A Spirited Perfect Ten

[ford91exploder]

Now that we have that Brony discussion out of our system, let's turn to the ever relevant issue of Disney in China. Earlier this evening, The New Yorker published a thorough profile on Chinese President Xi Xinping. While the piece doesn't touch directly on Shanghai Disneyland, it does offer valuable insight into Xi's worldview and what he wants to accomplish with his cultural policies; a key attribute of which is to curtail the influence of foreign media. A very worthwhile read.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/06/born-red

And this is a GOOD environment for a company like Disney, In which alternate universe is this even remotely a good deal????

 

[ford91exploder]

It's more because it was determined to be a game of skill - the idea you are playing 'manager' and the dynamic outcomes impact everyone the same. The skill portion (the manager role) is deemed to be the dominent portion. Fantasy sports operating within specific constraints were excluded from the last federal online gambling rules.

A few of these elements in how they operate which are highlighted here
https://www.fanduel.com/legal

They don't operate on the idea of paying out all fees (you are thinking about card gambling rules - the 'house doesn't take a cut' exemption that normally allows home poker games, etc). A key delta these sites use is they are using fixed payouts and not a pot from all the players. Then they play the numbers about trying to get enough buy-ins to make their payouts work for them as a business.

Forbes cites Fanduel as getting on average 9% of the payout - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...el-is-turning-fantasy-sports-into-real-money/

Based on Forbes article it sounds like Vigorish to me, Hopefully the online gambling laws are updated to include this latest form. Because the so called skill portion still relies upon random chance not the individual efforts of the player.

If it were an online math tournament I'd tend to agree with skill portion because you either have the skill to solve the equation or you don't. Here it's based games in the real world over which the player has no control.

 

[ford91exploder]

be thankful you havent.

I'd say fall upon your knees and pray to your deity that you have not, those guys are sick.

 

[ford91exploder]

It's more because it was determined to be a game of skill - the idea you are playing 'manager' and the dynamic outcomes impact everyone the same. The skill portion (the manager role) is deemed to be the dominent portion. Fantasy sports operating within specific constraints were excluded from the last federal online gambling rules.

A few of these elements in how they operate which are highlighted here
https://www.fanduel.com/legal

They don't operate on the idea of paying out all fees (you are thinking about card gambling rules - the 'house doesn't take a cut' exemption that normally allows home poker games, etc). A key delta these sites use is they are using fixed payouts and not a pot from all the players. Then they play the numbers about trying to get enough buy-ins to make their payouts work for them as a business.

Forbes cites Fanduel as getting on average 9% of the payout - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...el-is-turning-fantasy-sports-into-real-money/

Quote from Forbes Article

To prevent algorithm-crunching fantasy sharks from devouring the minnows, Eccles caps the number of contests a player can enter. This steers the pros to the $1,000 games while leaving the casual $5 contests to us amateurs.

Sounds like high stakes gambling to me, With a bit of careful lawyering to comply with the letter of the 2006 internet gambling law.

 

[Nubs70]

And this is a GOOD environment for a company like Disney, In which alternate universe is this even remotely a good deal????

The opportunity to gain access to a huge market at the expense of diluting the BRAND to satisfy the political and cultural demands of the host country.

Edited for adherence to proper capitalization conventions

 

[gmajew]

The opportunity to gain access to a huge market at the expense of diluting the brand to satisfy the political and cultural demands of the host country.

No this is not a good environment for Disney just like it is not a good environment for Apple, or Ford, or any other American business. China is an infringement heaven, crappy work conditions and just a bad situation.

It is the the largest untapped market in world economics that is ready to explode. Why every business is willing to take a chance and enter the market. Some are going to be extremely successful some are going to struggle and get taken for a ride.

As a business gamble though this is not a huge risk for Disney. So I am sure they are willing to take the chance and if it hits it will be big.

If not they struggle like they did in Euro and ride it out until it can finally turn the corner.

 

[ford91exploder]

No this is not a good environment for Disney just like it is not a good environment for Apple, or Ford, or any other American business. China is an infringement heaven, crappy work conditions and just a bad situation.

It is the the largest untapped market in world economics that is ready to explode. Why every business is willing to take a chance and enter the market. Some are going to be extremely successful some are going to struggle and get taken for a ride.

