SorcererMC
Well-Known Member
There is no such thing as certainty in epidemiologic risk assesment with a novel virus.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
Right, so we should never shut down LITERALLY THE WHOLE WORLD.
TeriofTerror
Well-Known Member
I think it's important to keep in mind that pre-symptomatic isn't the same as asymptomatic. Therefore people can still spread the disease who aren't physically demonstrating symptoms yet.
Joel
Well-Known Member
Unless you're an Internet forum epidemiologist, in which case there is no such thing as uncertainty.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Right, and the Scripps study cited above in Times differentiated between pre and asymptomatic. They asserted "at minimum, 30%, and more likely 40% to 45%" asymptomatic spread.
So the true # is somewhere between "very rare" and 45%. That is pretty a difficult inconsistency to rationalize.
It is not the number of cases that is important but the number of deaths.
Rider
Well-Known Member
In the US currently 5.7% of reported cases are fatal*.
More cases lead to more spread leads to more cases leads to more death.
COVID-19 is not under control. It's even less under control when the parks closed. We are frogs boiling in the pot.
*https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
The number of cases is like 10% of the information that leaders in FL need in order to make appropriate decisions. Hospitalizations, positivity rate, Number of tests daily, number of deaths, whether the new cases are coming from specific areas, etc. This all comes into play, and more.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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And that makes sense, but maybe I am misreading the article but this seems to suggest the WHO is including pre-symptomatic as well?
"To be sure, asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread of the virus appears to still be happening, Van Kerkhove said but remains rare. That finding has important implications for how to screen for the virus and limit its spread. "
fngoofy
Well-Known Member
FL is currently at an average of 34 deaths per day, by end of Aug they are projected to be at 60.
Covid Projections
Chi84
Premium Member
This is so true. The CDC and WHO have said from the outset that the virus is primarily transmitted by prolonged contact with an infected individual. That hasn't changed from day one. From what I remember, the initial lockdowns weren't based on the fear of asymptomatic spread - they were based on the fact that many people who contracted the virus had only mild symptoms that felt like a cold or a minor case of flu. The thinking was that those people could well decide to go to work or school, where they would be in prolonged contact with other individuals (in an office or school setting this could be many people), who would then contract the virus and take it home to their family members, where again there is prolonged contact. The same virus that caused 80% to have mild symptoms turned out to have a devastating effect on those with weakened immune systems. It would be nice to think that telling a person with a mild cold not to go to work or school would be effective, but from personal experience I know this is not the case. Although we know now how widespread and serious this virus has turned out to be, people did not have this sense of urgency when the lockdowns were first instituted. Many believed, for some reason, that the virus was no worse than having a cold and that it would disappear with the warmer weather. The decision-makers had to make a hard choice and they made it.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Nailed it.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
I thought the heat was going to kill it? Sorry, had to do it.
monykalyn
Well-Known Member
conversely “I can’t see the virus so it must be everywhere lying in wait to infect meeeee!”get out of here with your "logic" and "facts" and "experts" and quotes. I can't see the virus, so it must not be a threat!
Even with current restrictions? My timeshare costs me <$500/year in MF (was gifted to us) currently at an MVC resort in Orlando for two weeks (one week on an accommodation certificate or free extra week - just an exchange fee $200). For $700 for 2 weeks in a 2 bed/2 bath with 2 pools, large hot tubs (that aren’t the usual circle ones so easy to space out); no masks needed when stepping out my door, free mini golf, pool, shuffleboard, ping pong, basketball courts and activities resumed this week. How much would that cost at Disney? Without guaranteed admission and a parking fee unless DVC why is Disney so great right now? I think only 2-3 buildings are even with occupancy right now, so lots of space to spread out. The villa as sparkling clean too and I mean CLEAN. No dust even in usual contender areas (like I’ve found in most Disney resorts). Cooking most meals in the condo- did my WFH today on the screened lanai overlooking a lake.
There’s more evidence that truly asymptomatic aren’t spreaders. From the earliest China studies of households not 100% of even members of same household ever tested positive. And when the media discovered some can test positive or “shed virus particles” without symptoms the media as one voice failed to disclose that the scientists had no clue if these people were capable of causing infections. Those individuals who dared point that out were called names or shouted down. If pre-asymptomatic truly are so infectious why didn’t 100% of cruise ship passengers ALL test positive?
key words “high density population” - close prolonged contact with infectious person. All about viral load along with personal susceptibility, and we are still discovering what makes one person more susceptible than another.
Wow. Did not realize that was still in effect. I had assumed that it would have expired after 30 or 60 or 90 days. Thanks.
durangojim
Well-Known Member
Let’s not forget that testing is much more widespread. I’d be shocked if we didn’t see an increase in identified cases.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
their positivity rate is 4%. The WHO recommends a positivity rate of 5% or lower for reopening. The last time the state was seeing this number of daily positive cases, they were doing about 10k tests daily Now they are at about 30k daily.
so..it seems a mixed bag for them right now.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I like this graph as the line is percentage positive of total tests
coronavirus.jhu.edu
The precentage positive for the last 10 days:
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
So for the last 10 days in Florida the percent postitive changed 0.9 percent.
Daily Testing Trends in Florida - Johns Hopkins
See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Florida
coronavirus.jhu.edu
The precentage positive for the last 10 days:
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
So for the last 10 days in Florida the percent postitive changed 0.9 percent.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Don't know if this has been shared regarding Aulani:
"For Disney Vacation Club Members and Guests who are interested in modifying their existing travel dates or making a new reservation for a future vacation, reservations are currently available for travel dates July 1, 2020 and later. As always, Members and Guests are able to modify these bookings if Aulani Resort opens before or after that time."
Currently the state of Hawaii has a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals until at least June 30th.
"Gov. Ige added, “And I just really want to assure all of you that we are definitely focused on the next steps – making plans and having discussions about out-of-state travel and transpacific travel, which we will be making an announcement about next week.”
This comment was posted June 1 on the Hawaiian Tourism Authority's website.
"For Disney Vacation Club Members and Guests who are interested in modifying their existing travel dates or making a new reservation for a future vacation, reservations are currently available for travel dates July 1, 2020 and later. As always, Members and Guests are able to modify these bookings if Aulani Resort opens before or after that time."
Currently the state of Hawaii has a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals until at least June 30th.
"Gov. Ige added, “And I just really want to assure all of you that we are definitely focused on the next steps – making plans and having discussions about out-of-state travel and transpacific travel, which we will be making an announcement about next week.”
This comment was posted June 1 on the Hawaiian Tourism Authority's website.
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