Captain Marvel 2: "The Marvels" -- Nov 10, 2023 Theatrical Release

[Tha Realest]

Not antsy. Just an observation that many very successful, in-demand films have their studios brag about their presales the day afterwards if they’re doing well. Yes, we should start seeing projections later today.

When I say “projections,” I mean industry watchers. If the numbers aren’t great and can’t be spun, I don’t believe Disney will mention them.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

This is one of the few MCU films I'm perfectly fine with waiting til D+ release. Though that will likely be more common going forward

 

[Phroobar]

Unless your a swifty

I don't think the Marvels is a must see first showing kind of movie.

 

[DKampy]

I don't think the Marvels is a must see first showing kind of movie.

Yeah… I agree… we will probably see it opening weekend as my wife is really excited for The Marvels, but I don’t plan on participating in the pre-sales, but I do think it depends on the movie…at least by us… we usually see movies on Sundays and sometimes even that day good seats are hard to come by depending on the movie especially if it is a film we want to see on the Ultra screen

 

[Tha Realest]

Uhh ohhhh….

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios' THE MARVELS

2023's holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels.

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[TP2000]

It is possible to open less than $90M domestically and still make over $650M
For example the fist Doctor Strange opened at $85M domestic and ended up making $677M WW. Venom, which is MCU adjacent, opened at $80M domestic and ended up making $856M WW.

Yes, I'm sure we can find some exceptions to that rule. But the fact remains that this movie needs roughly $650 Million at the global box office to break even. Using the last two years of mega-budget Marvel movies as a guide, that would generally require at least a $90 Million opening weekend box office domestically.

So these are not "hard facts", they are just your back of napkin figures. While it makes it easier to get to $650M or higher if it opens higher than $90M, it is not a rule that it must. We'll see how it turns out, but it'll make whatever it makes.

It's not merely a back of napkin figure. This is a back of a damp cocktail napkin at the Marine Room just before the Maitre d' announces our table is ready figure. And I'm awfully proud that I could do basic math in that situation.

The budget for The Marvels, after a gracious gift of $50 Million from the British taxpayer, is reported to be $220 Million. Assuming they spend $100 Million on marketing for this tentpole movie, it won't break even until it reaches roughly $650 Million at the global box office. If it's not getting at least $90 Million domestically on its opening Veterans Day Weekend debut, it's going to be extremely difficult for it to get there.

Unless there's some massive overseas groundswell of box office sales to overcome its disappointing domestic box office.

 

[TP2000]

Uhh ohhhh….

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios' THE MARVELS

2023's holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels.

www.boxofficepro.com

View attachment 748588

No kidding.

Pre-Sales are 72% worse than Ant-Man Quantumania. Granted, the world far from our shores is currently in flames and the lovely Miss Taylor Swift is currently in charge of the American box office, so things are a bit wonky, but...

The Marvels Early Box Office Projections Are 72% Worse Than Quantumania

Predictions are bleak for the next MCU team-up.

screenrant.com

Ouch: ‘The Marvels’ is Long-Range Tracking at $50M-$75M Domestically — World of Reel

There have been six DCEU/MCU movies released in 2023 — only one has met expectations at the box-office. Superhero fatigue is real.

www.worldofreel.com

If The Marvels somehow recovers mightily once it opens and makes the same amount of money as Ant-Man Quantumania did, then that would mean The Marvels would lose roughly $90 Million for Disney.

If, worst case scenario, The Marvels only recovers slightly from its pre-sales figures and thus does 50% of the global box office that Ant-Man did, then that would mean The Marvels would lose roughly $200 Million for Disney.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, I'm sure we can find some exceptions to that rule. But the fact remains that this movie needs roughly $650 Million at the global box office to break even. Using the last two years of mega-budget Marvel movies as a guide, that would generally require at least a $90 Million opening weekend box office domestically.



It's not merely a back of napkin figure. This is a back of a damp cocktail napkin at the Marine Room just before the Maitre d' announces our table is ready figure. And I'm awfully proud that I could do basic math in that situation.

