Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

Just like a mask and distancing nothing works 100% but does that mean you just give up trying?
Reduce points of contact as much as possible, trace what you can, treat the rest.
I don't care where Dud got it I want to know where he was the last few days so I can alert as many of those people as possible to watch for symptoms and get tested.

 

[SamusAranX]

Just like a mask and distancing nothing works 100% but does that mean you just give up trying?
Reduce points of contact as much as possible, trace what you can, treat the rest.
I don't care where Dud got it I want to know where he was the last few days so I can alert as many of those people as possible to watch for symptoms and get tested.

Well the contact tracers do care where you got it from. For example, if it was Cheddar's they can then alert the business so its employees at least can be on notice. I didn't advocate for not trying, I was just saying its not a magical end all tool unfortunately. It's part of the tool bag tho

 

[danlb_2000]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

You are showing a worst case example. On the other end of the spectrum you have the person who sat at home for 10 days, expect for 1 day where he went to the supermarket. You can also at the multiple people's contacts and look for common things that might indicate a place where a lot of infections are happening.

There is no single tool that is perfect at stopping the spread of the virus, but a bunch of different tools used together can help slow the spread.

 

[sullyinMT]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

All of this makes it exceedingly difficult to do with old “pencil and paper” approaches. Especially with cases this high. @lazyboy97o is correct that this is why we’re asked to stay home as much as possible, work from home, keep to a small inner circle/bubble, use carry out and grocery delivery/curbside, etc etc etc.

While I’m not a big fan of “big tech/brother” tracking me in all aspects, they already are anyway, really. A national unlocking of BT “handshakes” would help every public health official in the country do an exponentially better job with this. Maybe not the geofencing, I’m not sold on selling myself out that much. But digital handshakes, I’m personally all in. And I’m libertarian and untrusting of government to my very core.

 

[_caleb]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

This is why the CDC sets a more specific definition of “contact” and “exposure,” so a few of the events in the scenario would not be counted.

Also, this is why (as @lazyboy97o mentions) it’s so important for people to willingly avoid more risky interactions—to make it easier to contact trace and track.

Nevertheless, in the scenario you describe, contact tracing can and should still be done. If more people got serious and official warnings from public health officials every time they had been at risk of exposure, maybe they’d understand that the virus is closer and more real than they realize.

 

[sullyinMT]

Very true, but Dudley had to go to work, had to go grocery shopping ,and his family had to go to school/work. Where he might have "messed up" is dining indoors and offering to make the starbucks run lol.

I tried to sign up on my Apple device to be alerted if I was near someone who tested positive; got a notification that its not available in my state. and good luck trying to get restaurants to do that, it would be bogged down in the courts cause "muh rights!!!", at least in Florida.

Regardless, unless cases were in the below 100 per day range in Florida at least, I don't see how contact tracing can work unless they hired massive amounts of people

It would take a new hire “army,” but there are enough unemployed that might take an unemployment “plus-up” to help out in the interim.

 

[Chi84]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

Someone needs to tell Dudley there's a pandemic and he should sit on his *** like the rest of us.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree that contract tracing has merit and good results, but I also concede that it difficult due to resources, logistics, and the nature of this virus. so it is limited in it's power.

I will give you this scenario:

Day 1: Dudley goes to Publix for a half hour, stops at Hobby Lobby and waits in line for 5 minutes, then is at home with his wife and two kids.
Day 2: Dudley eats at Cheddar's with his family, then is at home with his family.
Day 3: Dudley goes to work; he is wearing a mask but still is in close contact throughout the day with coworkers.
Day 4: Dudley goes to work, then goes to the park to play football with 3 friends.
Day 5: Dudley goes to work, and makes a Starbucks run and waits inside for 15 minutes for ten iced mocha lattes.
Day 6: Dudley feels a bit more tired then normal, but goes to work.
Day 7: Dudley goes to work, then goes home, nothing other then that.
Day 8: Dudley decides to meet up for lunch with a friend. They go to eat at Carrabba's.
Day 9: Dudley wakes up with cold like symptoms. He also notices his taste decreasing.
Day 10: Dudley goes for testing
Day 11-12: Dudley gets results 2 days later. In the meantime he stayed home. He is positive.

