Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Andrew C]

In Denton, TX, we are doing graduation at Texas Motor Speedway (Nascar). Families will be in cars in the infield.

after party at the buc-ee’s next door!!

 

[DisneyCane]

DeBaddata from DeSantis

Where is that chart generated from? This is from the state dashboard and has no day peaking anywhere near 80. It only shows the last 30 days.

 

[gmajew]

Any update on mid June Reservations yet? Don't have time to look through the pages I missed

 

[DCBaker]

Any update on mid June Reservations yet? Don't have time to look through the pages I missed

Nothing yet. The only thing known for sure is that they have cancelled reservations up to May 23rd as of now.

 

[DCBaker]

Where is that chart generated from? This is from the state dashboard and has no day peaking anywhere near 80. It only shows the last 30 days.

View attachment 467635

Most likely they are the numbers they report out (shown of press releases) on days they are confirmed, which are then back-dated to the date it when the death actually occurred on the dashboard.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I understand. I just thought the pp was picking and choosing the part they wanted to believe.

I'm with you. I was pushing back against the pp's assertion that what you said wasn't an accurate reflection of the article.

 

[Kevin_W]

The HGIS numbers through 4/28 look different than both. As DCbaker said, probably different accounting methods. And the most recent days usually change (HGIS shows 0 deaths on 4/29 and 126 of 4/30).

 

[jmp85]

First chart resembles China's reports. Sudden drops are always suspicious, but then they did say they'd stop reporting numbers.
The way back into the heart and earn the confidence of travelers is not to cover up the numbers, but to show that you have a system that works.

That's a pretty big accusation to make without any proof the data he presented was incorrect or had been altered in an effort to "cover up" the truth.

 

[GoofGoof]

In some good news:

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

This is the same team that injected the monkeys recently and all of them were resistant to the virus for 28 days. They apparently got approval to combine phase I and phase II of their clinic trial so they are testing thousands of people for both safety and effectiveness at once. They should know by mid-June if the vaccine is effective. Vaccine manufacturers are already ramping up production in the hope that if the trial goes well and the vaccine is approved they will be ready to vaccinate much sooner.

 

[senor_jorge]

after party at the buc-ee’s next door!!

My wife had to go to Beaumont for work recently and held out for Buc-ees on her way home to use a bathroom.

 

[willtravel]

Delta will be requiring masks for passengers beginning Monday

Delta expands safety commitment by requiring all customers to wear face coverings across travel

In keeping with best practice guidelines from the CDC, starting May 4 Delta will require all customers to wear a face mask or appropriate face covering when traveling.

news.delta.com

I truly understand why but this just takes the fun out of flying for us. One of the things we enjoyed was going to the airport a little earlier for a drink and if between stops having a drink and a meal. Looks like has ended at least for now.

 

[jmp85]

In some good news:

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

This is the same team that injected the monkeys recently and all of them were resistant to the virus for 28 days. They apparently got approval to combine phase I and phase II of their clinic trial so they are testing thousands of people for both safety and effectiveness at once. They should know by mid-June if the vaccine is effective. Vaccine manufacturers are already ramping up production in the hope that if the trial goes well and the vaccine is approved they will be ready to vaccinate much sooner.

From the article: "Ethics rules, as a general principle, forbid seeking to infect human test participants with a serious disease. That means the only way to prove that a vaccine works is to inoculate people in a place where the virus is spreading naturally around them."

I'll probably regret typing this, but there's a part of me that wishes they could speed this up by deliberately exposing participants who consented. I understand why they don't, but if the vaccine turns out to be effective, you'd have the ability to save thousands of lives.

 

[GoofGoof]

From the article: "Ethics rules, as a general principle, forbid seeking to infect human test participants with a serious disease. That means the only way to prove that a vaccine works is to inoculate people in a place where the virus is spreading naturally around them."

