Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[oceanbreeze77]

Damn, I thought that one had a lot of promise.

It still does, if they can find a drug match for this one that takes care of what remdesivir doesn't take care of, we hopefully have a winning combination.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Numbers are out - there were 94 new reported deaths.

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I really feel like Floridas consistent high death count should be a bigger story.

 

[Disstevefan1]

We will never know how many folks actually died from COVID. And there will be folks who will never believe the number anyway, heck, there are folks who actually believe we did not go to the moon and that’s easy to prove.

 

[SamusAranX]

i mean, no, that's not credible evidence that it's not being inflated (and when i say inflated, i mean crudely classified and counted). in the renal failure situation, what you're driving at is "pull ahead" deaths, which sure...that's fair. undoubtedly, there are vast number of people in the very frail category that died in march and april that may would have instead died in july or august. but that doesn't make COVID the driving cause of death. as far as those three week increase in heart disease deaths, it's very likely that those deaths are lockdown/delay of care deaths; people that weren't going to the hospital with chest pains that died at home. that's not a COVID death. that's a bad public policy death. that's a panic death.

what i'm simply saying is this: there's nuance, and it's being lost by hastily ascribing all excess deaths to COVID.

There's nothing wrong with nuance, but some people take it the nth degree and claim COVID doesn't even exist. COVID isn't the zombie apocalypse, but it's nothing to sneeze at either. No pun intended.

 

[baymenxpac]

There's nothing wrong with nuance, but some people take it the nth degree and claim COVID doesn't even exist. COVID isn't the zombie apocalypse, but it's nothing to sneeze at either. No pun intended.

i agree!

like most things in this country, it's a false dichotomy. there's no reason anyone looking to bring insight and nuance into the discussion should be shouted down by being called a "covidiot," or a "granny killer," or whatever.

but we have to acknowledge that the global position on COVID-19 is outdated and based on (fault) CFR assumptions from almost a year ago, which DOES treat it like a zombie apocalypse. as we sought to understand, re-group, and aligned our resources, i don't think anyone had any problem with "slow the spread." now, we've lost our way, and it doesn't help that not only is this the most politicized disease of all time, it's also one of the most stigmatized as well.

the WHO estimated 750 million cases worldwide. like you said in an early post, this will be endemic. that's the end game. and as a result, we have to understand where we have gone wrong in our response so we don't make similar mistakes in the future. part of that is how we count.

 

[GimpYancIent]

If it's not credible evidence, then what is the explanation for the increase coinciding with the spread of the pandemic here? And how do you explain the JAMA study attributing 2/3 of the excess deaths (as of August 1) to COVID-19? There are 2 possibilities to explain the large number of excess deaths - either there is a widespread conspiracy to falsely attribute deaths to COVID-19 at the same time that there is an otherwise unexplained surge of deaths in this country OR the COVID-19 death totals are accurate. As for saying someone who died of COVID-19 in March or April "may have" died in July or August instead? That completely ignores that every single week since March 28 has had excess deaths and that if these people had other ailments that would have caused their imminent death then they are likely already factored into the "expected deaths" figure. At some point, you have to recognize that there has yet to be even a single week where it can be said, "Wow, way fewer people died than expected!" If there was some significant number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 that were really just people who were about to die soon anyway, then there would eventually be a period where we fall way below the expected deaths over the course of weeks or months.

Also, people in the northeast weren't prohibited from going to the hospital or doctor for medical treatment due to lockdowns. It's unfortunate that people were afraid to go to the ER because of the COVID-19 surge in the area at that time, but no policy caused that. There was no executive order forbidding people from going to the hospital. If anything, locking down when we did brought an end to those situations as people felt safer seeking medical attention again. I also never claimed they were COVID deaths. I specifically stated that they were not COVID-19 deaths. They fall in the 33% of excess deaths not caused by COVID-19 infections.

