Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mickeymiss]

Once again, this data is impossible to read without context. Florida is huge. We are not being told what type of transmission is driving this. They must have a clue. There's no expert guided leadership whatsoever. It matters to disinguish between high and low risk factors. Sittting around waiting in our homes for the virus to go away isn't a plan. Shuttering every business with rock solid safety plans is punitive.

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?

 

[TrojanUSC]

Once again, this data is impossible to read without context. Florida is huge. We are not being told what type of transmission is driving this. They must have a clue. There's no expert guided leadership whatsoever. It matters to disinguish between high and low risk factors. Sittting around waiting in our homes for the virus to go away isn't a plan. Shuttering every business with rock solid safety plans is punitive.

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?

We know how COVID-19 spreads. People without masks in air conditioned environments. Disney is probably safe attraction-wise, but their restaurants pose a real risk, even with reduced capacity. Also a big risk are the support areas for CMs (break rooms, etc). Churches, family gatherings, parties, etc. All driving the spread.

 

[GoofGoof]

Once again, this data is impossible to read without context. Florida is huge. We are not being told what type of transmission is driving this. They must have a clue. There's no expert guided leadership whatsoever. It matters to disinguish between high and low risk factors. Sittting around waiting in our homes for the virus to go away isn't a plan. Shuttering every business with rock solid safety plans is punitive.

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?

I don’t think it’s just that they aren’t telling us the data, they really don’t know. The effort to contact trace has been botched pretty bad and it doesn’t help that a subset of the population won’t help with that process because they think it’s a violation of their privacy rights. So if someone tests positive but refuses to answer tracing questions then it’s impossible to know how they got sick. Even for the majority of people who cooperate, most of them went multiple places. So if everyone that tests positive says they went to a grocery store in the past 2 weeks then does that mean grocery stores are really high risk? No, just because they went there doesn’t mean that’s where they got sick. It’s hard to tell where people got infected.

On the topic of theme parks I don’t even think they are trying to contact trace there. It’s similar to the beach or a big state park. Way too many people through each day to be able to contact anyone who may have come in contact with them. It’s probably just chalked up as community spread. I would also assume that most people who are comfortable going to a theme park are doing a lot of other things as well so again, hard to pinpoint where people actually got infected. If everyone who went to Universal since it opened and has since tested positive were “listed ” as infected at Universal that would be unfair if a lot of those people also went to a bar or a family BBQ or any other place too.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Once again, this data is impossible to read without context. Florida is huge. We are not being told what type of transmission is driving this. They must have a clue. There's no expert guided leadership whatsoever. It matters to disinguish between high and low risk factors. Sittting around waiting in our homes for the virus to go away isn't a plan. Shuttering every business with rock solid safety plans is punitive.

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?

I don’t think it’s just that they aren’t telling us the data, they really don’t know. The effort to contact trace has been botched pretty bad and it doesn’t help that a subset of the population won’t help with that process because they think it’s a violation of their privacy rights. So if someone tests positive but refuses to answer tracing questions then it’s impossible to know how they got sick. Even for the majority of people who cooperate, most of them went multiple places. So if everyone that tests positive says they went to a grocery store in the past 2 weeks then does that mean grocery stores are really high risk? No, just because they went there doesn’t mean that’s where they got sick. It’s hard to tell where people got infected.

On the topic of theme parks I don’t even think they are trying to contact trace there. It’s similar to the beach or a big state park. Way too many people through each day to be able to contact anyone who may have come in contact with them. It’s probably just chalked up as community spread. I would also assume that most people who are comfortable going to a theme park are doing a lot of other things as well so again, hard to pinpoint where people actually got infected. If everyone who went to Universal since it opened and has since tested positive were “listed ” as infected at Universal that would be unfair if a lot of those people also went to a bar or a family BBQ or any other place too.

and this is why they have been shutting things down. To figure out where the spread is occurring. This is why nationwide there's been a movement to close all dining in door. Its a constantly evolving situation so youre going to see a whole slew of things opening then closing.

 

[milordsloth]

We know how COVID-19 spreads. People without masks in air conditioned environments. Disney is probably safe attraction-wise, but their restaurants pose a real risk, even with reduced capacity. Also a big risk are the support areas for CMs (break rooms, etc). Churches, family gatherings, parties, etc. All driving the spread.

I've still only seen the one example out of China linking AC and spread of the disease. In restaurants at least, not wearing masks and being in the same space for extended periods of time I imagine is the main issue. If you changed "air conditioned environments" to "indoors without masks", I agree with your comment.

 

[milordsloth]

So if everyone that tests positive says they went to a grocery store in the past 2 weeks then does that mean grocery stores are really high risk? No, just because they went there doesn’t mean that’s where they got sick. It’s hard to tell where people got infected.

