Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

That’s why states look at the positivity rate. The number of tests vary each day. Orange County will give both numbers when they do an update at their briefings. I find that very helpful to see if the percentage of positive tests is going up. So far it’s been decreasing. But we need to watch this carefully in the coming weeks with more people out of their homes.

The only problem with percent positive it’s not a random sample. If I was randomly selecting 1,000 people every day from the population and testing them then that would be a stronger indicator of what percent of the population is infected and if that percent was dropping it would be a really good sign. Similar to the random testing done in NY for anti-bodies. As testing ramps up you would naturally expect a decrease in percent positive since with limited testing only the ill were allowed to be tested in a lot of cases. Now with widespread testing we should be seeing a much lower positive percentage as family members and people who had casual contact with someone can now be tested too as well as potentially the general public without as many limits. With full contact tracing ramped up we should see an even lower positive percentage as many more people get tested with no actual symptoms.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Not unexpected, but hours for the parks has just been removed through May 30th.

Officially pushing back my "I will run naked through my neighborhood singing/performing Gangsta's Paradise or whatever" to July 10th. If WDW opens by then (theme park or theme parks) my neighborhood is spared and the bet is lost.*

*For those playing at home, I have won April 1st, April 15th, May 1st, and as of now, June 1st.

 

[KrazyKat]

Disney Springs opening May 20

 

[IanDLBZF]

https://www.disneysprings.com/reopening/

 

[Parker in NYC]

Disney Springs opening May 20

Good luck to those "appropriate face coverings" for cast members and guests. Hopefully, no one will protest.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Do we actually have anywhere that shows us number of people tested per day? The assumption is that the increase in new cases is due to a ramp up in testing, but I’ve also been hearing that for a week or 2 now. At some point the number of people tested has to level off and then new cases becomes more relevant again.

This site has historical data for each state, including daily testing.

The COVID Tracking Project

The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories.

covidtracking.com

 

[BaconPancakes]

Good luck to those "appropriate face coverings" for cast members and guests. Hopefully, no one will protest.

And once again everyone said Disney would never require them in the USA...

 

[Polynesia]

The only problem with percent positive it’s not a random sample. If I was randomly selecting 1,000 people every day from the population and testing them then that would be a stronger indicator of what percent of the population is infected and if that percent was dropping it would be a really good sign. Similar to the random testing done in NY for anti-bodies. As testing ramps up you would naturally expect a decrease in percent positive since with limited testing only the ill were allowed to be tested in a lot of cases. Now with widespread testing we should be seeing a much lower positive percentage as family members and people who had casual contact with someone can now be tested too as well as potentially the general public without as many limits. With full contact tracing ramped up we should see an even lower positive percentage as many more people get tested with no actual symptoms.

I understand where you’re coming from. I can’t speak for the entire state but I do know Orange County is targeting hot zip codes. They’re going in more extensively to the areas that there are more positive numbers. They have mobile sites. So it’s almost a bit of tracing for the specific area. But it’s not true contact tracing.

 

[Parker in NYC]

And once again everyone said Disney would never require them in the USA...

Truly. To be fair, I think people said Disney wouldn't require them in the parks themselves. But if they also thought Disney Springs, well, that's just silly.

They will be required in the parks. Sweaty, nasty, humid. But still, masks. Of course, whether they open at a time when masks would be needed, that's another story.

 

[wdwmagic]

Disney Springs will begin phased reopening on May 20 - the first step in Walt Disney World's recovery from COVID-19

Disney Springs will begin phased reopening on May 20 - the first step in Walt Disney World's recovery from COVID-19

As expected, the first part of Walt Disney World to reopen will be Disney Springs.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[Disstevefan1]

Breaking news - Disney World announces phased reopening of Disney Springs starting May 20th

 

[wdwmagic]

Disney's operations update page adds details about Walt Disney World reopening restrictions and adjustments

Disney's operations update page adds details about Walt Disney World reopening restrictions and adjustments

With the news of Disney Springs reopening, Disney is advising guests on other changes to experiences once more areas reopen.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[Patcheslee]

Truly. To be fair, I think people said Disney wouldn't require them in the parks themselves. But if they also thought Disney Springs, well, that's just silly.

They will be required in the parks. Sweaty, nasty, humid. But still, masks.

They also have to consider these are third party stores, so to require them or not they risk losing business for the small amount of profit they bring.

 

[Parker in NYC]

They also have to consider these are third party stores, so to require them or not they risk losing business for the small amount of profit they bring.

I sure hope people who want this country up and running choose to wear a mask, thus helping these third-party businesses stay in business.

 

[GoofGoof]

And once again everyone said Disney would never require them in the USA...