Rehashing the numbers of dead does not really accomplish anything but give ammunition to the fear mongers. I am more interested in the massive numbers of people that have contracted this disease and RESOLVED, RECOVERED as in GOT BETTER. I am interested in how those numbers can be increased. What can be done to prevent people from succumbing to this disease, yes, increase those numbers. The greater the numbers of people overcoming COVID19 the lower the death numbers associate with COVID19. Now that is a conversation worth having.

 

[lazyboy97o]

We will never know how many folks actually died from COVID. And there will be folks who will never believe the number anyway, heck, there are folks who actually believe we did not go to the moon and that’s easy to prove.

Of course we will not know the exact number, that is why most figures regarding deaths attributed to a disease a given in ranges. What we do know is that in less than a year it has become the third leading cause of death in the United States, behind only heart disease and cancer, each of which are groups with multiple causes and not a single disease with a single cause. I’m guessing it is the most deadly communicable disease in the United States.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Rehashing the numbers of dead does not really accomplish anything but give ammunition to the fear mongers. I am more interested in the massive numbers of people that have contracted this disease and RESOLVED, RECOVERED as in GOT BETTER. I am interested in how those numbers can be increased. What can be done to prevent people from succumbing to this disease, yes, increase those numbers. The greater the numbers of people overcoming COVID19 the lower the death numbers associate with COVID19. Now that is a conversation worth having.

Of course finding a treatment or a vaccine is important. I don't think anyone would dispute that. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't also respond to false conspiracy theories that could lead to people not taking the virus seriously and result in more cases.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Of course we will not know the exact number, that is why most figures regarding deaths attributed to a disease a given in ranges. What we do know is that in less than a year it has become the third leading cause of death in the United States, behind only heart disease and cancer, each of which are groups with multiple causes and not a single disease with a single cause. I’m guessing it is the most deadly communicable disease in the United States.

You guess an awful lot.

 

[Tink242424]

If the number of COVID-19 deaths are inflated then how do you explain the excess deaths every week since late-March? The CDC chart I linked to yesterday should be enough to end any suspicion of "inflated numbers."

I think some people in this thread have reading comprehension issues.

I don't think the OP and myself have said anything to imply COVID deaths aren't happening or that the actual death numbers are low for COVID. What we have REPEATEDLY said is that there are SOME (un-quantifiable number) additional deaths that aren't truly caused by COVID. I doubt it would be more than 10% of the actual number and most probably smaller than 10%.

The problem is that because we can't quantify the number we truly don't know. Maybe it is 25% of the currently reported number or maybe it is .5%? We should all be concerned that we don't have the true numbers and hope that at some point it is truly figured out.

 

[GoofGoof]

Rehashing the numbers of dead does not really accomplish anything but give ammunition to the fear mongers. I am more interested in the massive numbers of people that have contracted this disease and RESOLVED, RECOVERED as in GOT BETTER. I am interested in how those numbers can be increased. What can be done to prevent people from succumbing to this disease, yes, increase those numbers. The greater the numbers of people overcoming COVID19 the lower the death numbers associate with COVID19. Now that is a conversation worth having.

I don’t disagree with this, except I don’t think the fear mongers are the ones bringing it up most frequently. There are certainly plenty of articles written that imply Covid deaths are understated, but the vast majority of the talk around deaths comes from the “Covid denier” crowd looking to invalidate the response to the pandemic. If deaths are way lower than we are all over reacting, etc, etc... I agree with your sentiment that it’s better to focus on going forward what can and needs to be done to decrease overall deaths from Covid through advances in treatment as well as through a reduction of overall cases. A statistic that’s 100% fact and can‘t really be challenged...100% of the people who never got Covid didn’t die from Covid.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I think some people in this thread have reading comprehension issues.

I don't think the OP and myself have said anything to imply COVID deaths aren't happening or that the actual death numbers are low for COVID. What we have REPEATEDLY said is that there are SOME (un-quantifiable number) additional deaths that aren't truly caused by COVID. I doubt it would be more than 10% of the actual number and most probably smaller than 10%.

