Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

Everyone's been so proud of Europe. What happened?

Most of Europe is still doing much better than us per capita. That they are alarmed at recent rises while FL considers re-opening bars speaks volumes on the differences in priorities.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Jenny72]

This is yet another case where we could do a lot better if we didn't stake out hostile positions but rather realized that there is a fair amount of common ground where we can agree. I wish leaders would take this stance rather than push narratives that emphasize black and white approaches. I mean, in the end we all basically want the same thing.

If we just throw up our hands and give up then it's a bit like eating four cookies and then figuring we might as well eat the whole box. But those two things are not the same. Living with the virus can mean living with masks, restrictions on activities, and so on. This is a chance for humans to be creative: distanced concerts, walking characters at Disney, outdoor classrooms.

The key is to accept what is real, even when it's painful. This virus is devastating to a lot of people, even those who don't die. But it also has characteristics that make it virtually impossible to contain. We also have to accept so many unknowns regarding how long immunity lasts, what long-term effects there could be, and more. It's no wonder we're all cracking up. Humans are not good at this sort of thing, and our current social climate is pulling us away from things that would help us cope.

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is yet another case where we could do a lot better if we didn't stake out hostile positions but rather realized that there is a fair amount of common ground where we can agree. I wish leaders would take this stance rather than push narratives that emphasize black and white approaches. I mean, in the end we all basically want the same thing.

If we just throw up our hands and give up then it's a bit like eating four cookies and then figuring we might as well eat the whole box. But those two things are not the same. Living with the virus can mean living with masks, restrictions on activities, and so on. This is a chance for humans to be creative: distanced concerts, walking characters at Disney, outdoor classrooms.

The key is to accept what is real, even when it's painful. This virus is devastating to a lot of people, even those who don't die. But it also has characteristics that make it virtually impossible to contain. We also have to accept so many unknowns regarding how long immunity lasts, what long-term effects there could be, and more. It's no wonder we're all cracking up. Humans are not good at this sort of thing, and our current social climate is pulling us away from things that would help us cope.

This. Co-signed.

 

[GoofGoof]

Some grim projections on international travel:

International travel could take until 2024 to recover from COVID-19

The IATA predicts airlines will lose $84 billion this year and international travel won't return to pre pandemic levels until 2024.

www.yahoo.com

I do not think the International travel to WDW will take nearly that long to fully recover, but it will take some time.

 

[hopemax]

Ah, Texas.

Gov. Abbot just announced that in regions where less than 15% of hospitalizations are COVID-19 patients, a lot of places can open at 75% capacity, starting Monday. This means that 19 of the 22 hospital regions qualify. Bars are still closed, thankfully. Nursing home visitations can start later in the week.

Most Texas businesses expand to 75% capacity starting today

The increased capacity doesn't include some parts of the state where COVID-19 hospitalization rates remain high.

abc13.com

Me:

Additional Texas news from yesterday. The Texas Tribune reported that analysis of this spring & summer numbers reveal the situation was worse than what was disclosed. When the state started reopening in May, the state reported a positivity of 5.84%. New analysis: 8.4%. When the bars were closed on June 26, reported: 13.7%, new analysis: 18.5%

Share of positive COVID-19 cases as Texas reopened was higher than originally reported, new state calculations show

Public health experts say discrepancies in key metrics, such as the positivity rate, made it difficult for officials to make informed policy decisions.

www.texastribune.org

 

[Parker in NYC]

Ah, Texas.

Gov. Abbot just announced that in regions where less than 15% of hospitalizations are COVID-19 patients, a lot of places can open at 75% capacity, starting Monday. This means that 19 of the 22 hospital regions qualify. Bars are still closed, thankfully. Nursing home visitations can start later in the week.

Most Texas businesses expand to 75% capacity starting today

The increased capacity doesn't include some parts of the state where COVID-19 hospitalization rates remain high.

abc13.com

Me:

Nothing surprises me anymore. I wish it did, but I paid the bill months ago.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Ah, Texas.

