CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
Where are you getting this stuff?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Experts have been on tv almost everyday sharing this information. They say"it would be hopeful to have it in the fall...BUT...." and then they go into the REALITY of the situation.
Seanual757
Well-Known Member
WH Corona task force and Dr Fauci have said even if we have a vaccine by say December it's going to be well into the fall 2021 before they can produce 750 million vaccines for the US population. We are not the only people on the planet that need to be vaccinated
Dr. Fauci is 'cautiously optimistic' that by the end of 2021 there will be enough coronavirus vaccine shots for all Americans
Dr. Anthony Fauci suspects that if Americans want a coronavirus vaccine, they'll be able to get one before next year is up.
www.businessinsider.com
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Uhh. In the US this isn’t really accurate. More than just front line workers will have initial access. Of course there will be prioritization however. And the logistics of distribution have been ongoing for months at this point. I have no opinion on spring break this or that. Just that you may be underselling the amount of doses that will be ready.
Side note, a lot of this will also depend when one gets approved.
Seanual757
Well-Known Member
Nothing would make me happier than a vaccine to be ready tomorrow. But the harder and more frustrating part will be the wait. How will the vaccines be distributed who gets them 1st, then the 2nd group, 3rd group, and so on.
We have no Plan right now how will folks be able to get a shot they do not know how yet. If they set up distribution centers like the Covid tests they will have a limit of 500 a day per testing center and here in Orange County FL we had at he peak 4-5 centers so that is 2500 per day. We have 8.2 million residents in Central Florida even if they opened up 30 distribution centers for shots, each center can do 1000 per day it will take 9-11 months 7 days a week to vaccinate every person in Central Florida.
Seanual757
Well-Known Member
I believe it will be approved in December and I am holding firm Summer into the fall before we all can have one. Remember it looks like we will have to take 2 doses of the vaccine so they produce 10 million at a time that only covers 5 million folks.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
The plan is to have 300 million doses ready by March in the US. That can vaccinate a significant percentage of the population. And, the CDC is leading the distribution charge. It seems complex as the below article mentions, but to say there is no plan is misleading.
'Mind-bogglingly complex': Here's what we know about how COVID-19 vaccine will be distributed when it's approved
We don’t know when a COVID-19 vaccine will arrive, but we’re starting to understand how it will be distributed. The logistics can be complicated.
www.usatoday.com
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Almost everything I have read says, we are all going to need 2 shots. That’s a huge problem. Convincing people to get a shot is going to be a huge undertaking, now tell them they need to get another at a later time.The plan is to have 300 million doses ready by March in the US. That can vaccinate a significant percentage of the population. And, the CDC is leading the distribution charge. It seems complex as the below article mentions, but to say there is no plan is misleading.
'Mind-bogglingly complex': Here's what we know about how COVID-19 vaccine will be distributed when it's approved
We don’t know when a COVID-19 vaccine will arrive, but we’re starting to understand how it will be distributed. The logistics can be complicated.www.usatoday.com
There's no question that this is going to be the most complicated, largest vaccination program in human history, and that's going to take a level of effort, a level of sophistication, that we've never tried before," said Dr. Kelly Moore, a health policy professor at Vanderbilt University.
Some of the potential problems are logistical. Difficulties procuring test kits and protective gear throughout the pandemic point to supply chain issues that could also plague distributing double doses of vaccines for an entire country.
We can say we are coordinating it now as much as we want but there are literally hundreds of hurdles to jump over. We can do it but it’s not as easy as saying, great, we have a vaccine, everything will be fine in a month.
Seanual757
Well-Known Member
The plan is to have 300 million doses ready by March in the US. That can vaccinate a significant percentage of the population. And, the CDC is leading the distribution charge. It seems complex as the below article mentions, but to say there is no plan is misleading.
'Mind-bogglingly complex': Here's what we know about how COVID-19 vaccine will be distributed when it's approved
We don’t know when a COVID-19 vaccine will arrive, but we’re starting to understand how it will be distributed. The logistics can be complicated.www.usatoday.com
If 300 million doses are available that means 150 million folks can get a vaccine because it will take 2 doses for each person. So if we do that math we are looking at August/September before we can all get one at our local doctor.
