News Bob Iger is back! Chapek is out!!

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There is a very narrow but equally intriguing social study into this specific position. I think The Walt Disney Company is such a unique creature: it is the largest Fortune 100 Company that is primarily in media holdings. While the IPO is eligible for Medicare, it had significant family influence up until the completion of the Iger ascension. Historically, it's one of the surest stocks ever, rivaling energy and pharmaceutical companies--purveyors of necessities of every day life competing with a movie studio that kept getting bigger. I think the most unique thing about The Walt Disney Company among its contemporaries in the Fortune 100 is right there in the name. Some names describe the core business loosely (Comcast), something abstract (Apple, Alphabet), the product of mergers (ExxonMobil, JP Morgan Chase), or simply a family name of the founders (Kroger, Albertsons), but the identity of The Walt Disney Company is forever inseparable from the first person to ever run it.

This invariably means that whoever finds themselves with the appropriate mindset to even reach the office of CEO for The Walt Disney Company will forever be compared to Walt Disney; by customers, historians, media, employees, fellow company leaders, and of course, the CEOs themselves. If you sit in that chair long enough, not only do you clearly start to think you are the only person with the unique capability to run the company, you might even start to think of yourself as the next Walt Disney.

Excellent…very detailed analysis

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's weird that people are obsessed with theaters but not other events. Nobody is claiming that Spotify is killing Taylor Swift's ability to sell concert tickets. Nobody is claiming that Peacock is killing WWE's ability to sell wrestling tickets. Nobody is claiming that ESPN is killing the NFL's ability to sell football tickets. But Disney+ is killing theaters. I don't get it.

Movies are easily accessible to everyone…sporting events and Taylor Swift are the opposite

Want to talk about watching Broadway plays in Tulsa so we can complete this dance?

 

[_caleb]

I loved that ride…they just couldn’t keep the wet AA working.

I’d love to see them try again

I think it worked better as a part of the studio tour at Universal Studios Hollywood.

“This is the very lagoon where the hit film Jaws was made!”
Audio: Dah-dunh... dah-dunh…

 

[LittleBuford]

Try turning off motion interpolation.

An absolute travesty of a feature. It makes everything look like a soap opera. I’ll never understand why it was invented.

 

[Jrb1979]

Well, so far it’s worked out great, since their goal was to build up a subscriber base. Now that investors are getting anxious about it making money, we’ll have to see what they’re going to come up with. I don’t think they ever give anything away for free.

I would consider putting on streaming as being free. Yes they are getting subscriptions from it but the movie itself isn't making money. It's why they need to go back to charging people to watch it on streaming for the first year.

 

[_caleb]

There are perhaps millions of years of social cues and experience that keeps the theater concept alive. Like annoying laugh tracks on sitcoms, we are only annoyed when we are aware of them.
Even people.that say theaters are dying and don't go much also claim they make a theater going deal out of Marvel release so even they go multiple times a year.

Wait, so all the back and forth yesterday was because you thought I was saying NOBODY likes going to movie theaters and that the very concept of cinema is going to die out and never return?

 

[_caleb]

Start by comparing apples and apples

Movies are something that the same packaged content repeat in nearly every town (without variation), multiple times a day, 7 days a week, for weeks or months at a time.

That is not the same for a concert, or a sporting event.

A Live event is not comparable to a recorded media presentation when talking about access, repeatability, etc.

ESPN doesn't bring the NY Giants to my living room.

Try turning on “motion smoothing” on your TV see if that helps

 

[_caleb]

I would consider putting on streaming as being free. Yes they are getting subscriptions from it but the movie itself isn't making money. It's why they need to go back to charging people to watch it on streaming for the first year.

Streaming is HUGE business. Did you know that there is a ton of science/psychology behind how consumers think about subscriptions that make us prone to rationalize, forget, and feel good about paying them?

The fact that you consider releasing content on Disney+ to be “giving it away for free” is actually evidence of how effective it can be.

 

[el_super]

Even people.that say theaters are dying and don't go much also claim they make a theater going deal out of Marvel release so even they go multiple times a year.

This is me. I go to the movies to catch a Marvel release, but really only then it's due to not wanting to be spoiled by reviews/content on the internet. The primary motivation for going to the theater isn't quality of experience (and I don't think they're all that), but rather immediate access.

The premiere access on Disney+ satisfied that criteria for me nicely.

I know the box office numbers are still trailing behind 2019 numbers, but I think it might still be too early to tell if the shift away from in-person theaters is going to have a lasting impact or not.

