Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DoleWhipDrea]

Forgive me if this has been talked about here already, but since people are still referring to the numbers that the state of Florida releases, I’d urge you to look at them with a grain of salt...

Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after refusing to manipulate COVID-19 data. Her new portal is a reflection of how contentious coronavirus data has become amid battles over the states' reopening.

www.npr.org

 

[lilypgirl]

Wait...you were in the tub at Vista??
...hmmmm

I like to live life on the edge but there are limits!
Plus steaming hot water on a steaming hot night no thanks. I spent the majority of my day in or around water so I was pretty done with it by the time I got home.

 

[Seanual757]

I would not be surprised if with in the next 1-2 weeks the mayor in Orlando makes masks mandatory if you are outside in public.

I was out and about this past weekend and of the places I visited (Publix, Sams Club, Party City, Costco, and the Mall) I would say 50% or less were wearing masks. We have 6 people left in our office working and of them 2 said they never wear a mask and they believe this is just like the common cold so they have no plans to ever don a mask.

We shall see we have a week before the DVC resorts open on property and 3 weeks until the 1st parks open.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I like to live life on the edge but there are limits!
Plus steaming hot water on a steaming hot night no thanks. I spent the majority of my day in or around water so I was pretty done with it by the time I got home.

Ahhh...the old “typhoon hangover crew”?

..:I have a whole new appreciation for you

 

[Horizons '83]

Forgive me if this has been talked about here already, but since people are still referring to the numbers that the state of Florida releases, I’d urge you to look at them with a grain of salt...

Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after refusing to manipulate COVID-19 data. Her new portal is a reflection of how contentious coronavirus data has become amid battles over the states' reopening.

www.npr.org

I'd urge you not to believe data from a data scientist (one who manipulates data for a living) that was fired and has a chip on her shoulder and something to prove again.

 

[robhedin]

Forgive me if this has been talked about here already, but since people are still referring to the numbers that the state of Florida releases, I’d urge you to look at them with a grain of salt...

Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after refusing to manipulate COVID-19 data. Her new portal is a reflection of how contentious coronavirus data has become amid battles over the states' reopening.

www.npr.org

I mentioned this earlier-- one really big issue with her data is that she's including antibody tests in her totals for the number of cases, which makes it appear that new cases are increasing; however antibody tests indicate that the person had it in the past and recovered.

The state data is aggregated from each of the counties in Florida. If the state is reporting different data than the counties, then it's very likely they'd be called on it. If they're reporting what the counties are giving them, then the only way for the data to be "wrong" is if everyone involved are manipulating things. That's also unlikely. Especially since her data is also from the same sources.

I'm not saying that data couldn't be presented better, or that we're not collecting all of the right information. But I'd also take with a large grain of salt her information as well-- especially since she's trying to monetize it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'd urge you not to believe data from a data scientist (one who manipulates data for a living) that was fired and has a chip on her shoulder and something to prove again.

Besides, her site is a mess and doesn't make the data any more accessible to interpret than the official one. There are already sites that track the states in a much better way.

 

[robhedin]

Besides, her site is a mess and doesn't make the data any more accessible to interpret than the official one. There are already sites that track the states in a much better way.

This is definitely true. The advantage here is it's easier to compare state to state elsewhere.

 

[Horizons '83]

Besides, her site is a mess and doesn't make the data any more accessible to interpret than the official one. There are already sites that track the states in a much better way.

I've got a few sites I use in tandem, one that is particularly useful for testing data which what I am more interested in.

 

[lazyboy97o]

2 said they never wear a mask and they believe this is just like the common cold so they have no plans to ever don a mask.

Even for the common cold people should be wearing masks when ill. We need to end this idea that people are tough because they’re spreading disease.

 

[esskay]

Finally some good news today!

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Patients should be given the cheap drug without delay, after "fantastic" trial results, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Its not a cure but it reduces mortality signficiantly.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Finally some good news today!

