Al Lutz: Carsland for WDW, FLE not Bringing in Guests

[Lee]

Occupied room counts are up, but due to the introduction of the inventory of rooms at AOAR, the denominator increased which most likely resulted in a drop in occupancy percent. Both can be true, the devil is in the wordsmithing.

That.
More available rooms, many discounted, cloud the issue.

He was wrong about Nemo, and it was the Autopia queue that was in play, not the ride.
Innoventions was indeed going bye-bye, until the recent plan change.

Al wasn't very wrong at all.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Oh c'mon Lee, old chum ... let's face it: the majority of the fan community are like kitties and all you need is to move the laser pointer and they'll chase the light.

WDW's are the worst because they have absolutely no focus on the big picture ... unlike DL's back in the 90s and early 00s that kept their eyes on the prize and made sure their voices were heard and mattered.

If The Disney Parks Blog comes out tomorrow showing a new line of EPCOT retro tees, then they'll forget that NGE even exists . WDW fans largely focus on one small thing that they are attached to (AC anyone? Too close to home? OK ... Horizons? Poly DVC? Imagination? Splash Mountain? Any of the parades/night spectaculars? etc) and they don't see the forest.

Are you saying that they're coming out with more retro Epcot t-shirts?

 

[WildcatDen]

Are you saying that they're coming out with more retro Epcot t-shirts?

w00t w00t. Where does the line form???

 

[ParentsOf4]

Occupied room counts are up, but due to the introduction of the inventory of rooms at AOAR, the denominator increased which most likely resulted in a drop in occupancy percent. Both can be true, the devil is in the wordsmithing.

During the conference call, Iger explicitly stated:

Average per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 4% and occupancy was down four percentage points to 81% primarily due to an increase in available room nights at Walt Disney World given the opening of Disney’s Art of Animation Resort during the second half of fiscal 2012.

Down to 81% with discounts during the popular Food & Wine, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas seasons is rather telling. This despite having a new resort (which usually attracts more guests, not less) and with the opening of the "New" Fantasyland. With nothing new coming online until the opening of SDMT, it doesn't bode well for 2013.

The simple math is if you build more rooms but don't give people reasons to occupy those additional rooms, the occupancy rate will decline.

I've ranted about it before but the "Value Resorts" are expensive now and building an even more expensive "Value Resort" does not encourage new guests. Neither, it appears, does the "New" Fantasyland.

P.S. The good news is WDW should continue to offer discounts for most of 2013.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

That.
More available rooms, many discounted, cloud the issue.

He was wrong about Nemo, and it was the Autopia queue that was in play, not the ride.
Innoventions was indeed going bye-bye, until the recent plan change.

Al wasn't very wrong at all.

Based on Al's column, he seemed to say that there was a lot hand-wringing going on at TDO over declining

But over the Christmas break a fire was lit under a few key Burbank executives when it was realized WDW’s New Fantasyland project wasn’t pulling in the numbers or customer satisfaction ratings that had been hoped for. WDW’s hotel occupancy and spending numbers have been hurting for several years, and they were hoping for a big bump from New Fantasyland and its lone new attraction, a clone of the Little Mermaid omnimover. New Fantasyland hasn’t give them the bump they needed, and the customer satisfaction results are showing that it won’t be driving the new attendance or spending gains that WDW really needs in the next few years. And there’s currently nothing under construction in WDW, while their Universal and Sea World competitors have major new projects coming out of the ground.

If only to prove how quickly things can change in the Disney empire, WDI execs returned from their Christmas break to quickly huddle and then directed their teams to figure out how to clone as much of Cars Land as possible so that it could open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios park as quickly as possible, aiming for a late 2015 debut (nearly three years to the day after New Fantasyland officially opened). TDO execs were also told to stop value-engineering the project into a smaller footprint with fewer offerings and let WDI do their work. And since the James Cameron alliance that was supposed to bring Avatarland to WDW within the same timeframe is going nowhere fast, and may not even show up in a theme park at all at this point, WDI is thrilled to dig in and start real work on an accelerated plan to bring Cars Land to Florida.

When did FLE officially open? Wasn't that sometime around the beginning of December? If the last quarter ended December 29th, then this quarter started around October 1st, well before FLE officially opened, I have a hard time believing that TDO execs would conclude so quickly that FLE is a failure, though he may have a point based on early customer satisfaction ratings.

Also, as the report indicates, there was "increased spending" at both WDW and Disneyland.

Higher operating income at our domestic operations was primarily due to increased guest spending at both Walt Disney World Resort and Disneyland Resort, the addition of the Disney Fantasy cruise ship which launched in March 2012, attendance growth at Disneyland Resort, and higher occupied room nights at Walt Disney World Resort.

Neither Al, nor the financial report, indicates if we are looking at percentages or just absolute numbers, it could be just absolute, or both absolute and percentage . . . if new resorts opened at WDW this last quarter, then I doubt TDO would beat themselves up over this issue as at least absolute room occupancy would be up.