The problem is that because we can't quantify the number we truly don't know. Maybe it is 25% of the currently reported number or maybe it is .5%? We should all be concerned that we don't have the true numbers and hope that at some point it is truly figured out.

The numbers don’t matter. You’re still claiming there is a conspiracy. Even 10% is 20,000 cases of fraud and malpractice for some undefined benefit to the individuals engaged in this coordinated criminal activity. Nobody with any sense thinks the exact number is a true exact number, but they’re not going to get worked up over slight discrepancies because the reason you are being it up is clear, it’s another means to try and cast doubt on the severity of the pandemic.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think some people in this thread have reading comprehension issues.

I don't think the OP and myself have said anything to imply COVID deaths aren't happening or that the actual death numbers are low for COVID. What we have REPEATEDLY said is that there are SOME (un-quantifiable number) additional deaths that aren't truly caused by COVID. I doubt it would be more than 10% of the actual number and most probably smaller than 10%.

The problem is that because we can't quantify the number we truly don't know. Maybe it is 25% of the currently reported number or maybe it is .5%? We should all be concerned that we don't have the true numbers and hope that at some point it is truly figured out.

The number of deaths that are over stated could be 10% and it could be -10% as well if they are actually understated. We don’t really know and never will. That’s common for any communicable disease. There’s inconsistencies in reporting and interpretation. That’s common always. That’s why the H1N1 pandemic has a range of deaths worldwide instead of 1 number. There’s a big difference between not knowing the exact number of deaths and what was implied by several posters here (and by the guys in the article posted that started all this) that doctors in hospitals are intentionally overstating Covid deaths so the hospitals make more money and some people even saying they know people who have confirmed this is happening. I don’t disagree that we probably don’t know the true number of Covid deaths, I am very skeptical that there’s some conspiracy happening across the board that’s inflating them.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I think some people in this thread have reading comprehension issues.

And there it is! Are you sure you don't have a twin sister around these parts? I've never seen you both in the same room but that doesn't mean it isn't true. <insert laughter>

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

The number of deaths that are over stated could be 10% and it could be -10% as well if they are actually understated. We don’t really know and never will. That’s common for any communicable disease. There’s inconsistencies in reporting and interpretation. That’s common always. That’s why the H1N1 pandemic has a range of deaths worldwide instead of 1 number. There’s a big difference between not knowing the exact number of deaths and what was implied by several posters here (and by the guys in the article posted that started all this) that doctors in hospitals are intentionally overstating Covid deaths so the hospitals make more money and some people even saying they know people who have confirmed this is happening. I don’t disagree that we probably don’t know the true number of Covid deaths, I am very skeptical that there’s some conspiracy happening across the board that’s inflating them.

I know this is not your view point, but this conspiracy boggles my mind. You know how hard it is to get my insurance to pay for anything? Why would insurance companies willingly be scammed by hospitals without utilizing their army of lawyers?

 

[DisneyCane]

The number is more about understanding where spread is occurring not just how prevalent spread is. The low number at the University of Miami means that for the population of people at the University of Miami there is a high understanding of where spread is occurring. That they know who is infected and are able to take steps to isolate those people and work to contain the spread. Which seems kind of obvious if they're testing everyone every two weeks, they'll find infected people faster.

The University of Miami is a subset of the population of Miami-Dade County. The higher number for Miami-Dade County in general means there's less understanding of where spread is occurring across the larger expanded population that's not overlapping with the university. The lower understanding means there is less ability to isolate infected people and less ability to contain community spread.

I don't think you can take the University of Miami number and use it to extrapolate to all of Miami-Dade County just because the have more data points. That's kind of the point, without the data points, the same actions cannot be taken with the larger group.

For example, a person that only interacts with people at the university is less likely to come in contact with an infected person because infected people are identified and isolated quickly. Presumably, they're doing good contact tracing on positives not just waiting for the next testing cycle. It's not impossible to come in contact, there's still spread before cases are found and it's not a bubble there's still people that interact outside of the university.

