Captain Marvel 2: "The Marvels" -- Nov 10, 2023 Theatrical Release

[Disney Irish]

if someone at Disney and Marvel aren’t freaked out about the prospect of yet another (or in Marvel’s case, first) film that’s set to lose over $100M at the box office, then they’re being quite foolish

I doubt they are freaking out at this point, its only the first few days of presales. Also "set to lose over $100M" is just a tad bit premature in prediction, as its still a month out before release.

 

[TP2000]

We heard you the last 20 times you mentioned that

I'm sure you did, but a couple other folks seem to be missing it. Or pretending that math doesn't exist.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm sure you did, but a couple other folks seem to be missing it. Or pretending that math doesn't exist.

Nobody is missing anything, some of us just choose to wait to see how things turn out before claiming a particular film is going to lose money.

Many things can happen between now and the time the movie leaves the theaters at the end of the year.

 

[TP2000]

Here's some good news in an article I just read; reasons why The Marvels may do better than predicted opening weekend.

• It opens Veteran's Day Weekend, and this year the holiday is observed on that Friday. The day the movie opens.
• The opening of Dune 2 was pushed back into 2024 due to the strike, so The Marvels will have Veteran's Day Weekend almost all to itself now. The only other major movie opening that weekend is a small Christmas religious musical called Journey To Bethlehem from Sony.
• Brie Larson was the leading lady in the last Captain Marvel movie, and it did over $1 Billion at the global box office in 2019.

 

[LSLS]

I actually really want to see this, but it does not feel like this comes out in a few weeks. Just no marketing/press around it, and nothing really buzzing.

 

[Disney Irish]

I actually really want to see this, but it does not feel like this comes out in a few weeks. Just no marketing/press around it, and nothing really buzzing.

I saw a lot of marketing for it this weekend watching various shows on TV, even during NFL games.

Also started seeing prereel ads for it before the trailers last month, and then the trailer itself starting about 2 weeks ago in theaters.

 

[TP2000]

I actually really want to see this, but it does not feel like this comes out in a few weeks. Just no marketing/press around it, and nothing really buzzing.

I've been getting ads for it on YouTube all weekend long, telling me to buy my pre-opening tickets NOW.

 

[Prince-1]

I actually really want to see this, but it does not feel like this comes out in a few weeks. Just no marketing/press around it, and nothing really buzzing.

Not sure if you have been watching any tv or going to the movies because I have seen trailers for The Marvels being played all the time. Also, they are doing tons of marketing on Youtube as well.

 

[BrianLo]

The strike is a shame because we all know Iman Vellani would be working overtime on promoting this. She would have been really amusing on the media circuit, Tom Holland energy.

 

[TP2000]

The strike is a shame because we all know Iman Vellani would be working overtime on promoting this. She would have been really amusing on the media circuit, Tom Holland energy.

But on what shows would Miss Velani be hyping this movie on? The Tonight Show? Jimmy Kimmel? Stephen Colbert?

Almost no one in the USA is watching those shows anymore. Johnny Carson has been dead for decades. Letterman and Leno have been off the air for years and years now. Who still watches those shows? In a nation of 338 Million people?

Nielsen Ratings Week Ending October 14th, 2023

Fox News Gutfeld! = 2,062,000 or 0.6% of the US population
CBS The Late Show with Stephen Colbert = 1,984,000 or 0.6% of the US population
ABC Jimmy Kimmel Live! = 1,652,000 or 0.5% of the US population
NBC The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon = 1,329,000 or 0.4% of the US population

All of those four shows combined equal 2.1% of the total US population. Um... that's 2% of Americans, gang. A tiny amount.

Late-night talk show return pales while Gutfeld! snatches viewers - Washington Examiner

Fox News maintained its spot in first place in prime-time television yet again despite late-night talk shows returning. Per Nielsen's ratings, Gutfeld! in particular nabbed the most viewers last week at 2,062,000, leaving CBS's The Late Show with Stephen Colbert trailing behind with 1,984,000...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[LSLS]

Not sure if you have been watching any tv or going to the movies because I have seen trailers for The Marvels being played all the time. Also, they are doing tons of marketing on Youtube as well.

Nope, I don't watch TV (just hockey games on ESPN+ and old shows streaming), and I don't go to the movies much. Guess I'm too out of the loop at this point, I don't think I've had any ads pop up on Facebook or Youtube. Guess I'm an outlier, which isn't great news for their presales either.