No plan well the CDC told states late week to prepare for a distribution plan let's see how the states prepare to distribute the vaccine.
Again everything is all speculation until we know if and when the vaccine will be approved. For our sake I really hope it's sooner than later as long as it's safe. Let's put this behind us and move on..
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Hahah. I thought I was the vaccine pessimist but yall have proved me wrong. Glass half empty!!
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
It’s not me, just quoting experts!
With that said.. the sooner we have one the quicker everything gets moving.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
So that’s 150 million people likely not being able to contribute to any spread. Or even 100 million if we play it more conservative and say the vaccine isn’t 100%. That’s significant and doesn’t even take into account people who already got it or how the virus is acting at this time next spring. We don’t ALL need to get one in order to see a tremendous impact.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Yes. You pulled a pessimistic viewpoint. There is nothing wrong with that. Just pointing out that’s the route you went.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Alrighty then.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Did you guys live in a cave somewhere in 2009 when H1N1 hit. You won’t be going to your doctors office to get a Covid vaccine. For H1N1 I had to go to a local township building where they were administering the vaccine. It was a very controlled process. My wife was pregnant at the time so we were considered high priority since H1N1 impacted kids worse than adults. For timeline the FDA approved 4 H1N1 vaccines on 9/15. High risk people started to get vaccinated first in November and by the end of December the government removed most restrictions and opened to the general public. For reference the US government bought 230M doses of the vaccine which 90M were used. Most of the surplus were destroyed. And for the vaccine deniers out there the H1N1 vaccine was 95% effective.
For most of the Covid vaccines in development 2 doses may be required so double the number of shots needed, but not every person will get it. If we got 150M people to get vaccinated that would be a huge win. That’s 300M doses of vaccine. The US has already purchased 300M doses combined of the 3 leading candidates right now. While there’s no guarantee that all 3 of those work it is possible. H1N1 had 5 total approved. Even if only 1 pans out the manufacturing process for the leading vaccine candidates is much faster than the traditional flu shots that use chicken eggs. The point is we won’t be sitting around a year waiting for more vaccine. Whoever wants it will get it. It will take some time to distribute to sites and administer the shots. If I had to guess I’d say 6 months max from the first injection to completion.
For most of the Covid vaccines in development 2 doses may be required so double the number of shots needed, but not every person will get it. If we got 150M people to get vaccinated that would be a huge win. That’s 300M doses of vaccine. The US has already purchased 300M doses combined of the 3 leading candidates right now. While there’s no guarantee that all 3 of those work it is possible. H1N1 had 5 total approved. Even if only 1 pans out the manufacturing process for the leading vaccine candidates is much faster than the traditional flu shots that use chicken eggs. The point is we won’t be sitting around a year waiting for more vaccine. Whoever wants it will get it. It will take some time to distribute to sites and administer the shots. If I had to guess I’d say 6 months max from the first injection to completion.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
I would expect vaccine availability and rollout to mimic the testing effort. Not smooth, not the best and certainly not enough.
I imagine there'll be protests and political divisiveness. I mean, to mimic everything that has already and will continue to be until the rollout is a thing. That sentence kind of works if you say it out loud.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
There will be nothing smooth about it. People will be waiting in long lines (for hours most likely) to get it. Especially in the beginning.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
I wouldn’t expect one to mimic the other at all. Logistically, they are completely different. Not to mention we have actually had experience with mass vaccine distribution. It’s gonna be a pain but it will be fine at be end. Well, once we have one.
I would be sad if it was available tomorrow.
Because, I want proper FDA approval.
There's no way to have a proper FDA approval for a vaccine tomorrow. The steps we can skip or accelerate don't get a fully evaluated vaccine tomorrow. We would have to skip safety and efficacy steps to have it that fast.
That's the worst part. We don't need a vaccine to get back to normal. It could be done through fast testing, targeted isolation, trace. We're getting better at fast, but not great. We still have people actively not helping tracing. We're still far away from enough testing. I'll be happy when the daily positivity is below 1.0 or below 0.5 for a trend. Then we will be identifying enough community spread to allow the targeted isolating and tracing to work. Assuming people don't continue to fight against it. Until then, we're still flying blind. Not as blind as we were at 10%, but still no control over community spread.
People in general will not get back to prior levels of activity until community spread is under control.
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