A Spirited Perfect Ten

[ford91exploder]

They've had some amazingly successful projects, some amazingly unsuccessful projects (like why they changed their name) , and everything in-between. Same for all of the big guns in that space - EDS, InfoSys, etc.

At the base level, it's still a Buyer/Seller relationship. They're selling man hours/man days, and man years - bodies, along with some methodology. The buyer is looking for expertise.

But there are so many ways a well defined project can be doomed from the start - on both sides and at all levels. I've seen large, well-defined projects doomed from the start where everything is set up perfectly, then a C-level decides it's "too expensive", so 30% or more of design time, or testing, or project mgt, is cut out during negotiations.

Then there's the quality of the Team. They have thousands of consultants they can bring to the table. But, like all corporations, there are a few hundred that are truly the super stars, the architects. So, projects can be affected by what other projects they have ongoing.

Think of it like hiring the best, and largest paint company in your town to paint your house. It's a 3 grand project. If that same company has a 50 grand project to paint the new Lowe's Hardware, and another 60 grand contract with the State happening at the same time--- guess where all of their master painters are going to be working? But, they're still not turning your project down.....

Frequently and especially on government jobs the superstars sell the job and do the first couple of weeks of work then to be replaced by fresh out of college kids billed at the same rate. And let the fail roll from that point. Because jobs that need to be done by grizzled veterans are done by those who the ink has not dried on their diplomas.

 

[Darth Sidious]

They've had some amazingly successful projects, some amazingly unsuccessful projects (like why they changed their name) , and everything in-between. Same for all of the big guns in that space - EDS, InfoSys, etc.

At the base level, it's still a Buyer/Seller relationship. They're selling man hours/man days, and man years - bodies, along with some methodology. The buyer is looking for expertise.

But there are so many ways a well defined project can be doomed from the start - on both sides and at all levels. I've seen large, well-defined projects doomed from the start where everything is set up perfectly, then a C-level decides it's "too expensive", so 30% or more of design time, or testing, or project mgt, is cut out during negotiations.

Then there's the quality of the Team. They have thousands of consultants they can bring to the table. But, like all corporations, there are a few hundred that are truly the super stars, the architects. So, projects can be affected by what other projects they have ongoing.

Think of it like hiring the best, and largest paint company in your town to paint your house. It's a 3 grand project. If that same company has a 50 grand project to paint the new Lowe's Hardware, and another 60 grand contract with the State happening at the same time--- can you guess where all of their master painters are going to be working? But, they're still not turning your project down.....

I agree, but we have had two failing projects with them in the past two years. The firm I work for is one of the largest in the world so we aren't exactly the house painting job as you said above haha. In the end its not easy to come into a project as a consultant and just hit the ground running. I suppose the main point of my post was to say that through experience I can see how things like this can easily get delayed and have cost overruns. With something like MyMagic+ they invested so much to start there was no turning back once costs started mounting.

 

[clsteve]

I agree, but we have had two failing projects with them in the past two years. The firm I work for is one of the largest in the world so we aren't exactly the house painting job as you said above haha. In the end its not easy to come into a project as a consultant and just hit the ground running. I suppose the main point of my post was to say that through experience I can see how things like this can easily get delayed and have cost overruns. With something like MyMagic+ they invested so much to start there was no turning back once costs started mounting.

Absolutely and I agree 100%.

And when a corporation like Disney isn't that sophisticated to start (not saying they were bad, just not sophisticated), it's even tougher.

Much of that can stem from the very top. One of the things that has concerned me for awhile about Disney is how they seem to think the execs and C-levels are interchangeable, that any of them can do any job. Want to run P&R? No problem, move on over from Merchandising. Musical chairs with the same folks. No fresh blood with outside experience.

When you plan to move into the Information Technology big leagues with a NextGen, bring some heavy hitters into the Exec club with outside experience with these types of huge and complex Projects -experience in partnerships with the big players. Then trust them when they say what can and can't be done, how long it really takes and how much it really costs and what the risks truly are.

