Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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xdan0920

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
kong1802 said:
I think it's obvious they have an agenda.

So for funsies, since their greatly sourced and well written article left out the statistical impact of those labs, I went ahead and did a quick and dirty version. I'm sure with only two people on staff, they didn't have the time....

So if you count all the positive numbers from labs reporting 100%, that accounts for approx 4,370 positive cases. Let's just throw them out. They are obviously misleading the public and the good folks at Alachua Chronicle have rooted them out. Nice try hospitals.

Problem is, before we remove them, there were 268,024 total positive cases. So unfortunately, 4,370 positive doesn't move the needle any...........

I bet it's a bigger conspiracy. I hope they get to the bottom of it.
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It's not a conspiracy you nut job. It's bad data reporting. What is so hard to understand here? What about the labs reporting 90% positive or 80% you think that seems kosher? No conspiracy. You are constructing a straw man and then ripping him to bits with a chainsaw.

Listen, you want to think we are doing a great job and gathering and disseminating the data on this pandemic, be my guest.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
xdan0920 said:
It's not a conspiracy you nut job. It's bad data reporting. What is so hard to understand here? What about the labs reporting 90% positive or 80% you think that seems kosher? No conspiracy. You are constructing a straw man and then ripping him to bits with a chainsaw.

Listen, you want to think we are doing a great job and gathering and disseminating the data on this pandemic, be my guest.
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If the information presented is accurate, it’s concerning at least at a local level. I don’t really care who wrote the piece. We should all want accurate data, no matter how big or small the impact may end up being.
 
kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
xdan0920 said:
It's not a conspiracy you nut job. It's bad data reporting. What is so hard to understand here? What about the labs reporting 90% positive or 80% you think that seems kosher? No conspiracy. You are constructing a straw man and then ripping him to bits with a chainsaw.

Listen, you want to think we are doing a great job and gathering and disseminating the data on this pandemic, be my guest.
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But saying "bad data reporting" says nothing. We need the impact. Trying to spin a few "Oh look, these guys over here are showing too high a percent positive, the whole thing is fubar now" isn't the correct outlook. It's agenda driven. Otherwise those two bloggers would have taken the time to give us an actual statistical analysis instead of trying to focus people on the 180 sites that reported 1 case by misdirecting to the 100% line. Don't fall for it.

I knew it was deeper. Let's throw out everything above 80%... My guess, after looking at what I did, is that that still wouldn't be statistically impactful. If you want to throw out all the data because two bloggers highlighted a small population, go ahead. I'm going to stick with actual scientists and journalists.
 
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Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
xdan0920 said:
No, I am not making that argument. I think sensibile physical distance restrictions probably are the way to go. However, I am simply pointing out that bad data is bad. Do you disagree?

So, you think they are what? Lying?


edit to add....\


Scroll to page 28 or so, and start looking at the lab reports.
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So then I guess you're also going to discredit the labs that reported 0 positive cases, too? Or is it possible that maybe the law of averages is evening out all of those 100% labs and 0% labs and the 100% are in aces only testing people with symptoms or known exposure and the 0% are just testing anyone who came through their doors for other reasons (and may have a high % of patients who self-isolated for medical reasons, for example). The argument you and the article you cited are making is cherry-picking the data that's convenient to the "it's not that serious" argument while ignoring the principles of statistics and any plausible explanations for why some labs have higher percentages than others.

In other words, someone could use those 0% labs to argue the exact opposite of you and claim the "real" percent positive is closer to 30%, but that would be equally wrong.

But please explain how the number of cases is rising compared to days with similar amounts of tests performed 2 weeks ago if the percent of positive tests isn't rising?
 
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kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
Andrew C said:
If the information presented is accurate, it’s concerning at least at a local level. I don’t really care who wrote the piece. We should all want accurate data, no matter how big or small the impact may end up being.
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Weird they didn't reach out to anyone for further follow up, huh?

I mean, if concerned, why not do more than blog?

"We reached out to x for comment" or "we petitioned the state"

You know, what journalists should do.

Not just a hit and run misdirection to make people try and question the whole deal...

Maybe they did, but those lines didn't make it in the story in time for print........
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
kong1802 said:
Weird they didn't reach out to anyone for further follow up, huh?

