Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

One hopes we can look back weeks from now and 7/11/20 has become the peak of the first wave.

Let’s hope. Generally speaking if you look back at Wuhan or NYC or other hard hit areas, the virus has generally had a 3 month arc. First month has rising cases, peaks beginning to middle of 2nd month and then a steady fall through the 3rd month. If that pattern held true in FL we should see the peak somewhere towards the end of July (since this really started to spike mid-June) and by the end of August into Sept things should be more stabilized. The only wildcard is in the past spikes the areas impacted went on some form of stay at home orders during the first month (think NY with a Mar/Apr/May arc but went on stay at home by the second half of March). We will have to wait and see what the results are without those restrictions. Stay tuned.

 

[wdwmagic]

Bleak outlook from the UK Government advisory body today

Coronavirus: 'Infection here for many years to come'

Even progress in developing a vaccine is unlikely to mean the virus will be eliminated, MPs hear.

www.bbc.com

Sir Jeremy, a member of Sage, the government advisory body, said the world would be living with Covid-19 for "very many, many years to come".

"Things will not be done by Christmas. This infection is not going away, it's now a human endemic infection.

"Even, actually, if we have a vaccine or very good treatments, humanity will still be living with this virus for very many, many years.... decades to come."

 

[hopemax]

I have a feeling that people are going to be even more restless, going forward. So we aren't going to get any long declines back to small numbers, like May/early June. We will have this spike, people will do better for a couple weeks until the peak starts cresting or plateauing a little, then get antsy and start doing stuff again, so the downward slope shallows out quickly, and then starts climbing again. But since we never really had much improvement, the new spike quickly overtakes the peak of the previous spike, and the next plateau is even higher. Rinse, repeat.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Hawaii was one of the most strict places in the US for the same reason. It’s easy to lock down the borders on an island too.

Alaska too. I’ve looked into visiting and you have to have a test within 72 hours of Flying, have a test at the airport and quarantine until the results, or quarantine for a full 2 weeks upon arrival. You have to fill out papers with proof of what your plan is.

 

[hopemax]

Bleak outlook from the UK Government advisory body today

Coronavirus: 'Infection here for many years to come'

Even progress in developing a vaccine is unlikely to mean the virus will be eliminated, MPs hear.

www.bbc.com

Sir Jeremy, a member of Sage, the government advisory body, said the world would be living with Covid-19 for "very many, many years to come".

"Things will not be done by Christmas. This infection is not going away, it's now a human endemic infection.

"Even, actually, if we have a vaccine or very good treatments, humanity will still be living with this virus for very many, many years.... decades to come."

We forget what the world used to be like. Or what the world is still like in underdeveloped areas. The vaccines developed in the 20th century really changed the game for first world residents. Influenza is usually the worst most have to deal with, and for most people, that is only an inconvenience. Polio, measles, mumps, rubella, malaria, tuberculosis. All things our ancestors had to find a way to live with, that we get to blissful ignore. HIV is the closest to striking fear, but since it's not transmissible in the same way, I guess people feel like they have more control.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Bleak outlook from the UK Government advisory body today

Coronavirus: 'Infection here for many years to come'

Even progress in developing a vaccine is unlikely to mean the virus will be eliminated, MPs hear.

www.bbc.com

Sir Jeremy, a member of Sage, the government advisory body, said the world would be living with Covid-19 for "very many, many years to come".

"Things will not be done by Christmas. This infection is not going away, it's now a human endemic infection.

"Even, actually, if we have a vaccine or very good treatments, humanity will still be living with this virus for very many, many years.... decades to come."

I mean I knew that...but it still sucks.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

This will be a "shelter in place" type thing until At least next spring.

 

[Dizneykid]

This will be a "shelter in place" type thing until At least next spring.

Nobody is sheltering in place now and you think it will continue until spring? I can't see it happening and it shouldn't be necessary. People at risk already know what to do and anyone that wants to avoid the virus at all costs knows what to do also.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nobody is sheltering in place now and you think it will continue until spring? I can't see it happening and it shouldn't be necessary. People at risk already know what to do and anyone that wants to avoid the virus at all costs knows what to do also.

Shame people that don’t have as much risk are running wild and bringing it back to people trying to be safe.

 

[Casper Gutman]

We forget what the world used to be like. Or what the world is still like in underdeveloped areas. The vaccines developed in the 20th century really changed the game for first world residents. Influenza is usually the worst most have to deal with, and for most people, that is only an inconvenience. Polio, measles, mumps, rubella, malaria, tuberculosis. All things our ancestors had to find a way to live with, that we get to blissful ignore. HIV is the closest to striking fear, but since it's not transmissible in the same way, I guess people feel like they have more control.

I’ll be the optimist here. Yes, covid will be around. But as we develop a vaccine (even of limited efficacy) and develop treatments, the ifr rate should fall, hopefully dramatically, and the need to take extraordinary steps will diminish. It’s all a matter of playing for time, really.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Nobody is sheltering in place now and you think it will continue until spring? I can't see it happening and it shouldn't be necessary. People at risk already know what to do and anyone that wants to avoid the virus at all costs knows what to do also.

I mean its going to be affecting us this way until at least the spring. The virus won't go anywhere, but these types of measures will be around.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I’ll be the optimist here. Yes, covid will be around. But as we develop a vaccine (even of limited efficacy) and develop treatments, the ifr rate should fall, hopefully dramatically, and the need to take extraordinary steps will diminish. It’s all a matter of playing for time, really.