Gov. Abbot just announced that in regions where less than 15% of hospitalizations are COVID-19 patients, a lot of places can open at 75% capacity, starting Monday. This means that 19 of the 22 hospital regions qualify. Bars are still closed, thankfully. Nursing home visitations can start later in the week.

Most Texas businesses expand to 75% capacity starting today

The increased capacity doesn't include some parts of the state where COVID-19 hospitalization rates remain high.

abc13.com

Me:

Additional Texas news from yesterday. The Texas Tribune reported that analysis of this spring & summer numbers reveal the situation was worse than what was disclosed. When the state started reopening in May, the state reported a positivity of 5.84%. New analysis: 8.4%. When the bars were closed on June 26, reported: 13.7%, new analysis: 18.5%

Share of positive COVID-19 cases as Texas reopened was higher than originally reported, new state calculations show

Public health experts say discrepancies in key metrics, such as the positivity rate, made it difficult for officials to make informed policy decisions.

www.texastribune.org

The new metric: As long as there's enough beds to die in, we're good.

 

[Andrew C]

The new metric: As long as there's enough beds to die in, we're good.

That’s not what’s going on here.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in November which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3, but then only for emergency use and workers. More fully ready in Jan/Feb.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started, then stalled due to a case of severe spinal inflammation. Restarted in UK.​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

 

[Angelo721]

The new metric: As long as there's enough beds to die in, we're good.

Lets assume you are the President of the world, then what metric do you use to track this?

For months we have been told we are looking to stop the spread to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. I just did a search and could not find one place where hospitals are overrun. So we did that, yet California is still closed.

Dude, just pick a metric and use that. We can't keep on changing things to suit our own personal beliefs.

And the mask thing, it is simple. We have been lied to. Everyone wants to wear masks, but when the goal posts move on Covid weekly, and things are not opening, people get upset and want to know the truth. But we never get the truth.

 

[Andrew C]

Ah, Texas.

Gov. Abbot just announced that in regions where less than 15% of hospitalizations are COVID-19 patients, a lot of places can open at 75% capacity, starting Monday. This means that 19 of the 22 hospital regions qualify. Bars are still closed, thankfully. Nursing home visitations can start later in the week.

Most Texas businesses expand to 75% capacity starting today

The increased capacity doesn't include some parts of the state where COVID-19 hospitalization rates remain high.

abc13.com

Me:

Additional Texas news from yesterday. The Texas Tribune reported that analysis of this spring & summer numbers reveal the situation was worse than what was disclosed. When the state started reopening in May, the state reported a positivity of 5.84%. New analysis: 8.4%. When the bars were closed on June 26, reported: 13.7%, new analysis: 18.5%

Share of positive COVID-19 cases as Texas reopened was higher than originally reported, new state calculations show

Public health experts say discrepancies in key metrics, such as the positivity rate, made it difficult for officials to make informed policy decisions.

www.texastribune.org

This is a relatively small adjustment but could go a long way in helping these businesses. They have already been running at 50% occupancy for quite some time. So they can bump up to 75% in targeted areas. They still have to maintain social distancing requirements such as spacing, masks, etc. Bars remain closed (They need to figure this out eventually).

Hospitalizations levels are correlated to cases and spreading. It’s not random.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Lets assume you are the President of the world, then what metric do you use to track this?

For months we have been told we are looking to stop the spread to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. I just did a search and could not find one place where hospitals are overrun. So we did that, yet California is still closed.

Dude, just pick a metric and use that. We can't keep on changing things to suit our own personal beliefs.

And the mask thing, it is simple. We have been lied to. Everyone wants to wear masks, but when the goal posts move on Covid weekly, and things are not opening, people get upset and want to know the truth. But we never get the truth.

It's this new "well our hospital beds are more free, so, let's open up" that's the new metric thrown into the mix. I wouldn't be surprised if it's because they couldn't hit the other established metrics of decreasing cases and positivity over the course of two weeks (before moving onto a new phase) which, by the way, was the original metric put out by the Feds that almost all states accepted as their course of action.

