Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[legwand77]

OK, I’ll play along. So all the data needs to be considered not just certain metrics. Here’s the primary data we have looking at the last 2 weeks:

1. A large spike in overall new cases
2. A substantial increase in percent positive
3. Hospital capacity is not overrun but in certain areas we are seeing changes to practices like pausing elective surgeries and in the case of Houston using their children’s hospital for adult ICU overflow.
4. The death rate remains constant and has not spiked with cases

So out of those 4 factors to consider, 1 and 2 look very bad, 3 is neutral and 4 is very good. Now based on looking at all of the data is it “hysterics” to say the situation on the ground is not trending in a good direction and action needs to be taken? Obviously the governors of TX and FL felt there was enough of a concern to pull back on plans and some at the local level of government have done even more.

missed a big one,

5. Majority of cases are young and or asymptomatic or mild cases

plus 1 and 2 are roughly the same thing, glad you agree 4 is good, but still think we should not mention #4 in posts?

 

[legwand77]

You disagree that in a month*, we will have a month's worth of data?

That's the point of my first paragraph. So if that is where the disagreement is, I really don't know what to say.

*technically 1 month, 4 days.

well if that is what you mean yes technically we will have the data in 4 weeks or even 3 weeks because we will know it after two weeks. All you are doing is trying to change the "wait two more weeks" to wait "four more weeks" using Iran as an example and "epidemiologists" on twitter, reddit, facebook or whichever social media. That as an opinion is perfectly valid.

 

[GoofGoof]

missed a big one,

5. Majority of cases are young and or asymptomatic or mild cases

plus 1 and 2 are roughly the same thing, glad you agree 4 is good, but still think we should not mention #4 in posts?

Ok so let’s do it that way. Let’s combine 1 & 2 and add young people as a data point. So

1. Cases are spiking and so is percent positive
2. Hospitals are holding steady
3. Deaths haven‘t spiked
4. Cases are young and mild

So if that’s the relevant data then and 1 aspect is negative, 1 is neutral and 2 are positive. Ignoring the neural data 1/3 of the other data points are trending very negative. So in that regard if we are considering all of the data is it “hysterics” to say there’s an issue that needs to be addressed?

 

[hopemax]

well if that is what you mean yes technically we will have the data in 4 weeks or even 3 weeks because we will know it after two weeks. All you are doing is trying to change the "wait two more weeks" to wait "four more weeks" using Iran as an example and "epidemiologists" on twitter, reddit, facebook or whichever social media. That as an opinion is perfectly valid.

I stated your option, I stated my opinion. I stated in one month we will know either way (both of our opinions lie within a 1 month window). That's all. I didn't say your opinion was invalid. Just different than mine.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Wait for it...

 

[Chip Chipperson]

1 & 2 aren't the same. Wasn't the argument here and elsewhere that increased cases didn't mean anything bad because increased testing leads to more cases found and that the % positive was more important? Now that % positive is increasing you're saying they're "basically the same" even though increased cases with static or decreasing % positive was the reason the increased count didn't matter. You can't have it both ways.

 

[GoofGoof]

1 & 2 aren't the same. Wasn't the argument here and elsewhere that increased cases didn't mean anything bad because increased testing leads to more cases found and that the % positive was more important? Now that % positive is increasing you're saying they're "basically the same" even though increased cases with static or decreasing % positive was the reason the increased count didn't matter. You can't have it both ways.

I don’t disagree, but even when you combine them it doesn‘t change the point I was making.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I don’t disagree, but even when you combine them it doesn‘t change the point I was making.

I believe chip was actually agreeing with you. You are correct. I also think they are not the same.

 

[legwand77]

Ok so let’s do it that way. Let’s combine 1 & 2 and add young people as a data point. So

1. Cases are spiking and so is percent positive
2. Hospitals are holding steady
3. Deaths haven‘t spiked
4. Cases are young and mild

So if that’s the relevant data then and 1 aspect is negative, 1 is neutral and 2 are positive. Ignoring the neural data 1/3 of the other data points are trending very negative. So in that regard if we are considering all of the data is it “hysterics” to say there’s an issue that needs to be addressed?

I guess you don't see how your simplification of your hypothetical is problematic.

 

[legwand77]

I stated your option, I stated my opinion. I stated in one month we will know either way (both of our opinions lie within a 1 month window). That's all. I didn't say your opinion was invalid. Just different than mine.

so it is "just four more weeks" for you correct?

 

[GoofGoof]

I guess you don't see how your simplification of your hypothetical is problematic.

No, I think it’s pretty obvious what the problem is. You can’t claim everything is fine and people are just having a hysterical overreaction to rising case numbers then also claim you are considering all of the data when both daily cases and percent positive are rising. So either everything isn‘t fine (my opinion) or you are ignoring cases and percent positive.