Just to respond to this point, and how it relates to a theme park, from what I understand the extended time of exposure, especially tied to mask usage, is where the increased risk comes from. Contact tracing doesn't need to be every single person you walked by in the last 2 weeks, just people you actually interacted with.

 

[techgeek]

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?

We know how COVID-19 spreads. People without masks in air conditioned environments.

I've still only seen the one example out of China linking AC and spread of the disease. In restaurants at least, not wearing masks and being in the same space for extended periods of time I imagine is the main issue. If you changed "air conditioned environments" to "indoors without masks", I agree with your comment.

So this is not exactly a scientific study, but JP Morgan found there's some interesting... coincidences... going on with credit card spending, and specially in-person card use at restaurants cross-referenced with hotspot states.

News story here:

This chart shows the link between restaurant spending and new cases of coronavirus

Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to JPMorgan.

www.cnbc.com

I believe this is sourced in part from this PDF:

Page Not Found | J.P. Morgan

Which is hosted here along with their other Covid-19 research:

Eye on the Market | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.

Since 2005, Eye on the Market has provided insights covering a wide range of topics across markets, investments, economics, politics, energy, municipal finance and more.

privatebank.jpmorgan.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Just to respond to this point, and how it relates to a theme park, from what I understand the extended time of exposure, especially tied to mask usage, is where the increased risk comes from. Contact tracing doesn't need to be every single person you walked by in the last 2 weeks, just people you actually interacted with.

The problem is you interact with a whole lot of people that you don’t know. If I go to my neighbor’s house for a BBQ I can make a list of everyone there if I test positive. If I test positive after visiting WDW and they want to know everyone I interacted with that’s not going to be possible. It’s not any different than going any large pubic place like a beach or park. It’s also virtually impossible to know if someone got sick at a theme park unless they are there for a week or 2 and never left. I’m guessing that’s more likely at WDW then Universal since people tend to stay longer.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The problem is you interact with a whole lot of people that you don’t know. If I go to my neighbor’s house for a BBQ I can make a list of everyone there if I test positive. If I test positive after visiting WDW and they want to know everyone I interacted with that’s not going to be possible. It’s not any different than going any large pubic place like a beach or park. It’s also virtually impossible to know if someone got sick at a theme park unless they are there for a week or 2 and never left. I’m guessing that’s more likely at WDW then Universal since people tend to stay longer.

This was the promise of the Apple-Google system but it seems only a handful of states are interested in developing an app.

 

[milordsloth]

This was the promise of the Apple-Google system but it seems only a handful of states are interested in developing an app.

Yeah no thanks to that invasion of privacy.

 

[milordsloth]

The problem is you interact with a whole lot of people that you don’t know. If I go to my neighbor’s house for a BBQ I can make a list of everyone there if I test positive. If I test positive after visiting WDW and they want to know everyone I interacted with that’s not going to be possible. It’s not any different than going any large pubic place like a beach or park. It’s also virtually impossible to know if someone got sick at a theme park unless they are there for a week or 2 and never left. I’m guessing that’s more likely at WDW then Universal since people tend to stay longer.

I really dont think every person you walk by or wave to counts as someone that needs to be contacted. They would ask where you ate to look at cast members maybe but there needs to be a longer interaction to have a big olenough risk.

 

[GoofGoof]

I really dont think every person you walk by or wave to counts as someone that needs to be contacted. They would ask where you ate to look at cast members maybe but there needs to be a longer interaction to have a big olenough risk.

I don’t mean walking by in a park. You wait in long lines for mostly everything with people around. When you eat at a restaurant there’s people all around you that you don’t know, plus workers. At the pool you are around a lot of people for more than just a passing moment. You ride a bus or monorail or boat with other people including workers. There’s really no way to trace that. If you flew in there’s hundreds of passengers on the plane with you and countless more in the airport.

 

[techgeek]

Yeah no thanks to that invasion of privacy.

The Apple / Google system specifically does not rely on GPS data. Instead, they keep a running tally of broadcasting bluetooth devices (ie: a phone) and how long you are in close range with them. The actual device ID's are anonymized, if a 'positive' is reported to the database from one of your close contacts it will notify you, but it wouldn't be able to tell you who / where / when because that data isn't linked.

Exposure Notifications: Helping fight COVID-19 - Google

Learn how Exposure Notifications, built by Google and Apple, enable apps to send you a notification if you’ve likely been exposed to COVID-19.

www.google.com

To me this is not an invasion of privacy.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Apple / Google system specifically does not rely on GPS data. Instead, they keep a running tally of broadcasting bluetooth devices (ie: a phone) and how long you are in close range with them. The actual device ID's are anonymized, if a 'positive' is reported to the database from one of your close contacts it will notify you, but it wouldn't be able to tell you who / where / when because that data isn't linked.

