Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[lilypgirl]

Saw these stats online ! Can anyone confirm
or deny? . Interesting if true how it spreads like wild fire but isn’t that deadly but if you dare to take the necessary precautions and take your family vacation to Disney you are selfish and dangerous jerk!
Death rate of those that get COVID: 1.3%

Survival Rate of those that get COVID: 𝟗𝟖.𝟕%

 

[GoofGoof]

Saw these stats online ! Can anyone confirm
or deny? . Interesting if true how it spreads like wild fire but isn’t that deadly but if you dare to take the necessary precautions and take your family vacation to Disney you are selfish and dangerous jerk!
Death rate of those that get COVID: 1.3%

Survival Rate of those that get COVID: 𝟗𝟖.𝟕%

The official case and death numbers both worldwide and in the US put the mortality rate just below 5%. Take total deaths and divide by total cases. Survival rate is just anyone who didn’t die so 100% less the percent of people who died. The rate has moved around a little since the beginning although in certain places spiked higher and in other places was much lower. Some people take the fact that more cases occurred but the people were never tested and estimate up the total number of cases so the death rate gets lower the more cases you assume went unreported. That’s probably why someone says 1.3% instead of the reported amount. There’s no way to really know how many positive cases there were that went untested. We know for sure there were some.

Edit: I don‘t think people taking a trip to WDW with their families are being selfish or a dangerous jerk. If you go to WDW and fight the mask or physical distancing rules or attempt to skirt them by holding a drink cup and leaving your mask off then you are being selfish and a jerk IMHO

 

[hopemax]

Florida is in the 14 day window of new cases dramatically rising, yet hospitalizations are steady and might even have go down overall. Hospitals are currently operating as normal. We would have really started to see a significant jump in hospitalizations by now. It will be much more evident this week. Probably won't see that in a headline.

So did you not see my post that in Iran it took 24 days from when cases started climbing again for the death rate to start to climb? May 1-May 25. Or just not think it was relevant or predictive?

 

[legwand77]

So did you not see my post that in Iran it took 24 days from when cases started climbing again for the death rate to start to climb? May 1-May 25. Or just not think it was relevant or predictive?

Sure saw that, a bit confirmation bias there, very much an outlier either way. If you don't see why it is problematic to compare Florida with a third world county...well go ahead and hang your reasoning on Iran. and yes there might also be a good joke there somewhere

 

[Miss Bella]

Sure saw that, a bit confirmation bias there, very much an outlier either way. If you don't see why it is problematic to compare Florida with a third world county...and yes there might also be a good joke there somewhere

Healthcare does make a difference in outcomes. No doubt about that.

 

[legwand77]

Healthcare does make a difference in outcomes. No doubt about that.

if the trends continue like they are , the twisting and reach for reasoning why the deaths are not exponentially going up will only get farther out there next week.

 

[hopemax]

Sure saw that, a bit confirmation bias there, very much an outlier either way. If you don't see why it is problematic to compare Florida with a third world county...well go ahead and hang your reasoning on Iran. and yes there might also be a good joke there somewhere

Virus doesn’t care, progression is predictable. But if Iran is 3rd World and we are supposedly first world. Then wouldn’t it cause a longer delay not shorter for deaths to show up here than Iran? So if Iran took 24 days we should expect it to take longer, right? We’ve got better care, right?

 

[xdan0920]

The official case and death numbers both worldwide and in the US put the mortality rate just below 5%. Take total deaths and divide by total cases. Survival rate is just anyone who didn’t die so 100% less the percent of people who died. The rate has moved around a little since the beginning although in certain places spiked higher and in other places was much lower. Some people take the fact that more cases occurred but the people were never tested and estimate up the total number of cases so the death rate gets lower the more cases you assume went unreported. That’s probably why someone says 1.3% instead of the reported amount. There’s no way to really know how many positive cases there were that went untested. We know for sure there were some.

“Some”

Virus doesn’t care, progression is predictable. But if Iran is 3rd World and we are supposedly first world. Then wouldn’t it causes a longer delay not shorter for deaths to show up here than Iran? So if Iran took 24 days we should expect it to take longer, right? We’ve got better care, right?

Out of curiosity, why did you choose Iran as your example?

 

[hopemax]

Out of curiosity, why did you choose Iran as your example?

It was an example in a discussion among epidemiologists on social media. There aren’t many examples of countries that have seen a resurgence to choose from. China, had one. Iran had their first wave early in the virus. Europe was also early the first time around but has not seen a resurgence. Other countries are still experiencing their first go at this, not second.

