Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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chrisvee

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
mickeymiss said:
Your area discusses transmission patterns? Lucky. Our state has a nursing home problem but they don't explain where (generally) cases seem to be coming from outside of that. I have suspected for a long time that the "community spread" that they used to stir fear in the beginning was largely household. Important!! Other states like Florida and California aren't being transparent about what their patterns are. A basic outline of what kind of exposure is observed based on their tracing would be grand. They must know dog gone it 😉
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Well we don’t know if our neighbors have it or where they got it. I doubt privacy laws would allow that 😆.But we do know when numbers go up in a locality what age group and assessed cause was and can hear/see the actions that were taken in response. Whether those actions will contain things, I don’t know. I worry when I see our cases ticking up that it will get out of control.

Community spread means that people are infected who don’t know where or how they got it (ie didn’t travel to an area of known outbreak or encounter a person known to be sick). That an important thing to know because it speaks to prevalence of virus in an area.

ETA: The advice about fomites isn’t changing. Keep washing hands and not touching face is good protection against encountering the virus on surfaces.

What the article is saying is that when transmisison occurs in close quarters like indoor gatherings, they aren’t certainly yet if it’s bc droplets land or are inhaled by people or because people touch surfaces that are covered in droplets or bc there are clouds of droplets lingering airborne.
 
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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mickeymiss said:
Science is so hard that they backtrack on their own advice every other day? I'd rather them say nothing at all lol. Silly me assumed they gather a lot of good evidence before distributing it to the public 😉
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I’m not trying to defend the CDC or WHO because they have both had missteps in this whole pandemic, but this is a novel virus. The truth is we just don’t know everything yet with 100% confidence. We are learning stuff on the fly as time goes on. It would be great if these organizations could issue firm guidelines on what is safe and what is not with 100% certainty, but that just doesn’t exist right now. Some time in the distant future we will have that information. They are putting out guidelines based on the best information we have but its natural that guidelines will change as more information becomes available. The only way to be certain that your activity is 100% safe is to avoid prolonged contact with anyone outside your home. Everyone has to decide for themselves how much risk they want to take. Whether it’s just going to the grocery store and doctors appointments and other essential things or doing more ”risky” stuff like dining out regularly or visiting theme parks is a personal choice.
 
mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
chrisvee said:
Well we don’t know if our neighbors have it or where they got it. i doubt privacy laws would allow that 😆.But we do know when numbers go up in a locality what age group and assessed cause was and can hear/see the actions that were taken in response. Whether those actions will contain things, I don’t know. I worry when I see our cases ticking up that it will get out of control.

Community spread means that people are infected who don’t know where or how they got it (ie didn’t travel to an area of known outbreak or encounter a person known to be sick). That an important thing to know because it speaks to prevalence of virus in an area.
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My state said they included household contact as community spread. It's very misleading. There's a lot they could say without violating a single privacy law. I would like to know how many of the cases are being traced to a certain type of behavior. Florida and California have a lot of people to sample from. What are the patterns? Work? Parties? Family members? How many remained asymptomatic and were discovered incidentally?

The one thing that keeps me from going over the edge about influenza every year is that it more often spreads from people you know or spent time with. We will be in a better place if covid was similar. They must know something more than numbers.
 
G00fyDad

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
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mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Casper Gutman said:
What do you consider “overwhelming case numbers?”

Face-to-face contact, indoors, over longer periods of time does seem to be the most dangerous behavior by a significant margin. I don’t think press coverage has hidden this. Other kinds of contact CAN spread the virus, however, though they are less likely to do so. We have seen numerous grocery store outbreaks among staff.

Ultimately, the way to help everyone, vulnerable and otherwise, is to control the virus. A lot of other nations have done this.
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I would define overwhelming as cases per day that indicate a large percentage of people getting the virus. We have seen a lot of cases in many areas but still nowhere near a majority. We'd be seeing relentless transmission if it was spreading among strangers.

Grocery stores provide the perfect anedotal exercise. Everyone has to shop for food at least once a week. Most have to do it in person at busier times. When stay at home orders were imminent, people rushed every grocery store without masks or distancing. That behavior continued for weeks. The case loads never reflected any hint that grocery stores were causing transmission. This is further evidenced by most employees who test positive end up being the only ones with very rare exception. Of course the media will hone in on those exceptions. But the proof is in the pudding. Our numbers don't reflect transmission at stores anywhere. This speaks favorably for a conclusion that casual contact is very low risk. We can expand our productivity based on findings like that. Open every business with caution.

We went to get our curbside pick up and you'd never know there's a pandemic with the amount of cars in the lot. The vibe in this thread is so different from what's out in the world. I saw more older people at the outdoor mall in my town than any other age. I didn't see any business on the strip looking any less busy than usual. This is GOOD because our state has not had a spike. Casual life doesn't seem to be the risk. You have to navigate differently at work, at home and at various face to face gatherings. Gatherings are allowed ironically (as they should be) but businesses continue to be the scapegoats.

