Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[disneygeek90]

The setting dictated the compliance - if you want the go to UO, you have to wear a mask.

Right, and that’ll be the setting at the Disney parks as well. I know CM’s have a reputation of not speaking out, but they’ll have to make an exception now.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Disney and Universal have always had rules about what you can and can't wear into their parks, either during normal operating hours or for special events*. I don't see the masks as any different. It's private property and their call. I'll wait for them to decide if it doesn't work or not.

*please do not reply to this post with your examples of x or y about that time you saw the lady wearing/not wearing this or that.

 

[jaklgreen]

Well, the WHO is now saying that, and I quote, "It's very rare" for asymptomatic people to spread the virus. With them now seeing this in their studies, I imagine that mask wearing will go down. The whole point of wearing the masks is to "protect others" as so many like to keep pointing out. I think that in light of this, places should go to voluntary mask wearing. If people who are living with an asymptomatic person are not even getting sick, then the chances catching it from someone in the store with you, is pretty dang low.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

Does anyone realize that with more testing come more positive results? It’s a given.

Also, take away nursing care facilities (which are still on lockdown) and prisons from the numbers, combined with the increase in testing and, well, that is why the alarms aren’t being sounded just yet. Although the protest results will be interesting to see.


Orange County sees slight uptick in COVID-19 cases

Orange County sees slight uptick in COVID-19 cases

Orange County is seeing a slight uptick in COVID-19 cases, according to health officials.

www.wftv.com

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Bad news for Texas. COVID-19 hospitalizations are at their highest level so far and the positivity rate jumped from 4.27% to 7.55%.

Texas reports a record number of hospitalized coronavirus patients after state reopened early

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Incomudro]

There are two possible interpretations here, as far as I can tell. Both lead to the same conclusion.

Possibility 1: The science indicates that asymptomatic transmission is very rare and we never should have shut down.

Possibility 2: The scientists can't agree on what the science indicates... so we never should have shut down.
[/QUOTE

Possibility 3: Politics. The WHO came to the conclusion that their previous recommendations didn't fit in with the current protests.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Biology is a little bit more tricky because of variation and mutation...but the concepts hold.

It’s why surgeons never try to do a heart valve replacement by entering through the rectum...the proven way works fine.

Goodnight, ladies and gentlemen. No more calls.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Bad news for Texas. COVID-19 hospitalizations are at their highest level so far and the positivity rate jumped from 4.27% to 7.55%.

Texas reports a record number of hospitalized coronavirus patients after state reopened early

There are currently 1,935 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the state, topping the previous hospitalization record of 1,888 patients on May 5.

www.cnbc.com

Damn...that goes against my high expectations of them then...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Does anyone realize that with more testing come more positive results? It’s a given.

Did someone with a medical degree and/or common sense advocate that?

 

[TrojanUSC]

Just want to be clear there is a lot of confusion with this WHO report. The larges #s of transmissions seem to be coming from pre-symptomatic people vs. people who will never go on to have symptoms, who they term asymptomatic.

WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread Of Coronavirus 'Very Rare,' But Experts Raise Questions

"When we actually go back and say, 'How many of them were truly asymptomatic?' we find out that many have really mild disease, very mild disease," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove said.

www.forbes.com

Dr. Ashish K. Jha, director at the Harvard Global Health Institute, tweeted out the distinction and noted that the agency "should be clearer in communication, also noting that some models "suggest 40-60% of spread is from people when they didn't have symptoms."

 

[Chi84]

Just want to be clear there is a lot of confusion with this WHO report. The larges #s of transmissions seem to be coming from pre-symptomatic people vs. people who will never go on to have symptoms, who they term asymptomatic.

WHO Says Asymptomatic Spread Of Coronavirus 'Very Rare,' But Experts Raise Questions

"When we actually go back and say, 'How many of them were truly asymptomatic?' we find out that many have really mild disease, very mild disease," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove said.

www.forbes.com

So someone not affiliated with the WHO sent out a tweet clarifying that organization's statement in a way that disagreed with what the WHO actually said. I guess we should be clearer in communication.

