an eye on the communities that are within proximity. As @sullivan.kscott said, they have meaningful starting points. So the contact tracing aspects of this will be in the future, not the present.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member


Statement from DCL -

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_caleb

Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's what they want you to think. ;)

I all seriousness, I think a lot of people who have resistance to tracing will not trust in the explanation that the app isn't tracking you.
Agree. That's why I think we should pay people to opt in. Seriously. Incentivize participation (I've no idea how much money/tax credits might make a difference on a mass scale), but–as others have mentioned- people sell their identities for very little these days.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Agree. That's why I think we should pay people to opt in. Seriously. Incentivize participation (I've no idea how much money/tax credits might make a difference on a mass scale), but–as others have mentioned- people sell their identities for very little these days.
They probably just need business involvement. Download the app, check in, get a free whatever at Chick-Fil-A, Starbucks, McDonalds, the local Casino. Save 5% at the grocery store, Target, etc.
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
They probably just need business involvement. Download the app, check in, get a free whatever at Chick-Fil-A, Starbucks, McDonalds, the local Casino. Save 5% at the grocery store, Target, etc.
This is a good idea. Also, it would be great if we had trusted voices that could promote the use of the apps. But with everything so polemical and political these days, I'm not sure such a person/people even exist.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
If Target can identify pregnancies by what people buy, we can do so much more than what we are doing. The way retailers use AI, I have a hard time believing that given times and locations we can’t find places to start. The truth is there are too many interests that don’t want to know because of the closures and lockdowns that would result. Instead of targeted two-four weeks, they think they can obfuscate it to nothing, when in reality we spend months doing this.
I wonder how long Target, or rather the engineering team Target hired, took to develop the system, how long it took and how much data they needed to begin testing the system, and how many revisions the current systems had to go through to get it working.

If a development team working on a state of the art contact tracing system started in Feb 2020, they could possibly be beta testing right about now.
 

TikibirdLand

Well-Known Member
I wonder how long Target, or rather the engineering team Target hired, took to develop the system, how long it took and how much data they needed to begin testing the system, and how many revisions the current systems had to go through to get it working.

If a development team working on a state of the art contact tracing system started in Feb 2020, they could possibly be beta testing right about now.
And think of the number of ECVs and Mickey Waffles they could predict with a system like that!
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
I wonder how long Target, or rather the engineering team Target hired, took to develop the system, how long it took and how much data they needed to begin testing the system, and how many revisions the current systems had to go through to get it working.

If a development team working on a state of the art contact tracing system started in Feb 2020, they could possibly be beta testing right about now.
That would only be true if they were starting from scratch. There was no need to start from scratch.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
You keep saying things that could have some truth, but aren't due to over-simplification.

Contact tracing is indeed expensive and time-consuming, and the data is certainly MORE valuable when its done quickly. But when you write it like this "for the data to have value..." (and then copy/ paste it again and again as a response), you spread misinformation.

This is particularly dangerous when contact tracing depends on the cooperation of the public. Bad information leads some (many!) to resist because "the data is useless," or "its an invasion of my privacy."

I stand corrected...

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have MORE value it needs to be done quickly.

The longer it takes to collect, analyze and deliver the data, the LESS value it has..
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
I wonder how long Target, or rather the engineering team Target hired, took to develop the system, how long it took and how much data they needed to begin testing the system, and how many revisions the current systems had to go through to get it working.

If a development team working on a state of the art contact tracing system started in Feb 2020, they could possibly be beta testing right about now.
Also, Apple and Google partnered to develop the anonymous bluetooth tracing app. They started in April, and delivered it Sept. 2.
 

TikibirdLand

Well-Known Member
I stand corrected...

Contact tracing is a great idea but it’s just difficult even with today’s technology, that’s all I am saying. Everyone loves to say, contact tracing, contact tracing, easy to say but very expensive in resources, time and money, and for the data to have MORE value it needs to be done quickly.
I know... make the app auto magically provide the coupon if you're negative; If you're positive, offer free delivery.
 
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