While a person that only interacts with people not at the university is more likely to come in contact with an infected person because there's less knowledge of who is infected and hence less isolation.

The University of Miami isn't operating as a bubble. The testing includes both students living on campus and those who don't. They are also testing all faculty and staff, almost all of which live off campus.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I know this is not your view point, but this conspiracy boggles my mind. You know how hard it is to get my insurance to pay for anything? Why would insurance companies willingly be scammed by hospitals without utilizing their army of lawyers?

And that isn't even mentioning the medical reviewers who work for the insurance companies, who actually are physicians themselves.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I really feel like Floridas consistent high death count should be a bigger story.

Over 20% of Florida's population is over the age of 65. The way this virus works its not surprising to me.

 

[Tink242424]

The numbers don’t matter. You’re still claiming there is a conspiracy. Even 10% is 20,000 cases of fraud and malpractice for some undefined benefit to the individuals engaged in this coordinated criminal activity. Nobody with any sense thinks the exact number is a true exact number, but they’re not going to get worked up over slight discrepancies because the reason you are being it up is clear, it’s another means to try and cast doubt on the severity of the pandemic.

Umm, I never said conspiracy. I said follow the money. If you provide an incentive for something it most likely will be done. And no, I'm not saying the doctor is lying. What I'm saying is that the truth is being obscured since maybe the patient didn't die as a result of COVID but had a COVID infection that was then listed on the death certificate and included in a death FROM COVID.

Again, it doesn't have to be a conspiracy but when you have a lot of half truths being reported to the public it makes it hard to accept anything that is being reported. As a society we should be concerned about this.

And no where did I mention that this pandemic is not severe. As I mentioned previously I have had COVID and have long term effects. Nothing that I can't live through but if it never resolves I will be uncomfortable the rest of my life.

You can question data and still think the pandemic is real. Stop trying to push your narrative of conspiracy theories and COVID deniers. It isn't a good look.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I think some people in this thread have reading comprehension issues.

I don't think the OP and myself have said anything to imply COVID deaths aren't happening or that the actual death numbers are low for COVID. What we have REPEATEDLY said is that there are SOME (un-quantifiable number) additional deaths that aren't truly caused by COVID. I doubt it would be more than 10% of the actual number and most probably smaller than 10%.

The problem is that because we can't quantify the number we truly don't know. Maybe it is 25% of the currently reported number or maybe it is .5%? We should all be concerned that we don't have the true numbers and hope that at some point it is truly figured out.

The failure to read is yours...

I'm not saying that EVERY excess death is due to COVID, but the vast majority of them are (67% through August 1, according to a JAMA study - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761) and that's why the curve aligns so well with the initial spike in places like NY and NJ and subsequent spikes in places like FL. Also, in your example of someone dying from renal failure 20 days after a positive test, it's entirely possible or even likely that COVID-19 was the cause of the renal failure. If you mean that they already had the problem prior to contracting COVID-19, then it's still a possibility that the virus sped up the process - but it's also possible that this is a person who would fall under "expected deaths" calculations, since the CDC does take into account the typical number of deaths from various causes when determining how many deaths are expected. According to that JAMA article, there was a 3-week increase in expected deaths from heart disease (week ending 3/21 through the week ending 4/11) that coincided with the initial surge in the northeast. There was also an increase in deaths among dementia/Alzheimer's patients that coincided with the surge in FL (week ending 6/6 through week ending 7/25). Outside of that, there has been no statistically significant occurrence of excess deaths from any other causes.

In an interesting note, the authors state that excess deaths have been spread out longer in states that reopened earlier. As a comparison, I looked at the CDC charts for NJ and FL. NJ had excess deaths every week from the week ending 3/21 through the week ending 6/27. FL has had excess deaths every week from the week ending 4/18 through 9/26 (the most recent week listed is the week ended 10/3 and they state that recent weeks are incomplete due to delays in reporting).

In any event, there is no credible evidence that the death count is being inflated - especially intentionally - and credible evidence to suggest that it is NOT being inflated.