It might not stop the Project from going south. But, at least you're going into it with understanding and eyes wide open, and with experience on how to get it back on track.

 

[71jason]

To clarify, super-obsessed fans of My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic = bad/subject to ridicule.

Super-obsessed fans of Star Wars: The Clone Wars willing to stand in line hours for an autograph from or a discussion panel with voice actors from that show = good/normal, mentally well-adjusted fan base.

ETA: I think anyone who wants to wear a costume outside of Halloween or a paid gig is crazier than either of the above. But I know plenty of cos-players, including not one but two guys who spend their waking lives dressed as Jack Sparrow. I confess, tho, I've never met an actual Brony, still not convinced the whole phenomenon isn't just an elaborate 4Chan hoax.

 

[Tigger1988]

To clarify, super-obsessed fans of My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic = bad/subject to ridicule.

Super-obsessed fans of Star Wars: The Clone Wars willing to stand in line hours for an autograph from or a discussion panel with voice actors from that show = good/normal, mentally well-adjusted fan base.

ETA: I think anyone who wants to wear a costume outside of Halloween or a paid gig is crazier than either of the above. But I know plenty of cos-players, including not one but two guys who spend their waking lives dressed as Jack Sparrow. I confess, tho, I've never met an actual Brony, still not convinced the whole phenomenon isn't just an elaborate 4Chan hoax.

Do the Clone Wars fans have ~relations~ with their action figures? Because Bronys are known to.

Let's not try to make this something it isn't, there's a reason Bronys are ridiculed.

 

[sedati]

Is there some kind of cash prize given to who can cram the word fanbois in their posts most frequently?

 

[flynnibus]

The reason it's not shut down is that the companies don't take a cut of the money paid in. They pay out virtually everything that's paid in. They make their money from selling advertising on the site. Gambling is only illegal if the organizer takes a cut. Thats the loophole. That's why a March madness pool or those superbowl grids run in your office are technically not illegal. You are however required to claim gambling winnings on your tax return if you win one of those pools.

It's more because it was determined to be a game of skill - the idea you are playing 'manager' and the dynamic outcomes impact everyone the same. The skill portion (the manager role) is deemed to be the dominent portion. Fantasy sports operating within specific constraints were excluded from the last federal online gambling rules.

A few of these elements in how they operate which are highlighted here
https://www.fanduel.com/legal

They don't operate on the idea of paying out all fees (you are thinking about card gambling rules - the 'house doesn't take a cut' exemption that normally allows home poker games, etc). A key delta these sites use is they are using fixed payouts and not a pot from all the players. Then they play the numbers about trying to get enough buy-ins to make their payouts work for them as a business.

Forbes cites Fanduel as getting on average 9% of the payout - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...el-is-turning-fantasy-sports-into-real-money/

 

[flynnibus]

If the company does not take a cut then how do they stay in business, One generally tries to have more at the end of the month than the beginning for the uninitiated it's called a PROFIT.

It's called 'offer a pot of X dollars, collect Y>X entree fees and commission'

 

[GoofGoof]

It's more because it was determined to be a game of skill - the idea you are playing 'manager' and the dynamic outcomes impact everyone the same. The skill portion (the manager role) is deemed to be the dominent portion. Fantasy sports operating within specific constraints were excluded from the last federal online gambling rules.

A few of these elements in how they operate which are highlighted here
https://www.fanduel.com/legal

They don't operate on the idea of paying out all fees (you are thinking about card gambling rules - the 'house doesn't take a cut' exemption that normally allows home poker games, etc). A key delta these sites use is they are using fixed payouts and not a pot from all the players. Then they play the numbers about trying to get enough buy-ins to make their payouts work for them as a business.

Forbes cites Fanduel as getting on average 9% of the payout - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...el-is-turning-fantasy-sports-into-real-money/

That makes sense. They just don't take a fixed % of the pot like an old school bookie would.

 

[RSoxNo1]

They definitely could. They bought about a 20% share of the company. The Draftkings vs Fanduel competition reminds me a lot of the Sirius vs XM radio thing back in the day. Right now these guys are both spending way more on advertising then they are pulling in, but it's a push for market share. Ironically NBCSports owns a small share of Fanduel.