 

[TrojanUSC]

So someone not affiliated with the WHO sent out a tweet clarifying that organization's statement in a way that disagreed with what the WHO actually said. I guess we should be clearer in communication.

Point is that there's lots of evidence of pre-symptomatic spread. Study after study shows this. Asymptomatic, which is often confused with pre-symptomatic by the media, is what is in question.

 

[DisneyCane]

So all those super-spreader incidents where a lot of people got the virus from people who had no symptoms...?

Or the rapid, exponential spread in high density areas even after people with symptoms were self-isolating...?

Regarding the "super-spreader" incidents, it is very possible (I'd even say very probable) that somebody had some kind of symptoms like a mild cough or a few sneezes and it wasn't memorable enough for people to recall weeks later when questioned.

On the spread, do you really believe that everybody with a mild cough or "cold" was actually self-isolating from the people within their household? Even with the dramatically increased testing, do you think that everybody with any mild symptom goes out and gets tested? From personal observation, not even half of people follow one way aisles in Publix. I don't believe that anywhere near all people with any kind of symptom actually completely isolates.

A few things that, in my opinion, back up this new information from the WHO.

1) The Governor of Montana recently stated, after a few days of several new cases per day, that there was not a single active case in the state where they didn't know exactly how the patient got infected. It would be impossible to get to the source of every case if there was significant asymptomatic spread.

2) South Korea got the outbreak under control with testing, contact tracing and temperature screenings. They didn't completely eradicate the virus but the actual "outbreak" lasted less than 3 weeks. Controlling the outbreak with these methods would also be impossible with large scale asymptomatic spread.

3) Logic. We know that the virus was in the USA many weeks before the spread was recognized. If there was large scale asymptomatic spread with a virus that is this contagious then it would be expected that a much higher percentage of the population would have been infected by the time the outbreak was recognized. Additionally, I don't believe that any prior respiratory virus has been spread by asymptomatic carriers. I could be mistaken and I haven't had time to try and research it.

Due to how easily this virus spreads, I can definitely believe that people with very mild cases could spread it to several people in close contact with a couple of uncovered sneezes or coughs.

With respect to WDW operations, I believe that the temperature screening will do far more good in preventing spread at the parks than anything else they are doing.

I think it's important to keep in mind that pre-symptomatic isn't the same as asymptomatic. Therefore people can still spread the disease who aren't physically demonstrating symptoms yet.

First, nobody actually knows this. This is from a 2009 paper on the nih website about influenza. I only bring it up because influenza is a respiratory infection as well and there isn't enough evidence or studies to draw a conclusion on COVID-19.

We performed a systematic review of published studies describing the relationship between viral shedding and disease transmission. Based on the available literature, we found that there is scant, if any, evidence that asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals play an important role in influenza transmission.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2646474/

 

[RFM57]

https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf

This is the guidance that the gov't has me following for preparing our workplace for full reentry of personnel. Masks are not recommended unless you have constant, prolonged <6ft separation from co-workers, otherwise they are not recommended for workers (food/customer service is a different category than normal staff/office jobs). Like I said earlier, me, my wife and kids tested positive for the antibody, so I'm not discounting the virus. It was a hell of a cold for me since I'm more prone to bronchial issues (had bronchitis for a month afterward), and my sons rolling fever was a bit scary.

Nevertheless, I know that there is a mass hysteria (because that's how we do it nowadays) and folks want to feel safe. People that feel they are more susceptible to it (over 65, obese, underlying heath issues) should take caution. Those who are healthy, not in the higher age ranges, or feel they'll be 'okay', should probably just live their lives and not worry about something that is going to be around until the end of time.

