I see your point.
I think Disney thinks these are its constraints:
- Frontierland is no longer a viable concept. Americans haven't watched family-friendly Westerns, as a genre, in TV or movies in probably sixty years.
- New rides have to be attached to a commercially viable IP franchise to reduce risk
- New Lightning Lane revenue is a key consideration for future development
We can argue all day about whether those
should be the constraints. But for the sake of argument, can we accept those as more or less the things Disney thinks are true?
Here are the top-grossing Disney IP from that list above, and their approximate revenue. I'm not sure how up to date it is for any particular franchise:
- Mickey Mouse ($61.2B)
- Winnie the Pooh ($48.5B)
- Star Wars ($46.7B)
- Disney Princesses ($45.4B)
- The Marvel MCU ($32.9B)
- Spider-Man ($25.5B)
- Cars ($21.5B)
- The Lion King ($15.2B)
- Toy Story ($14.8B)
- Avengers ($14.3B)
- Frozen ($13.9B)
- Pirates of the Caribbean ($7.9B)
- Muppets/Sesame Street ($7.7B)
- X-Men ($7B)
- Ice Age ($6.4B)
- Avatar ($5.78B)
- Beauty and the Beast ($3.52B)
- Iron Man ($2.9B)
- Guardians of the Galaxy ($2.71B)
- Indiana Jones ($2.6B)
Let's cross out on the list the things Disney can't build in Florida (e.g., Marvel), and
highlight in red the ones that already have substantial presence somewhere else in WDW.
The
ones in green are the ones left to choose from, using the criteria above:
- Mickey Mouse ($61.2B) - Hollywood Studios
- Winnie the Pooh ($48.5B) - Magic Kingdom
- Star Wars ($46.7B) - Hollywood Studios
- Disney Princesses ($45.4B) - Magic Kingdom
The Marvel MCU ($32.9B)
Spider-Man ($25.5B)
- Cars ($21.5B)
- The Lion King ($15.2B) - Animal Kingdom
- Toy Story ($14.8B) - Hollywood Studios
Avengers ($14.3B)
- Frozen ($13.9B) - EPCOT, Hollywood Studios
- Pirates of the Caribbean ($7.9B) - Magic Kingdom
- Muppets/Sesame Street ($7.7B) - Hollywood Studios
- X-Men ($7B)
- Ice Age ($6.4B)
- Avatar ($5.78B) - Animal Kingdom
- Beauty and the Beast ($3.52B) - Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios
Iron Man ($2.9B)
- Guardians of the Galaxy ($2.71B) - EPCOT
- Indiana Jones ($2.6B) - Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom
That helps understand what's happening here, right?