Other thoughts on Nintendo...
I think this land is going to be the most challenging undertaking Universal Creative has ever attempted. This land is gonna be weird. Really really weird. This is like Universal's Avatar. How the heck do you convincingly create floating mountains in a CGI world? Disney tried their hand, and were largely successful. How do you translate a Mario game to the real world? How do you convince people that they are walking in a cartoon world? How do you convince guests that everything they've ever known about reality and every natural law is false? How the heck does this convince people?
Honestly, I don't know how they're going to pull this off. What WDI did when faced with creating the impossible -Pandora- was turn to the real world. They grounded the impossible and otherworldly in reality. That's what made it convincing and real. Can Universal do the same with Nintendo? Will Universal go boldly where they (or anyone) have never gone before?
Super Nintendo World underscores how crappy Toy Story Land is. It's pathetic that Disney is building that land. You don't think kids will be able to tell the difference? Hah.
I'm beginning to think the idea of pitching Nintendo as not a Star Wars Experience competitor makes sense. Nintendo isn't Star Wars. The tone, the gravity of the situations, and audiences are all pretty distinct. I think SWE has more in common with Harry Potter than it does with Nintendo. Nintendo is its own thing. Putting it up against Star Wars Experience will almost undoubtably result in Super Nintendo World getting the short end of the stick. Let it breath.
The jury is still out on how this will translate to Theme Parks...
Well, if construction starts in Orlando later this year after HHN it could still be 2020. Think about how fast Jaws got demolished. USJ is supposedly early 2020 so it's easy to think that it was originally late 2019 when the OU insiders first heard about it. "In time for the 2020 Olympics" could've literally meant anything.
The timelines for Diagon Alley were incredible, but also more unusual for a land of that caliber. My gut feeling with Super Nintendo World is the complexity of this project is going to mind boggling. I'm expecting this to be boundary pushing in a way that even Diagon Alley wasn't. This is not the translation of an existing space with certain artistic norms, but an environment where rules don't really exist. How do you build a convincing Bowser Castle? How do you make a built environment look like a natural environment in a cartoon world? How do you translate something crazy like Mario Cart, to an attraction?
While Diagon Alley's execution is World Class, they weren't really writing a whole new playbook. Nintendo is completely uncharted territory. Convincing Harry Potter had been done (by the same people tasked with building the next one). Convincing Mario is a whole other ball game.
For those reasons, I'm giving them at least 3 years time to crank these lands out. Especially the first one. Maybe I'm being too conservative, but recreating reality as we know it has got to be a challenge. That's roughly in line with Star Wars Experience at Disneyland too.
Could it open in Orlando 2020? Absolutely. Especially if they get going by the end of the year. Is a 2021 timetable within the realm of possibility? I wouldn't rule it out. Especially if Nintendo Orlando brings original attractions and experiences to the table which could drag out the timeline. It's a flip of the coin dictated by project start and construction time. Late 2020 to mid 2021 are my bets for completion in Orlando.
The Orlando United folk's Japan info was fishy as soon as they announced the "in time for 2020 Olympics. It's worth remembering the Olympics are held late in the Summer. If they were planning a 2019 opening, why would Universal Studios Japan use a reference point that would be nearly a year after opening? Just doing math helps too. Nintendo was announced in 2015 right after they got the rights. Give it about 5 years for these super immersive lands and it falls 2020.
They were off. Though as I said, things have been pretty crazy.