Not surprisingly, completely agree. However, two days at a "must-see" off property attraction are the biggest threat to this market. It renders Magic Express fairly useless--need a car anyway, easier at the airport--and lessens the appeal of the dining plan. If guests have to leave the WDW bubble anyway, it won't take long for some of them to realize you can get a nice hotel for a fraction of the cost--even something heavily themed, like Nick Hotel. Two days away from DHS and AK is nothing relatively, the real fear is 5 or 6 nights away from Pop Century or Caribbean Beach.
Right, what Disney fears the most is losing hotel stays, not gate clicks.
After 4 days, Disney essentially gives away theme park admission ($10/day). That just kills Disney’s Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS). The theme parks are expensive to operate. More theme park visitors equates to more expense.
With the twisted thinking that sometimes happens within executive hallways, guests spending one or two days at Universal actually might help. It's certainly nothing to worry about.
Hotel stays are another matter.
Above a certain occupancy rate, additional occupied rooms represent almost pure profit. At WDW’s rack rates, the numbers are huge.
When WWOHP opened in 2010, what concerned Disney was a 400K drop in occupied room nights, which translated into $100M in annual lost revenue, nearly all of that representing lost profit. That decline continued in 2011. That's a huge chunk of WDW's net income.
Disney’s biggest fear is that with Universal targeting the value-conscious market beginning with Cabana Bay, WDW’s occupancy rates will erode.
Today, many vacationers use WDW hotels as bases of operation for their Universal visits. With Universal continuing to expand in its theme parks and opening a hotel for value-conscious vacationers, will guests flip? Will guests start to use Universal hotels as bases of operation for their WDW visits?
During WDW stays in 2010 and 2011, I commented to my DW that I had never seen so many Universal bags at WDW hotels.
In Disney’s nightmare scenario, these bags disappear as guests shift their hotels from WDW to Universal.
Most days, WDW has over 5000 empty rooms. Even with the addition of the 1800-room Cabana Bay, WDW has more empty rooms than Universal has total rooms.
MyMagic+ is corporate's play to fill those rooms. However, with Uni moving forward on both the theme park and hotel fronts, MyMagic+ no longer looks like the "can't miss" strategy it once was considered to be.