Disney Springs is a shopping mall with restaurants. Most people are pretty much accustomed to wearing masks in stores these days. Outside of a few unfortunate incidents that have been highly public (and geographically pretty far from Orlando) most people comply without issue. I hope the protest people and anyone else who doesn’t want to follow the rules just stay away. If there is repeated trouble or any kind of violence they could easily shut it right back down again.

I have said from the beginning that I don’t think Disney will open their theme parks in the US if a mask is mandatory for guests. I stick by that statement. Wearing a mask for an hour or two while shopping mostly indoors is a whole lot different than multiple hours in the summer Orlando heat and humidity. I don’t think requiring a mask at Disney Springs during the early phase of FL re-opening means they will definitely implement that rule when the theme parks do re-open.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Disney Springs is a shopping mall with restaurants. Most people are pretty much accustomed to wearing masks in stores these days. Outside of a few unfortunate incidents that have been highly public (and geographically pretty far from Orlando) most people comply without issue. I hope the protest people and anyone else who doesn’t want to follow the rules just stay away. If there is repeated trouble or any kind of violence they could easily shut it right back down again.

I have said from the beginning that I don’t think Disney will open their theme parks in the US if a mask is mandatory for guests. I stick by that statement. Wearing a mask for an hour or two while shopping mostly indoors is a whole lot different than multiple hours in the summer Orlando heat and humidity. I don’t think requiring a mask at Disney Springs during the early phase of FL re-opening means they will definitely implement that rule when the theme parks do re-open.

I agree that wearing a mask at Disney (unless being paid, that is) would be ridiculous. I certainly wouldn't go. But that doesn't mean they'll open without them either (at this point).

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree that wearing a mask at Disney (unless being paid, that is) would be ridiculous. I certainly wouldn't go. But that doesn't mean they'll open without them either (at this point).

If for some reason they decide to require masks when the parks open they will then do very little to enforce the rule. If they do decide to enforce the rule there will be resistance, in a worse case scenario maybe violence and a whole lot of bad PR. This issue is way too polarized now for Disney to logically want to get in the middle of.

 

[Parker in NYC]

If for some reason they decide to require masks when the parks open they will then do very little to enforce the rule. If they do decide to enforce the rule there will be resistance, in a worse case scenario maybe violence and a whole lot of bad PR. This issue is way too polarized now for Disney to logically want to get in the middle of.

Oh, there'll be resistance, all right and possibly violence. And there will be little to enforce the rule. That goes without saying.

 

[DisneyCane]

Do we actually have anywhere that shows us number of people tested per day? The assumption is that the increase in new cases is due to a ramp up in testing, but I’ve also been hearing that for a week or 2 now. At some point the number of people tested has to level off and then new cases becomes more relevant again.

In Florida, they publish the last two weeks in the daily report on this page: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

The only problem with percent positive it’s not a random sample. If I was randomly selecting 1,000 people every day from the population and testing them then that would be a stronger indicator of what percent of the population is infected and if that percent was dropping it would be a really good sign. Similar to the random testing done in NY for anti-bodies. As testing ramps up you would naturally expect a decrease in percent positive since with limited testing only the ill were allowed to be tested in a lot of cases. Now with widespread testing we should be seeing a much lower positive percentage as family members and people who had casual contact with someone can now be tested too as well as potentially the general public without as many limits. With full contact tracing ramped up we should see an even lower positive percentage as many more people get tested with no actual symptoms.

In the Florida daily report linked above, they break out the percent positive of new cases. The overall rate is somewhat informative but includes retests of prior positives. The new case percentage helps determine the prevalence because it does include the people (which I don't really understand) that get a test for the heck of it. It also includes the most likely to test positive (symptomatic patients and their contacts). Dr. Birx seems to put a lot of importance on the positive rate when looking at the disease prevalence.

While it would be interesting to do random sample testing, in most places the disease prevalence of active cases is so low that I doubt you can get any statistically meaningful result unless there are really a huge number of asymptomatic cases. Using numbers from Montana (a state that actually shows the data), yesterday only 10% of their total cases were still active cases. If you apply a similar percentage to Florida (which doesn't publish that number), there would be less than 4000 active cases. That would be 0.02% of the population. Even if there are really 10 times the cases including asymptomatic cases, it's still only 0.2%. You would need a very large sample size to be able to conclude that low of a percentage being infected.

At least with the antibody testing, there will be a much larger percentage that were previously infected so you can draw conclusions from a reasonable sample size.

 

[GoofGoof]

Oh, there'll be resistance, all right and possibly violence. And there will be little to enforce the rule. That goes without saying.

You left out heat stroke and people passing out from the ones who do comply.