A Spirited Valentine ...

ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
flynnibus said:
I sure hope I'm never in an industry where a 10% change in customer base means the world thinks I'm already dead.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately is it's not a change in customer base it's an accelerating loss of a customer base, Similar to what happened to buggy whip manufacturers. Once the horseless carriage (internet streaming) took over there was no future in that business.
 
FerretAfros

FerretAfros

Well-Known Member
I know we like to rag on WDW for its countless hollow upcharge events, but this time it's DL that's getting in on the fun.
https://disneyland.disney.go.com/dining/disneyland/tomorrowland-skyline-lounge/

Highlights include:
  • Boxed fruit, cheese, and dessert tray (because a cupcake buffet is too much work to set up)
  • Views over DL's ugliest land (presumably from the Innoventions balcony), which is in dire need of thematic upgrades
  • Possible fireworks views, depending whether or not the show gets cancelled due to wind, or if there was even a show scheduled in the first place
That's right, they are selling their fireworks viewing party regardless of whether fireworks are actually scheduled for that day. At least WDW has the decency to tie their upcharge events into headliner entertainment. This one is literally being sold as just a place to eat your boxed dessert

But hey, you can come and go as you please during the 2-hour "event," so at least there's that...
 
ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
FerretAfros said:
I know we like to rag on WDW for its countless hollow upcharge events, but this time it's DL that's getting in on the fun.
https://disneyland.disney.go.com/dining/disneyland/tomorrowland-skyline-lounge/

Highlights include:
  • Boxed fruit, cheese, and dessert tray (because a cupcake buffet is too much work to set up)
  • Views over DL's ugliest land (presumably from the Innoventions balcony), which is in dire need of thematic upgrades
  • Possible fireworks views, depending whether or not the show gets cancelled due to wind, or if there was even a show scheduled in the first place
That's right, they are selling their fireworks viewing party regardless of whether fireworks are actually scheduled for that day. At least WDW has the decency to tie their upcharge events into headliner entertainment. This one is literally being sold as just a place to eat your boxed dessert

But hey, you can come and go as you please during the 2-hour "event," so at least there's that...
Click to expand...

With TDO Veteran Mikey C out there at DL expect more of the same.
 
ParentsOf4

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
I sure hope I'm never in an industry where a 10% change in customer base means the world thinks I'm already dead.
Click to expand...
Just keep in mind that costs are relatively fixed in a lot of industries (e.g. hotels). It's that last 10% or so that represent the majority of operating income.

ESPN's costs don't fluctuate based on the number of subscribers, so that last 10% or so represent a good chunk of the profit.

With the number of subscribers declining and ESPN already committed to some very expensive sports contracts, it's difficult to see how ESPN's business improves until those contracts expire.

The layoffs are largely symbolic and don't address the root cause of ESPN's financial difficulties.
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
ford91exploder said:
Unfortunately is it's not a change in customer base it's an accelerating loss of a customer base, Similar to what happened to buggy whip manufacturers. Once the horseless carriage (internet streaming) took over there was no future in that business.
Click to expand...

That is not the case here. Cable tv is not going away. Networks are not going away.

What is going away is the bundle gravy train. Its a change in how people buy... not that your product is no longer applicable
 
ParentsOf4

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
That is not the case here. Cable tv is not going away. Networks are not going away.

What is going away is the bundle gravy train. Its a change in how people buy... not that your product is no longer applicable
Click to expand...
Yes, but like brick and mortar stores, cable is facing stiff competition from online services.

My college age children rarely watch cable; they and a lot of their friends stream their entertainment.

Cable will continue to exist but it will need to adjust its business model. ESPN paid some incredible prices for sports programming and the market simply doesn't support those prices anymore.

Ultimately I see this impacting universities and professional sports teams, who have gotten used to collecting exorbitant fees for their offerings.
 