Thanks for that reference. As I usually find with OSHA communications, it is somewhat confusing at best, and misleading at worst, in short, clear as mud. You have to understand that OSHA is approaching the issue from a different standpoint, primarily of protecting the worker who is likely to be in a hazardous situation AND is under the assumption that co-workers are not sick, or if they are reporting symptoms, you are sending them home. Thus it concentrates on using PPE, which face masks are not (and it says so) to protect form infected or potentially infected "people" in the workplace -- not the "workers," as it does nto consider those terms interchangeable. As OSHA often does, it refers to other documents to fill in gaps. In this case, it directs the reader to follow the guidance of the CDC, which it links to. There, the CDC covers basics of Workplace safety in this document: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/guidance-business-response.html that says the following:

• Encourage workers to wear a cloth face covering at work if the hazard assessment has determined that they do not require PPE, such as a respirator or medical facemask for protection.
  • CDC recommends wearing a cloth face covering as a measure to contain the wearer’s respiratory droplets and help protect their co-workers and members of the general public.
  • Cloth face coverings are not considered PPE. They may prevent workers, including those who don’t know they have the virus, from spreading it to others but may not protect the wearers from exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.
• Remind employees and customers that CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain, especially in areas of significant community-based transmission. Wearing a cloth face covering, however, does not replace the need to practice social distancing.
• See the OSHA COVID-19external icon webpage for more information on how to protect workers from potential COVID-19 exposures and guidance for employerspdf iconexternal icon, including steps to take for jobs according to exposure risk.

So, bottom line, OSHA does NOT say that workers should NOT wear cloth masks. OSHA does go into detail about the use of PPE, for reasons that differ from why we wear cloth masks. OSHA does direct that CDC guidelines should be followed and links to an area that includes info on Workplace safety. In that section, the CDC clearly says that a cloth face covering (mask) should be worn in the workplace unless PPE is needed instead.

 

[Kamikaze]

Does anyone realize that with more testing come more positive results? It’s a given.

Not as a percentage.

 

[MisterPenguin]

1) The Governor of Montana recently stated, after a few days of several new cases per day, that there was not a single active case in the state where they didn't know exactly how the patient got infected. It would be impossible to get to the source of every case if there was significant asymptomatic spread.

Montana is a low density state where presymptomatic spread has a lot less chance to happen than in large metropolises.

2) South Korea got the outbreak under control with testing, contact tracing and temperature screenings. They didn't completely eradicate the virus but the actual "outbreak" lasted less than 3 weeks. Controlling the outbreak with these methods would also be impossible with large scale asymptomatic spread.

South Korea was onboard with everyone wearing masks right from the beginning slowing pre-symptomatic spread. They were also aggressive with contact tracing.

3) Logic. We know that the virus was in the USA many weeks before the spread was recognized. If there was large scale asymptomatic spread with a virus that is this contagious then it would be expected that a much higher percentage of the population would have been infected by the time the outbreak was recognized. Additionally, I don't believe that any prior respiratory virus has been spread by asymptomatic carriers. I could be mistaken and I haven't had time to try and research it.

And we did have more deaths than expected. There is the death gap between all the extra deaths that exceed the normal averages and only a part of those have been officially attributed to COVID.

And if only symptomatic cases can be spreaders then why is there still a dozen states where the number of infections are still growing even though everyone with symptoms has been self-quarantining for two months or being screened out (e.g., with temperature checks)?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Here's a great graph. The line is the percent positive as a percentage of total tests.

Daily Testing Trends in Florida - Johns Hopkins

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Florida

coronavirus.jhu.edu

As of the last few days, Florida has leveled out at about 4.2 percent positive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Montana?

Unbelievable.

Anyway...26 states are seeing “significant rise” in the number of cases reported. And since it’s still highly dangerous and not at all a “made up” thing...maybe it’s time to put the covid discussion to bed and wait it out?

The CDC is now saying states are under reporting probable cases to deflate the likely numbers. Florida, California and Texas being specifically nabbed.

Is the world going to end? No. But was this bungled and continues to be? Absolutely. And it really isn’t surprising at all.

And the US economy is officially in recession...the people are hurting. Somebody please let Wall Street know?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here's a great graph. The line is the percent positive as a percentage of total tests.

Daily Testing Trends in Florida - Johns Hopkins

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Florida

coronavirus.jhu.edu

As of the last few days, Florida has leveled out at about 4.2 percent positive.

That’s not exactly encouraging when the numbers are climbing pretty consistently.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Lets see if the protests and riots will cause a spike in positive cases, although I am guessing the rioters will not get themselves tested.

At the time the police arrested both the rioters and the protestors, that would have been a good to time to have them tested before they released them.