 

[Andrew C]

Mike Pence in Dallas as Gov. Abbott says COVID-19 has taken ‘very dangerous turn in Texas'

Vice President Mike Pence on Sunday pledged to commit the resources Texas needs to win the fight against COVID-19, and he urged Americans to be diligent about...

www.google.com

 

[legwand77]

No, I think it’s pretty obvious what the problem is. You can’t claim everything is fine and people are just having a hysterical overreaction to rising case numbers then also claim you are considering all of the data when both daily cases and percent positive are rising. So either everything isn‘t fine (my opinion) or you are ignoring cases and percent positive.

I have never said everything is fine, far from it, no matter how much you keep saying I did. I have said deaths are dropping and hospitalizations are steady and that is good news. I also said numerous times, testing and discovering positive cases is a good thing.

Florida hospitals are saying just today, please come in if you are sick even for non-covid reasons. Doesn't sound like hospitals are concerned about being overrun adn have plenty of room and capacity. They said the fear out there about hospitals being overrun is keeping people from going to the hospital. Very concerning for them. Also saying they are theorizing the less aggressive version of virus is spreading now. - source Desantis press conference today,

Might be good if some here watch it, rather than extrapolating data from Iran (not directed at goofgoof ), would help.

 

[GoofGoof]

Mike Pence in Dallas as Gov. Abbott says COVID-19 has taken ‘very dangerous turn in Texas'

Vice President Mike Pence on Sunday pledged to commit the resources Texas needs to win the fight against COVID-19, and he urged Americans to be diligent about...

www.google.com

Kudos to VP and governor for taking Swift action and acknowledging the problem. Highlights for me include these quotes:

“President Trump wanted us to be here today with the developments over the last two weeks with the rising positivity and the rising number of cases with a very simple message and that is to use people of Texas: We’re with you,” Pence said.

About two weeks ago something changed, he said. However, Pence said that he believed it was not the reopening, but the behavior of people not wearing masks or social distancing.

Pence urged everyone to wear a face covering. He wore a mask as he came off Air Force 2, as did Abbott and other state officials who met the plane.

So Pence agrees that rising numbers of cases and percent positive is a big issue. His urging people to wear face coverings needs to be the new talking points at all times now. Hopefully it will be. Couldn’t agree more that it’s not the re-opening that is the problem it’s people’s behavior.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have never said everything is fine, far from it.

OK. So we agree. There’s a big problem even if deaths aren‘t going up and hospitals aren’t overrun. The government is trying to address it now. Hopefully that works.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

So Pence agrees that rising numbers of cases and percent positive is a big issue.

Another one of my Waffle House indicators

 

[GoofGoof]

Another one of my Waffle House indicators

The mask thing is a bigger turning point. I hope that continues.

 

[legwand77]

OK. So we agree. There’s a big problem even if deaths aren‘t going up and hospitals aren’t overrun. The government is trying to address it now. Hopefully that works.

Glad you agree with what I have been saying all along. Thank you. To be clear, what is that big problem?

 

[giantgolfer]

Strictly speaking as an outsider here...I don’t post much on here aside from looking for opinions about my upcoming trips to WDW with
My wife and kids. I generally just read the threads and consider myself smarter because of it. There’s a great group of posters here. I do feel compelled to post my opinion though about how some posters on here constantly mention “good news” in regards to cases rising or falling.

I don’t see how positive cases rising is in any way “good news”. Yes, there is more testing. But if positive results continue to rise as well, how can we look at that as “good news”? Yes, it appears the younger generation are a large majority of the new positive cases. They can recover quicker, absolutely. But why is that “good news”? They can still infect other people, correct? That’s BAD news! The only “good news” is more testing with decreasing positive cases. That may be a simple way to look at a difficult situation, but I think that’s what most of us should be doing. Trust our healthcare heroes.

I’m getting off my soapbox now. Thanks for listening.

 

[legwand77]

Strictly speaking as an outsider here...I don’t post much on here aside from looking for opinions about my upcoming trips to WDW with
My wife and kids. I generally just read the threads and consider myself smarter because of it. There’s a great group of posters here. I do feel compelled to post my opinion though about how some posters on here constantly mention “good news” in regards to cases rising or falling.

I don’t see how positive cases rising is in any way “good news”. Yes, there is more testing. But if positive results continue to rise as well, how can we look at that as “good news”? Yes, it appears the younger generation are a large majority of the new positive cases. They can recover quicker, absolutely. But why is that “good news”? They can still infect other people, correct? That’s BAD news! The only “good news” is more testing with decreasing positive cases. That may be a simple way to look at a difficult situation, but I think that’s what most of us should be doing. Trust our healthcare heroes.

I’m getting off my soapbox now. Thanks for listening.

Quickanswer , they then know they have it and can act on that information and quarantine. Doctors and the Desantis echoed it again just today that it is good news to catch these positive cases.