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Patients should be given the cheap drug without delay, after "fantastic" trial results, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Its not a cure but it reduces mortality significantly.

We don't really know if it *really* reduces mortality significantly.

This is one trial. It has been announced in a press release that the media is blindly regurgitating. It has not been peer reviewed nor replicated yet.

This is exactly what happened with Hydroxychloroquine in which the doctor using it said, "Hey, this definitely works according to my trial!"

I hope it turns out to be a useful drug. But, the best claim for it is a one-third reduction in deaths of those in critical condition. Its promise is to be a hope for some, but definitely not a cure.

 

[GoofGoof]

I mentioned this earlier-- one really big issue with her data is that she's including antibody tests in her totals for the number of cases, which makes it appear that new cases are increasing; however antibody tests indicate that the person had it in the past and recovered.

The state data is aggregated from each of the counties in Florida. If the state is reporting different data than the counties, then it's very likely they'd be called on it. If they're reporting what the counties are giving them, then the only way for the data to be "wrong" is if everyone involved are manipulating things. That's also unlikely. Especially since her data is also from the same sources.

I'm not saying that data couldn't be presented better, or that we're not collecting all of the right information. But I'd also take with a large grain of salt her information as well-- especially since she's trying to monetize it.

There’s problems with the state data too. On the positivity rate the state counts a person who tests positive only once in their data no matter how many times they are tested after that (makes sense), however they count multiple negative tests from the same person in the numbers which deflates the percent positive. Many workers are being required to submit to repeated testing and repeatedly test negative. Removing that dynamic from the numbers would show a better picture of the real situation on the ground. It’s still unclear to me whether the state is including anti-body testing in their numbers. There was an article posted earlier in the thread that said they were. It’s very confusing and they keep changing what they report and how it is compiled. At this point I don’t feel there’s any way to tell what’s really going on. Just throw the data out the window and roll with the full re-open and hope it goes well.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

There’s problems with the state data too. On the positivity rate the state counts a person who tests positive only once in their data no matter how many times they are tested after that (makes sense), however they count multiple negative tests from the same person in the numbers which deflates the percent positive. Many workers are being required to submit to repeated testing and repeatedly test negative. Removing that dynamic from the numbers would show a better picture of the real situation on the ground. It’s still unclear to me whether the state is including anti-body testing in their numbers. There was an article posted earlier in the thread that said they were. It’s very confusing and they keep changing what they report and how it is compiled. At this point I don’t feel there’s any way to tell what’s really going on. Just throw the data out the window and roll with the full re-open and hope it goes well.

Agree except for the throw everything out the window and full re-open. I think I know your feelings a bit on this and that was just a “ I’m fed up, who cares” statement. I get it. Been there many times over the last few weeks. But there has to be a way, in 2020 that the data can be compiled, in a non political way to show what’s really going on. I don’t have the answer but there has to be a better way then this so whatever side we are on can see what the heck’s going on. To many people can cherry pick whatever numbers that want.

 

[robhedin]

There’s problems with the state data too. On the positivity rate the state counts a person who tests positive only once in their data no matter how many times they are tested after that (makes sense), however they count multiple negative tests from the same person in the numbers which deflates the percent positive. Many workers are being required to submit to repeated testing and repeatedly test negative. Removing that dynamic from the numbers would show a better picture of the real situation on the ground. It’s still unclear to me whether the state is including anti-body testing in their numbers. There was an article posted earlier in the thread that said they were. It’s very confusing and they keep changing what they report and how it is compiled. At this point I don’t feel there’s any way to tell what’s really going on. Just throw the data out the window and roll with the full re-open and hope it goes well.

The state lists antibody testing separately.

I wasn't trying to imply that the data we're collecting is the best. But bear in mind that the data that she's using is the same data the state uses. I'm not sure how she can separate the multiple negative tests without knowing who had the tests which would be a HIPPA violation (it's possible, I just don't know what the data looks like).

