Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[legwand77]

Our drive through sites are full - again. The numbers waiting dropped significantly, and then rose again this past week after the local news story. The waits are also long in other areas - but most of the people waiting to be tested are not "sick" but want to know if they are positive.

Which is a very different situation than it was in March & April. The % of positives were lower despite people being symptomatic. Now the % is higher despite people being asymptomatic. Either this virus has a lot more asymptomatic than symptomatic cases than expected, or the testing is getting better. Or asymptomatic people were never being tested during other mass respiratory viral infections?

Hopefully, we will learn a lot about public health and how to respond to an epidemic when this is all over.

Yes, exactly,I am leaning towards the later, there are a lot more asymptomatic spread than thought. In general asymptomatic people are never tested in prior respiratory , who went to get tested for the flu when they were feeling fine previously.

guess that is one good thing about the media panic is more people are going to get tested.

 

[legwand77]

Everything in the news is sensationalized . From the opening of a new Italian restaurant, that has the best food in the world to the man down the street who is the best dad in the world because he did something nice for his children. I look at news for what it is. I double and triple check things that I might have a question or worry about. Truth doesn’t put fear in me, exact opposite does.
We know there’s not one newscast on today that doesn’t go for the headlines. It’s up to us to sift through what everyone is telling us to find the truth. Even if it’s not what we first believed.

Yup, totally agree with you.

right now all the focus , sensationalism is on the case count, during riots protests nothing about the virus, good part is the news cycle will move to the next thing once they burn out the new cases angle.

where are the headlines , US Covid death rate is plummeting , because it has

or US daily death rate from Covid is the lowest ever since March

Even the US deaths today sink below 1000 to lowest number since March , that happened last week in case you missed it

 

[BrianLo]

Not if the asymptotic spread of the virus is much more than already is known, we don’t know either way, but we will find out eventually either way

I do think I understand what you are trying to say, but you are mistaken in how that impacts testing results.

What you are currently hypothesizing is that a person with symptoms of Coronavirus is Less Likely to have the disease than someone who feels well.

What I believe you mean is that out of everyone who catches Coronavirus, 10-50x more of them will feel well and have no notable symptoms than people who feel unwell.

The latter does not lead to the outcome in testing that you think. The first would, but I really don't think you are concluding that Coronavirus symptoms mean someone doesn't have Coronavirus.

 

[networkpro]

Hopefully, we will learn a lot about public health and how to respond to an epidemic when this is all over.

We've known what has worked in the past, its just a matter of heeding those lessons or painfully re-learning them.

 

[GoofGoof]

To clarify, the Disney part was an if , I know they aren’t and can’t test everyone cm , I assumed that would be obvious and common knowledge to everyone on this Disney board that they are not testing everyone. Just making the point that IF Disney did they would have shifted the numbers dramatically just from them alone.

smh

I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought your theory was that the increase in positives and the trend towards younger was because employers like Disney were requiring tests to return to work. I agree that if Disney required CM testing that the number of cases would probably increase. The percent positive would likely drop too.

I actually don‘t think it would be a bad idea for Disney to test everyone one time as an all clear to return to work. If I worked there I’d feel better knowing that with all the active cases still out there at least on day 1 all my co-workers are negative. I get that you can’t test everyone repeatedly but at least start with a base level.

 

[legwand77]

I do think I understand what you are trying to say, but you are mistaken in how that impacts testing results.

What you are currently hypothesizing is that a person with symptoms of Coronavirus is Less Likely to have the disease than someone who feels well.

What I believe you mean is that out of everyone who catches Coronavirus, 10-50x more of them will feel well and have no notable symptoms than people who feel unwell.

The latter does not lead to the outcome in testing that you think. The first would, but I really don't think you are concluding that Coronavirus symptoms mean someone doesn't have Coronavirus.

This is not at all what I am saying.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I post these in the interest of spreading hope that casual community transmission is not seeming to be high risk at all. All potential exposure at Disney is casual even before the pandemic. It would be so much more safe now with precautions. This should be reassuring for guests and CM's for which Disney appears to be doing all they can to keep them protected. There appears to be a more than 50% or more chance of not catching it from someone you live with or sleep with.