 

[michmousefan]

An absolute travesty of a feature. It makes everything look like a soap opera. I’ll never understand why it was invented.

Just as a PSA for those that still might be puzzled by the damnable motion smoothing... Here's Mr. Cruise and McQuarrie:

 

[Smiley/OCD]

Just FYI, I don't think it was Napster/Apple that obliterated the old music industry, it was the rise of highend software for low costs. When I was younger, we would go to a studio with close to a million dollars dumped into software/hardware just to get a professional sound. To do this, you needed a label that owned/contracted a studio like that and would front the costs, and take 90% of your sales. I can now create nearly identical quality in my room with a $250 audio interface, $60 software, a decent mic, and a handful of plugins for around $200. Now that I can afford to make it myself, I don't need to sign on with a record company that will fund my release but take 90% of the profits from what I made. All I need is a way to get my music to the radio/top of the streaming lists. Yes, they make less now due to streaming, but I honestly think the improvement in gear and the industry not finding a pivot really hit it the hardest.

I worked in music retail and owned my own store during that period of time…I have firsthand knowledge of what happened to the music industry…

It was mainly a combination of two factors….
1) the 5 major labels: WEA (Warner Bros), Sony, Capitol, MCA & PMD (Polygram) were (at the time), run by old time record executives and believed they were the “Kings of the industry”, a legal cartel if you will, that were CONVINCED that downloading was a fad, something that would NEVER effect their business…they were too big to fail…(SOUND FAMILIAR, DISNEY?). As events unfolded, they learned QUICKLY, they failed to prepare for the future.

The second catastrophe for the music business was Napster. My store was a full service store, but specialized in dance music. I sold 12” singles, domestic and import and supplied every club and DJ at the Jersey shore and had DJ’s from as far away as DE, PA,& NY.
My good DJ customers would meet the UPS driver and as fast as I unpacked the vinyl, they would buy it. Within 3 months, my business slowed to a crawl. WHY? DJ’s we’re downloading the music from Napster. They went from carrying milk crates out of my store to spinning music from a laptop. On top of that, 9/11 happened and we were in the midst of a recession. 1 hurdle I could’ve weathered…3 hurdles, impossible. After 7 years, I had no other alternative but to close my store and try to sell my inventory.
The major labels learned that computers were the new way to deliver music. We, as an industry couldn’t compete with free and the majors had to scramble to make money off downloading. They never thought twice about the major chains that were their outlets, Record Town, Record World, Sam Goody, Tower, the Wiz and more plus the independents. In 2001, there was no Apple Music.
This is the example I always use when people talk about UNI creeping up on Disney. They too think they’re the kings of the hill…when you’re on top, there’s only one way to go…and it ain’t up.

 

[UNCgolf]

Nobody is claiming that ESPN is killing the NFL's ability to sell football tickets.

This actually has been a claim -- not in those exact terms, but there have been discussions that the advent of HD, large screens, etc. at home (along with the skyrocketing costs to actually attend an event) has made it much harder for sports teams to sell tickets than even 20 years ago.

It's obviously not going to end live sporting events, because there are still plenty of people who want to go. It's just decreased the potential audience for ticket sales as the at-home experience has improved, because there are people who may have bought tickets 25 years ago who now prefer to just watch at home.

 

[Touchdown]

Not to mention the added security hassles, loss of close tailgating and proliferation of prime time sporting events (which are not spectator friendly due to late endings.)

 

[Jrb1979]

Streaming is HUGE business. Did you know that there is a ton of science/psychology behind how consumers think about subscriptions that make us prone to rationalize, forget, and feel good about paying them?

The fact that you consider releasing content on Disney+ to be “giving it away for free” is actually evidence of how effective it can be.

You know what I mean. It's why I put "free" in quotation marks. To make it easier for you to understand I change it to included with your subscription. IMO new movies should be an extra $20 to $30 each on top of your subscription for the first 6 months of it's release.

 

[UNCgolf]

Not to mention the added security hassles, loss of close tailgating and proliferation of prime time sporting events (which are not spectator friendly due to late endings.)

Yeah, there are many reasons why ticket sales are down for non-major events -- but the significant improvement in the at-home experience has made it easier for people to skip going for those reasons.

 

[Casper Gutman]

It’s probably relevant to add that as much as movies are finding big audiences at the theaters there ARE two categories of film that are struggling. The first is Oscar-y prestige pics like Tar and She Said. The second, more relevant category is Disney animated films.