 

[SosoDude]

I think this flops hard. I know Capt. Marvel did pretty well, but it was also sandwiched between Infinity War and End Game, when everyone was truly invested in the MCU story arc.... Now, not so much. ( I know Ant-man made less than Capt. Marvel, but it was a sequel, and Capt. Marvel was hyped up to be the biggest, baddest superhero EVER.)
Phase 4 and 5 has been forgettable so far with the exception of Spiderman and Guardians. I plan to take my family to see it (I've not missed a MCU theater release yet) but this is the first one that I've even considered missing. I initially watched all of the D+ series also. I didn't even care about those after Loki season 1. I've collected comics since 1980, love the stories and writers, love the art and artist, love the characters, love the lore and history, but the MCU has lost its appeal. And not only lost it's appeal to me, but to my wife, my son, daughter, and son-in law. When that many "demographics" loose interest, you're in trouble.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

I had little interest in seeing Capt Marvel, but went and saw it for the fact I wanted to see every film before Endgame. This sequel doesn't have that luxury and my interest in the MCU is way down compared to a few years ago

 

[erasure fan1]

I had little interest in seeing Capt Marvel, but went and saw it for the fact I wanted to see every film before Endgame. This sequel doesn't have that luxury

Yup. They did a great job of marketing the film as the must see lead up to endgame. And really when all was said and done, captain marvel was not needed in the least for endgame. That said, I enjoyed the first movie. But this one really has nothing to bring me to it. Maybe if something happens in Loki it might change my mind. But I've seen all the other D+ shows and nothing in any of them was must see for a film in my opinion.

 

[Phroobar]

The marketing budget might be less since they couldn't let the actors promote the film. They might be better off sending it to Disney+ instead of keeping it around the rest of the year to "pretend to make money" like Elemental did.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Yup. They did a great job of marketing the film as the must see lead up to endgame. And really when all was said and done, captain marvel was not needed in the least for endgame. That said, I enjoyed the first movie. But this one really has nothing to bring me to it. Maybe if something happens in Loki it might change my mind. But I've seen all the other D+ shows and nothing in any of them was must see for a film in my opinion.

Disagree. She plays a big enough role that I would hate not knowing who she was because I skipped that film

 

[erasure fan1]

Disagree. She plays a big enough role that I would hate not knowing who she was because I skipped that film

For me it didn't matter. She really didn't do all that much that needed a huge backstory in endgame. She came in at the start, then came back at the end, got knocked out by Thanos. It wouldn't have been all that much different than civil war. Black panther shows up, we don't have a lot of background on him. But that didn't matter. Then we get to see his whole story. Personally I would have put the black widow movie in-between and put captain marvel after Spider-Man far from home.

 

[Tha Realest]

For me it didn't matter. She really didn't do all that much that needed a huge backstory in endgame. She came in at the start, then came back at the end, got knocked out by Thanos. It wouldn't have been all that much different than civil war. Black panther shows up, we don't have a lot of background on him. But that didn't matter. Then we get to see his whole story. Personally I would have put the black widow movie in-between and put captain marvel after Spider-Man far from home.

Therein lies the problem with the increasing volume of “must see” Marvel content: it doesn’t all matter. But, they market a film or a show as a necessary prerequisite before The Next Big Thing, but then it’s not really needed.

I enjoyed Wandavision and Loki on their own terms just fine. They were great. But were they fully necessary to watch to make sense of what was happening in Dr Strange 2 or Ant Man 3? Not really - they did enough exposition to set those character arcs up within the film.

It’s the old comic book problem. When you read a mainline Justice League story and the third panel has an asterisk telling you you need to read Guy Garner 153-157 to get context for what’s happening. Soon, it all becomes a tedious chore and you stop buying them altogether.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Projections are downright horrific

 

[TP2000]

Projections are downright horrific

I just looked, and there are indeed some new articles and projections out there today. The Marvels is now tracking towards a projected opening weekend of only $75 Million domestically. Ouch.

'The Marvels' Box Office Projections Are Bad News For Marvel

The upcoming MCU sequel to Captain Marvel, titled The Marvels, is currently facing low box office projections ahead of its release.

www.screengeek.net

‘The Marvels’ Heading For $75M-$80M Opening; Roughly 50% Lower Than ‘Captain Marvel’ 3-Day – Early Box Office Look

Marvel Studios' The Marvels hit four-week lead tracking with a $75M-$80M, about 50% below the opening for 2019's 'Captain Marvel' movie starring Brie Larson.

deadline.com

"We’re told The Marvels is well below the top performing MCU titles among men under 35 and much closer to Ant-Man in the demo."

If The Marvels only does the same box office as Ant-Man '23, it will lose roughly $75 Million at the box office.

But if The Marvels only does 75% of the box office as Ant-Man '23, it will lose roughly $125 Million at the box office.