LukeS7
Well-Known Member
And people play the lottery with infinitely worse odds. You're over 2 million times more likely to die from this than you're likely to win the Powerball, and that's using South Korea's death rate.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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DisneyGigi
Well-Known Member
It is 68 percent alcohol so it should be effective per the cdc guidelines.
As Disney seeks to reassure investors, one analyst firm predicts U.S. theme parks will need to close amid coronavirus pandemic
As Bob Iger took the stage at Disney’s annual shareholder meeting Wednesday he immediately sought to reassure investors over the coronavirus on the same day the World Health Organization decl…
www.orlandosentinel.com
Those are the known cases. Lets assume 70 million people in the US get Covid 19. 80% get better with no treatment and 20% need medical attention. That means 14 million need medical help. Now, it if the death rate is 7% of them. it would mean just under 1 million dead. That is horrible but it's only a fraction of 1% of out total population. This is horrible but even if the death rate of those needing medical attention were 20%, 2.8 million, it would still be less that 1% of our population, with most of them being elderly with medical problems. This is scary but we will go on and as FDR said, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Today isvthe day American's and the rest of the world should listen to FDR and follow his advice.
Now, these numbers are high. I used them only to put the worst case scenario in light. I know I am going to get killed for putting these numbers up but we all need to be positive and plan for the worst but expect it will be much lower than this.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Excuse me, but I have a mother, step-father, and husband who are all considered in the high-risk zone for severe symptoms from this disease, so we are all actively taking extra precautions and expect others to do the same.
You must have far more faith in the American public's ability to control themselves and behave rationally than I do. This is a country that riots when a sports team wins/loses an important game and tramples people and gets into fistfights when there's a bridal gown sale.
What you are suggesting is a PANIC reaction...which is a bad choice. We need to react calmly and rationally to this in order to come out winners at the end. My family is being extra careful, and if need be, my mom and her husband will be able to avoid going out in public as I will happily deliver anything they need to them. If my husband needs to go stay with them to be safe because we have 2 boys who attend 2 different schools, he will.
No, I am suggesting people be responsible for themselves and not expect a government that is failing at this to save any of us. What you are suggesting is ignoring and pretending it will just magically go away or that the supplies will always be there when we have already been told they may not.
Being prepared and following the advice of the CDC and WHO to have 2-3 weeks of food on hand is not panic buying - it is what we have been told to do...weeks ago. Especially if you are high risk people in your family, you are already being told to limit exposure to anyone.
Your thought on this is 100% valid and what we should have done...a month ago. We have missed the window, we are not testing people, we have no idea who to even quarantine or not and because most people don't have severe symptoms they become a risk to those that do - especially when those are assuming others are following basic guidelines. Which they are not.
Right now, people coming from italy can walk off a plane in the us. People coming from france, germany, UK, etc and showing symptoms after returning home can't even get a test. We have no clue where to start with localized protection measures....
The numbers aren't high - we are told to expect 60-80% infection rates... we don't have beds for all that
Good to know! Some of theirs was only 50% in the past - thank you for the update!!
LukeS7
Well-Known Member
To put it into perspective in your worst case scenario, that's literally a 100% increase in yearly deaths for the US and would mean Coronavirus would be the leading cause of death in our country, being equal to all other causes of death combined. So yes, 2.8 million is a huge number and would be enough combined with the other causes of death to surpass the birth rate and cause a population decline.
Also, there's approximately 95,000 ICU beds out of 540,000 total hospital beds in the US. Assuming no ICU beds are needed for other purposes, and an even distribution of those 14 million cases requiring hospitalization in your example, the system would be overwhelmed if the average length of time those people need treatment is more than 2.5 days. And that's without factoring in any other things that would require ICU care and with an even distribution of cases.
Let’s look at the numbers - Wuhan has a population of 11 million. The entire country of China has/had 80,000 cases. And It was uncontained in Wuhan for weeks. Color me skeptical that the infection rate will be 60%-80%
JohnD
Well-Known Member
I think a two week lockdown would have the reverse effect. I can hear it now: "Oh, my God. You've just implemented martial law!" There would be a run for supplies and everything else before the lockdown took effect. No, it would create panic, not tamp it down.
Surferboy567
Well-Known Member
...I got accepted for the DCP. I don’t really know what I should do. With all this talk of chronavirus, I don’t know what state everything will be come late May.
Please, people, read the CDC site before you comment.
We don't know how deadly it is yet. If you quoted a number... you're wrong.
