Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

[Disney Irish]

Sigh...

The value is based on past good behavior and continued expectation of such, that people agree on its value and have reassurance that said value will be maintained by responsible stewardship... which is largely the way the US Treasury Department has acted throughout its history.

The stick of gum and digital currency have no such institutional trust, hence their value is solely based on what someone else is willing to pay for them.

I would really love to track down the crypto-bros who circa 2019 told me how much I was missing out, how behind the times I was, how I was afraid of innovation, etc. I would like to compare how their crypto dreams have panned out against my slow but steady traditional investments. Because along with institutional trust, Schadenfreude is also a thing.

I agree they have no current institutional trust. And I am by no means a crypto proponent. But with that said there has been talk about having US backed digital currency. My point was to say that it only has value because its agreed value, its not backed by anything other than that agreed value. Just the same as with any other currency today, its all agreed value. A dollar is worthless if that agreed value goes away.

Ultimately I think we're saying the same thing, you just articulated it better.

Anyways, this is a larger topic that is best had elsewhere.

 

[Phroobar]

... Or Demi Moore being topless.

Good times. Good times.

 

[TP2000]

Yes, I did see how you chose the parameters of your comparisons so as to have cherry-picked information to make the point your were making.

I get it that the Marvel films of 2022 underperformed just a tad, especially compared to their hugely bloated budgets. But surely I can't be the only person who, in mid December, looks back on the past year and determines how an industry or set of products did.

You can do that for anything, and people often do in December; for annual car sales, stock prices, commodity prices, bushels of Meyer Lemons, etc., etc.

Which is what I did for movies; the 2022 performance of big budget Marvel and action films. Or would you have liked me to compare the 2022 Marvel/Action Films to the Romantic Comedies of 1994 instead? I'm confused.

 

[TP2000]

I would really love to track down the crypto-bros who circa 2019 told me how much I was missing out, how behind the times I was, how I was afraid of innovation, etc. I would like to compare how their crypto dreams have panned out against my slow but steady traditional investments. Because along with institutional trust, Schadenfreude is also a thing.

I put the Billions that Disney has invested into streaming into a baffling category not far removed from Crypto.

Like Crypto, I just can't figure out how Burbank is going to make any real money off of it long-term.

But at least with streaming, the computer code sends you Herbie Goes Bananas to your TV for 8 bucks a month.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I put the Billions that Disney has invested into streaming into a baffling category not far removed from Crypto.

Like Crypto, I just can't figure out how Burbank is going to make any real money off of it long-term.

But at least with streaming, the computer code sends you Herbie Goes Bananas to your TV for 8 bucks a month.

Streaming is the industry go to for addressing two problems:
1. The decline of lucrative cable/satellite revenue
2. Uncertainty in the box office lasting


It makes total sense. But the problem is none of them has any clue if it will be lucrative long term. They’re guessing and hope they’re right

 

[MisterPenguin]

I get it that the Marvel films of 2022 underperformed just a tad, especially compared to their hugely bloated budgets. But surely I can't be the only person who, in mid December, looks back on the past year and determines how an industry or set of products did.

But you are doing so by abusing data.

How did Wakanda Forever do? How shall we compare it?

I know! Let's only look at the top movies that have done better than it. And, oh, look... it doesn't fare well in that comparison.​

Of course it doesn't. You just abused data. I demonstrated how that abuse is done by deciding to compare Maverick to all the other movies that did better than it. Of course that then makes Maverick look unremarkable.

If you want to stop abusing data by cherry-picking only those data points that fit your narrative/agenda, then look at the box office receipts of *ALL* the wide-released movies from all the studios in the time frame you want to look at. Do that, and Wakanda looks darned good.... compared to all the data, and not your cherry-picked data.

You also abuse data by trying to look at more than one criteria of success at the same time. One criterion is: What was the total Box Office? Another criterion is: Did it make a profit taking into consideration its budget?

And so, you go off on a tangent about movies' budgets since you learned, only recently, the effect of the budget on the profitability and how to figure that out. And so now, movie budgets are your new line of attack.

Do you really think you can get away with such fallacious arguments by sprinkling in your haute cuisine lifestyle of appletinis and soirees in Victorian mansions as you keep hammering away at every Disney content repeating yourself over and over again?