Also, I wonder if keeping the negative tests isn't a valid methodology. Not saying it is, but presumably the people that are being retested are doing so because they are the ones most likely to be exposed (i.e. first responders, nurses, hospital staff, etc). If that's the case, continued negative tests seems like a good things. I also wonder how many people are actually being retested as a percent of the total. If it's a relatively small amount, it should have minimal impact. In other words, out of the 1.4M tests how many of those are duplicates?

 

[Kevin_W]

We don't really know if it *really* reduces mortality significantly.

This is one trial. It has been announced in a press release that the media is blindly regurgitating. It has not been peer reviewed nor replicated yet.

This is exactly what happened with Hydroxychloroquine in which the doctor using it said, "Hey, this definitely works according to my trial!"

I hope it turns out to be a useful drug. But, the best claim for it is a one-third reduction in deaths of those in critical condition. Its promise is to be a hope for some, but definitely not a cure.

Yes, I think all the news frenzy over this is a bit much today. As you say, the "best" case is a 1/3 chance of improvement for those in a ventilator. I mean for a few bucks, go ahead and use it. But if I told you I had a drug that would give you a 1.3 chance to live I don't think you would be calling that "fantastic".

 

[GoofGoof]

The state lists antibody testing separately.

I wasn't trying to imply that the data we're collecting is the best. But bear in mind that the data that she's using is the same data the state uses. I'm not sure how she can separate the multiple negative tests without knowing who had the tests which would be a HIPPA violation (it's possible, I just don't know what the data looks like).

Also, I wonder if keeping the negative tests isn't a valid methodology. Not saying it is, but presumably the people that are being retested are doing so because they are the ones most likely to be exposed (i.e. first responders, nurses, hospital staff, etc). If that's the case, continued negative tests seems like a good things. I also wonder how many people are actually being retested as a percent of the total. If it's a relatively small amount, it should have minimal impact. In other words, out of the 1.4M tests how many of those are duplicates?

Except according to this article (posted earlier) the government is including the anti-body testing in their new case numbers too:

Florida reports nearly 1,700 new COVID-19 cases, 47 additional deaths

Florida reported a surge of nearly 1,700 new coronavirus cases Thursday as well as 47 additional deaths.

www.wftv.com

On the positivity rate it depends on what you use it for. If you are attempting to say that the positivity rate is a reflection of the overall situation on the ground then you don’t want to include repeated tests because it skews the results and it’s no longer a random sample. The state has the data on who was tested and they have the ability to strip out repeat tests without any HIPPA issues as long as they are compiling the data and presenting it aggregate and not reporting on individual people’s status. My assumption is burried somewhere in the reports sent out by the counties is the number of repeat vs new tests and that’s how the alternate dashboard backs it out. It’s all how you slice the raw data and present it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Finally some good news today!

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Patients should be given the cheap drug without delay, after "fantastic" trial results, experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Its not a cure but it reduces mortality signficiantly.

Dexamethasone and similar drugs are commonly used in severe respiratory infections, so I'm not sure if this should really count for much of a breakthrough. It just seems like validation that an existing treatment for other severe respiratory infections will also incur a survival benefit in COVID-19. I'm pretty certain they've been already using these medications since the pandemic began (can't say for certain, since I work on the out-patient side these days). Now, at least, they have some research to support existing practices.

There will probably be a monoclonal antibody released within the next 3 months for COVID. This will also likely significantly reduce mortality, but it won't do much on its own to slow the spread of the disease. We'll need a vaccine for that.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Except according to this article (posted earlier) the government is including the anti-body testing in their new case numbers too:

Florida reports nearly 1,700 new COVID-19 cases, 47 additional deaths

Florida reported a surge of nearly 1,700 new coronavirus cases Thursday as well as 47 additional deaths.

www.wftv.com

That only says Orange County is including there antibody test results.

 

[GoofGoof]

That only says Orange County is including there antibody test results.

Yes, and the state dashboard is compiling the numbers from the counties same as the alternate dashboard. My point in all of this is we really have no idea what’s in those numbers.