A Spirited Valentine ...

[brb1006]

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Meanwhile at Tokyo Disneyland

The Tokyo Disneyland Electrical Parade Dreamlights 2017 renewal will debut tomorrow.

The fact that the other large castle parks that can physically accommodate this parade, MK, DLP, and SHDL, aren't willing or haven't considered forking over the money to clone something of QUALITY like this infuriates me.

 

[GoofGoof]

I had expected the numbers for this summer to be dramatically higher, what with the trio of horrors that plagued the Orlando tourist scene last year. This makes me wonder if negative effects of the summer of 2016 will have a years-long effect on Disney's attendance numbers.

BTW, Touring Plans' stated methodology of estimating park attendance seems wonky at best. Did they make similar estimations in years past, and did they prove accurate by the official TEA numbers?

They did acknowledge that there are no official numbers released and they disclosed the methodology used. As long as they applied the same logic to last year and this year it should be a pretty good indicator. I trust their numbers more than TEA.

 

[brb1006]

The fact that the other large castle parks that can physically accommodate this parade, MK, DLP, and SHDL, aren't willing or haven't considered forking over the money to clone something of QUALITY like this infuriates me.

It looks so beautiful!

 

[Cesar R M]

We got lucky to have that, imo. Have you seen Shanghai's 7DMT ending?

[ending brake zone starts at 2:52]



If you look closely, you can see a screen on the house showing Snow White's silhouette dancing. On the other hand, hey, at least you don't have to crane your neck to see it!

Wow and the animation loop doesnt even last 3 seconds lol.

 

[Cesar R M]

Mystic Manor blows this away, imo.

A video, for those who haven't seen this amazing experience (actual ride starts at 1:24):

Only thing that seems a constant thing on trackless rides that bothers me.. is the huge space they seem to need to "spin" and move around.
The details and constructions props, etc.. all seem way closer on normal track systems, but trackless always need some sort of extra space to prevent the cars from veering away from the center spot.

 

[Cesar R M]

Bunch of Extinct Attractions nods in this new Looney Tunes show clip

omg, love how they repeated so many classic gags! XD

 

[Cesar R M]

DIS hasn't had the best timing, but the stock is still cheap relative to the S&P 500 and the business overall is growing. Even at today's prices, the long term health of the company seems very stable.

The issue I referenced in terms of buying regardless of price is more for companies whose growth prospects are dwindling or even shrinking. IBM buys back a lot of stock and the long term outlook for their company is questionable. Disney is still a clear market leader...IBM is not. I'd be more comfortable with DIS buying stock at all time highs than IBM continuing to buy shares as their price falters.

Cheap is relative, remember that Disney has split their stock a few times after it reaches above 100 USD per share.

They seem to want to balance their per stock price to a certain price.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Cheap is relative, remember that Disney has split their stock a few times after it reaches above 100 USD per share.

They seem to want to balance their per stock price to a certain price.

Common misconception. Stock splits have nothing to do with valuation. You could do a 7:1 split right now and the stock wouldn't be any "cheaper."

The actual dollars a stock costs per share means absolutely nothing. Go look at BRK.A shares.

Valuation is all driven by the earnings multiple which is VERY reasonable at the moment. Or maybe you'd like to buy AMZN at 200 times?

 

[Cesar R M]

Agreed. The innovation and investment in domestic parks, WDW in particular has been horrendous during the Iger era. I think it might b changing but the buyback hasn't slowed either. It just proves that if they want to spend in the parks, it's a separate level from their capital return program. Fewer dollars on buyback doesn't and hasn't meant more park investment.

If they need to shift a few dollars, I certainly wouldn't be opposed to it.

It's just that the dollars for capital return are gigantic. All of Pandora was built for less than $1b yet they spent over $7b on buybacks in 2016. This tells me we are dealing with 2 different beasts. They just need to have a bigger budget at parks, which they can afford without shrinking the buyback. Furthermore, the buyback amount of $30b is already approved and probably already budgeted.

The only positive thing is.. Universal quality hike kicked Disney in the nuts. Their excuse that the park business was mature was rendered moth. Forcing Iger to backtrack in his cut-everything-down-to-rawbones that has been a consistent thing on his tenure.
Leaving huge gaping holes in quality and maintenance. Including things like Napkins and merchandise.