I mean, if concerned, why not do more than blog?

"We reached out to x for comment" or "we petitioned the state"

You know, what journalists should do.

Not just a hit and run misdirection to make people try and question the whole deal...

Maybe they did, but those lines didn't make it in the story in time for print........
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You’re getting very defensive. I simply pointed out that bad data is a problem. I hope it isn’t more widespread.
 
kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
Andrew C said:
then we should probably strive for accuracy at all levels.
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We should, but in that spirit.

Not some hit piece that is designed to do what it did, make people throw out the entire set. That's dangerous. Especially when you look deeper and see that it doesn't have a meaningful impact.

Hold those places accountable that are reporting 100%. Find out why. Ask. Don't insinuate that all the data is bad and can't be trusted.

Especially from an article that goes out of its way to say "immigrant farm workers".........

The framing was obvious from the second paragraph........
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
xdan0920 said:
So much of the country is nowhere close to full speed ahead. And even if the government opened everything tomorrow. No more gov mandated closures. Actual full speed ahead. The data would still matter to us as citizens. So we could make informed decisions.
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I was talking about FL not the rest of the country. As far as making informed decisions, I agree. When we just discredit whatever data doesn’t meet our desired decisions then the data is no longer relevant and decisions are no longer informed. Specific to FL, as case counts went up we heard for weeks and months that increases in cases were irrelevant and all that mattered was percent positive. Now percent positive is up and the numbers are now bogus. Convenient.

How do we know the blogger that wrote that piece is even correct or honest? I am pretty skeptical when nobody else notices something so dramatic and the state controls the data reported so why would they allow bad data that makes the situation look really bad continue to be reported. They would be all over this. It’s a real stretch to me.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
kong1802 said:
We should, but in that spirit.

Not some hit piece that is designed to do what it did, make people throw out the entire set. That's dangerous. Especially when you look deeper and see that it doesn't have a meaningful impact.

Hold those places accountable that are reporting 100%. Find out why. Ask. Don't insinuate that all the data is bad and can't be trusted.

Especially from an article that goes out of its way to say "immigrant farm workers".........

The framing was obvious from the second paragraph........
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hah. Ok then.
 
DisneyDebRob

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity Tuesday, according to data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less. The data comes as the state, now the nation's No. 1 hot spot for the virus, reports 7,361 new COVID-19 cases. Gov. Ron DeSantis refused Tuesday to say why his state has not begun reporting the daily COVID-19 hospitalization rate, the Miami Herald reported. On Monday, he said that the outbreak in Florida had "stabilized.”

Does anyone know why hospitalizations are not being reported daily? I’m asking because I don’t know. Did anyone hear anything?
 
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Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
DisneyDebRob said:
At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity Tuesday, according to data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less. The data comes as the state, now the nation's No. 1 hot spot for the virus, reports 7,361 new COVID-19 cases. Gov. Ron DeSantis refused Tuesday to say why his state has not begun reporting the daily COVID-19 hospitalization rate, the Miami Herald reported. On Monday, he said that the outbreak in Florida had "stabilized.”

Does anyone know why hospitalizations are not being reported daily? I’m asking because I don’t know. Did anyone hear anything?
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If I had to guess, I'd say it's because it's harder to get people to believe the outbreak has stabilized if you're also sharing data that shows hospitalizations are increasing. But my wife sometimes says I'm too cynical, so take that for what it's worth. :)
 
kong1802

kong1802

Well-Known Member
DisneyDebRob said:
At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity Tuesday, according to data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less. The data comes as the state, now the nation's No. 1 hot spot for the virus, reports 7,361 new COVID-19 cases. Gov. Ron DeSantis refused Tuesday to say why his state has not begun reporting the daily COVID-19 hospitalization rate, the Miami Herald reported. On Monday, he said that the outbreak in Florida had "stabilized.”

Does anyone know why hospitalizations are not being reported daily? I’m asking because I don’t know. Did anyone hear anything?
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For some reason I thought he reversed course on that and decided to start reporting those.

Not sure on the reason besides what seems really obvious. Hopefully it’s not that.
 
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