I do actually think it's a pretty good fit with ESPNs season long fantasy sports content. I would expect to see a lot more articles and advice on setting daily lineups. It's pretty complimentary to their current business since most people who do daily fantasy sports are/were already playing in season long leagues. I think maybe Disney is taking a bit of a conservative, wait and see approach instead of buying the whole thing. They have been burned a little in the past on buying things they really don't understand.

I'm pretty sure Draft Kings advertises on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball podcast.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm pretty sure Draft Kings advertises on ESPN's Fantasy Baseball podcast.

And on ESPN.

 

[WDWFigment]

Spirited Good Friday (aren't they all supposed to be?) Musings:

...

Oh, I also hear that two-hour-plus waits for the new Jungle Cruise at TDL are the norm unless you get there at opening. Has @WDWFigment experienced this yet? (can't recall)

...

Oh, hey, what's this? Email from Disney AP HQ ... I can book the A$$ this summer for the low-low rate of $107 a night plus tax. Amazing. A decade ago I was paying roughly that to stay at WL and DAK Lodge. Now, please tell me how Disney's business model isn't going to come crashing down on the next CEO.

To the folks getting all excited because Disney installed two tiny fountains in the new Hub, that apparently haven't ceased working yet, I'd remind y'all of the roughly dozen (maybe more ... likely more) in Adventureland that were shut down about 15 years ago to save on money and maintenance (HINT: if it has the word 'Fuente' in it, that's a fountain, not a garbage and potted plant holder).

Yeah, we did it when we had Happy 15 at Tokyo Disneyland Hotel, and ran there right when it opened. For the nighttime version, we jumped in line 30 minutes before park closing (keeping in mind they cut lines there). Two hour waits sound about right. The queue can wind all the way through Adventureland now.

Overall, I thought the ride was nicely plussed with the projection mapping and other effects, and I think it was definitely a solid implementation of the technology, but I don't think it's as much of an improvement as the huge wait time increases suggest. Honestly, I was expecting a bit more. The nighttime version is slightly better, but it's mostly differences in lighting, and not two dramatically different attractions.

I'm not saying $107/night at the All Stars is a good deal. It's not. However, haven't hotel rates risen across the board in the last decade in the US? I know when I look at Hotwire/Priceline/etc. now when planning trips versus when I looked in 2010 or so, rates are noticeably higher just about everywhere. This is no way in defense of WDW's pricing strategy, just that I don't think 2005 is a good indicator of what prices "should" be now.

Combining the two subjects...Japan presents a real travel value right now. Falling airfare and $1:120 yen make it really attractive. I'm sure I'll take flak for suggesting that, and it certainly won't work for those of you with 6 kids who are used to driving to WDW, but for some travelers who would fly and stay on-site, it could be around the same price or even cheaper than a WDW trip. Really worth crunching the numbers...

I haven't seen the new hub in person yet, so I can't speak to that, but Caribbean Plaza is so sad now. It would be great to really see that area improved, parts of it reopened, and the water features turned back on. There's so much there that goes unnoticed now because of the way areas of the land have been reconfigured (for lack of a better term).

 

[Travel Junkie]

Japan presents a real travel value right now. Falling airfare and $1:120 yen make it really attractive. I'm sure I'll take flak for suggesting that, and it certainly won't work for those of you with 6 kids who are used to driving to WDW, but for some travelers who would fly and stay on-site, it could be around the same price or even cheaper than a WDW trip. Really worth crunching the numbers..

There are some really great airfare deals to Tokyo right now.

The Euro is dropping so Europe is a good value as well. Between the really good exchange rates and DLR’s 60th, this is the year to take a break from WDW.

 

[Cesar R M]

To clarify, super-obsessed fans of My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic = bad/subject to ridicule.

Super-obsessed fans of Star Wars: The Clone Wars willing to stand in line hours for an autograph from or a discussion panel with voice actors from that show = good/normal, mentally well-adjusted fan base.

