Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[bpiper]

Calm the heck down, he supplied his source; if you want to believe the state is lying about this I can’t help you, the only thing I’ll add is that if you assume this data is true then it corrects Florida’s death count to be more in line with Arizona and Texas; I don’t think it’s fake.

I am calm. You misunderstood.

Yes, he supplied the link to the state's data. He also supplied a graph that he claims represents that data. I am not saying the state is lying. Show me where I did? I didn't say the poster was either.

I am questioning the graph's accuracy since it's source wasn't specified.
By knowing the source, I can make a judgement on the accuracy of the information without doing all the work of checking it myself.

If your going to post statements or graph's or numbers from others, you need to be able to show they are correct by listing the source.

Also, I think Florida is terrible in handling this. I live in MA, our daily death data report also contains deaths that happened on other days, but I have been watching that. Every days report gives a graph for daily counts going back the last 2 months. You can see where they revised the numbers. Most revisions are for the last few days, the most I saw was for a week. What Florida is doing is showing bureaucratic incompetence.

 

[GoofGoof]

75% of them are legacy.

View attachment 482422

Answers the question of why we were not seeing the death numbers go up despite cases Spiking for a few weeks. Looks like the lag is pretty bad. I am starting to think that daily reported deaths is not going to be a good number to look at to understand what the situation really is.

 

[Andrew C]

Answers the question of why we were not seeing the death numbers go up despite cases Spiking for a few weeks. Looks like the lag is pretty bad. I am starting to think that daily reported deaths is not going to be a good number to look at to understand what the situation really is.

I imagine the lag isn’t like this for all deaths.
I feel like we were discussing something similar for NJ or CT just the other day?

 

[bpiper]

Answers the question of why we were not seeing the death numbers go up despite cases Spiking for a few weeks. Looks like the lag is pretty bad. I am starting to think that daily reported deaths is not going to be a good number to look at to understand what the situation really is.

It will be but, your just going to have to wait 3-4 weeks for it to catch up with reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

I imagine the lag isn’t like this for all deaths.
I feel like we were discussing something similar for NJ or CT just the other day?

It will be but, your just going to have to wait 3-4 weeks for it to catch up with reality.

My point is that one of the positives we had in FL was even though cases were spiking pretty bad hospitals were not initially under stress and death numbers were not increasing at a rate that kept pace with cases. There was a lot of speculation that the main reason for that was the lower median age of positive cases. Younger people not getting as sick. Now we are starting to see some stress on the hospitals. Not a reason for panic, but it’s definitely getting worse. In addition we are starting to see an increase in deaths reported but those deaths are on a lag so if we go back and look at the days those deaths actually occurred it seems like deaths were increasing more than we realized. Again, not a reason to panic, but definitely not positive trends. The median age is also going up a little. Still much lower than Mar/Apr timeframe but it could be a sign of the start of second level infections coming from the bar crowd.

 

[Beacon Joe]

Infuriating

LOL. That's not what it was supposedly about. Remember when the lockdowns started? It was all supposedly about non overwhelming the medical system. Remember "15 days to slow the spread?" LOLOLLOL that was 119 days ago.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

LOL. That's not what it was supposedly about. Remember when the lockdowns started? It was all supposedly about non overwhelming the medical system. Remember "15 days to slow the spread?" LOLOLLOL that was 119 days ago.

but the point now is that we are 6 months into this thing and the hospitals are overwhelmed in numerous cities. That should not be the case.

 

[lazyboy97o]

LOL. That's not what it was supposedly about. Remember when the lockdowns started? It was all supposedly about non overwhelming the medical system. Remember "15 days to slow the spread?" LOLOLLOL that was 119 days ago.

The 15 days was always a starting point, not a claim of a set timeline.

 

[Jrb1979]

My point is that one of the positives we had in FL was even though cases were spiking pretty bad hospitals were not initially under stress and death numbers were not increasing at a rate that kept pace with cases. There was a lot of speculation that the main reason for that was the lower median age of positive cases. Younger people not getting as sick. Now we are starting to see some stress on the hospitals. Not a reason for panic, but it’s definitely getting worse. In addition we are starting to see an increase in deaths reported but those deaths are on a lag so if we go back and look at the days those deaths actually occurred it seems like deaths were increasing more than we realized. Again, not a reason to panic, but definitely not positive trends. The median age is also going up a little. Still much lower than Mar/Apr timeframe but it could be a sign of the start of second level infections coming from the bar crowd.

No reason to panic but now is the time do something about it. Make masks mandatory, shut down bars I don't know but do something. Instead all is said everything is ok. Like I said I just shake my head.

 

[milordsloth]

I am calm. You misunderstood.

Yes, he supplied the link to the state's data. He also supplied a graph that he claims represents that data. I am not saying the state is lying. Show me where I did? I didn't say the poster was either.

