Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Outdoors has less risk, but not zero risk.

Outdoors isn't magic.

Nothing is zero risk short of a secure self quarantine where you don't ever come into contact with anybody from outside of your quarantine. If you are two feet away from somebody infected outdoors and they sneeze in your direction then it is pretty likely you will be infected.

Yet we are far above the June levels (and plateauing in my eyes) so no mission accomplished toss your masks in the air moment.

It is not hard to see what happened, we thought the spring was tough and hunkered, Memorial Day came and by the 4th of July it was spreading fast, we let that die down then Labor Day looks to have caused a plateau. Maybe we decline from here or maybe it spikes again but if the partying and gathering goes on you can expect to wear a mask for a very long time as the cycle continues.
Herd immunity is a myth, by the time you theoretically could achieve that 242 million people would have to have had it. We are at 6.5 million with 200K dead.
A vaccine is maybe a year or slightly less away, the only tools in the box are masks and distance/limit interactions. Vaccine may or may not be what we need, this thing could go away or it could mutate. Better to prepare if you can

We're probably really over 15 million that have had it. Herd immunity isn't a "myth." It's just that to reach the percentage of the population needed would lead to a couple of million accelerated deaths unless you could completely isolate the elderly for several months. However, I believe that what I call "herd slowing" is happening and is a major factor as to why the daily cases get suppressed everywhere that has had a significant spike.

If you completely removed social distancing protocols I doubt that enough of a percentage have had it (outside of maybe NYC) for the "herd slowing" to work on its own.

Even a vaccine is highly unlikely to eradicate this virus. Most likely, it will be around forever in either the current or a mutated form. Based on reading between the lines of Fauci's comments, the vaccines currently in testing aren't likely to be anywhere near 100% effective. As long as it is at least 50% effective, it will certainly help suppress the transmission. I would still expect that with a vaccine, once life is allowed to return to normal, I wouldn't be surprised at all for there to be over 10,000 daily cases in the US for several years, if not longer.

 

[Archie123]

I would put him in with all the other morons protesting and burning down cities.

One has nothing to do with the other but I guess you felt like you had to say something. #whataboutism.

 

[SamusAranX]

WHO warning of alarming rates of transmission in Europe.

Either people are slouching on the masks and distancing, or the virus is doing what it does.

 

[Andrew C]

WHO warning of alarming rates of transmission in Europe.

Either people are slouching on the masks and distancing, or the virus is doing what it does.

Little of both I imagine.

 

[Touchdown]

With a sprinkle of colder weather bringing more activities indoors.

 

[Miss Bella]

One has nothing to do with the other but I guess you felt like you had to say something. #whataboutism.

It's just another person protesting something and engaging in bad behavior while doing it. I guess it's the new norm.

 

[Andrew C]

'Very serious situation' unfolding in Europe, WHO warns, as cases rise dramatically

"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," the WHO's regional director for Europe said Thursday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Tink242424]

CDC Director said this today:
"I’m not going to comment directly about the president, but I am going to comment as the CDC director that face masks, these face masks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have," Redfield said, holding a mask in his hand. "And I will continue to appeal for all Americans, all individuals in our country, to embrace these face coverings. I’ve said that if we did it for six, eight, 10, 12 weeks we'd bring this pandemic under control."
Here in Orange County, we have been under mask mandate for 3 months. So either this is under control here, or he's wrong. Opinions?
Also, he said this:
"I might even go so far as to say this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine, because the immunogenicity might be 70%, and if I don't get an immune response the vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will."
Sounds like he expects the elusive vaccine will be less effective than measures we've had in place for a long time now. So much for being saved by the vaccine.

These types of messages are what are causing people to be misinformed and believe that the only reason we are still in the pandemic is that people aren't wearing masks. While some people refuse to wear masks that number is low compared to the amount of people wearing masks. This virus WILL spread NO MATTER WHAT until it burns through enough people (either by immunity from having it or a vaccine) and there is no other host to jump to.

This is the same as staying home for a few weeks will stop the pandemic in its tracks. It won't unless you all stay in place and don't go anywhere at all.

Stop with these messages that plain aren't true!!!

 

[Tink242424]

That's completely false. You're taking a larger population and saying that its higher prevalence of cases and deaths is because it's a greater number of people involved.

When you take into account cases and deaths *per capita*, the U.S. has been at the bottom of the list of countries.

You'd know that if you read all the charts in this thread that showed per capita stats instead of giving them LOL reactions.

Yes, it is a fact. More people = More deaths. How is that not true?? And I have looked at the data per capita and we are definitely not at the bottom. We are doing about average.

How we need to view the US is like each state is a different country. Some states are better than others like in Europe.

 

[Miss Bella]

'Very serious situation' unfolding in Europe, WHO warns, as cases rise dramatically

"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," the WHO's regional director for Europe said Thursday.

www.cnbc.com

Everyone's been so proud of Europe. What happened?

 

[JoeCamel]

We're probably really over 15 million that have had it. Herd immunity isn't a "myth." It's just that to reach the percentage of the population needed would lead to a couple of million accelerated deaths unless you could completely isolate the elderly for several months. However, I believe that what I call "herd slowing" is happening and is a major factor as to why the daily cases get suppressed everywhere that has had a significant spike.

Or the reverse is true that people saw the spike in their area and are taking precautions. Once they relax the numbers spike again. Nothing to do with immunity more with preventing the spread.

 

[Andrew C]

Everyone's been so proud of Europe. What happened?

It’s sad. Virus being the virus.