There is indeed a danger of being overwhelmed. That danger is of ICUs being overwhelmed with people who need oxygen and mechanical respiration and there's only so many oxygen and ventilation equipment in existence.
But that's only if we let CV spread unchecked. Awareness of CV and good hygiene practices will slow it down. Also, we can keep ICUs from being overwhelmed and the death rate down by having those at high risk (frail, compromised immune system, other pre-existing illnesses) from being affected if they self-quarantine and we all practice good hygiene around them. If they get removed from the general population, then the general population can all get CV and it will be a lot less deadly than the flu.
Now that it is "officially" a pandemic, well, then it's likely we'll all get CV eventually, like we all get the cold.
www.cdc.gov
We don't know how deadly it is yet. If you quoted a number... you're wrong.
There is indeed a danger of being overwhelmed. That danger is of ICUs being overwhelmed with people who need oxygen and mechanical respiration and there's only so many oxygen and ventilation equipment in existence.
But that's only if we let CV spread unchecked. Awareness of CV and good hygiene practices will slow it down. Also, we can keep ICUs from being overwhelmed and the death rate down by having those at high risk (frail, compromised immune system, other pre-existing illnesses) from being affected if they self-quarantine and we all practice good hygiene around them. If they get removed from the general population, then the general population can all get CV and it will be a lot less deadly than the flu.
Now that it is "officially" a pandemic, well, then it's likely we'll all get CV eventually, like we all get the cold.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Summary
CDC is responding to the novel (new) coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. See information on source, spread, risk assessment and the latest U.S. updates.
Rider
Well-Known Member
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
I must've mis-read one of your previous comments then because it sounded like you were actively supporting trying to force everyone in the country to stay home for two weeks...which would cause far more problems than it would solve. Not only do I think all the crazy, irrational people out there would hoard supplies and/or riot and loot, it would create a false sense of security because once that two week lock-down is lifted and people begin traveling again...all bets would be off and we'd be worse off than we are now. Hell, we already know of one person who purposely and knowingly violated a self-quarantine order...now imagine that on a much larger scale. The best we can hope for is to slow the spread as much as possible and to be extra cautious around those we know to be vulnerable to severe symptoms.
I'm not suggesting it will "magically go away" at all. The fact is that people are going to die from this. If people who don't need emergency treatment swamp hospitals, MORE people will die (and unfortunately, I think there's a large segment of the population that will over-react and do exactly that). It's very sad, but unavoidable. Since we have no way of killing this virus and stopping it in its tracks, slowing the spread will space out the number of cases that need hospitalization so that the health care system isn't overloaded, and that is the best we can do.
You have to take into account that most of the deaths are the elderly. A high percentage of them would have died in the near future anyway. Therefore, these are not deaths that would dramatically change our overall death rate. 19 of the deaths in Washington State were in a Nursing Home and were in poor health. I am sorry for them and their families but we need to face the fact that all Covid19 did was end their lives slightly sooner than it would have anyway. If you look at if from a financial point of view, it saves on Nursing Home costs, Social Security and Medicare. I hate to say those things but we already take too much from younger workers to give to the elderly. BTW, I am in my 60's so I will soon be subsidized by the younger workers.
PeoplemoverTTA
Well-Known Member
I'm not in the south, but my family is plant based and we think somewhat similarly when it comes to being prepared. Our cupboards are always stocked with beans and grains, and our freezer is always loaded up with frozen fruits and veggies (plus, with a toddler, we always have plenty of plant based milk, which usually has an expiration date around 6 weeks to 2 months out). I also use a mail order service (Tushy, lol) for toilet paper, so we always have plenty.
I'm not saying I'm boarding up my windows, but it's kind of nice to know that if/when it's recommended we hunker down, we'll be fine as far as food and supplies go.
MaximumEd
Well-Known Member
Same here, except for the sweet TP service. We also live debt free, so we could pull the plug and just stay home for a month or more and be fine. I’m afraid most wont have that option.
Wild Mister Toad
Member
Everyone should do their own risk analysis. Unfortunately, most people have no clue how to do that or understand statistics.
That said the chicken-littleling going on here is ludicrous. 99% of people that actually get this will survive. The fear-mongering and panic will do nothing help anyone.
I’m at DW now with little concern
That said the chicken-littleling going on here is ludicrous. 99% of people that actually get this will survive. The fear-mongering and panic will do nothing help anyone.
I’m at DW now with little concern
These have popped up at Epcot. Didnt notice them a couple days ago. Mobile hand washing stations. Each had an accompanying sandwich board with references to hand washing and germ control.
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