ETA: I think anyone who wants to wear a costume outside of Halloween or a paid gig is crazier than either of the above. But I know plenty of cos-players, including not one but two guys who spend their waking lives dressed as Jack Sparrow. I confess, tho, I've never met an actual Brony, still not convinced the whole phenomenon isn't just an elaborate 4Chan hoax.

be thankful you havent.

 

[Nick Pappagiorgio]

Combining the two subjects...Japan presents a real travel value right now. Falling airfare and $1:120 yen make it really attractive. I'm sure I'll take flak for suggesting that, and it certainly won't work for those of you with 6 kids who are used to driving to WDW, but for some travelers who would fly and stay on-site, it could be around the same price or even cheaper than a WDW trip. Really worth crunching the numbers...

I can never get over how cheap tickets are in Japan. $175 for a 4 day last I checked.

 

[Cesar R M]

Is there some kind of cash prize given to who can cram the word fanbois in their posts most frequently?

I didnt get the memo.

what is the price?

 

[Goofyernmost]

To clarify, super-obsessed fans of My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic = bad/subject to ridicule.

Super-obsessed fans of Star Wars: The Clone Wars willing to stand in line hours for an autograph from or a discussion panel with voice actors from that show = good/normal, mentally well-adjusted fan base.

ETA: I think anyone who wants to wear a costume outside of Halloween or a paid gig is crazier than either of the above. But I know plenty of cos-players, including not one but two guys who spend their waking lives dressed as Jack Sparrow. I confess, tho, I've never met an actual Brony, still not convinced the whole phenomenon isn't just an elaborate 4Chan hoax.

I've never actually met a "brony" personally, but, a couple of years back there was a "Brony" convention here in Raleigh. They had a news story on it where they panned the audience. I have never seen a group of people that so radiated strange then they did. The bad thing about it was that they all looked so damn sad. In spite of having this obsession, they appeared to be just one small step above doing themselves in. However, that is just the image that I saw on the TV. Sure didn't want to make me join the group though. Maybe they just are sad people looking for something to fill an otherwise empty life. In which case, if they aren't hurting anyone else, I don't see the problem. I just don't want to be part of it, ever!

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Now that we have that Brony discussion out of our system, let's turn to the ever relevant issue of Disney in China. Earlier this evening, The New Yorker published a thorough profile on Chinese President Xi Xinping. While the piece doesn't touch directly on Shanghai Disneyland, it does offer valuable insight into Xi's worldview and what he wants to accomplish with his cultural policies; a key attribute of which is to curtail the influence of foreign media. A very worthwhile read.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/06/born-red

 

[Phil12]

Now that we have that Brony discussion out of our system, let's turn to the ever relevant issue of Disney in China. Earlier this evening, The New Yorker published a thorough profile on Chinese President Xi Xinping. While the piece doesn't touch directly on Shanghai Disneyland, it does offer valuable insight into Xi's worldview and what he wants to accomplish with his cultural policies; a key attribute of which is to curtail the influence of foreign media. A very worthwhile read.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/06/born-red

That article answers the burning question as to why high ranking Disney officials have not had their photos taken at Shanghai Disneyland.

 

[ford91exploder]

Absolutely and I agree 100%.

And when a corporation like Disney isn't that sophisticated to start (not saying they were bad, just not sophisticated), it's even tougher.

Much of that can stem from the very top. One of the things that has concerned me for awhile about Disney is how they seem to think the execs and C-levels are interchangeable, that any of them can do any job. Want to run P&R? No problem, move on over from Merchandising. Musical chairs with the same folks. No fresh blood with outside experience.

When you plan to move into the Information Technology big leagues with a NextGen, bring some heavy hitters into the Exec club with outside experience with these types of huge and complex Projects -experience in partnerships with the big players. Then trust them when they say what can and can't be done, how long it really takes and how much it really costs and what the risks truly are.

It might not stop the Project from going south. But, at least you're going into it with understanding and eyes wide open, and with experience on how to get it back on track.

The course of action you suggest happens far too infrequently with the predictable results.