I hate the way WDW has been managed, but Disney is stronger financially than ever and it really can't be argued.

They are more profitable and have new assets to be even more profitable in the future. I'm honestly not sure what you're arguing because the stock (reflection of how well the company is doing) has been phenomenal. The only bump in the road is ESPN and I think they'll get it sorted.

The strength is also relative. It wasn't Iger who grew Dis into the behemoth it is..
Eisner started the monstrous growth by building. Iger just bought out many already established companies.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Meanwhile at Tokyo Disneyland

The Tokyo Disneyland Electrical Parade Dreamlights 2017 renewal will debut tomorrow.

The new stuff reminds me of Paint the Night

 

[Cesar R M]

Common misconception. Stock splits have nothing to do with valuation. You could do a 7:1 split right now and the stock wouldn't be any "cheaper."

The actual dollars a stock costs per share means absolutely nothing. Go look at BRK.A shares.

Valuation is all driven by the earnings multiple which is VERY reasonable at the moment. Or maybe you'd like to buy AMZN at 200 times?

Lets put it simple, if you have 100 shares at 5$ a piece, thats 500 USD in stock.
If the company splits 2:1.
Now you own 200 shares should cost 2.5$ a piece by the end of the split.
Right?

I'm not talking about the value of stock in general (as a whole).
But It seems Dis likes to keep the cost down PER SHARE to make them available.
I'm not an analyst, but theres plenty of sites that mention the Disney splits, which have occurred between 170 USD to 105 USD (all above 100 USD). With many calls of Disney probably leading into another split when it reached above 100 USD a few years ago.

I didn't expect Pandora to drive huge Harry Potter style attendance growth for WDW. Quite frankly the place just can't comfortably hold 30% more people all the time. It would become like Christmas week every day. I think it's pretty much on target for a single digit uptick in total attendance but a larger one (possibly double digit) for AK itself. It was expected that some of the AK growth would come at the expense of the other 3 parks. One thing that surprised me some from the stats presented is that EPCOT took a bigger hit then DHS. I thought DHS would take most of the hit until SW opened and then EPCOT would suffer. I agree that the good that should come out of this for park fans like us is that EPCOT should get some more love. Booze and festivals can't carry steady attendance forever.

What about hotel attendance in hotels? Pretty sure that for WDW, most of the money comes from hotels

 

[Chef Mickey]

Lets put it simple, if you have 100 shares at 5$ a piece, thats 500 USD in stock.
If the company splits 2:1.
Now you own 200 shares should cost 2.5$ a piece by the end of the split.
Right?

I'm not talking about the value of stock in general (as a whole).
But It seems Dis likes to keep the cost down PER SHARE to make them available.
I'm not an analyst, but theres plenty of sites that mention the Disney splits, which have occurred between 170 USD to 105 USD (all above 100 USD). With many calls of Disney probably leading into another split when it reached above 100 USD a few years ago.


What about hotel attendance in hotels? Pretty sure that for WDW, most of the money comes from hotels

DIS trades in the Dow so it's "tradition" that companies actually keep their shares around $30/share. No companies really do that anymore, except maybe GE.

You were bringing in share price, so I just corrected you that valuation has nothing to do with splits or price per share. Splits happen to help with liquidity and optics. As a stock, Disney is cheaper than the average S&P500 stock. DIS stock trades around 16 times next year's earnings and the average S&P trades at around 25X.

DIS is a cheap stock relative to many others, including CMCSA. DIS is $103/share and CMCSA is $38/share, but DIS is the cheaper stock from a valuation perspective (all anyone cares about).

 

[Chef Mickey]

The only positive thing is.. Universal quality hike kicked Disney in the nuts. Their excuse that the park business was mature was rendered moth. Forcing Iger to backtrack in his cut-everything-down-to-rawbones that has been a consistent thing on his tenure.
Leaving huge gaping holes in quality and maintenance. Including things like Napkins and merchandise.


The strength is also relative. It wasn't Iger who grew Dis into the behemoth it is..
Eisner started the monstrous growth by building. Iger just bought out many already established companies.