 

[GoofGoof]

“Some”

Out of curiosity, why did you choose Iran as your example?

What’s wrong with “some“? Are you saying we know the exact number?

 

[Rider]

 

[Miss Bella]

if the trends continue like they are , the twisting and reach for reasoning why the deaths are not exponentially going up will only get farther out there next week.

I think people put way to much faith in these graphs and charts they don’t show the real picture.

 

[DisneyCane]

So did you not see my post that in Iran it took 24 days from when cases started climbing again for the death rate to start to climb? May 1-May 25. Or just not think it was relevant or predictive?

Sure saw that, a bit confirmation bias there, very much an outlier either way. If you don't see why it is problematic to compare Florida with a third world county...well go ahead and hang your reasoning on Iran. and yes there might also be a good joke there somewhere

In NY at the peak the deaths lagged by maybe 3 days. NJ was a little over a week. Remember, there is a lag from illness onset to the reporting of a case on average due to the time to seek out a test, have the sample taken and the test run and reported.

 

[hopemax]

Also, @legwand77 says we should be seeing it by now. I am following what the epidemiologists say, and that we won't see it until Disneyland's birthday week. The good news is that we should all agree that by Aug 1, we will have an answer. If legwand is right, there will be a month of data, if the epidemiologists are right we will have 2 weeks of data.

I wish we could give the @TheMom a break and not post daily, "the death number is improving, this proves everything is fine" until then? Just take the numbers as they come in, comment on good/bad/happy/sad, but without all the back and forth "this proves something!" But if virus is gonna virus, Internet is going to Internet.

 

[hopemax]

In NY at the peak the deaths lagged by maybe 3 days. NJ was a little over a week. Remember, there is a lag from illness onset to the reporting of a case on average due to the time to seek out a test, have the sample taken and the test run and reported.

In NY, due to lack of tests, we were testing people who were already on death's door in ICUs & hospitals. Now we are testing people in parking lots. You don't think that changes lag time?

 

[jaklgreen]

No, it did not coincide with the protests. If it did you'd expect to see big spikes in MN, NY and PA - all sites of the biggest protests. The reality is this does well in air conditioned environments where people aren't masked. This coincides with Phase 2 of most states reopening - higher capacity restaurants, bars open, etc.

This is why I am surprised they closed the beaches. If they showed that the protests had no significant increase to covid cases, because they were outdoors, why close the beaches? Completely understand the bars/restaurants. It just seems a bit of a contradiction.

 

[xdan0920]

What’s wrong with “some“? Are you saying we know the exact number?

We know it’s more then some. Closer to a metric crapload.

 

[DisneyCane]

In NY, due to lack of tests, we were testing people who were already on death's door in ICUs & hospitals. Now we are testing people in parking lots. You don't think that changes lag time?

Even on the downslope as testing became available in quantity, the lag didn't really change. I included NJ also to show a state with a longer lag.

It doesn't change the fact that, no matter what the actual lag is from disease onset, the lag from case reporting will not be the same. It will be especially variable for asymptomatic positives because it's just as likely that they were infected 2 days or 2 weeks before the test.

I think the main point is that this recent spike in FL began over two weeks ago and there is no sign of any significant increase in the number of daily fatalities. This consistency has remained while the daily cases reported have been 2-5 times the peak from back in April.

Early indications are that the new infections are, in large part, occurring in people who are not very likely to die and that the people who are more likely to die are staying away from the people getting infected.

 

[GoofGoof]

We know it’s more then some. Closer to a metric crapload.

Whatever floats your boat. Replace “some” with “metric crapload“ and the entire point of my post doesn’t change. What we know for sure is the number of total cases is definitely more than the number reported so the actual mortality rate is lower than the almost 5% from the official cases. Until we have mass antibody testing that’s actually accurate we won’t know how much more.

 

[DisneyCane]

This is why I am surprised they closed the beaches. If they showed that the protests had no significant increase to covid cases, because they were outdoors, why close the beaches? Completely understand the bars/restaurants. It just seems a bit of a contradiction.

I think the beaches are more of an issue of drawing crowds to the restaurants and things near the beach. Even if you limit capacity, people will be bunched together waiting to get in and some restaurants might push the envelope with distancing if there are large numbers of customers clamoring to get in. I don't think the concern is the people on the beach in baking sun with 500% humidity and 1000 degree temperatures (slight exaggeration but that's what it feels like down here the last few days).