The budget for The Marvels, after a gracious gift of $50 Million from the British taxpayer, is reported to be $220 Million. Assuming they spend $100 Million on marketing for this tentpole movie, it won't break even until it reaches roughly $650 Million at the global box office. If it's not getting at least $90 Million domestically on its opening Veterans Day Weekend debut, it's going to be extremely difficult for it to get there.

Unless there's some massive overseas groundswell of box office sales to overcome its disappointing domestic box office.

Point is the "required" $90M domestic opening rule you're claiming is not a rule at all, because it simple does not exist. Just like the "rule of thumb" is also not a real rule its just a simple metric that the media uses and can be wrong. As it doesn't account for things like the real marketing budgets which is almost never known, or the real splits and other real costs or tax breaks and incentives a studio might have spent or gotten, again all of which is almost never known.

Also just an FYI, almost all Hollywood movies have tax breaks, just most aren't publicly known or reported in the media. It why Hollywood films things in certain locations over and over, like how Toronto fills in for many major US cities like LA and New York. Its why Marvel films most MCU movies in either Atlanta or Pinewood in London, because of the tax breaks and other incentives. And its why most "budgets" that are reported aren't the real budgets because they never include any of those tax breaks and incentives.

So anyways as I said we'll see what happens, but it'll make whatever its going to make.

 

[Tha Realest]

Point is the "required" $90M domestic opening rule you're claiming is not a rule at all, because it simple does not exist. Just like the "rule of thumb" is also not a real rule its just a simple metric that the media uses and can be wrong. As it doesn't account for things like the real marketing budgets which is almost never known, or the real splits and other real costs or tax breaks and incentives a studio might have spent or gotten, again all of which is almost never known.

Also just an FYI, almost all Hollywood movies have tax breaks, just most aren't publicly known or reported in the media. It why Hollywood films things in certain locations over and over, like how Toronto fills in for many major US cities like LA and New York. Its why Marvel films most MCU movies in either Atlanta or Pinewood in London, because of the tax breaks and other incentives. And its why most "budgets" that are reported aren't the real budgets because they never include any of those tax breaks and incentives.

So anyways as I said we'll see what happens, but it'll make whatever its going to make.

Yeah, no need to freak out. A major Marvel film, a sequel to one that grossed over a billion dollars, is about to post Black Adam opening numbers.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The Marvels Early Box Office Projections Are 72% Worse Than Quantumania

Predictions are bleak for the next MCU team-up.

screenrant.com

Bad article. Quoting both Box Office Pro and Grace Randolph <eyeroll>. No real analysis. Clickbait for those eager to see Disney fail.

Ouch: ‘The Marvels’ is Long-Range Tracking at $50M-$75M Domestically — World of Reel

There have been six DCEU/MCU movies released in 2023 — only one has met expectations at the box-office. Superhero fatigue is real.

www.worldofreel.com

Good article. Still quoting Box Office Pro, though. But... has real analysis and doesn't buy into that the forecast is set in stone.

Some notes:

1. Box Office Pro has a poor record in its long term forecasts. There was a Reddit thread grading its forecast v. what eventually happened and its accuracy only got a "C" rating.

2. Analysis so far fails to account for a dearth of tentpole and family films this Fall heading into Christmas thanks to the various content-creator strikes. This should help Marvels, Wish, and Aquaman.

 

[Ghost93]

Bad article. Quoting both Box Office Pro and Grace Randolph <eyeroll>. No real analysis. Clickbait for those eager to see Disney fail.

I think Box Office Pro is fine, as it constantly updates its forecasts as new information comes in. Its forecasts months ahead are often off, but it usually is fairly accurate when we get to the week of release.

I believe Grace Randolph does have some legit sources, but her problem is she never owns up when she or her source makes a mistake, which can hurt her overall credibility even when many of her scoops turn out to be correct. She also tends to put the value of a film on how commercial it is, which can be frustrating for those who champion letting artists make films according to their unique vision.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I think Box Office Pro is fine, as it constantly updates its forecasts as new information comes in. Its forecasts months ahead are often off, but it usually is fairly accurate when we get to the week of release.

For opening weekend? Yes.

Long term? No. That Reddit thread wasn't just comparing long-way-off predictions to the actuals.