Characteristics of Household Transmission of COVID-19

The secondary transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in households is 16.3%. Age of contacts and spousal relationship to the index case are risk factors for trans

academic.oup.com

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

There are countless examples of superspreading events from bars, churches, restaurants and other casual-contact, so to say its mostly limited to household contact or that community spread is high risk seems disingenuous.

Large Birthday Party Sparked COVID-19 Outbreak, Pasadena Officials Say

Pasadena health officials are cautioning residents to stay at home and avoid social gatherings on Mother’s Day weekend, after a cluster of COVID-19 cases was traced back to a recent birthday party in the city. “PPHD (Pasadena Public Health Department) recently identified a cluster of COVID-19...

www.nbclosangeles.com

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

www.latimes.com

State confirms coronavirus outbreak tied to Tigerland bars, tells recent visitors to self-quarantine

Since June 10, there have been 4200 new COVID-19 cases in Louisiana, the governor said Thursday

www.wbrz.com

Possible COVID-19 outbreak at Branson bar

BRANSON, Mo. — The Taney County Health Department (TCHD) is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak at Tequila 2 in Branson. TCHD is working with the Stone County Health Department when the bar vol…

www.ozarksfirst.com

And South Korea, which has some of the best contact tracing in the world, was able to trace a new outbreak to a handful of LGBT bars:

Virus outbreak linked to Seoul clubs popular with LGBT community stokes homophobia | CNN

A cluster of coronavirus cases connected to clubs frequented by South Korea's gay community has sparked an outpouring of hate speech towards the country's already-embattled LGBTQ population.

www.cnn.com

 

[legwand77]

I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought your theory was that the increase in positives and the trend towards younger was because employers like Disney were requiring tests to return to work. I agree that if Disney required CM testing that the number of cases would probably increase. The percent positive would likely drop too.

I actually don‘t think it would be a bad idea for Disney to test everyone one time as an all clear to return to work. If I worked there I’d feel better knowing that with all the active cases still out there at least on day 1 all my co-workers are negative. I get that you can’t test everyone repeatedly but at least start with a base level.

In hindsight should have left off the Disney part, confused some, included the what if to add some Disney context since we all are here for Disney. I think they will have to start testing a lot of CM because some cast members will test positive if they haven't already and via tracing will require other contacts to be tested. Kinda a backdoor approach and not having to make it mandatory.

 

[GoofGoof]

A sarcastic "joke" to drive home the point that more testing = more cases is not a "call." I don't think that FL will be reducing anything considering that all they do is tout how much testing keeps coming on line and how much spare capacity there is at drive through sites for more to get tested.

I hope FL and every state continues on the same path and ignores any pressure from the top. The adults in the room all know that the best way to keep people safe, keep businesses open and continue a return to some level of normalcy is to have plenty of testing and contact tracing when possible. I have no appetite for jokes about that it’s serious business.

 

[BrianLo]

This is not at all what I am saying.

Yes, I know. Coronavirus is much more likely to cause an asymptomatic presentation. There are way more people in Florida who are asymptomatic with coronavirus than people who are symptomatic.

How you think that impacts positive results, doesn't.

 

[GoofGoof]

In hindsight should have left off the Disney part, confused some, included the what if to add some Disney context since we all are here for Disney. I think they will start testing a lot of CM because some cast members will test positive if they haven't already and via tracing will require other contacts to be tested. Kinda a backdoor approach will not making it mandatory.

Right. Contact tracing is going to call for lots testing at the theme parks for sure. It’s a workplace and like any other workers will test positive and they may have been infected elsewhere and brought it with them to work. We did hear some rumblings of that happening at Universal recently, not sure it was confirmed.

On the rise in current numbers, are there a lot of employers other than Disney and Universal requiring workers to be tested before coming back to work?

 

[legwand77]

Yes, I know. Coronavirus is much more likely to cause an asymptomatic presentation. There are way more people in Florida who are asymptomatic with coronavirus than people who are symptomatic.

How you think that impacts positive results, doesn't.

that makes more sense, your opinion and I totally respect it. Time will tell.