I am questioning the graph's accuracy since it's source wasn't specified.
By knowing the source, I can make a judgement on the accuracy of the information without doing all the work of checking it myself.

If your going to post statements or graph's or numbers from others, you need to be able to show they are correct by listing the source.

Also, I think Florida is terrible in handling this. I live in MA, our daily death data report also contains deaths that happened on other days, but I have been watching that. Every days report gives a graph for daily counts going back the last 2 months. You can see where they revised the numbers. Most revisions are for the last few days, the most I saw was for a week. What Florida is doing is showing bureaucratic incompetence.

Alright, I just wasted a few minutes and checked the PDF. Only the first 66 pages are deaths, so I converted those pages to an excel file. Sorted for newly identified deaths, confirming the total of 112 and 10 unknowns. Sorting those deaths for July gets us to, wait for it...

31 deaths in July. Perfectly in line with the graphic shown by @xdan0920. Here's a screenshot of the sheet sorted for July:

 

[bpiper]

but the point now is that we are 6 months into this thing and the hospitals are overwhelmed in numerous cities. That should not be the case.

Not up here in MA. We locked down hard. Opened up slowly and methodically and look at us now..... They didn't open up slowly and methodically.

177 new cases

25 deaths

1.9% positive rate

 

[bpiper]

Alright, I just wasted a few minutes and checked the PDF. Only the first 66 pages are deaths, so I converted those pages to an excel file. Sorted for newly identified deaths, confirming the total of 112 and 10 unknowns. Sorting those deaths for July gets us to, wait for it...

31 deaths in July. Perfectly in line with the graphic shown by @xdan0920. Here's a screenshot of the sheet sorted for July:

View attachment 482462

Thank you for doing this.

Extra points for showing your work....

 

[chrisvee]

So deaths have been rising but FL has a terrible lag in reporting the data.

And we can’t use the hospitalization data bc FL DOH doesn’t report daily new for COVID only cumulative current total.

New cases and positivity rate continue to increase which means infections are outpacing ability to find them.

FL seems like a risky place to visit right now.

 

[kong1802]

So now that we have finally gotten the answer on where the graph came from and have verified that the numbers are accurate...

Is a graph based on one day of “News Deaths” telling anything? Has anyone seen one that redistributes the deaths by date that they occurred vs when they were reported YTD?

Who had the excel sheet?

 

[milordsloth]

So now that we have finally gotten the answer on where the graph came from and have verified that the numbers are accurate...

Is a graph based on one day of “News Deaths” telling anything? Has anyone seen one that redistributes the deaths by date that they occurred vs when they were reported YTD?

Who had the excel sheet?

Hmmm.. Good point, now that I have the excel file I should be able to make my own graph. I'll give that a try later this evening

 

[lisa12000]

Do you have realtime triage data over in the US - we have NHS pathways which shows us whether individuals have accessed the online assessment tool (111) or rang 111 (no emergency phone line for advice) or 999 (emergency) specifically for Covid - now of course its flawed as you dont know whether people have had a positive test/accessed more than once/gone through assessment as intersted but it does give you an early indication of trends i.e. we have an issue with a local outbreak in Leicester and possibly Blackburn and this data acknowledges that - its an early indicator of possible issues prior to hospitalisations

NHS Pathways coronavirus triages - NHS Digital

Data showing coronavirus (COVID-19) assessments completed using NHS Pathways in support of NHS 111 telephone services.

digital.nhs.uk

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[MisterPenguin]

Coronavirus Live Updates: The Surge in U.S. Cases Is Driven Largely by States That Reopened Early

As President Trump pushes for schools to reopen, the country has set its fifth record for new cases in nine days. The T.S.A. said more than a thousand of its employees had tested positive.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DCBaker]

This is a case study from Catawba County Public Health Director, Jennifer McCracken (North Carolina), on the spread from a family gathering.

"Take, for example, a recent situation in Catawba County where more than two dozen people attended a family gathering. Folks did not wear masks or observe physical distancing at this gathering, and 14 people who attended subsequently tested positive for COVID-19. Before they started to show symptoms, they continued with their daily lives, such as going to work or taking a beach trip with other families. This set into motion a person-to-person contact chain that to date has spread COVID-19 to 41 people in 9 different families and 8 different workplaces."

Catawba County Government - Catawba County North Carolina

Catawba County, North Carolina, is located in the western part of the state in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

catawbacountync.gov

 

[mickeymiss]

Once again, this data is impossible to read without context. Florida is huge. We are not being told what type of transmission is driving this. They must have a clue. There's no expert guided leadership whatsoever. It matters to disinguish between high and low risk factors. Sittting around waiting in our homes for the virus to go away isn't a plan. Shuttering every business with rock solid safety plans is punitive.

What is driving the transmission in Florida? Why is that always left out of the data?