A Spirited Valentine ...

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else so I'll drop it in here. Touring plans did an initial look at the effect Pandora has had on attendance so far. In summary, the short term pop in total WDW attendance between May 27 and June 8 is estimated at 18%. From June 18th to June 29th it's only 4% compared to last year. It looks like Pandora is drawing more people to AK but a lot of that gain is at the expense of the other 3 parks, especially DHS and EPCOT. Here's the full article:
http://blog.touringplans.com/2017/07/05/pandoras-effect-wdw/#more-127388
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
DIS hasn't had the best timing, but the stock is still cheap relative to the S&P 500 and the business overall is growing. Even at today's prices, the long term health of the company seems very stable.

The issue I referenced in terms of buying regardless of price is more for companies whose growth prospects are dwindling or even shrinking. IBM buys back a lot of stock and the long term outlook for their company is questionable. Disney is still a clear market leader...IBM is not. I'd be more comfortable with DIS buying stock at all time highs than IBM continuing to buy shares as their price falters.


Im not sure that 'Market Leader' is a title I would associate with Disney. Especially since Disney has not been able to achieve top line growth in any business unit except for movies. Yes they have achieved profit growth but only by means of cuts and price increases in P&R.

I do agree with your assessment of IBM a business which divested profitable units and underinvested in its core business.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
I think it's a combination of timing and alternative use of funds. As theme park fans we all tend to think there are numerous ways the company could allocate those funds in P&R that would be better for the long run than a stock buyback. Disney is a market leader but in order to stay there they need to reinvest in their business. IMHO they were not investing enough in domestic theme parks over a period of about a decade beginning right around 2001. It seems like there is a new renaissance of spending at WDW that will continue through the 50th. I'm happy to see it, but they have a lot of lean years to make up for so I hope the plans aren't pushed back or cut to free up additional cash for more share buybacks.
Agreed. The innovation and investment in domestic parks, WDW in particular has been horrendous during the Iger era. I think it might b changing but the buyback hasn't slowed either. It just proves that if they want to spend in the parks, it's a separate level from their capital return program. Fewer dollars on buyback doesn't and hasn't meant more park investment.

If they need to shift a few dollars, I certainly wouldn't be opposed to it.

It's just that the dollars for capital return are gigantic. All of Pandora was built for less than $1b yet they spent over $7b on buybacks in 2016. This tells me we are dealing with 2 different beasts. They just need to have a bigger budget at parks, which they can afford without shrinking the buyback. Furthermore, the buyback amount of $30b is already approved and probably already budgeted.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Im not sure that 'Market Leader' is a title I would associate with Disney. Especially since Disney has not been able to achieve top line growth in any business unit except for movies. Yes they have achieved profit growth but only by means of cuts and price increases in P&R.

I do agree with your assessment of IBM a business which divested profitable units and underinvested in its core business.
1) Disney is a market leader, absolutely. Who is ahead?
2) You don't have to grow All lines of business every quarter to be a market leader.
3) I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Disney has grown other businesses lately besides movies. Parks and resorts is still headed upwardfrom a profit and revenue perspective for sure.
4) Just verified: Most recent Q, Overall revenue is higher y/y, $13.3b vs $12.9b. Even media networks was up. Consumer products was down due to Star Wars compare. There is some seasonality, but revenue is up, up, up the last 5 years and really a lot longer.
 

Cesar R M

Well-Known Member
Hey, I'll up that. After a 5 year hiatus I will go back to WDW if they front me an unlimited magic band. Won't actually wear the band but I will graciously accept it. Might even tweet about "the world". Think I have 14 or so followers
You're a perfect full blown Mommy blogger!
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
1) Disney is a market leader, absolutely. Who is ahead?
2) You don't have to grow All lines of business every quarter to be a market leader.
3) I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Disney has grown other businesses lately besides movies. Parks and resorts is still headed upwardfrom a profit and revenue perspective for sure.
4) Just verified: Most recent Q, Overall revenue is higher y/y, $13.3b vs $12.9b. Even media networks was up. Consumer products was down due to Star Wars compare. There is some seasonality, but revenue is up, up, up the last 5 years and really a lot longer.

1) - NBCU has Disney beat as a media company, Hard to argue that DIS has best theme parks tho.
2) - Personally I don't like the growth every quarter model, we should go back to the 'consistent profitablity' model. But the WAY Disney is creating it's current P&R profits is unsustainable
3 - With the exception of the Studios divisions in constant dollars everything else is flat or down
4 - The 400 million 'growth' can be accounted for largely by inflation and of course the Studios success.