I'll probably regret typing this, but there's a part of me that wishes they could speed this up by deliberately exposing participants who consented. I understand why they don't, but if the vaccine turns out to be effective, you'd have the ability to save thousands of lives.

One of the articles I read actually had a quote from one of the researchers who said they were probably the only people in the country who were hoping the social distancing in the U.K. didn’t work too well and snuff out the virus. They need the outbreak to last a little longer to finish their trial. In order to draw a conclusion on effectiveness they need the placebo group to still get infected. They were hoping for something like 20 infected in the placebo group vs 2 or less in the vaccine group to call it a success, but if not enough infections happen in the placebo group it’s inconclusive.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s the chart DeSantis used to justify reopening the state it was part of his PowerPoint presentation the other day. “Look at the orange line! It shows we’re going from 15 to 0 by the end of April!”

I mean where did the second chart come from?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The discrepancy in stats from one source to another, and even from the same source are so frustrating and confusing. Take the IMHE model: on April 29 it said that Georgia had passed the peak of deaths 23 days earlier. Yet, the same model just two weeks prior stated the peak would be in May. And, before that the model had said the state passed the peak the first week of April.

It is REALLY frustrating. Add to that that you often need to look at more than one website to get ALL the info and it becomes infuriating.

 

[DisneyCane]

From the article: "Ethics rules, as a general principle, forbid seeking to infect human test participants with a serious disease. That means the only way to prove that a vaccine works is to inoculate people in a place where the virus is spreading naturally around them."

I'll probably regret typing this, but there's a part of me that wishes they could speed this up by deliberately exposing participants who consented. I understand why they don't, but if the vaccine turns out to be effective, you'd have the ability to save thousands of lives.

A part of me feels the same but when I ask myself if I would let them try to infect me, I'm not sure I can answer yes even knowing the risk of a serious outcome is very low even if the vaccine doesn't work.

 

[DisneyCane]

The HGIS numbers through 4/28 look different than both. As DCbaker said, probably different accounting methods. And the most recent days usually change (HGIS shows 0 deaths on 4/29 and 126 of 4/30).

View attachment 467638

Shouldn't we be using the official data from the State of Florida? They're the ones that should know since they are collecting the data from medical examiners. I think sites like worldometers.info (and others) just take the new count each day and record daily deaths as the difference from the previous total. I'm pretty sure that the data from the Florida Department of Health, counts the death on the day the person died, not the day it is reported and counted in the total.

 

[Kevin_W]

In some good news:

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

This is the same team that injected the monkeys recently and all of them were resistant to the virus for 28 days. They apparently got approval to combine phase I and phase II of their clinic trial so they are testing thousands of people for both safety and effectiveness at once. They should know by mid-June if the vaccine is effective. Vaccine manufacturers are already ramping up production in the hope that if the trial goes well and the vaccine is approved they will be ready to vaccinate much sooner.

Yes, that's the same data, but reported on with a bit more background. thanks for the link

 

[jmp85]

A part of me feels the same but when I ask myself if I would let them try to infect me, I'm not sure I can answer yes even knowing the risk of a serious outcome is very low even if the vaccine doesn't work.

Yeah, same boat here for sure, however I think they'd find plenty of volunteers. I think the people taking the unproven vaccines are already being brave by taking an unproven vaccine (although I think in the case of the Oxford one, it is using the building blocks of a proven vaccine).

 

[jmp85]

One of the articles I read actually had a quote from one of the researchers who said they were probably the only people in the country who were hoping the social distancing in the U.K. didn’t work too well and snuff out the virus. They need the outbreak to last a little longer to finish their trial. In order to draw a conclusion on effectiveness they need the placebo group to still get infected. They were hoping for something like 20 infected in the placebo group vs 2 or less in the vaccine group to call it a success, but if not enough infections happen in the placebo group it’s inconclusive.

Yeah, it seems a little paradoxical to say "hey we can't ethically expose you to the coronavirus, but on the other hand, we really hope all of you get exposed."