After 4 months of extreme measures taken to "control the virus", we need to distinguish between high and low risk like we do for every threat. Our own behavior is more meaningful than government orders. Give us the facts about cases.

End speech.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
mickeymiss said:
I would define overwhelming as cases per day that indicate a large percentage of people getting the virus. We have seen a lot of cases in many areas but still nowhere near a majority. We'd be seeing relentless transmission if it was spreading among strangers.

Grocery stores provide the perfect anedotal exercise. Everyone has to shop for food at least once a week. Most have to do it in person at busier times. When stay at home orders were imminent, people rushed every grocery store without masks or distancing. That behavior continued for weeks. The case loads never reflected any hint that grocery stores were causing transmission. This is further evidenced by most employees who test positive end up being the only ones with very rare exception. Of course the media will hone in on those exceptions. But the proof is in the pudding. Our numbers don't reflect transmission at stores anywhere. This speaks favorably for a conclusion that casual contact is very low risk. We can expand our productivity based on findings like that. Open every business with caution.

We went to get our curbside pick up and you'd never know there's a pandemic with the amount of cars in the lot. The vibe in this thread is so different from what's out in the world. I saw more older people at the outdoor mall in my town than any other age. I didn't see any business on the strip looking any less busy than usual. This is GOOD because our state has not had a spike. Casual life doesn't seem to be the risk. You have to navigate differently at work, at home and at various face to face gatherings. Gatherings are allowed ironically (as they should be) but businesses continue to be the scapegoats.

After 4 months of extreme measures taken to "control the virus", we need to distinguish between high and low risk like we do for every threat. Our own behavior is more meaningful than government orders. Give us the facts about cases.

End speech.
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Consistency would also be nice. For example, don’t be like a certain large city and ban all large outdoor events until September, with the exception of protests (not that there is anything wrong with protesting). I just roll my eyes and think to myself, “do you want your citizens to take precautions or not?” This is just one example. The lack of consistency on all levels drives me crazy. But, I do understand we have all been stuck in the middle of a game being played since January.
 
mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Then there's hyperbolic statements like this that seem to deliberately manipilate and scare the reader:

Surfaces are not a main way this spreads but, "if you touch a doorknob and then touch your face, you're infected"

Notice that they say infected, not exposed?

If every door handle and railing was causing the spread, this pandemic could never stabilize. Every flight, every meeting, every minor encounter would have had us overrun before we could blink.

I get why they have to cover something as a possibility but saying you are infected from touching a door handle is wildly speculative and likely wrong. You need to account for viral load and other factors. This is why constant transparency about what they ARE finding is critical. I can't imagine that anyone would disagree. People want apps that track people but they don't want health departments more accountable than they are? States that are experiencing spikes right now have a lot of people to draw information from. There's nothing to share about most likely modes of transmission? All of it is mysterious?

www.nytimes.com

What’s the Risk of Catching Coronavirus From a Surface?

Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
G00fyDad

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
1) Wear a mask. They work.
107485713_1975799642552673_3942333377263110280_n.jpg

2) WASH YOUR HANDS often.
3) Keep at least 6 feet from others when possible.
4) STAY HOME. If you HAVE to go out of your home to something other than work (groceries) then limit your time out and stay away from large crowds.
5) Don't touch things and then touch your face. COVID19 (among other things) lives on hard surfaces for up to 3 hours and porous surfaces for about 1 hour.
6) Don't spray your groceries with Lysol.
7) Don't inject cleaner into your body or food.

Not sure how much clearer any of that needs to be. :cautious:
 
kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
mickeymiss said:
Then there's hyperbolic statements like this that seem to deliberately manipilate and scare the reader:

Surfaces are not a main way this spreads but, "if you touch a doorknob and then touch your face, you're infected"

Notice that they say infected, not exposed?

If every door handle and railing was causing the spread, this pandemic could never stabilize. Every flight, every meeting, every minor encounter would have had us overrun before we could blink.

I get why they have to cover something as a possibility but saying you are infected from touching a door handle is wildly speculative and likely wrong. You need to account for viral load and other factors. This is why constant transparency about what they ARE finding is critical. I can't imagine that anyone would disagree. People want apps that track people but they don't want health departments more accountable than they are? States that are experiencing spikes right now have a lot of people to draw information from. There's nothing to share about most likely modes of transmission? All of it is mysterious?

www.nytimes.com

What’s the Risk of Catching Coronavirus From a Surface?

Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

I think your beef is with the headlines and journalistic "spin" of the briefs.

And you aren't wrong.

In today's world, you gotta do the research on your own, unfortunately.
 
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