The Box Office has become very unpredictable of late with tent poles failing and other films doing surprising well. We've seen giant opening weeks with immediately drop offs. And we've seen some films with surprising legs (Elemental) or doing very well domestically, but failing internationally (TLM).

Not to mention the entire box office receipts for the year are still at what, 20% below pre-pandemic levels?

At this time in history, long term box office predictions are like long term weather predictions.

 

[Tha Realest]

For opening weekend? Yes.

Long term? No. That Reddit thread wasn't just comparing long-way-off predictions to the actuals.

The Box Office has become very unpredictable of late with tent poles failing and other films doing surprising well. We've seen giant opening weeks with immediately drop offs. And we've seen some films with surprising legs (Elemental) or doing very well domestically, but failing internationally (TLM).

Not to mention the entire box office receipts for the year are still at what, 20% below pre-pandemic levels?

At this time in history, long term box office predictions are like long term weather predictions.

We’ll know in a little over a month how this turns out! If those projections are in line with reality, it’ll be hard to say no one saw this coming.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, no need to freak out. A major Marvel film, a sequel to one that grossed over a billion dollars, is about to post Black Adam opening numbers.

I don't think anyone is freaking out. And its too early to make those predictions. Early box office predictions aren't always accurate as MisterPenguin pointed out, they can be adjusted up or even down in the weeks leading up to release. Its only been two full days since tickets went on-sale as I post this. Since there is no major MCU event happening so I wouldn't have anticipated sell out theaters this early into opening weekend sales.

And even if it opens similar to Black Adam numbers, doesn't mean it'll have the same results as Black Adam. Just look at Elemental, it opened almost $40M lower than Black Adam but ended up making over $100M more.

 

[Tha Realest]

Bad article. Quoting both Box Office Pro and Grace Randolph <eyeroll>. No real analysis. Clickbait for those eager to see Disney fail.




Good article. Still quoting Box Office Pro, though. But... has real analysis and doesn't buy into that the forecast is set in stone.

Some notes:

1. Box Office Pro has a poor record in its long term forecasts. There was a Reddit thread grading its forecast v. what eventually happened and its accuracy only got a "C" rating.

2. Analysis so far fails to account for a dearth of tentpole and family films this Fall heading into Christmas thanks to the various content-creator strikes. This should help Marvels, Wish, and Aquaman.

Surely Disney will announce where they stand on the presales to demonstrate the enthusiasm for this film and contradict these less than rosy predictions

 

[TP2000]

So anyways as I said we'll see what happens, but it'll make whatever its going to make.

The Marvels has a production budget of $220 Million. Assuming they spend $100 Million on marketing, The Marvels will need roughly $650 Million at the global box office for it to break even.

 

[TP2000]

Good article. Still quoting Box Office Pro, though. But... has real analysis and doesn't buy into that the forecast is set in stone.

If Box Office Pro is no good, which box office tracking service should be looking for in analysis and media reports?

I'd be happy to filter Google searches for that service only, if you or someone could recommend something.

Here's a new article from Men's Journal, but it also quotes Box Office Pro. On the bright side, if you don't like their take on pre-sales for The Marvels, they do have an article about how to keep your Summer Beach Bod through the holidays...

https://www.mensjournal.com/streaming/the-marvels-predicted-to-flop

 

[Tha Realest]

I don't think anyone is freaking out. And its too early to make those predictions.

if someone at Disney and Marvel aren’t freaked out about the prospect of yet another (or in Marvel’s case, first) film that’s set to lose over $100M at the box office, then they’re being quite foolish

 

[TP2000]

if someone at Disney and Marvel aren’t freaked out about the prospect of yet another (or in Marvel’s case, first) film that’s set to lose over $100M at the box office, then they’re being quite foolish

Here's some food for thought...

If The Marvels does the same box office as Quantumania, it will lose $90 Million.

If The Marvels does the same box office as Black Adam, it will lose $125 Million.

First Captain Marvel 2 Box Office Projections Are Abysmal

Marvel Studios could be headed for a box office failure with Captain Marvel 2.

thedirect.com

 

[DKampy]

The Marvels has a production budget of $220 Million. Assuming they spend $100 Million on marketing, The Marvels will need roughly $650 Million at the global box office for it to break even.

We heard you the last 20 times you mentioned that