News Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

imsosarah

Active Member
No it’s not.
Math is hard with big numbers so here it goes...

There are ~330,000,000 people in the US.
10% would be 33,000,000 *Rates seen in Italy
5% would be 16,500,000
1% would be 3,300,000 *Global rate claim 1-5%
.5% would be 1,650,000
.4% would be 1,320,000 *CDC rate claim, excluding deaths not tested/counted

So 1.3 million people would die if we let .4% of the population die. It sounds, small, but .. math.

Take also into account that older people and people with underlying conditions (overweight, obese, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc) have the highest chance of death as well, and lets be honest - there are a lot of both of those groups that exist in US.

The age factor -

48% death rate for 75+
22% death rate for 45-77
3.9% death rate for 18-44

That doesn't include the ones with ongoing life long impact to their bodies because instead of death they had strokes, heart attacks, months on a ventilator, etc.

So again, please tell me how my number was wrong?
 

wdisney9000

Well-Known Member
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To compare the symptoms of COVID-19 to colds and headaches is wrong on so many levels.
I was pointing out that symptoms can vary from person to person regardless of the cause. Please show me where I compared covid to colds and headaches directly.
 

Jwink

Well-Known Member
So my issue is HOW can they maintain these distances and protocols for months. Will CMs report other CMs for not wiping down surfaces/handrails/sinks/etc? Like... there has to be some...what do you call it? What's the word...infant mom brain...accountability. I don't see this all being sustainable long term. People get comfortable.
 

rle4lunch

Well-Known Member
That is not what vaccines do and Tamiflu is not a vaccine.
I know. Can we talk about the flu vaccine, which is only on average only 30%effective? Yet in the military i have to get that thing every year. Why? Because it's a great way to move inventory when you have a guaranteed customer of 5 million buying it every year.

This whole thing is much bigger than we all realize. And not in a cure type of way.
 

imsosarah

Active Member
So my issue is HOW can they maintain these distances and protocols for months. Will CMs report other CMs for not wiping down surfaces/handrails/sinks/etc? Like... there has to be some...what do you call it? What's the word...infant mom brain...accountability. I don't see this all being sustainable long term. People get comfortable.
We live in Wisconsin and were impacted early by this in our family. The mask wearing, etc has become second nature but as the weather got hot/warm over the weekend, it absolutely made it harder to remember to keep them on outside of the stores, etc
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
So my issue is HOW can they maintain these distances and protocols for months. Will CMs report other CMs for not wiping down surfaces/handrails/sinks/etc? Like... there has to be some...what do you call it? What's the word...infant mom brain...accountability. I don't see this all being sustainable long term. People get comfortable.
MY guess is not long. I was in a Pollo Tropical today with marginal cleaning in the dining, the restroom was filthy (maybe everyone washing their hands (vain hope)) and some with masks but a couple protecting their chins only. Lots of play and graba** among the staff, as you say people will not do what is out of their comfort zone for long.

eta: I cannot go in a Pollo Tropical without thinking expecting to see Gus Fring
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The elderly *are part of* the general population.

You keep wanting to only look at one thing: young people. And you do so to trivialize the death rate.

How do you think those 100,000 human beings died? Because they interacted with the general population.

A hundred thousand people in the U.S. have died and you say, "Hey, the children are fine!"
If you keep the virus out of the nursing homes, the mortality rate drops significantly for the older population as well. With respect to WDW, if you are over 65 (maybe even 60) you shouldn't go right now. If you are younger but can't stay away from close contact with people over 60 when you return from your trip then you shouldn't go either.

The vast majority of the spread is happening with prolonged, close contact, not momentary encounters with strangers at the grocery store.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I was referencing @rlemade:

We have a flu vaccine and Tamiflu for treatment, don't see us doing away with a flu vaccine just because there's a medicine to treat it. It's illogical.
Tamiflu doesn't work very well. I've been told this independently by doctors and a pharmaceutical company executive that has been in the industry for 40 years. That said, if it did work well, we still wouldn't do away with the flu shot.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
If you keep the virus out of the nursing homes, the mortality rate drops significantly for the older population as well. With respect to WDW, if you are over 65 (maybe even 60) you shouldn't go right now. If you are younger but can't stay away from close contact with people over 60 when you return from your trip then you shouldn't go either.

The vast majority of the spread is happening with prolonged, close contact, not momentary encounters with strangers at the grocery store.
The basic problem is that you can't prevent transmission to elderly or at risk populations. This is a consequence of the fact that the transmission rate and incubation period are both very long, and we can not isolate people for the months-years that it will take to develop a vaccine and therapeutics. What you can do is to decrease the rate of new infections, that is, the spread among everyone, to keep the total number infected over that time low. This means there are fewer opportunities for those in high risk populations to be exposed.

Yes, if you're in an at risk population, you should not expose yourself to higher risk activities. That isn't sufficient as a public health measure, however, without widespread reduction in the overall rate of transmission. The ways we do that are through continuing social distancing, testing and contact tracing.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Math is hard with big numbers so here it goes...

