Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[easyrowrdw]

Just to clarify those are preprints, some of the detailed posts on this board are better thought out than one preprint you listed,, it is just making interpretations and guesses based on charts and data. Not saying right or wrong but they are not peer reviewed studies etc.

Looks like I missed your edit during my previous response.

You say they're, "just making interpretations and guesses based on charts and data?" That's part of what epidemiologists do. They're building infection models to examine different scenarios. That's not guessing. From the first article: Mathematical modeling has been influential in providing deeper understanding on the transmission mechanisms and burden of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to the development of public health policy and understanding.

But fine, throw out the third article because it's not through the full peer-review process yet. No problem. What's the rationale for ignoring the other studies that have completed the peer-review process? They also arrive at the same conclusion regarding the effectiveness of masks.

 

[jt04]

We have them. They've been posted in this thread all along. But, you're ignoring data that doesn't support your belief and you don't read the thread you're posing in, as typical.




There is a huge difference between any possible damage a cold causes and COVID. For example, death.

But here you are purposefully trivializing COVID with the most extremely bad analogy I've seen to date.




Comparing COVID to the cold is, by definition, downplaying it.

Life has to go on? How well has that worked out for 122 thousand in the U.S. and 465 thousand in the world who have died?

That's right, we're coming up on half a million people dead from COVID.

And you want to compare it to a cold.

As I made clear earlier those numbers can and have been skewed to generate a narrative. Even people who died in car accidents and who tested positive were counted. Nursing homes where completely avoidable deaths took place are counted. Thousands of people die everyday and there are huge numbers of deaths in years before this pandemic.

Finally, I read that 25% of colds previous to this year were from this virus but different strains. So anyone who has had four colds in their life (who hasn't?) probably has had the virus.

Not downplaying this situation especially for the vulnerable. But let's have some perspective. The scientific and medical community is still very split and they are researching as fast as they can. For some reason the legacy media has decided it has all the answers and this is the zombie apocalypse. History may prove, however, that this was the greatest mass hysteria event in human history. It is still unknown.

What seems certain is that unless you have a very weakened immune system or serious conditions, it isn't life threatening.

This isn't the plague or leprosy. Thankfully.

 

[legwand77]

Looks like I missed your edit during my previous response.

You say they're, "just making interpretations and guesses based on charts and data?" That's part of what epidemiologists do. They're building infection models to examine different scenarios. That's not guessing. From the first article: Mathematical modeling has been influential in providing deeper understanding on the transmission mechanisms and burden of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to the development of public health policy and understanding.

But fine, throw out the third article because it's not through the full peer-review process yet. No problem. What's the rationale for ignoring the other studies that have completed the peer-review process? They also arrive at the same conclusion regarding the effectiveness of masks.

I did not say throw out the article or ignore them, just clarified that those were preprints. That is all. Preprints are useful for the reason you stated but were not peer reviewed studies.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Actually there's quite a discrepancy right now and people are waiting for clarification. The news is reporting that there was a reported 3500 cases, but all of the official dashboards show 4700. So if it is 4700, that's quite an increase.

I don't know where the news or worldometers got their number but the PDF matches the dashboard so pretty sure the higher number is correct.

According to who? The FL dashboard showed another record of 4600.

Worldometer provides links to their sources. I think they will add to the tally as new information comes in and then they adjust the next day. We reported 441 new cases today in NJ but Worldometer only lists us with 194 new cases. Their total cases also exceeds our dashboard.

The total Worldometer cases for FL is 97,291, but I don't know how that matches Florida's official tally.

Regardless, I want to thank California for pushing NJ down to 3rd place and Florida for its valiant effort in trying to get us down to 4th place. The words "Pyrrhic victory" come to mind!

It is certainly good that more people seem to be recovering and that hospitalizations are not escalating in a dramatic rate, for the most part. I would assume that testing more people adds those who are positive who might have never needed more than home care.

 

[SoFloMagic]

According to who? The FL dashboard showed another record of 4600.

Florida Dept of emergency management was originally reporting a lower number, but has now updated. Some media used their data and were reporting the apparently incorrect 3500. DEM now shows 4,671, 13.59%

DEM site as of now:

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Florida Dept of emergency management was originally reporting a lower number, but has now updated. Some media used their data and were reporting the apparently incorrect 3500. DEM now shows 4,671, 13.59%

DEM site as of now: View attachment 478236

YIKES

 

[SoFloMagic]

What seems certain is that unless you have a very weakened immune system or serious conditions, it isn't life threatening.

This isn't the plague or leprosy. Thankfully.

No, but it appears to be very contagious and is certainly deadly to certain groups, so we should definitely be careful not to feed into the "it's a cold" narrative which is literally killing people as morons go out to bars and bring it home to their families and communities.

 

[lazyboy97o]

As I made clear earlier those numbers can and have been skewed to generate a narrative. Even people who died in car accidents and who tested positive were counted. Nursing homes where completely avoidable deaths took place are counted. Thousands of people die everyday and there are huge numbers of deaths in years before this pandemic.

Finally, I read that 25% of colds previous to this year were from this virus but different strains. So anyone who has had four colds in their life (who hasn't?) probably has had the virus.

Not downplaying this situation especially for the vulnerable. But let's have some perspective. The scientific and medical community is still very split and they are researching as fast as they can. For some reason the legacy media has decided it has all the answers and this is the zombie apocalypse. History may prove, however, that this was the greatest mass hysteria event in human history. It is still unknown.

What seems certain is that unless you have a very weakened immune system or serious conditions, it isn't life threatening.

This isn't the plague or leprosy. Thankfully.