Wrangler-Rick

Wrangler-Rick

Just Horsing Around…
Premium Member
FerretAfros said:
I know we like to rag on WDW for its countless hollow upcharge events, but this time it's DL that's getting in on the fun.
https://disneyland.disney.go.com/dining/disneyland/tomorrowland-skyline-lounge/

Highlights include:
  • Boxed fruit, cheese, and dessert tray (because a cupcake buffet is too much work to set up)
  • Views over DL's ugliest land (presumably from the Innoventions balcony), which is in dire need of thematic upgrades
  • Possible fireworks views, depending whether or not the show gets cancelled due to wind, or if there was even a show scheduled in the first place
That's right, they are selling their fireworks viewing party regardless of whether fireworks are actually scheduled for that day. At least WDW has the decency to tie their upcharge events into headliner entertainment. This one is literally being sold as just a place to eat your boxed dessert

But hey, you can come and go as you please during the 2-hour "event," so at least there's that...
Click to expand...
I think that Disney's new motto should be "If you bill it, they will come!"
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
ParentsOf4 said:
Yes, but like brick and mortar stores, cable is facing stiff competition from online services.

My college age children rarely watch cable; they and a lot of their friends stream their entertainment.

Cable will continue to exist but it will need to adjust its business model. ESPN paid some incredible prices for sports programming and the market simply doesn't support those prices anymore.

Ultimately I see this impacting universities and professional sports teams, who have gotten used to collecting exorbitant fees for their offerings.
Click to expand...

I agree it will require shifts... but watching sports will not go away, nor will the production of it.

Like signing a bad lease, or bad contract, it will eventually expire and you will be free of the burden.

Even as the business changes, espn still has assets, experience, and skills that are needed in the matket. They can ultimately resize as needed too.

Analogies to dead industries are just wrong
 
ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
flynnibus said:
I agree it will require shifts... but watching sports will not go away, nor will the production of it.

Like signing a bad lease, or bad contract, it will eventually expire and you will be free of the burden.

Even as the business changes, espn still has assets, experience, and skills that are needed in the matket. They can ultimately resize as needed too.

Analogies to dead industries are just wrong
Click to expand...

Nowhere did I say live sports viewing is going away its been part of western culture since the Grecian city-states and likely before then.

ESPN's business model is indeed a buggy whip equivalent as its based on forcing carriers to make it part of 'basic cable' in exchange for carrying other networks owned by Disney. So the 70-80% of viewers who dont care about it (as documented by multiple studies) which went if you could save $5 on your cable bill would you drop ESPN said YES.

If 70-80% percent of your EXISTING market does not want your product just where does that leave your business. Why yes it leaves it in buggy whip territory.

That also brings up the sports rights bubble which was driven by cable bundling that will be coming to an end and soon.

I doubt we'll get back to the days of when Ted Williams sold insurance in the off season. But sports salaries will probably return to even the star athletes making < 1mil

IF ESPN wants to survive it really needs to renegotiate its existing rights contracts into something sustainable based on its CORE customer base and what they are willing to pay. Which based on other studies is 8-10 dollars per month

Btw there ARE still buggy whip manufacturers out there

Westfield Whip Manufacturing Company no website (big surprise)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westfield_Whip_Manufacturing_Company

And

http://www.drivingessentials.com/Whips.php

Yes Live sports will survive but it will be a much smaller business than it is now I dont expect that stadium tickets will be cheaper because you paying for an experience.
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
ParentsOf4 said:
Just keep in mind that costs are relatively fixed in a lot of industries (e.g. hotels). It's that last 10% or so that represent the majority of operating income.

ESPN's costs don't fluctuate based on the number of subscribers, so that last 10% or so represent a good chunk of the profit.
Click to expand...

But their costs are not rigid... it's just they have some really big pieces that are inflexible. But they are not forever either. Nor does the customer base represent their only source of revenue.

The drop in subscribers is the canary *for change*... not the grim reaper for the business or Sports Broadcasting.

The gravy train is coming to an end where you could have every subscriber float your revenues even if they aren't your customer. That's the change looming the industry must adapt for.

ParentsOf4 said:
With the number of subscribers declining and ESPN already committed to some very expensive sports contracts, it's difficult to see how ESPN's business improves until those contracts expire.
Click to expand...

But it's not like ESPN is some business billions in debt that can't ride out some storm. The cable group still represents more than 1.5 billion in income per quarter.