Now if you excuse me, my can of Diet Pepsi is getting warm and I still have some Cheez Whiz left in the can and some Ritz crackers that won't eat themselves.

 

[TP2000]

Streaming is the industry go to for addressing two problems:
1. The decline of lucrative cable/satellite revenue
2. Uncertainty in the box office lasting


It makes total sense. But the problem is none of them has any clue if it will be lucrative long term. They’re guessing and hope they’re right

Yup. I get streaming from a tech standpoint, and I like it as a consumer. I use it and pay small amounts of money for it.

But from a corporate profit standpoint? I don't get it. It seems to have led to the downfall of Bob Chapek as the CEO, since it's costing Burbank Billions of dollars to get off the ground and still isn't turning a profit. Will Bob Iger be able to figure it out? I'm not so sure, especially since Bob Iger started the streaming business plan himself and just seems to be doubling down on it by sending huge flops like Strange World to streaming only a month after opening.

I just can't wrap my brain around how this makes anyone any money long-term. It costs a fortune just to keep going, let alone to feed with new content constantly. For 8 bucks a month? Even with Doritos commercials now thrown in???

 

[TP2000]

But you are doing so by abusing data.

How did Wakanda Forever do? How shall we compare it?

I know! Let's only look at the top movies that have done better than it. And, oh, look... it doesn't fare well in that comparison.​

Of course it doesn't. You just abused data. I demonstrated how that abuse is done by deciding to compare Maverick to all the other movies that did better than it. Of course that then makes Maverick look unremarkable.

If you want to stop abusing data by cherry-picking only those data points that fit your narrative/agenda, then look at the box office receipts of *ALL* the wide-released movies from all the studios in the time frame you want to look at. Do that, and Wakanda looks darned good.... compared to all the data, and not your cherry-picked data.

Wait a minute, I looked at the box office results of all four Marvel films from 2022; Spiderman, Dr. Strange, Thor 4, and now Wakanda Forever. With Top Gun Maverick also shown as the biggest hit of 2022 in a year where panicky execs like to blame "Covid!" for bad box office even though Americans are happy to pack theaters since last Christmas if it's a movie worth spending money on. And then, because it's a Black Panther thread, I included the original Black Panther from 2018 that was more successful than its 2022 sequel.

And that's cherry picking to you? Comparing the four Marvel movies of the last year and the biggest hit of the last year? This was the chart I created that seems to have set you off (again).

You would rather I also included Bros and Minions and The Menu and West Side Story in that tale of the tape?
That makes no sense. We're talking Marvel hits of 2022 and their most direct competition.

Do you really think you can get away with such fallacious arguments by sprinkling in your haute cuisine lifestyle of appletinis and soirees in Victorian mansions as you keep hammering away at every Disney content repeating yourself over and over again?

There you've lost me entirely.

Appletini? Who the hell drinks an Appletini? Do you think I'm a sorority girl who uses a fake ID at a crappy TGIFriday's?

Soirees at Victorian mansions? That sounds incredibly dull. And dusty. And things I'm allergic to. Did I mention dull?

I can't barely imagine such a lifestyle, let alone write about it. Now, if you want to talk Rye-forward cocktails set to a Motown beat with a swinging mixed crowd in mid-mod homes, I'm there!

Now if you excuse me, my can of Diet Pepsi is getting warm and I still have some Cheez Whiz left in the can and some Ritz crackers that won't eat themselves.

I love me a Pepsi-Cola, although I don't bother with the Diet stuff. Life is too short for that.

But just do me a favor and put the Diet Pepsi in a proper glass with some cracked ice, and place the Ritz crackers on an appetizer plate, and I wouldn't mind joining you! As a hostess gift I'll bring some sharp Tillamook cheddar to slice, instead of the Cheez Whiz.

 

[TP2000]

Data dump for all overseas box office markets came in this afternoon for Wakanda Forever. In addition to the domestic box office during the opening weekend of Avatar.

Result is that Wakanda Forever is now at $775 Million box office globally, for a net Burbank profit of $25 Million.

Wakanda Forever is now in the black, if you'll pardon the pun.