Also, yeah, you don't want beds and ICU spots overwhelmed, but you don't want high level of deaths or illnesses simply because you added bed/ICU capacity. That just leads to a plateauing of stats... a steady-state of illnesses and death rather than trying to minimize them as much as possible.

 

[GoofGoof]

And the mask thing, it is simple. We have been lied to. Everyone wants to wear masks, but when the goal posts move on Covid weekly, and things are not opening, people get upset and want to know the truth. But we never get the truth.

The mask thing is very simple. Wear a mask when in public and/or when interacting with people outside of your immediate family. Easy, simple instructions. Don’t worry about the political talking points and back and forth on who said what or who changed their mind. If it turns out masks do absolutely nothing and don’t help then the worst thing that happened is you wore a mask for no reason and were less comfortable. Is that really so bad? If they actually work then you may save someone’s life or at least slow the spread of the virus so we can all go back to normal life. Huge upside For public health and the economy, very small downside. Don’t let politics influence you into resisting something that could ultimately help.

Before anyone loses their mind, I’m not suggesting masks alone can solve the problem...it’s just one step in the process and a very simple one that everyone should just follow.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

This is a relatively small adjustment but could go a long way in helping these businesses. They have already been running at 50% occupancy for quite some type. So they can bump up to 75% in targeted areas. They still have to maintain social distancing requirements such as spacing, masks, etc. Bars remain closed (They need to figure this out eventually).

Hospitalizations levels are correlated to cases and spreading. It’s not random.

I get wanting to help businesses right now, but what happens when in October, Texas, for example, sees outbreaks similar to the one they had in June/July? What happens when no one goes out anymore? What happens to those small businesses?

I keep seeing the point that we need to focus on getting the economy going again, which I completely understand, but as long as we are in this infectious merry-go-round we won't be able to provide a substantial boost strong enough to save the economy, it could actually prove to be worse for the economy.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is a relatively small adjustment but could go a long way in helping these businesses. They have already been running at 50% occupancy for quite some type. So they can bump up to 75% in targeted areas. They still have to maintain social distancing requirements such as spacing, masks, etc. Bars remain closed (They need to figure this out eventually).

Hospitalizations levels are correlated to cases and spreading. It’s not random.

As long as the numbers have continued to improve I see know problem expanding restaurants to 75%. As long as they monitor the situation and if it results in a large uptick then shift back. From the start we always heard we would open things slow and steady and adjust based on what happens.

 

[Andrew C]

I get wanting to help businesses right now, but what happens when in October Texas, for example, sees outbreaks similar to the one they had in June/July? What happens when no one goes out anymore? What happens to those small businesses?

If that happens, it won’t be due to some businesses going from 50% to 75% capacity. If that happens, that will happen with or without this modification.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

If that happens, that will happen with or without this modification.

We can't say that yet.

Look at what happened in May, everything started reopening, people were encouraged to come out and get on with life. We saw the result of that in June/July.

People respond to what's happening around them. "Oh look, all my favorite food places are open and crowded! Corona must be over, lets rage."

 

[easyrowrdw]

We can't say that yet.

Look at what happened in May, everything started reopening, people were encouraged to come out and get on with life. We saw the result of that in June/July.

There weren't as many restrictions at that time. I think Texas didn't have a mask requirement state-wide until around the 4th of July. I think bars were finally shuttered about that same time. By then cases were going crazy. And, as Andrew noted, establishments been operating at 50% for a while now. This isn't from 0 to 75% in a day. Masks are still required in public, bars are still closed, etc.

 

[Andrew C]

As long as the numbers have continued to improve I see know problem expanding restaurants to 75%. As long as they monitor the situation and if it results in a large uptick then shift back. From the start we always heard we would open things slow and steady and adjust based on what happens.

I wonder what areas don’t meet the requirements to go up to 75%. I imagine some city centers but this is just a guess.