I agree, but I think it will be until at least spring until we can start to move away from dramatic measures. Even if theres a vaccine by lets say December, we won't be able to breath a sigh of relief until distribution has reached an appropriate level which can take some time

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I have been following this pandemic since Nov/Dec when it first emerged. I have always been prepared for 18-24 months of drastic change. Before it was a problem worldwide, here in the states, before it was politicized. Most who have closely followed this thing agree.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Nobody is sheltering in place now and you think it will continue until spring? I can't see it happening and it shouldn't be necessary. People at risk already know what to do and anyone that wants to avoid the virus at all costs knows what to do also.

The “people at risk just need to shelter and everyone else does whatever they want” take is one of the most absurd that keeps popping up. Vulnerable folks need to be careful, but this is saying, “hey person over 55/ obese person/ person with diabetes/ immune compromised person, seal yourself into a plexiglass box and forego all human contact - it’s only sensible. We normals want to go to WDW. Of course, even in your cube, you’ll have to import food, which is a possible (though less likely) vector, so as we spread covid freely even your cube may be endangered but... I don’t think you understand how much I want to ride Space Mountain.”

 

[Heppenheimer]

We forget what the world used to be like. Or what the world is still like in underdeveloped areas. The vaccines developed in the 20th century really changed the game for first world residents. Influenza is usually the worst most have to deal with, and for most people, that is only an inconvenience. Polio, measles, mumps, rubella, malaria, tuberculosis. All things our ancestors had to find a way to live with, that we get to blissful ignore. HIV is the closest to striking fear, but since it's not transmissible in the same way, I guess people feel like they have more control.

Speaking of which, do you know why tuberculosis is now rare in much of the developed world? Not because of vaccination (the vaccine is not now, nor was it ever, routinely given outside of the third world). Because of extremely rigorous testing, monitoring and treatment protocols enforced by public health agencies. By quaranting and mandating treatment in those who were infected. Thanks to these efforts, tuberculosis has gone from one of the leading killers of the 19th century to a disease rare enough that most western physicians will never see itin their clinical practices. It was a massive government and public effort, but our ancestors effective beat tuberculosis.

But for some reason, today we can't even seem to agree that masks should be worn.

 

[hopemax]

I’ll be the optimist here. Yes, covid will be around. But as we develop a vaccine (even of limited efficacy) and develop treatments, the ifr rate should fall, hopefully dramatically, and the need to take extraordinary steps will diminish. It’s all a matter of playing for time, really.

I agree, but there are a lot of people out there that think this really will just "go away." We just need to wait it out a little, it will burn itself out and we can go back to what life was like in 2019. That isn't happening. This will continue to need to be managed. Hopefully, that just means we get covid shots like flu shots, or we know if we get more seriously sick that there is treatment that will get us over the hump. But it's not looking like it is going to essentially disappear as a virus threat, like SARS or MERS.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

The “people at risk just need to shelter and everyone else does whatever they want” take is one of the most absurd that keeps popping up. Vulnerable folks need to be careful, but this is saying, “hey person over 55/ obese person/ person with diabetes/ immune compromised person, seal yourself into a plexiglass box and forego all human contact - it’s only sensible. We normals want to go to WDW. Of course, even in your cube, you’ll have to import food, which is a possible (though less likely) vector, so as we spread covid freely even your cube may be endangered but... I don’t think you understand how much I want to ride Space Mountain.”

also these people need to make money too.....they need to survive and eat too...

 

[wdwmagic]

I agree, but there are a lot of people out there that think this really will just "go away." We just need to wait it out a little, it will burn itself out and we can go back to what life was like in 2019. That isn't happening. This will continue to need to be managed. Hopefully, that just means we get covid shots like flu shots, or we know if we get more seriously sick that there is treatment that will get us over the hump. But it's not looking like it is going to essentially disappear as a virus threat, like SARS or MERS.

I think that is very much the mentality of a lot of people. They did their few weeks or months off work, did the lock down, and now they are done with that and expect it to be OK by the time school returns for things to go back to normal.

 

[GoofGoof]

There has to be a middle ground. We can’t just shelter in place for another year but we also can’t just let people do whatever they want and just lock away high risk people. The worldwide economy and specifically the US economy cannot function in either of those scenarios. For the good of everyone collectively we need a sensible middle ground approach which allows as much stuff as possible to be open with rules and requirements implemented. Things like capacity limits, physical distancing and masks everywhere. The economy won’t function when up to half the consumers are sitting out, not to mention how many of the workers would also be sidelined if we just shelter the high risk. The government could step in and attempt to support all those people longer term, but that has a massive cost and its much better to attempt to reduce infection and make things safe enough for most people to work and consume. I get that some people don’t really care about the economy or other people, they just want to be allowed to do whatever they want to do without the government intervening, but it’s the job of the government to do what’s in the best interest of the country as a whole even if that temporarily restricts some people from doing what they want to do.

 

[Kevin_W]

I think that is very much the mentality of a lot of people. They did their few weeks or months off work, did the lock down, and now they are done with that and expect it to be OK by the time school returns for things to go back to normal.

I'm sure there are some like this. Btu I'm sure there are others that look at articles like the linked one that say Covid will be with us for a year (or 2 years, or a forever depending on the article) and say: I'm was willing to shut myself in my house for a month or two, I'm not willing to do that for a year or two. If the virus will be present that long, we have to learn to live with it and adapt to a "new normal" (though I'm sure we're all tired of hearing that phrase, too).