It's making noise because ESPN was this money printing machine... and now that business's outlook for money of the same kind is cloudy. It's noise about the golden goose putting out LESS... not that the entire business is dead. The stock market is so figity about it because all they care about is future GROWTH, not actual health or making money quarter to quarter.

Disney's cable business is still nearly 4 BILLION dollars A QUARTER.

Sports TV is not going away - it will change - and maybe TWDC can't rely on the cash cow to float the quarter.. but it's not some dead industry.
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
ford91exploder said:
Nowhere did I say live sports viewing is going away its been part of western culture since the Grecian city-states and likely before then.

ESPN's business model is indeed a buggy whip equivalent as its based on forcing carriers to make it part of 'basic cable' in exchange for carrying other networks owned by Disney. So the 70-80% of viewers who dont care about it (as documented by multiple studies) which went if you could save $5 on your cable bill would you drop ESPN said YES.

If 70-80% percent of your EXISTING market does not want your product just where does that leave your business. Why yes it leaves it in buggy whip territory.
Click to expand...

No it doesn't. It means you don't get to collect from people who weren't really your customers anyways. The end of bundling has zero parallels to technology shifts ending previously dominate industries.

The end of bundling means the end of inflated revenues... and hence impacting the amount of money in the system.. not that the industry is being passed over or dead.
 
jakeman

jakeman

Well-Known Member
ford91exploder said:
Nowhere did I say live sports viewing is going away its been part of western culture since the Grecian city-states and likely before then.

ESPN's business model is indeed a buggy whip equivalent as its based on forcing carriers to make it part of 'basic cable' in exchange for carrying other networks owned by Disney. So the 70-80% of viewers who dont care about it (as documented by multiple studies) which went if you could save $5 on your cable bill would you drop ESPN said YES.

If 70-80% percent of your EXISTING market does not want your product just where does that leave your business. Why yes it leaves it in buggy whip territory.

That also brings up the sports rights bubble which was driven by cable bundling that will be coming to an end and soon.

I doubt we'll get back to the days of when Ted Williams sold insurance in the off season. But sports salaries will probably return to even the star athletes making < 1mil

IF ESPN wants to survive it really needs to renegotiate its existing rights contracts into something sustainable based on its CORE customer base and what they are willing to pay. Which based on other studies is 8-10 dollars per month

Btw there ARE still buggy whip manufacturers out there

Westfield Whip Manufacturing Company no website (big surprise)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westfield_Whip_Manufacturing_Company

And

http://www.drivingessentials.com/Whips.php

Yes Live sports will survive but it will be a much smaller business than it is now I dont expect that stadium tickets will be cheaper because you paying for an experience.
Click to expand...
Or...and follow me here...you have a documented hatred of both sports and the management of TWDC, so this is just creating the perfect storm for you to pontificate endless with literally the same talking points. Everyone one of your post reference on the same handful of items:
  • ESPN overpaid, in your opinion, for broadcast rights (THEY DIDN'T EVEN GET A SUPERBOWL!)
  • ESPN is losing subscribers monthly. Depending on how much coffee you've had it's anywhere between 200k and 600k
  • ESPN could be drop from 70-80% of cable packages (which you repeatedly gleefully report that the Weather Channel is more popular, despite the fact that everyone is affect by weather not so much by sports.)
  • ESPN will be bankrupt or sold off in x amount of time (x being a variable that is constantly changing) and, if you're feeling really plucky, will also take down all of TWDC
Live sports isn't going to be a "much smaller business". The only person who would think that is someone, like you, that has an overwhelming disdain for sports.

Sport is definitely becoming more specialized. ESPN isn't a one stop shop for sports any more. I don't watch ESPN for MLB. I watch the MLB Network. You know when I do watch ESPN? When they are showing an MLB game. ESPN needs to get back to live sports and less talking heads.

You are just making the same points over and over, literally for years. You might be right in some aspects because the landscape is changing and Disney doesn't have a good track record with IT, but considering how wrong you are almost all the time with everything else you post, I think the majority of us will just wait and see and not need a paper bag to breathe into whenever ESPN news is announced.
 
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