See the problem now? Because of how long this virus can incubate and shed asymptomatically, look at the myriads of people Dudley interacted with; even if a contact tracer contacts him, he has to remember who was at work, football, etc, then remember everywhere he was shopping; if his family is positive, the kids now need to inform the schools, the buses, and their friends, the wife has to remember her interactions. Oh, and did Starbucks, Cheddars, and Carrabba's take down their patrons info? Doubtful. And now you also have to hope you identify enough people positive to even know WHERE Dudley got it (which explains the reason why it's incredibly difficult to trace an "outbreak" to Disney World right now). Oh and then those people Dudley does remember, need to potentially get tested and remember who they were around! And now you need multiple contact tracers to have any hope of sorting this all out.

Now amplify that scenario to hundreds of thousands of people, especially the not so smart ones going to crowded bars, public protests, bike rallies, big beach parties and so on. Aye carumba! On a small scale, yes, contact tracing works. But right now with case numbers so high, it isn't gonna work.

If only we all carried around around in our pockets devices with more computing power than the first super computers that were the size of a building. Someone could develop an app for those devices that could utilize that power and make contact tracing seamless. We have the technology and the ability to do it, we don’t have the will. Mainly because people don’t think for themselves, they buy into spoon fed lines. Too many people have replaced intelligent thought with memes and tweets. Sad but true.

As far as the scenario above goes, if community spread is held low enough you trace all the contacts even though there are a lot. Other countries are doing it, some using technology and some the old fashioned way. People should not be at bike rallies and at big parties and at crowded bars and at protests. I know you can’t stop all of it, but there’s a reason why people are being told not to do it and it has nothing to do with politics or an election.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Someone needs to tell Dudley there's a pandemic and he should sit on his *** like the rest of us.

Someone told Dudley he should “live his life.”

 

[danlb_2000]

Very true, but Dudley had to go to work, had to go grocery shopping ,and his family had to go to school/work. Where he might have "messed up" is dining indoors and offering to make the starbucks run lol.

I tried to sign up on my Apple device to be alerted if I was near someone who tested positive; got a notification that its not available in my state. and good luck trying to get restaurants to do that, it would be bogged down in the courts cause "muh rights!!!", at least in Florida.

Regardless, unless cases were in the below 100 per day range in Florida at least, I don't see how contact tracing can work unless they hired massive amounts of people

Depends what you mean by "work". If you mean totally stop all infections, then you are correct it won't work. If it means identifying some people who are infected before they can spread it, then it will work.

 

[Figgy1]

Someone told Dudley he should “live his life.”

At least Harry will mail Dudley his Christmas card

 

[GoofGoof]

Very true, but Dudley had to go to work, had to go grocery shopping ,and his family had to go to school/work. Where he might have "messed up" is dining indoors and offering to make the starbucks run lol.

I tried to sign up on my Apple device to be alerted if I was near someone who tested positive; got a notification that its not available in my state. and good luck trying to get restaurants to do that, it would be bogged down in the courts cause "muh rights!!!", at least in Florida.

Regardless, unless cases were in the below 100 per day range in Florida at least, I don't see how contact tracing can work unless they hired massive amounts of people

I have the PA app on my phone, unfortunately it has less than 1M users so not a great percentage of use. Could have been a game changer on contact tracing...but instead we face new lockdowns. Same folks that value their privacy have 27 other apps that actually track their location and their activity.

 

[danlb_2000]

It would take a new hire “army,” but there are enough unemployed that might take an unemployment “plus-up” to help out in the interim.

In WWII we "hired" 10 million people in the US to be part of an army.

 

[_caleb]

Someone needs to tell Dudley there's a pandemic and he should sit on his *** like the rest of us.

[Full disclosure] This is the ONLY reason I engage on this thread: to keep the hoaxers and deniers home hateposting with me rather than out spreading the virus!

 

[danlb_2000]

If only we all carried around around in our pockets devices with more computing power than the first super computers that were the size of a building. Someone could develop an app for those devices that could utilize that power and make contact tracing seamless. We have the technology and the ability to do it, we don’t have the will. Mainly because people don’t think for themselves, they buy into spoon fed lines. Too many people have replaced intelligent thought with memes and tweets. Sad but true.

