Captain America 4

J

jrice

Member
This movie is not doing well and here is why. Note: You have to remember inflation (up) and the amount of people visiting the theaters today (down), so it is silly to compare movies from five to ten years ago.

The budget for this movie was not $180MM. They had at least two major re-shoots (which delayed this movie again and again) so I would almost double it. But lets say that is not important right now and just run the numbers for ticket prices and attendance.
  • Avg Ticket Prices:
    • 2014 - $8.17
    • 2022 - $10.53
    • 2024 - $15.17
For comparison, we will use Winter Soldier which made $95MM - TEN years ago for three day weekend (NA only) while Cap 4 made $88.5MM for a three day weekend (NA only). Simple math: $95MM / $8.17 = 11.6MM in attendance. For Cap 4 per Deadline, 5.8MM in attendance! This is not a movie people wanted and disservice to Anthony Mackie.

Disney (including Hollywood Reporter, Deadline and Variety), we see what you are doing here and please stop! The trades mags need to stop comparing pre-pandemic movies because it is not accurate. This is going to hurt merchandise sales as well.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
jrice said:
This movie is not doing well and here is why. Note: You have to remember inflation (up) and the amount of people visiting the theaters today (down), so it is silly to compare movies from five to ten years ago.

The budget for this movie was not $180MM. They had at least two major re-shoots (which delayed this movie again and again) so I would almost double it. But lets say that is not important right now and just run the numbers for ticket prices and attendance.
  • Avg Ticket Prices:
    • 2014 - $8.17
    • 2022 - $10.53
    • 2024 - $15.17
For comparison, we will use Winter Soldier which made $95MM - TEN years ago for three day weekend (NA only) while Cap 4 made $88.5MM for a three day weekend (NA only). Simple math: $95MM / $8.17 = 11.6MM in attendance. For Cap 4 per Deadline, 5.8MM in attendance! This is not a movie people wanted and disservice to Anthony Mackie.

Disney (including Hollywood Reporter, Deadline and Variety), we see what you are doing here and please stop! The trades mags need to stop comparing pre-pandemic movies because it is not accurate. This is going to hurt merchandise sales as well.
Click to expand...
Where did you get the 2024 number from?

As most sites I've seen have the average ticket price for 2023 and 2024 pretty much the same which is $10.78.

www.the-numbers.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2025

Overall movie market summary for each year 1995 to 2025
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
jrice said:
This movie is not doing well and here is why. Note: You have to remember inflation (up) and the amount of people visiting the theaters today (down), so it is silly to compare movies from five to ten years ago.

The budget for this movie was not $180MM. They had at least two major re-shoots (which delayed this movie again and again) so I would almost double it. But lets say that is not important right now and just run the numbers for ticket prices and attendance.
  • Avg Ticket Prices:
    • 2014 - $8.17
    • 2022 - $10.53
    • 2024 - $15.17
For comparison, we will use Winter Soldier which made $95MM - TEN years ago for three day weekend (NA only) while Cap 4 made $88.5MM for a three day weekend (NA only). Simple math: $95MM / $8.17 = 11.6MM in attendance. For Cap 4 per Deadline, 5.8MM in attendance! This is not a movie people wanted and disservice to Anthony Mackie.

Disney (including Hollywood Reporter, Deadline and Variety), we see what you are doing here and please stop! The trades mags need to stop comparing pre-pandemic movies because it is not accurate. This is going to hurt merchandise sales as well.
Click to expand...

Really interesting take on using the average cost of ticket prices in the past versus today to come up with ballpark attendance figures! That's quite telling, and the trendline is clear.

FYI, the box office tracking website has a nifty Inflation Adjusted feature that uses the federal government's CPI to show the inflation adjusted numbers on specific films. You can track up to six movies together and see their inflation adjusted box office that way, and it's very helpful.

For example, here's how those inflation adjusted dollars look for Winter Soldier compared to the most recent Captain America.

Vintage 2014.jpg


 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
TP2000 said:
Really interesting take on using the average cost of ticket prices in the past versus today to come up with ballpark attendance figures! That's quite telling, and the trendline is clear.

FYI, the box office tracking website has a nifty Inflation Adjusted feature that uses the federal government's CPI to show the inflation adjusted numbers on specific films. You can track up to six movies together and see their inflation adjusted box office that way, and it's very helpful.

For example, here's how those inflation adjusted dollars look for Winter Soldier compared to the most recent Captain America.

View attachment 844891

Click to expand...
Again its not some new thing being discussed. Many of us have had this same discussion about declining tickets sales vs increased ticket prices in the box office thread and various other threads in this forum for years now. They've been declining for over 2 decades starting in 2003 after the height of 2002.

Your favorite website has a nice little graph showing the same thing, I marked with an arrow so its clearer the decline -

1739917045017.png


www.the-numbers.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2025

Overall movie market summary for each year 1995 to 2025
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
brideck

brideck

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Again its not some new thing being discussed. Many of us have had this same discussion about declining tickets sales vs increased ticket prices in the box office thread and various other threads in this forum for years now. They've been declining for over 2 decades starting in 2003 after the height of 2002.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't remember why, but I definitely did some analysis many pages ago in the Box Office thread (probably in discussion around Poor Things) to show that at least a third of the ticket sales have gone away in the art-house scene since the pandemic, and this is the easiest metric to use for those kinds of determinations.

Though, yeah, you've really got to use the right denominator. Using $10.78 (Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) would get you 8.1m tickets for the 3-day weekend, which is right in line with the first Cap movie's opening.
 
J

jrice

Member
Disney Irish said:
Where did you get the 2024 number from?

As most sites I've seen have the average ticket price for 2023 and 2024 pretty much the same which is $10.78.

www.the-numbers.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2025

Overall movie market summary for each year 1995 to 2025
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
Click to expand...
It is from the Box office stat firm EntTelligence stated the average ticket price for Cap 4 was $15.17 (general). This was from Deadline: http://deadline.com/2025/02/box-office-captian-america-brave-new-world-1236289044/
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
brideck said:
Yeah, I don't remember why, but I definitely did some analysis many pages ago in the Box Office thread (probably in discussion around Poor Things) to show that at least a third of the ticket sales have gone away in the art-house scene since the pandemic, and this is the easiest metric to use for those kinds of determinations.

Though, yeah, you've really got to use the right denominator. Using $10.78 (Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) would get you 8.1m tickets for the 3-day weekend, which is right in line with the first Cap movie's opening.
Click to expand...
BTW, I just looked it up and Numbers has Cap 4 at 9.3M tickets sold so far domestically -

1739926480083.png


www.the-numbers.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2025

Annual Movie Market Summary for 2025
www.the-numbers.com www.the-numbers.com
 
MickeyMouse10

MickeyMouse10

Well-Known Member
If the 380 million is accurate for the budget. This is about what it needs to just breakeven.

380 x 2 = 760 million (theaters get half the profits) + 190 million (for marketing) = 950 million (is the breakeven)
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
MickeyMouse10 said:
If the 380 million is accurate for the budget. This is about what it needs to just breakeven.

380 x 2 = 760 million (theaters get half the profits) + 190 million (for marketing) = 950 million (is the breakeven)
Click to expand...
I'd be shocked if that is accurate honestly. It's a shorter film, and I can't imagine anyone outside of MAYBE Ford is commanding a giant salary. I don't see any way they would OK this movie knowing they were going to need a billion dollars to break even. I think it's far more likely that $380 number is closer to the break even point not including marketing. I've not seen that number anywhere else.
 

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