 

[networkpro]

Streaming is the industry go to for addressing two problems:
1. The decline of lucrative cable/satellite revenue
2. Uncertainty in the box office lasting


It makes total sense. But the problem is none of them has any clue if it will be lucrative long term. They’re guessing and hope they’re right

They dont know, that is why watching what Comcast does with Universal is so interesting right now. How long will their cable revenue be sustained to build and maintain Epic Universe?

 

[Phroobar]

Data dump for all overseas box office markets came in this afternoon for Wakanda Forever. In addition to the domestic box office during the opening weekend of Avatar.

Result is that Wakanda Forever is now at $775 Million box office globally, for a net Burbank profit of $25 Million.

Wakanda Forever is now in the black, if you'll pardon the pun.

View attachment 686414

So it pretty much under performed. They made enough back to cover one of Joe Rohde's "ride research" trips.

 

[Disney Irish]

Data dump for all overseas box office markets came in this afternoon for Wakanda Forever. In addition to the domestic box office during the opening weekend of Avatar.

Result is that Wakanda Forever is now at $775 Million box office globally, for a net Burbank profit of $25 Million.

Wakanda Forever is now in the black, if you'll pardon the pun.

View attachment 686414

Actually that is a bit behind. Its now at $787M:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

www.boxofficemojo.com

Its going to probably end up somewhere in a low to mid $800M range when its all said and done. While not blowing the roof off any box office, its done respectable and is considered a win for Marvel/Disney.

 

[TP2000]

They made enough back to cover one of Joe Rohde's "ride research" trips.

Perhaps they could cover a ride research trip. If he limits his spa visits and stays out of the minibar.

 

[Phroobar]

Perhaps they could cover a ride research trip. If he limits his spa visits and stays out of the minibar.

Good luck there. That is one imaginer that always seemed a little stoned to me. See Guardians Tower.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hit $801M this weekend and still climbing.

 

[LSLS]

I do wish we had a way to know how much a movie actually cost beyond the guestimates based on industry standards. Something like this, it felt like they dumped a ton into marketing, and I wonder if the start/stop of filming is factored in. I'd love to know if that is in fact the case (they did do a ton of extra marketing), or if they just spent much smarter and I was in that target audience.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I do wish we had a way to know how much a movie actually cost beyond the guestimates based on industry standards. Something like this, it felt like they dumped a ton into marketing, and I wonder if the start/stop of filming is factored in. I'd love to know if that is in fact the case (they did do a ton of extra marketing), or if they just spent much smarter and I was in that target audience.

I was watching a YouTube video the other day that compared Marvel movies and it was shocking how much the production costs have gone up.

The cost to make them has gone up about $100 million across the board.

$150 million for an older Marvel movie compared to $250 million for a new one seemed about average. That $100 million difference happened over about 5 years.

 

[LSLS]

I was watching a YouTube video the other day that compared Marvel movies and it was shocking how much the production costs have gone up.

The cost to make them has gone up about $100 million across the board.

$150 million for an older Marvel movie compared to $250 million for a new one seemed about average. That $100 million difference happened over about 5 years.

EH, that's a bit cherry picked. Yes, the average for 2022 is $250 million. BUT, that's only 2 releases. The year before was $188 million, which ranks as the 6th cheapest year among the 13 years with releases (assuming the numbers I grabbed were accurate, and they may not be). I think you also need to factor in how some of these movies are COVID produced movies, and that has to increase the cost of production significantly.

Looking at 5 year rolling averages, this year was the most expensive, but the increases aren't nearly as great. 5 year rolling was $171 in 2013, compared to $216 in 2022. When you factor in the start vs. 30 movies in, that's not overly shocking.

I do think they have gone a bit too big budget with some of these films that aren't all-together events, but I'm not sure if it's really ballooned now, or if the Covid changes will bring things back.

 

[Disney Analyst]

You have to remember the Covid safety budget was a huge new cost added to every production.

Any shutdown to production caused by a covid outbreak can add millions.

Then you add that the cost of everything has gone up… I’m not sure if budgets will get lower anytime soon.

 

[Phroobar]

I thought it was interesting that Glass Onion A Knives Out Mystery started the characters wearing masks and gave them a spray as an excuse to remove the masks. I haven't seen that put in a movie.