As far as the scenario above goes, if community spread is held low enough you trace all the contacts even though there are a lot. Other countries are doing it, some using technology and some the old fashioned way. People should not be at bike rallies and at big parties and at crowded bars and at protests. I know you can’t stop all of it, but there’s a reason why people are being told not to do it and it has nothing to do with politics or an election.

You are crazy if you think I would allow the government track me with an app. Now excuse me while I go post the exact details of my day on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

 

[SamusAranX]

I can't respond to every post, but I posted that to help show the limits; because, not necessarily in this thread, but I think some people think it's the "end all be all".

On the other hand its merits and value are there, especially if cases are low enough. But I feel as of now that horse left the gate; how do you contact trace effectively enough with a few thousand cases a day? so now the other tools are higher on the totem pole: mask usage, avoiding high risk scenarios, no big gatherings etc, then if those are applied the tracing enters the picture again as a highly effective tool.

This also where testing turnaround time is crucial; if I am waiting only one day, or get on the spot, its easier for me to self-trace and or remember contacts when interviewed. But if I am waiting 2-3 days, especially knowing the virus can last so long in my system prior to symptoms, it gets more difficult. You may say, just start informing people once symptoms arise; ok, but what if you're negative and had the flu, allergies, etc? You just alerted people who may go get tested and actually didn't need to and bog down the testing cycle more. A vicious cycle

 

[sullyinMT]

I can't respond to every post, but I posted that to help show the limits; because, not necessarily in this thread, but I think some people think it's the "end all be all".

On the other hand its merits and value are there, especially if cases are low enough. But I feel as of now that horse left the gate; how do you contact trace effectively enough with a few thousand cases a day? so now the other tools are higher on the totem pole: mask usage, avoiding high risk scenarios, no big gatherings etc, then if those are applied the tracing enters the picture again as a highly effective tool.

I really do wish that digital tracing, or at least assistance, had bigger buy in and a national backing. That way, people that work across state lines could have one app that “talked” to their individual state offices. We have a fair number here that work for 2 weeks in ND energy production, and come home for a week to be with family. They shouldn’t have 2 apps working in independent silos, for example.

 

[GoofGoof]

I can't respond to every post, but I posted that to help show the limits; because, not necessarily in this thread, but I think some people think it's the "end all be all".

On the other hand its merits and value are there, especially if cases are low enough. But I feel as of now that horse left the gate; how do you contact trace effectively enough with a few thousand cases a day? so now the other tools are higher on the totem pole: mask usage, avoiding high risk scenarios, no big gatherings etc, then if those are applied the tracing enters the picture again as a highly effective tool.

Contact tracing is useless once widespread community transmission starts. The whole point of the original lockdowns was to get community spread under control and have the mechanisms in place to open safely. We just got impatient and jumped the gun. Go back to the beginning of the thread and you can see posts from April saying while we are on lockdown we need to ramp up testing (which we did eventually, but still not enough) and tracing. There was no federal effort to have a national plan and many states dropped the ball.

Your example shows how difficult it can be to stop the spread, however, if in an extreme example Dudley was tested daily even without symptoms he would have found out he was positive sooner and then his contacts would have been contacted sooner. Remember if a positive person infects one or less additional people on average the spread slows. You aren’t trying to catch everyone, just enough to get below 1. If you look at some other countries or domestically some college campuses or the NBA bubble or certain businesses there has been success with frequent testing and tracing. It’s possible but we needed to focus all of our resources on it. In order to do that you need extreme organization and a desire to admit the virus is real and dangerous. We tried to wish it away with smoke and mirrors. The virus wasn’t fooled.

 

[Chi84]

Someone told Dudley he should “live his life.”

I wanted to "laugh" at this post in the spirit of fun, but I'm afraid to use the emoji

 

[GoofGoof]

I wanted to "laugh" at this post in the spirit of fun, but I'm afraid to use the emoji

I keep picturing the chubby kid from Harry Potter complaining he only got 36 presents