Disney over Iger's tenure has become a follower not a leader and the financials show that. The only division to show real growth is the Studios business which incidentally is the only one he has any feeling for.

I also suspect that consumer products is down because of Chappies departure, As bad as he is for the parks he was a GENIUS at marketing to all segments of the retail marketplace and they should have LEFT him there and given him a better title and perks. Once again the fallacy that 'A good manager can manage ANYTHING' rears it's ugly head.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
1) - NBCU has Disney beat as a media company, Hard to argue that DIS has best theme parks tho.
2) - Personally I don't like the growth every quarter model, we should go back to the 'consistent profitablity' model. But the WAY Disney is creating it's current P&R profits is unsustainable
3 - With the exception of the Studios divisions in constant dollars everything else is flat or down
4 - The 400 million 'growth' can be accounted for largely by inflation and of course the Studios success.

Disney over Iger's tenure has become a follower not a leader and the financials show that. The only division to show real growth is the Studios business which incidentally is the only one he has any feeling for.

I also suspect that consumer products is down because of Chappies departure, As bad as he is for the parks he was a GENIUS at marketing to all segments of the retail marketplace and they should have LEFT him there and given him a better title and perks. Once again the fallacy that 'A good manager can manage ANYTHING' rears it's ugly head.
I hate the way WDW has been managed, but Disney is stronger financially than ever and it really can't be argued.

They are more profitable and have new assets to be even more profitable in the future. I'm honestly not sure what you're arguing because the stock (reflection of how well the company is doing) has been phenomenal. The only bump in the road is ESPN and I think they'll get it sorted.
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else so I'll drop it in here. Touring plans did an initial look at the effect Pandora has had on attendance so far. In summary, the short term pop in total WDW attendance between May 27 and June 8 is estimated at 18%. From June 18th to June 29th it's only 4% compared to last year. It looks like Pandora is drawing more people to AK but a lot of that gain is at the expense of the other 3 parks, especially DHS and EPCOT. Here's the full article:
http://blog.touringplans.com/2017/07/05/pandoras-effect-wdw/#more-127388

That could be why this D23 may be so Parks heavy, esp around Epcot. To be honest with SWE incoming, I always kinda expected that Pandora would have a mixed impact on attendance.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
That could be why this D23 may be so Parks heavy, esp around Epcot. To be honest with SWE incoming, I always kinda expected that Pandora would have a mixed impact on attendance.
I didn't expect Pandora to drive huge Harry Potter style attendance growth for WDW. Quite frankly the place just can't comfortably hold 30% more people all the time. It would become like Christmas week every day. I think it's pretty much on target for a single digit uptick in total attendance but a larger one (possibly double digit) for AK itself. It was expected that some of the AK growth would come at the expense of the other 3 parks. One thing that surprised me some from the stats presented is that EPCOT took a bigger hit then DHS. I thought DHS would take most of the hit until SW opened and then EPCOT would suffer. I agree that the good that should come out of this for park fans like us is that EPCOT should get some more love. Booze and festivals can't carry steady attendance forever.
 

brb1006

Well-Known Member
New logo for Disneyland's Fantasmic coming July 17th.
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First look at update
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NearTheEars

Well-Known Member
I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else so I'll drop it in here. Touring plans did an initial look at the effect Pandora has had on attendance so far. In summary, the short term pop in total WDW attendance between May 27 and June 8 is estimated at 18%. From June 18th to June 29th it's only 4% compared to last year. It looks like Pandora is drawing more people to AK but a lot of that gain is at the expense of the other 3 parks, especially DHS and EPCOT. Here's the full article:
http://blog.touringplans.com/2017/07/05/pandoras-effect-wdw/#more-127388

I think that's what most people expected. It may have tipped the scales for some folks in their decision whether to take a trip or not, but for the most part, it's just going to cannibalize the other parks.

Now, when Star Wars opens, there's going to be a lot of non-Disney regulars booking trips.
 

Bairstow

Well-Known Member
I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else so I'll drop it in here. Touring plans did an initial look at the effect Pandora has had on attendance so far. In summary, the short term pop in total WDW attendance between May 27 and June 8 is estimated at 18%. From June 18th to June 29th it's only 4% compared to last year. It looks like Pandora is drawing more people to AK but a lot of that gain is at the expense of the other 3 parks, especially DHS and EPCOT. Here's the full article:
http://blog.touringplans.com/2017/07/05/pandoras-effect-wdw/#more-127388

I had expected the numbers for this summer to be dramatically higher, what with the trio of horrors that plagued the Orlando tourist scene last year. This makes me wonder if negative effects of the summer of 2016 will have a years-long effect on Disney's attendance numbers.