As a business gamble though this is not a huge risk for Disney. So I am sure they are willing to take the chance and if it hits it will be big.

If not they struggle like they did in Euro and ride it out until it can finally turn the corner.

China is a bomb ready to explode, The CCP is trying to hold it all together it's also why China is so belligerent to it's neighbors a war with Taiwan or Japan would be just the thing to unite the people against an outside threat. China will get a war sooner than later unfortunately if they continue down their current path.

 

[ford91exploder]

The opportunity to gain access to a huge market at the expense of diluting the brand to satisfy the political and cultural demands of the host country.

They will come home begging to Uncle Sugar with their tail between their legs after the CCP takes what it wants, China (The CCP) wants foreign technology and investment NOT foreign ideas.

Individual chinese admire the west and it's freedoms unfortunately they have no weight in government at the moment.

It's why Bo Xilai was crucified by the CCP for daring to voice what the people wanted. The CCP is dominated by old men who value power above all.

 

[flynnibus]

Based on Forbes article it sounds like Vigorish to me, Hopefully the online gambling laws are updated to include this latest form. Because the so called skill portion still relies upon random chance not the individual efforts of the player.

Except the online gambling laws explicitly created this space - it's not a loophole

 

[ford91exploder]

Except the online gambling laws explicitly created this space - it's not a loophole

Disagree - when the law was written fantasy sports was about fan run sites supported by banner ads but money did not change hands for the most part but since the owners of the site(s) made money from the outcomes of games via advertising revenues - the drafters sought to prevent overzealous prosecutors from going after the fantasy leagues which at the time was a hobby for sports statisticians.

Fast forward to today you have games with kilobuck "buy in's" with a huge pot for the winners and now it's explicitly gambling on these big sites and needs to be

A) shut down like the rest of onlne gaming already is
B) the laws rewritten so Blackjack and Poker and 'Fantasy Sports' are legalized and regulated by the appropriate gaming commissions.

Personally I'm a less regulations type of guy so I favor option B.

 

[flynnibus]

Disagree - when the law was written fantasy sports was about fan run sites supported by banner ads but money did not change hands for the most part but since the owners of the site(s) made money from the outcomes of games via advertising revenues - the drafters sought to prevent overzealous prosecutors from going after the fantasy leagues which at the time was a hobby for sports statisticians.

BS - the law explicitly calls out the conditions they can operate under including PAYOUTS. It was known at the time when the exemptions were written that this would include buy-ins and payouts... hence why it defines the baseline rules for doing it!

It basically is ran like an insurance model... lure people with big outcomes but get people to pay in more than you payout.

 

[fosse76]

That's not the problem. The problem is acting like they own the place and posing with guests like they're part of the show. It's inappropriate.

See other posts in this thread about the behavior of off duty CMs, especially CPs. It's a big problem.

I once was working a performance of The Phantom of the Opera on Broadway, and a woman in her twenties was dressed like the phantom, and started posing with other audience members for photos. I just couldn't believe it (and I'm told she hasn't been the only one; one person had even legally changed her name to Chritine Daae, the story's heroine). I've seen it at other shows too (Wicked's fans are the worst offenders).

 

[Omnispace]

Now that we have that Brony discussion out of our system, let's turn to the ever relevant issue of Disney in China. Earlier this evening, The New Yorker published a thorough profile on Chinese President Xi Xinping. While the piece doesn't touch directly on Shanghai Disneyland, it does offer valuable insight into Xi's worldview and what he wants to accomplish with his cultural policies; a key attribute of which is to curtail the influence of foreign media. A very worthwhile read.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/06/born-red

That is a fascinating article. Disney must be tearing their hair out, having their BRAND machine derailed by China's push to limit Western influences. The Shanghai park might end up being a Disney park that is strangely detached from it's core collection of IP's, but on the other hand it might be refreshing. It could just be that in Shanghai, Disney's unique method of experiential storytelling will once again prevail over branding and marketing synergy that has escalated over this past decade or so.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disagree - when the law was written fantasy sports was about fan run sites supported by banner ads but money did not change hands for the most part but since the owners of the site(s) made money from the outcomes of games via advertising revenues - the drafters sought to prevent overzealous prosecutors from going after the fantasy leagues which at the time was a hobby for sports statisticians.