There are ~330,000,000 people in the US.
10% would be 33,000,000 *Rates seen in Italy
5% would be 16,500,000
1% would be 3,300,000 *Global rate claim 1-5%
.5% would be 1,650,000
.4% would be 1,320,000 *CDC rate claim, excluding deaths not tested/counted

So 1.3 million people would die if we let .4% of the population die. It sounds, small, but .. math.

Take also into account that older people and people with underlying conditions (overweight, obese, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc) have the highest chance of death as well, and lets be honest - there are a lot of both of those groups that exist in US.

The age factor -

48% death rate for 75+
22% death rate for 45-77
3.9% death rate for 18-44

That doesn't include the ones with ongoing life long impact to their bodies because instead of death they had strokes, heart attacks, months on a ventilator, etc.

So again, please tell me how my number was wrong?
It was wrong.....Because it’s impossible to reach a 100% infection rate. 330m are not going to get Covid19. Math isn’t hard, but when you start with bad numbers you get bad results.

edit to add, 6 people “liked” that post. Goodness gracious.
 

Hawg G

Well-Known Member
And they are indeed opening in mid-July!

So Disney did as many of us thought.

But you... you have such a hate on for Disney that your presence on a fan board for WDW is a mystery. And it leads you to say such ridiculous and very very wrong things. Do you never tire of your hysterical shenanigans?
Everybody was saying Disney would stay closed until very late in the year, or more. The ultra maskers thought that was very smart. Epcot would be next year.

Universal forced their hand.

My how the times have changed. I used to love going to WDW. Now it's a crazy stressful situation months before we even arrive.
 

Hawg G

Well-Known Member
I have been working on some home projects while in my quarantine status and I discovered today that I needed a few supplies from Lowe's. I made a trip down to my local Lowe's wearing my mask. I found my needed supplies and then stood in line to pay. All of the cash register lanes had social distancing squares spaced about 6 feet apart and I joined the line on my square three people back from the cash register.

As I was waiting in line, another customer also joined the line behind me. However, rather than occupying the square six feet back, he got right behind me with less than a foot of distance between us. I asked him to move back to the social distancing square, but he said to me, "Naw, you've got plenty of room". I then stepped out of line and looked for another register to pay for my items.

As I walked away, I noticed a rather big and burly Lowe's associate (wearing a mask) come swiftly within not more than six feet of me and he asked me to stop. He quickly moved past me and confronted the man who had been behind me in line. The Lowe's associate took the merchandise from the man and demanded he leave the store immediately. The man began to say something ("This is America and you've got no right...") but the Lowe's associate interrupted him and stated loudly, "You've got 30 seconds to get out that door before I throw you out."

The associate then invited me to return to the line as he then escorted the social distancing violator outside.

After I made my purchases and went outside to my car, I noticed the same man being interviewed by a county deputy in front of the store.
Cool story bro!
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Without interventions, the fraction of the population that would be infected prior to the end of widespread transmission is 70-90%
I should just let this go, but man it’s hard to let people like you spread misinformation.

That article is from April 10th. 6 weeks ago. That’s the first problem. Problem #2 is they don’t even address Covid-19. It’s just, in general terms 70-90%

“Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.”

I mean, come on, be better.
 

BaconPancakes

Well-Known Member
Everybody was saying Disney would stay closed until very late in the year, or more. The ultra maskers thought that was very smart. Epcot would be next year.

Universal forced their hand.

My how the times have changed. I used to love going to WDW. Now it's a crazy stressful situation months before we even arrive.
You sound cranky and upset. Maybe going outside to take a walk might help. You won’t even need to wear a mask.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
I should just let this go, but man it’s hard to let people like you spread misinformation.

That article is from April 10th. 6 weeks ago. That’s the first problem. Problem #2 is they don’t even address Covid-19. It’s just, in general terms 70-90%

“Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.”

I mean, come on, be better.
I don't think you understand what that article says. We're not talking about modeling based on the mitigated transmission that results from social distancing and other precautions - that is, the date the article was published isn't relevant in this context. The reason for this is that when we're assessing how valuable a public health measure is, we need to understand what would happen if we didn't take those measures. So what we're really talking about are basic consequences of exponential growth. The way herd immunity works is a function of what is called R0, a measure of how infectious a disease is. The 70% number is a mathematical consequence of the measured values of R0 from a variety of methods. Slightly more detailed considerations that also account for the long incubation time yield the 90% estimate. I included the link rather than simply stating the result and explaining where it comes from since I figured you would like to know a bit more about the background as well.

What this means in the context your original comment was made in is that even a low absolute mortality rate results in very high absolute numbers of deaths without taking serious measures to reduce the transmission rate.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I should just let this go, but man it’s hard to let people like you spread misinformation.

That article is from April 10th. 6 weeks ago. That’s the first problem. Problem #2 is they don’t even address Covid-19. It’s just, in general terms 70-90%

“Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.”

I mean, come on, be better.
Then what is the herd immunity threshold for SARS-CoV-2?
 
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