 

[Kevin_W]

'Very serious situation' unfolding in Europe, WHO warns, as cases rise dramatically

"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," the WHO's regional director for Europe said Thursday.

www.cnbc.com

Yes, Europe is looking scary recently. This is University of Washington data. France had plateaued ~60,000 active cases for over 3 months, but then in the past month that's shot up to 280,000 active cases. I know in Spain they attributed a similar rise to relaxation of measures, particularly int he Catalan region. I have not read what they think the drivers are in France.

 

[Miss Bella]

It’s sad. Virus being the virus.

I've said that along, but the consensus on here is Europe great job- US bad job.

 

[Miss Bella]

Even as Cases Rise, Europe Is Learning to Live With the Coronavirus (Published 2020)

Protections like wearing masks, which have proved divisive in the United States, are now widespread on the continent, helping people get on with their lives with calculated risk.

www.nytimes.com

An opinion in the New york times I actually agree with.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

We will not see the results of Labor Day for about a month. Remember, the incubation period is up to 14 days, it takes time for people to realize they may be sick/have corona and then seek out testing. It takes longer to see hospitalization results because it takes even longer for people to get that sick.

 

[SamusAranX]

Everyone's been so proud of Europe. What happened?

I don’t think news like that should be served with a dish of crow... :/

 

[Kevin_W]

We will not see the results of Labor Day for about a month. Remember, the incubation period is up to 14 days, it takes time for people to realize they may be sick/have corona and then seek out testing. It takes longer to see hospitalization results because it takes even longer for people to get that sick.

"up to" 14 days, though - the average is still about 5.

 

[mmascari]

Overall compliance is very good but there is always someone who wears it on their chin like they are getting over on something by doing it.

I never understand this behavior. Someone goes to the trouble to get a mask, they have it with them, the take the extra step to put it on their head. It's pulling on their ears/head just like if it was on. So, what's the point of doing all those steps and then failing at the last one?

It's like when the kid does her homework but then forgets to turn it in. All the hard parts and time were done, but then none of the benefit anyway.

I can't think of a less likely way to spread it than outdoors around a pool.

The private gathering issue is with indoor parties and no social distancing or poor ventilation.

I would generally agree that outdoor activities, with distance are completely safe. Even ones where there is intermittent short duration closer contact. And, we've been doing all of those, typically for a limited duration time. Since, the longer you do something, the more likely you are to deviate and end up in doing things that are no longer distanced and outside.

I would't go to a pool party though. In a pool, for a short visit, an hour or maybe two sure. But a 4+ hour party, less so. It's all the rest of the logistics where problems show up. Things like a buffet/snack table, moving indoors, and the bathroom.

It's the same issue sports stadiums have. They could give every family group a row with two or three rows between them and the next group and five or six seats to the next group in the same row. Plenty of distance and outside. It's the entrance, exit, concessions, and bathrooms where it get's interesting. All places where bottlenecks and congregation happens. The bathroom capacity is probably the hardest to solve. Entrance, exit can use ticketed time, online concessions with metered pickup times. Even a bathroom can allow only one group at a time with a distanced line. It's the overall bathroom capacity that's significantly reduced.

Still, there's way to do lots of stuff, like the social distance outdoor concerts that have shown up. I think more places will adjust to the new distancing requirements. It requires rethinking how the infrastructure was built, managing capacity for distance instead of the most people possible.

This virus WILL spread NO MATTER WHAT until it burns through enough people (either by immunity from having it or a vaccine) and there is no other host to jump to.

Tracking and targeted containment is valid strategy. Implementing it requires getting the infected population small enough that the tracking can be successful. TB is contained in the US without the use of a vaccine. Spread prior to showing symptoms makes it harder for COVID but not impossible. Having missed the initial containment, getting large numbers back down to manageable is still the first problem.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, it is a fact. More people = More deaths. How is that not true?? And I have looked at the data per capita and we are definitely not at the bottom. We are doing about average.

How we need to view the US is like each state is a different country. Some states are better than others like in Europe.

This is exactly what I was talking about in the post below. This is looking at parts or Europe and comparing it to FL adjusting for population size:

Let’s not over state the situation in Europe. The nations covered by that article have a population that’s roughly 1.5X the US so if you adjust for population size the number of new cases is still only 2/3 of what we have seen in the US. Taking it a step further to specific countries identified as being the heart of their outbreak, France had 10,000 new cases in a day (67M people) so roughly 149 cases per million people. Spain had 4,137 daily cases (47M people) so 88 cases per million and Italy had 1,600 daily case (60M people) so 27 cases per million. FL had 3,731 new cases today (21M people) 179 cases per million people. So while we “celebrate” FL’s case numbers coming down and use it as a trigger to start re-opening bars the cases per million are still higher than any of the European countries experiencing a “huge spike” in cases. What are those countries doing? Not opening more stuff, but adding restrictions. Italy and Spain closed nightclubs and mandated masks, a move France made recently too. The point of all this is the headline is a bit deceiving and you always have to look at areas from a population size perspective.

The point of all of this is this spike in cases in Europe that is being discussed (celebrated?) here as a justification that the virus will just do what it does is actually a spike to a level far below the current level of cases in FL when you adjust for population size. So their “major spike” called “alarming“ and “a very serious situation” by the WHO is an increase from a very low level to a level still well below what’s currently happening in FL. Meanwhile in FL the current numbers are considered positive enough to re-open bars and pull back on restrictions. It’s a vast contrast between reactions to numbers.