Exposure Notifications: Helping fight COVID-19 - Google

Learn how Exposure Notifications, built by Google and Apple, enable apps to send you a notification if you’ve likely been exposed to COVID-19.

www.google.com

To me this is not an invasion of privacy.

It’s not worth it. People are dug in and won’t listen. I’ve tried explaining how the actual app works but people just get angry.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

The Apple / Google system specifically does not rely on GPS data. Instead, they keep a running tally of broadcasting bluetooth devices (ie: a phone) and how long you are in close range with them. The actual device ID's are anonymized, if a 'positive' is reported to the database from one of your close contacts it will notify you, but it wouldn't be able to tell you who / where / when because that data isn't linked.

Exposure Notifications: Helping fight COVID-19 - Google

Learn how Exposure Notifications, built by Google and Apple, enable apps to send you a notification if you’ve likely been exposed to COVID-19.

www.google.com

To me this is not an invasion of privacy.

It’s not worth it. People are dug in and won’t listen. I’ve tried explaining how the actual app works but people just get angry.

its worth noting satellite data ALREADY tracks your movement. This is just an added thing.

 

[techgeek]

It’s not worth it. People are dug in and won’t listen. I’ve tried explaining how the actual app works but people just get angry.

The only way it will work, unfortunately, is if it's required in some way. Wouldn't it have been interesting if Disney required some version of a tracking app to step on property?

 

[GoofGoof]

its worth noting satellite data ALREADY tracks your movement. This is just an added thing.

It’s not though. There’s zero tracking involved. It doesn’t use your GPS like so many other apps do. There’s no record stored of where you have been.

 

[milordsloth]

It’s not though. There’s zero tracking involved. It doesn’t use your GPS like so many other apps do. There’s no record stored of where you have been.

Sounds like it could be a logical way to do it, I'm still not going personally go along with something like that. I have enough of a tech invasion already. I could see something like that happening though, whether I want it or not.

 

[Kevin_W]

So this is not exactly a scientific study, but JP Morgan found there's some interesting... coincidences... going on with credit card spending, and specially in-person card use at restaurants cross-referenced with hotspot states.

News story here:

This chart shows the link between restaurant spending and new cases of coronavirus

Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to JPMorgan.

www.cnbc.com

I believe this is sourced in part from this PDF:

Page Not Found | J.P. Morgan

Which is hosted here along with their other Covid-19 research:

Eye on the Market | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.

Since 2005, Eye on the Market has provided insights covering a wide range of topics across markets, investments, economics, politics, energy, municipal finance and more.

privatebank.jpmorgan.com

That's pretty fascinating. Much like the charts that use cell phone data to track mobility in a state (or county, or whatever) it's an interesting glimpse into the world of Big Data.

We've enjoyed eating out since my wife and I were dating back in the 90's, probably going to a restaurant once a week on average. But since March, we've been to a restaurant once about a month ago. I thought their protocols were good and I didn't feel unsafe, but I still find myself not having the desire to go out to eat.

 

[mickeymiss]

Just to respond to this point, and how it relates to a theme park, from what I understand the extended time of exposure, especially tied to mask usage, is where the increased risk comes from. Contact tracing doesn't need to be every single person you walked by in the last 2 weeks, just people you actually interacted with.

I've been looking at this for a long time because I have anxiety about all infectious disease. Not just covid. Many viruses are not robust enough to spread easily in casual settings. Covid seems to be fitting somewhat in that category. For a disease with no vaccine or herd immunity, we would be seeing overwhelming case numbers everywhere if casual contact was the culprit.

This is one area where anecdotal observation is useful. We would be crippled by cases if grocery stores were driving the spread, for example.

I have researched some of the more contagious diseases (measles, chicken pox) and most consider contacts to be someone you had a face to face encounter with for a certain period of time. Both measles and chicken pox are more contagious than covid. We should use what we know collectively about infectious disease and covid to make common sense decisions. Chicken pox was a disease people almost exclusively caught from extremely close knit situations. Everything I've read about covid seems about the same. Some kind of close and prolonged behavior with an infected human. This is the data being left out of every fear peddling article we read and it's part of why people are not seeking treatment for other problems when they need it. Enough. Time to be adults and talk about this in a way that could possibly help allay at least some fear. This is no way for anyone to live when they likely have a lot of findings by now about low risk versus high risk. It's criminal to allow our at risk population to wallow in desperate panic.