Thank you for continuing to demonstrate your completely lack of knowledge or understanding regarding a variety of subjects.

US Plague Case 2000-2018: 106
US Plague Deaths 2000-2018: 12

Average US Leprosy Cases per Year: 150
Can’t Easily Find a number on US Leprosy deaths.

So you are at least right that this isn’t like the treatable plague or very treatable leprosy, it is a lot worse.

 

[SoFloMagic]

YIKES

I can't imagine the press if Disney actually goes through with opening while this is going on...

 

[oceanbreeze77]

View attachment 478237
I can't imagine the press if Disney actually goes through with opening while this is going on...

it just doesn't make sense to me!!! I am just mind blown by the fact Disney is pushing on.

 

[legwand77]

As I made clear earlier those numbers can and have been skewed to generate a narrative. Even people who died in car accidents and who tested positive were counted. Nursing homes where completely avoidable deaths took place are counted. Thousands of people die everyday and there are huge numbers of deaths in years before this pandemic.

Look at the chart below. The blue arrows show the trends in positivity. Now, if more testing is the cause of higher positivity, then the red arrows should always be pointing in the same direction and with the same slope as the red arrows.

And it doesn't.

View attachment 478217

Another case...

View attachment 478219

It's not "only seemingly" getting worse because there's more testing. That is false. Those who say it, knowing it's false, are lying.

This variable you are missing is how many covid cases are out there, we don't know that.

 

[legwand77]

we can only explain the correlation between testing and positivity rate so many times...

and leave out the rest of the explanation

 

[MadMax11]

View attachment 478237
I can't imagine the press if Disney actually goes through with opening while this is going on...

the percent of people testing positive is a concern in a lot of southern states right now...including Florida and my home state of TX.

 

[SoFloMagic]

it just doesn't make sense to me!!! I am just mind blown by the fact Disney is pushing on.

I think we need to give them more credit. Let's see what they do this week.
Also, it could be an invisible response like keeping capacity ultra-low for longer.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Also, it could be an invisible response like keeping capacity ultra-low for longer.

Very true.

 

[Andrew C]

it just doesn't make sense to me!!! I am just mind blown by the fact Disney is pushing on.

It would be silly of them to make a decision based on one data point. You think they just look at raw total cases, and say, “well, let’s close up shop.” There is more information to consider in order for them to make appropriate decisions.

 

[mickeymiss]

There are countless examples of superspreading events from bars, churches, restaurants and other casual-contact, so to say its mostly limited to household contact or that community spread is high risk seems disingenuous.

Large Birthday Party Sparked COVID-19 Outbreak, Pasadena Officials Say

Pasadena health officials are cautioning residents to stay at home and avoid social gatherings on Mother’s Day weekend, after a cluster of COVID-19 cases was traced back to a recent birthday party in the city. “PPHD (Pasadena Public Health Department) recently identified a cluster of COVID-19...

www.nbclosangeles.com

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

www.latimes.com

State confirms coronavirus outbreak tied to Tigerland bars, tells recent visitors to self-quarantine

Since June 10, there have been 4200 new COVID-19 cases in Louisiana, the governor said Thursday

www.wbrz.com

Possible COVID-19 outbreak at Branson bar

BRANSON, Mo. — The Taney County Health Department (TCHD) is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak at Tequila 2 in Branson. TCHD is working with the Stone County Health Department when the bar vol…

www.ozarksfirst.com

And South Korea, which has some of the best contact tracing in the world, was able to trace a new outbreak to a handful of LGBT bars:

Virus outbreak linked to Seoul clubs popular with LGBT community stokes homophobia | CNN

A cluster of coronavirus cases connected to clubs frequented by South Korea's gay community has sparked an outpouring of hate speech towards the country's already-embattled LGBTQ population.

www.cnn.com

With due respect, transient casual contact is different than a birthday party or hours long bar events. People inside for long periods together is not what I'm referring to. Most of this debate circles around whether Disney should open and I think it should because it's not close contact and they are using precautions that none of your examples were taking. I don't think shopping or even dining at a restaurant is considered to be close or casual contact. It's low risk. For example.

We can't ignore data. Household transmission is not inevitable based on this research which bodes well for casual contact situations especially when using precautions.

 

[legwand77]

YIKES

Again like I said yesterday, tomorrow will be even higher, and the next day probably really higher. Tuesday is Florida's peak data day.

 

[Nunu]

I think we need to give them more credit. Let's see what they do this week.
Also, it could be an invisible response like keeping capacity ultra-low for longer.

It would be silly of them to make a decision based on one data point. You think they just look at raw total cases, and say, “well, let’s close up shop.” There is more information to consider in order for them to make appropriate decisions.

And yet, many of us will be sweating bullets tomorrow morning when the parks reservation system opens! Talk about "uncertainties"...

 

[carolina_yankee]

it just doesn't make sense to me!!! I am just mind blown by the fact Disney is pushing on.

I tend to jinx things with my suppositions, so I"m guaranteed to be wrong and Disney will announce closures tomorrow.

I'm hard-nosed on the numbers are real and mean what they mean, but I suspect Disney is looking at hospitalizations and deaths as well as new infections. To me, the positivity and spread should be very concerning, but if deaths and hospitalizations aren't spiking (and COVID Act Now rates FL very good on capacity - https://covidactnow.org/us/fl?s=53768 ), they may want to wait and see how this plays out.

It's a hard spot to be in considering the economic and emotional impact a delay or shutdown would have. They also may be highly confident in their capacity and social distancing/mask procedures.

I haven't seen anything posted about how bookings are going. That would give a clue about how the traveling guest views everything.