I'm no fan of Mermaid, but think that overall FLE is a needed upgrade to Fantasyland, (though is has so many disparate pieces that it doesn't provide a holistic experience), and I kinda doubt TDO would be freaking out over Christmas given that operating income at the parks went up 4% last quarter, up to $577 million.

 

[Lee]

I don't think anyone is too surprised that FLE didn't bring a flood of new guests. That was never its real purpose.

The rather "blah" satisfaction scores...those they for some reason seem surprised by.

As for resort rooms, AoA came online fully in September, so it was open for the full quarter. It clearly didn't cause too much of an increase in occupancy resort wide.

 

[Next Big Thing]

I don't think anyone is too surprised that FLE didn't bring a flood of new guests. That was never its real purpose.

The rather "blah" satisfaction scores...those they for some reason seem surprised by.

As for resort rooms, AoA came online fully in September, so it was open for the full quarter. It clearly didn't cause too much of an increase in occupancy resort wide.

A lot of the satisfaction score problems I think stem not only from SDMT not being open and LM just being "eh", but the 30 minute waits for lunch at BOG.

As for AoA, with the prices they are charging for what is supposed to be a value resort, i'm not surprised at all.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I'm no fan of Mermaid, but think that overall FLE is a needed upgrade to Fantasyland, (though is has so many disparate pieces that it doesn't provide a holistic experience), and I kinda doubt TDO would be freaking out over Christmas given that operating income at the parks went up 4% last quarter, up to $577 million.

Consider (for example) a 7-day base ticket increased by almost 8% while DDP increased by over 10%. Further consider that spending and attendance is up, way up, at DLR.

WDW revenue growth did not match price increases. It's simple economics. As prices go up, fewer can afford them. WDW prices have exploded under Iger while nothing's been added to draw more people in. Attendance has declined in 2 of the last 3 years. Corporate Disney knows that recent trends are not good for the long-term health of WDW.

 

[DocMcHulk]

I don't think anyone is too surprised that FLE didn't bring a flood of new guests. That was never its real purpose.

The rather "blah" satisfaction scores...those they for some reason seem surprised by.

As for resort rooms, AoA came online fully in September, so it was open for the full quarter. It clearly didn't cause too much of an increase in occupancy resort wide.

Art of Animation is just too darn expensive. Here's a scenario:
You have a family of 5 coming to WDW for one full week (Check in July 13, check out July 20th), and plan on 5 days at the parks

Option 1:

• The Lion King Family Suite would cost you $2458 (yes, you read that right!)
  • 1 Queen Bed, 1 Double-Size Table Bed, and 1 Double-Size Sleeper Sofa. Talk about COMFY!!! (note the sarcasm)
• Free transportation to and from the airport (Disney's Magical Express)
• Free on-property transportation
• Extra Magic Hours (for now)
• You can not leave Disney Property without a Taxi
• Total Cost: $2458

Option 2:

• Stay at Orange Lake Resort for $1315.65
  • Two bedroom villa,1 king size bed, 2 queen size beds, kitchen
  • Orange Lake is located directly next door to the Animal Kingdom and is less than a 20 min drive (mostly on Disney property) from MK parking
• Rent a Ford Escape for from Hertz for $467.07
  • Disney World Parking: $70
  • Mobility around the greater Orlando/Kissimmee area
• Total Cost: $1852.72
• Savings: $605.28
  • five "park-to-park" tickets to Universal is $615

 

[lazyboy97o]

With nothing new coming online until the opening of SDMT, it doesn't bode well for 2013.

Princess Fantasy Faire. That'll bring the crowds...

 

[Next Big Thing]

We've got Starbucks, MM+ and interactive queues...That's what everybody wants, RIGHT???

 

[devoy1701]

Art of Animation is just too darn expensive. Here's a scenario:
You have a family of 5 coming to WDW for one full week (Check in July 13, check out July 20th), and plan on 5 days at the parks

Option 1:

• The Lion King Family Suite would cost you $2458 (yes, you read that right!)
  • 1 Queen Bed, 1 Double-Size Table Bed, and 1 Double-Size Sleeper Sofa. Talk about COMFY!!! (not the sarcasm)
• Free transportation to and from the airport (Disney's Magical Express)
• Free on-property transportation
• Extra Magic Hours (for now)
• You can not leave Disney Property without a Taxi
• Total Cost: $2458

Option 2:

• Stay at Orange Lake Resort for $1315.65
  • Two bedroom villa,1 king size bed, 2 queen size beds, kitchen
  • Orange Lake is located directly next door to the Animal Kingdom and is less than a 20 min drive (mostly on Disney property) from MK parking
• Rent a Ford Escape for from Hertz for $467.07
  • Disney World Parking: $70
• Total Cost: $1852.72
• Savings: $605.28
  • five "park-to-park" tickets to Universal is $615

I think the better comparison would not be staying at the suites verses staying off property, but actually the AoA vs. wherever else a family of 5 can stay on property and be well accomodated...be it 2 rooms at a moderate resort, or a family suite at ASMusic...