Eisner >>>>> Iger. You don't have to try to convince me. Iger has been a better CEO for shareholders in the current term, but he's playing catchup now. Ultimately, it's going to work out for Disney, but we've gotten an inferior product in the parks since he took over. Acquisitions are an important part of a CEO's tenure and Iger has done a good job. I still question the Marvel acquisition because it seems too complex and limited. I know DIS can make money on the movies, but the lack of park presence needs to be dealt with and I'm not sure how they do that.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

DIS trades in the Dow so it's "tradition" that companies actually keep their shares around $30/share. No companies really do that anymore, except maybe GE.

You were bringing in share price, so I just corrected you that valuation has nothing to do with splits or price per share. Splits happen to help with liquidity and optics. As a stock, Disney is cheaper than the average S&P500 stock. DIS stock trades around 16 times next year's earnings and the average S&P trades at around 25X.

DIS is a cheap stock relative to many others, including CMCSA. DIS is $103/share and CMCSA is $38/share, but DIS is the cheaper stock from a valuation perspective (all anyone cares about).

Splits are even less meaningful than they used to be thanks to technology. It used to be that investors had to buy shares in a "round lot," which means a minimum of 100 shares at a time. Buying in smaller quantities would result in brokerage fees that were prohibitively expensive. Now, with electronic brokers and other innovations, people can cheaply buy individual shares and even fractional shares.

 

[BlindChow]

Only thing that seems a constant thing on trackless rides that bothers me.. is the huge space they seem to need to "spin" and move around.
The details and constructions props, etc.. all seem way closer on normal track systems, but trackless always need some sort of extra space to prevent the cars from veering away from the center spot.

Some of that space might be appear large due to wide-angle camera lenses... The 100-acre Woods scene at the beginning of Pooh's Hunny Hunt has scenery as close as any in WDW's Pooh ride. (Of course, there are areas with wide-open spaces as well, but it doesn't look like it's mandatory in all cases.)

 

[Chef Mickey]

Splits are even less meaningful than they used to be thanks to technology. It used to be that investors had to buy shares in a "round lot," which means a minimum of 100 shares at a time. Buying in smaller quantities would result in brokerage fees that were prohibitively expensive. Now, with electronic brokers and other innovations, people can cheaply buy individual shares and even fractional shares.

Absolutely. Flat fee pricing and the ease of online brokerages has made this all but dead.

Stocks are manipulated so much these days that I think I'd rather them trade like BRK.A. It's harder to manipulate a stock when it's $256,000/share.

 

[ford91exploder]

I hate the way WDW has been managed, but Disney is stronger financially than ever and it really can't be argued.

They are more profitable and have new assets to be even more profitable in the future. I'm honestly not sure what you're arguing because the stock (reflection of how well the company is doing) has been phenomenal. The only bump in the road is ESPN and I think they'll get it sorted.

A company with 2 months of cash in the bank is not STRONG by any means, its closest competitor in the space has 6 months of cash.

And before you talk about how easy it is to borrow, An event which which would cause the company to draw down cash would also shut down commercial lending.

Stock price != Strength

 

[ford91exploder]

I had expected the numbers for this summer to be dramatically higher, what with the trio of horrors that plagued the Orlando tourist scene last year. This makes me wonder if negative effects of the summer of 2016 will have a years-long effect on Disney's attendance numbers.

BTW, Touring Plans' stated methodology of estimating park attendance seems wonky at best. Did they make similar estimations in years past, and did they prove accurate by the official TEA numbers?

Or perhaps the long rumored tipping point has arrived and the stale dated offerings at WDW coupled with unrealistically high pricing is causing consumers to re evaluate whether a Disney vacation is 'worth it' and consumers are voting with wallets.

Disney is loading my inbox with discounts, uni is sending updates on new attractions and shows

 

[Bairstow]

Or perhaps the long rumored tipping point has arrived and the stale dated offerings at WDW coupled with unrealistically high pricing is causing consumers to re evaluate whether a Disney vacation is 'worth it' and consumers are voting with wallets.

Disney is loading my inbox with discounts, uni is sending updates on new attractions and shows

Pandora has barely been open for two months, and it's already stale and dated compared to Volcano Bay and Jimmy Fallon?