 

[Yodascousin]

Our drive through sites are full - again. The numbers waiting dropped significantly, and then rose again this past week after the local news story. The waits are also long in other areas - but most of the people waiting to be tested are not "sick" but want to know if they are positive.

Which is a very different situation than it was in March & April. The % of positives were lower despite people being symptomatic. Now the % is higher despite people being asymptomatic. Either this virus has a lot more asymptomatic than symptomatic cases than expected, or the testing is getting better. Or asymptomatic people were never being tested during other mass respiratory viral infections?

Hopefully, we will learn a lot about public health and how to respond to an epidemic when this is all over.

I believe this is the case in London when antibody tests were sent out to random households the percent that had it was 20% with the majority having no symptoms. Here you still need to show symptoms to get tested and were still seeing on average 1300 cases a day now if anyone could get tested I truly believe it would be between 7-10 thousand daily would be positive

 

[The Mom]

Then perhaps you should go back and reread the article...particularly the part I quoted for you here: "In Florida, 12,673 people have been hospitalized, compared with a cumulative total of 8,553 a month ago, according to the COVID Tracking Project. "

They are referencing the 12K # as the cumulative number. Not shoddy reporting. Shoddy interpretation by you, looking for a "gotcha" to prove your point about the panic-driven media.

I looked at the numbers, and wondered what the split was for a week a month ago compared with today. I sometimes do sports timing so am used to dealing with both cumulative times and splits - and each gives you a different answer depending upon the question. Do you want to know how long it took you to finish the race, do you want to know the winning time, or do you want to know how your time compared to the other competitors? 3 different numbers.

So, for the week of 5/13 - 5/20 the cumulative number of hospitalizations - for the whole state were 7835 & 8934. Which makes the split (the difference in numbers from one week to another) a 1099 increase.

Looking at 6/13 - 6/20 the cumulative hospitalizations were 12155 and 13227. The split is 1072.

So yes, the hospitalizations did increase faster, by 27 more cases. For the whole state. With most of the increases in just a handful of counties, such as the Miami area.

Certainly worth keeping an eye on, but so far hospitals risking being overwhelmed is only a problem in certain areas. Which could easily spread to other areas if we aren't careful.

 

[legwand77]

Good news is Florida had a near 15% drop in new cases today

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Good news is Florida had a near 15% drop in new cases today

Numbers are always lower on the weekends.

 

[legwand77]

I looked at the numbers, and wondered what the split was for a week a month ago compared with today. I sometimes do sports timing so am used to dealing with both cumulative times and splits - and each gives you a different answer depending upon the question. Do you want to know how long it took you to finish the race, do you want to know the winning time, or do you want to know how your time compared to the other competitors? 3 different numbers.

So, for the week of 5/13 - 5/20 the cumulative number of hospitalizations - for the whole state were 7835 & 8934. Which makes the split (the difference in numbers from one week to another) a 1099 increase.

Looking at 6/13 - 6/20 the cumulative hospitalizations were 12155 and 13227. The split is 1072.

So yes, the hospitalizations did increase faster, by 27 more cases. For the whole state. With most of the increases in just a handful of counties, such as the Miami area.

Certainly worth keeping an eye on, but so far hospitals risking being overwhelmed is only a problem in certain areas. Which could easily spread to other areas if we aren't careful.

Great info, with the 27 more cases, how many were actual Covid cases or just normal/regular hospitalizations.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Good news is Florida had a near 15% drop in new cases today

Actually there's quite a discrepancy right now and people are waiting for clarification. The news is reporting that there was a reported 3500 cases, but all of the official dashboards show 4700. So if it is 4700, that's quite an increase.

 

[legwand77]

Numbers are always lower on the weekends.

Yes , I know, it was just an example of how you can look at numbers both ways, I don't put much concern on new case count either way

 

[legwand77]

Actually there's quite a discrepancy right now and people are waiting for clarification. The news is reporting that there was a reported 3500 cases, but all of the official dashboards show 4700. So if it is 4700, that's quite an increase.

Probably a data dump of cases from a few weeks ago, that is usually the situation. Either way they are going to go up a good bit next week IMHO, setting new records.