Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Yes, but I don’t feel reports like these are suitable for public consumption. The government should always be prepared for the worst case scenario but the average citizen doesn’t need to. I‘m not presently prepared for nuclear attack.
I agree, but I also think the public needs to get a better grasp of what a pandemic is and how long they can last. I've seen many, many people on social media behaving as if everything will be fine and dandy within a month or two.
 

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
I agree, but I also think the public needs to get a better grasp of what a pandemic is and how long they can last. I've seen many, many people on social media behaving as if everything will be fine and dandy within a month or two.
It’s a balancing act. People need to be aware but if you suggest things will be like they are now for 2 further years, people go crazy.
 

jrhwdw

Well-Known Member
Emails going out cancelling Villains After Hours events in July (July 6th the latest known so far).

View attachment 467661


Editing to add another link to the original post from the person who got the e-mail

So.. if VAH is Cancelled in July does that mean WDW is still closed then? Or is it 2 different things?
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
I removed the graphics for my reply, but wanted to share that I see the same types of discrepancies for Georgia. For example, The official Georgia Department of Health web site notes that 70 new cases were reported on April 30, while the Atlanta newspaper (AJC) reports 618 new cases on that date, citing the GA DHP as the source. How can that be?!?

The DHP notes that regardless of when the new case is reported, they adjust the daily numbers to reflect the date the new case was confirmed, not when it was reported. Thus, there is a 14 day window where the daily numbers are expected to change. My theory is that the AJC is listing the total number of cases reported on a specific date, even if those cases actually were confirmed as new cases across multiple days.

Is that sloppy reporting by the AJC, a bias in reporting to make the numbers look bigger, or just misleading headlines and statistics without proper explanation (which might also be considered sloppy reporting)? Considering the headline was "Georgia verifies 1k new COVID-19 cases in 24 hours", I tend to believe the latter is true. Yes, the total number of cases reported increased from just over 26k on Thursday to 27,134 on Friday. But... that does not mean that there were 1000 new cases found in 24 hours. The report date does NOT equal the confirmed date.

The point of my reply is that the confirmed date should be the date used for ALL trends to see if the number of new daily cases is increasing or decreasing. And, the "final" number of new cases in a day cannot be considered accurate (or complete) until at least 14 days have passed, based on reporting requirements. That true trend should be the one that Florida uses to make decisions on when to move through the phases, (or when to move back, if needed), and also what Disney should consider in deciding when to open and with what restrictions.

Here's one example of how to explain the numbers for Florida being different (for example the graph via the NYT vs the graph on FDH dashboard)

This is the press release sent out from FDOH on April 28th (the numbers match with the NYT), however in the release, you'll note it doesn't say anything about how those deaths are reported (confirmed vs date of actual death).

EWt24t5WAAMwt5B.jpeg
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
They are doing that after a month or two. I’ve always been a firm believer that information is good for everyone, not just our leaders. The more info us little guys can get, as long as it’s good info, maybe we can make changes. Call me a dreamer. 🙂
You have more faith in people than I do! 😂
I definitely think a careful balance must be struck because there are people at both extremes who could react poorly...but the longer this drags on with no end date in sight, people are going to get angrier the longer the truth is held back.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
I removed the graphics for my reply, but wanted to share that I see the same types of discrepancies for Georgia. For example, The official Georgia Department of Health web site notes that 70 new cases were reported on April 30, while the Atlanta newspaper (AJC) reports 618 new cases on that date, citing the GA DHP as the source. How can that be?!?

It's not just you - Ohio has the same differences between what's tabulated on coronovairus.ohio.gov and what is reported by the Columbus Dispatch after the governor's daily briefings For example, on 4/29 the Dispatch reported 534 new infections, but the Ohio website showed 424. They reported 727 on Thursday vs. the web site's 125.

Everything in the last 2 weeks on the website is marked "preliminary", so the disconnect must be in that part. Like everywhere else, we have news media pushing the conflicting stories of "we're all dying, the Governor is opening things up to fast" and "things are under control, the Governor is acting too slowly".

My take, overall, is that things look pretty good. We've talked a lot in this thread that the point of the lockdown has moved from "don't overwhelm the hospitals" to "keep everyone completely safe". If we go by the first proposed standard, our daily admissions of 50-60 people to the hospital in a state with 14,000 beds looks pretty good.

1588366253254.png
 

jmp85

Well-Known Member
Here's one example of how to explain the numbers for Florida being different (for example the graph via the NYT vs the graph on FDH dashboard)

This is the press release sent out from FDOH on April 28th (the numbers match with the NYT), however in the release, you'll note it doesn't say anything about how those deaths are reported (confirmed vs date of actual death).

View attachment 467673

Yeah, my belief is most of these variances are related to timing differences. I'm not going to spend the time creating an Excel spreadsheet in an attempt to prove it, but it appears to be the most logical explanation.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
So.. if VAH is Cancelled in July does that mean WDW is still closed then? Or is it 2 different things?
Great question. I don’t think it’s a smoking gun that the parks won’t be open by then. The only thing we know for sure is VAH is cancelled. It could be for cost cutting, could be they don’t want to leave the park open until 1am during all of this, could be they don’t plan to have very many characters in the parks (at least not meet and greets) so it’s kinda hard to do an event like this, or it could mean the park won’t be open yet. Lots of possibilities. On one hand they haven’t cancelled room reservations yet for June and July. On the other hand TripAdvisor still has the note on all of the Disney hotels: Update from hotel: This property is temporarily closed until 07/30/2020.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
In some good news:

This is the same team that injected the monkeys recently and all of them were resistant to the virus for 28 days. They apparently got approval to combine phase I and phase II of their clinic trial so they are testing thousands of people for both safety and effectiveness at once. They should know by mid-June if the vaccine is effective. Vaccine manufacturers are already ramping up production in the hope that if the trial goes well and the vaccine is approved they will be ready to vaccinate much sooner.
Any group that successfully discovers the corona vaccine should get free tickets for life at Disney, and many other accolades that go with the discovery. The Nobel Prize I think is approx $1 million dollars in prize money but with donations added to it the group deserves much more.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
On one hand they haven’t cancelled room reservations yet for June and July. On the other hand TripAdvisor still has the note on all of the Disney hotels: Update from hotel: This property is temporarily closed until 07/30/2020.

It might be that 3rd party sellers like Expedia don't have access to Disney's room inventory before the end of July so Disney has some room to shift the reopening date if they need to.
 
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