Having said that...is $2500 a lot for a family of 5? I'm thinking of trips my wife and I have taken and even our latest reservation for DL and it's running us $1300 for off property and 5-days in the parks. At WDW a room regularly cost us about $99/night at a moderate so about $600 for a 5-day trip with taxes, and roughly $500 for tickets (APs or what have you). So $1100-$1300 for 2 people, or about $500 a person is what we're used to paying.

 

[DocMcHulk]

I think the better comparison would not be staying at the suites verses staying off property, but actually the AoA vs. wherever else a family of 5 can stay on property and be well accomodated...be it 2 rooms at a moderate resort, or a family suite at ASMusic...

Having said that...is $2500 a lot for a family of 5? I'm thinking of trips my wife and I have taken and even our latest reservation for DL and it's running us $1300 for off property and 5-days in the parks. At WDW a room regularly cost us about $99/night at a moderate so about $600 for a 5-day trip with taxes, and roughly $500 for tickets (APs or what have you). So $1100-$1300 for 2 people, or about $500 a person is what we're used to paying.

I'm not trying to say that staying on Property will always be more expensive. I am just using the specific example of AoA and how it is grossly over priced, in my opinion.

Places like Pop Century technically only accommodate 4 people. so, if you have 5 or more in your party, you need 2 rooms. Pop Century would cost $191.41 per room per night!

Pop Century rooms are essentially a standard hotel room. At Orange Lake you can get a two bedroom villa for less. just saying.

 

[RandomPrincess]

So DL had record crowds because of Carsland. Disney's solution is to just copy Carsland and put it in FL. It seems silly why not put in a unique land using Carsland as an example. Then you get people wanting to go to both coasts to experience the unique lands. If they build Carsland in WDW that's taking potential future guests from DLR. Also why would a West Coaster want to go to Carsland in WDW, they already have one. People want to go to the other coast to ride and see the things that aren't in their home park.

 

[devoy1701]

I'm not trying to say that staying on Property will always be more expensive. I am just using the specific example of AoA and how it is grossly over priced, in my opinion.

right. But I think a better example of how AoA is overpriced, is by comparing it to what other offerings are available ON property for the same family of 5. I too think it's overpriced as say 2 rooms at AS Sports, but then some people will say "but you get more amenities like a kitchenette." I'm just wondering what the "apples to apples" comparison is to the Family of 5 On-Property options are.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Stay at Orange Lake Resort for $1315.65.

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom at Orange Lake for half that.

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom suite at Wyndham Bonnet Creek (essentially on WDW property) for under $120/night. WBC is closer to DHS or DTD than, for example, the Grand Floridian.

WDW's "Value Resorts" are really expensive.

All things considered, it's understandable why AOA is not exactly packing them in.

 

[DocMcHulk]

right. But I think a better example of how AoA is overpriced, is by comparing it to what other offerings are available ON property for the same family of 5. I too think it's overpriced as say 2 rooms at AS Sports, but then some people will say "but you get more amenities like a kitchenette." I'm just wondering what the "apples to apples" comparison is to the Family of 5 On-Property options are.

All-Star for the exact same time is $180.96 per room per night, and they only hold 4 people.

 

[DocMcHulk]

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom at Orange Lake for half that.

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom suite at Wyndham Bonnet Creek (essentially on WDW property) for under $120/night. WBC is closer to DHS or DAK than, for example, the Grand Floridian.

WDW's "Value Resorts" are really expensive.

All things considered, it's understandable why AOA is not exactly packing them in.

I am just pulling direct pricing from Orange Lake and Disney's websites.

 

[devoy1701]

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom at Orange Lake for half that.

We've stayed in a 2-bedroom suite at Wyndham Bonnet Creek (essentially on WDW property) for under $120/night. WBC is closer to DHS or DTD than, for example, the Grand Floridian.

WDW's "Value Resorts" are really expensive.

All things considered, it's understandable why AOA is not exactly packing them in.

All of the Bonnet Creek Resorts are truly beautiful. I didn't realize how big the property was until I attending a trade show there back in November. I wish they were able to work out an agreement to get some on-property perks, but regardless, I think our next stay at Disney World will be at a Bonnet Creek Property.

 

[DocMcHulk]

I agree but you are better off shopping around and renting from someone who owns there. The same is true for Wyndham Bonnet Creek, which advertises a price north of $250/night.

I totally agree. My parents have a time share at Orange Lake, which is why I am slightly biased towards the resort. I doubt we'll ever pay "full price" to stay there. And I did look up WBC and you are right, over $230/night