You and others keep repeating this line about "no community spread," which has never been where the goal posts have been. In March, we had absolutely no clue how far the virus had penetrated. Looking at the chart posted above, NYC absolutely needed a massive lockdown to bring things under control. We did not know how many other places needed that type of lockdown because we did not understand the means of transmission, how many communities were affected, the IFR or how to effectively treat people or even identify people at risk (the vascular stuff that has people suffering heart attacks and strokes even if they don't have respiratory symptoms).
What people object to is the "there's nothing we can do, going back to 2019" plan. No masks, no restrictions on the types of businesses and gatherings that can operate safely, none of it. If we do that, we will have uncontrolled community spread, and hospitals will get overwhelmed. So if the rules are minimal, than people are going to react because some can visualize the cause -> effect without having to see it play out first.
So in your world of "adjusting thinking" what should we be doing?
Masks?
Bars?
Parties?
Family Gatherings?
wear a mask, sure. if it makes you feel better. also, go to bars, parties, and family gatherings, if it makes you feel better. if it doesn't, don't. i'm not in charge of your social calendar.
to your spread point, you're using the same line of thinking that all modeling used, which was, "WE HAVE NO IDEA, SO THERE HAS TO BE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH, etc." we haven't proven that it's incredibly flawed already? we haven't seen in controlled environments (like diamond princess, where social distancing is impossible) that not EVERYONE got infected? don't we basically know through all experience in the history of human beings that virus gonna virus, and it's why "social distancing" as we know it was derived from a high school experiment from 40 years ago? depending on how old you are, you have survived anywhere from 2-to-4 pandemics. the difference is that the first three, you didn't know they were happening.
also, absolutely do not make that inference in NYC. it is an awful reading of the data and very much likely not the case. on new york (since i actually live and work here):
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Who is doing a better job do you think?
if there's one thing i know, it's that we new yorkers freakin' loooooove to tell people how great we are.
but does everyone remember this?
now look at the chart dan posted. which looks like NY, and which looks like the sunbelt curve?
the heroic tale we're telling is, "we did it! we crushed the curve!" it's nice, but it's requires some big mental gymnastics.
for whatever it's worth, i do think we got dealt a bad hand, which was exacerbated by the scattershot federal response. it's very likely what happened is that COVID, like every other coronavirus, is highly seasonal. because of the regional presence of large corporate offices, tourism, mass transit, etc., and it being novel and not having bad flu seasons for two years (leaving lots more vulnerable), we got SMOKED with this thing. and yeah, the governor's LTC order ultimately didn't help. but the horse left the barn long after we closed the door, and it burned out. it's why we have been able to have weeks of protests (from BLM to occupy city hall) without any spike in cases.
if we really did an honest post mortem of what happened, we would be able to move forward with mitigation measures that make sense. since you asked, for one, point-of-care testing at nursing homes and hospitals, as opposed to testing every asymptomatic, 22-year-old. or like voluntarily closing your social circles in peak season times. stuff we kind of do already in the winter time.
but we're scared, and we want control. and this politician says this and this other one says that and i'm on his team and not on his team so i believe that guy and on and on and on and on it goes.
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