BTW, Touring Plans' stated methodology of estimating park attendance seems wonky at best. Did they make similar estimations in years past, and did they prove accurate by the official TEA numbers?
 

Cesar R M

Well-Known Member
Seems like a very cool dark ride, but it's almost as if the trackless ride system is wasted. They probably could have gotten away with a busbar system for 95% of the ride.
Not to mention most of the animatronics(except Pardeu) seems very simple in movement and faces.

Definitively feels full and artistic thats for sure.. different from what you see in a Disney or Universal park.
 

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
Paper tiger?
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...s-theme-park-business-93-billion-deal-1019589
China's Wanda Retreats From Theme Parks Business With $9.3 Billion Deal
11:53 PM PDT 7/9/2017 by Patrick Brzeski

gettyimages-481013316.jpg

Getty Images

Wang Jianlin

Just last year, the company's billionaire chairman Wang Jianlin boasted that his "wolf pack" of theme parks would drive the Walt Disney Co. out of China.
Dalian Wanda Group, led by Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin, says it has reached a landmark deal to sell its theme parks business to Sunac China for $9.3 billion.

The agreement — which is said to be the second-biggest real estate deal ever in China — signals a major deescalation of Wanda's once mighty ambitions in the theme park sector. Last year, Wang announced plans to build at least 20 major cultural projects including theme parks across the Middle Kingdom. At the time, he boasted that his "wolf pack" of parks would drive the Walt Disney Co.'s "lone tiger" — Shanghai Disneyland — out of China.

Under the terms of the deal with Sunac, Wanda is selling a 91 percent stake in nearly all of its current and planned tourism projects, including three recently launched theme parks, and 72 of its 102 hotels in China.

The deal is believed to be part of Wanda's drive to cut its massive debt load and bolster its case with Beijing regulators for an IPO. The conglomerate pulled its core property unit off of the Hong Kong stock exchange last year, with plans to relist in mainland China, where valuations are among the world's highest.

Wanda said Sunac will take over responsibility for the tourism projects' loans and financing, while Wanda will continue to design, build and manage the resorts under its own brand name.

Wanda did not officially state a reason for the sale, but in an interview with Chinese business outlet Caixin, Wang said the deal would substantially reduce Wanda's debt and move the company closer to the "asset-light" model he has been publicly espousing and pursuing for some time.

"Through this asset transfer, Wanda Commercial's debt ratio will be greatly reduced, all the proceeds will be used to repay loans. Wanda Commercial plans to repay most of the bank loans this year," Wang told Caixin.

Best known in China as a real estate developer, Wanda began building theme parks just a few years ago as part of an aggressive diversification into what it calls the "culture industry," comprising the entertainment, sports and tourism sectors. Believing that the high-growth era for China's real estate sector is in its twilight, Wang has tried to pivot his conglomerate to capitalize on the Chinese government's efforts to transition the country to a consumer-led economy. The move has entailed acquiring domestic and international cinema chains — such as North America's largest, AMC Entertainment — and overseas sports and leisure assets, such as British yacht-maker Sunseeker, the company behind the Iron Man triathlon races, and U.S. movie studio Legendary Entertainment.

The deal with Sunac could be viewed as a tacit admission of how much Wanda has struggled to devise a winning formula in the complex theme parks business. The company's first major attraction, Wanda Movie Park Wuhan, opened in central China in late 2014 and closed within months after early admission numbers plummeted. Wanda said the park was closing temporarily for upgrades, but it has yet to reopen. The company's major theme park development in Nanchang — which Wang talked up on television last year while publicly dismissing Disney's theme park ambitions in China — reported attendance of approximately 1.3 million in its first seven months. Shanghai Disneyland, meanwhile, hit 11 million visitors in its first full year.

Sunac is one of China's largest real estate developers, based in the Eastern Chinese city of Tianjin. The company is led by Sun Hongbin, whose net worth Forbesestimates to be $2 billion. Sunac has become an increasingly visible dealmaker. Earlier this year, it threw a lifeline to Beijing-based LeEco Holdings, investing $2.2 billion in the troubled tech and entertainment company.

Wanda says the $9.3 billion parks deal with Sunac will be finalized in a signed agreement later this month.
 

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