Chapek trained audiences not to bother with taking kids to cinemas by sticking prestigious, critically acclaimed content like Turning Red, Soul, and Luna on streaming. Disney is also probably hurt by strong brand identification here, because everyone knows where to find Disney and Pixar animated films on streaming. For something like Minions, the streaming outlet is less clear and the audience’s mental connection between the film and “watch it on streaming” less immeadiate.

I don’t know how Disney breaks this cycle - as sad as it is to say, they probably need some big showy sequels to market as events. If they’ve got a Toy Story 5 or Incredibles 3 in any stage of development, now is the time to step on the gas. This may also be a moment to gamble big on a hand drawn revival or to put the first full-length narrative film (in any animated style) starring Mickey and friends into development. ANYTHING to break the established pattern.

 

[UNCgolf]

This may also be a moment to gamble big on a hand drawn revival or to put the first full-length narrative film (in any animated style) starring Mickey and friends into development. ANYTHING to break the established pattern.

I've actually wondered if this has hurt Disney to an extent. Their hand drawn films generally had a distinct style that identified it as a Disney production almost at a glance. The CGI Disney films have lost that, I think -- when I saw an ad for Strange World a couple of weeks ago (I'd never heard of it and had no idea it was a Disney film) it was indistinguishable from Dreamworks etc. to me. I would not have guessed it was a Disney film until I saw the Disney logo.

That doesn't mean they need to go back to hand drawn, but I do think they need something to differentiate their films from competitors. They do not want their product to be grouped in with everyone else by the general public.

 

[MrPromey]

Just FYI, I don't think it was Napster/Apple that obliterated the old music industry, it was the rise of highend software for low costs. When I was younger, we would go to a studio with close to a million dollars dumped into software/hardware just to get a professional sound. To do this, you needed a label that owned/contracted a studio like that and would front the costs, and take 90% of your sales. I can now create nearly identical quality in my room with a $250 audio interface, $60 software, a decent mic, and a handful of plugins for around $200. Now that I can afford to make it myself, I don't need to sign on with a record company that will fund my release but take 90% of the profits from what I made. All I need is a way to get my music to the radio/top of the streaming lists. Yes, they make less now due to streaming, but I honestly think the improvement in gear and the industry not finding a pivot really hit it the hardest.

Equipment and software got cheaper but wouldn't you say the labels still held the keys to the kingdom? How were you ever going to get into Best Buy and Circuit City without them at that point?

Not just getting into stores but I don't think the creation of glass masters was all that cheap and of course, there was the matter of getting disks pressed in volume and shipped across the world into retail, assuming you had the pull to get those places to stock your disks and, as you mentioned, to pay to get you radio play.

I'm sure things like Logic Pro made a difference but that had been around since the early 90's.

What I was driving at is that Napster devalued the business and Apple "saved it" by setting a fixed price that the studios (and everyone else) had to accept and allowing pretty much anyone to upload their music for sale so your stuff could be in the same store as the likes of Eminem, globally, almost overnight.

On that pricing point, I remember bands like the Beatles and Pink Floyd were holdouts for quite a while until they finally had to accept the inevitable. I don't think cheap audio equipment and production software brought the price of Dark Side of the Moon and the White Album down to $9.99.

I'm sure lower priced software helped make that possible but honestly, renting studio time seems like it was probably the least expensive part of the production and marketing of a band in that era that expected to grow much in the popular market.

 

[el_super]

Chapek trained audiences

Chapek was "CEO" for just short of three years. I have a hard time believing that he could enact some wide spread change of audience habits in that short of time even if he were trying.

This isn't a matter of trying to retrain audiences to go back to theaters. This is simply an issue of finding out how to monetize what the audience is already doing: staying home.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I've actually wondered if this has hurt Disney to an extent. Their hand drawn films generally had a distinct style that identified it as a Disney production almost at a glance. The CGI Disney films have lost that, I think -- when I saw an ad for Strange World a couple of weeks ago (I'd never heard of it and had no idea it was a Disney film) it was indistinguishable from Dreamworks etc. to me. I would not have guessed it was a Disney film until I saw the Disney logo.

That doesn't mean they need to go back to hand drawn, but I do think they need something to differentiate their films from competitors.

Yup. And at the same time they need something that says, “this is an animated film you see in THEATERS, that’s one you see on streaming.” The Pixar name should have been that thing, but they messed it up.