Fast forward to today you have games with kilobuck "buy in's" with a huge pot for the winners and now it's explicitly gambling on these big sites and needs to be

A) shut down like the rest of onlne gaming already is
B) the laws rewritten so Blackjack and Poker and 'Fantasy Sports' are legalized and regulated by the appropriate gaming commissions.

Personally I'm a less regulations type of guy so I favor option B.

I think there is always going to be a risk that the law could change. However, now that this cat is out of the bag it won't be easy to put it back. Fantasy sports in general are very popular. If you make daily fantasy sports illegal then you would pretty much have to also make season long leagues illegal. I'm not sure there would be enough of a political push to do that.

Bringing this all back to Disney: It would obviously be quite hypocritical for Disney to come out against gambling on "moral grounds" to prevent a casino in their backyard in Florida but then buy a stake in what essentially is an online gaming company. It should be pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that their moral objection is really just a good business excuse to prevent competition from a casino development (particularly in their convention and nightlife areas). I see it more as typical political positioning to get a better result for their business as opposed to protecting family values. Although they would probably prefer it if their barely above minimum wage CMs didn't have access to a casino to blow what little disposable income they have left.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

Absolutely brilliant move by Disney investing in fantasy sports. Draft Kings and Fanduel are going to be absolutely huge profit makers for those willing to invest because the fantasy sports world is still in its infancy. Personally, I can see Disney being interested in how these sites work and just making their own banded around ESPN, which of course would put Draft Kings and Fanduel out of business.

Its brilliant.

 

[WDW1974]

Today's Spirited Dispatch From China:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/06/b...0150406&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58490726&_r=0

(what still no Iger or Mickey pic at SDL? I am soooooo shocked!)

 

[TalkingHead]

I find it amusing how much time ESPN's talking heads spend talking about Vegas and betting lines. I don't have any interest in it, but that goes along with much of the hype and drama ESPN thrives on.

Since ESPN is fair game in this thread, I'm surprised no one's commented on the new ESPN website, which is badly designed IMO. The mobile site really hasn't been good on my phone. Scores are a pain to pull up. Comments don't load automatically. I ditched CNN mobile site after its last update, and I'm tempted to ditch ESPN now.

Just another feather in the Disney technology cap.

 

[WDW1974]

Some of NextGen was most definitely capital expenditure and falls under a depreciation schedule. That even includes some of the development.

But, when we decompose NextGen, very little of the "nuts and bolts" were groundbreaking or cutting edge. MB's, RFID, the underlying infrastructure (including servers, network, etc.) all are pretty much basic blocking and tackling, and all have been done before and are in production in much larger and more real time environments than Disney hosts.

As a matter of fact, Disney isn't really in the big leagues when it comes to data size, throughput, complexity, criticality or timeliness - quite the opposite. If the Exxon/Mobils, Walmarts, Dow Jones, and Amazons are at the "PhD level", Disney would be somewhere in 8th grade by comparison. They have overnight batch windows and no mainframe, (unless that's changed recently) just to set where they actually are on the spectrum

So, what caused the huge cost overruns? The Data and the Business Rules the had to be turned into code behind everything Disney is trying to accomplish - presenting those FP ressies to future guests that places them in the Park they want them in and when they want them there. That huge - "datawarehouse- like" entity they want to be able to mine and manipulate. Use it to give those future realtime offerings of discounts, or table service openings based on where you physically are at that moment, and many, many, more, complex algorithms.

That's what was incredibly expensive, that's what caused the cost overruns. That was what was so complex about NextGen since taking those usually horribly defined and documented business requirements from the Execs, Sales, Marketing, Ops etc., and turning them into production-ready code is an art not a science and can take hundreds of man-years to accomplish.

Which is why the Accentures of the world are brought in - very expensive, but they and their brethren are pretty much the only ones who can do it. Neither Disney nor any other company retains that skill set.

Unfortunately, once you "prove" the concept of the software/data warehousing project - the largest expense, it ceases as a depreciable effort. The timing can be very grey, but definitely once you move into true beta (not that 2 year long beta Disney declared publicly). Then, those software development expenses go into FY operating costs - into the maintenance, enhancement buckets. That could have started all the way back to Dec 2012 when I saw CMs, their families and selected guests running around and showing up at rides like HM for their scheduled times that appeared on their IPads.

That was the problem for Disney and what we all saw as the pillaging of Ops budgets across the board for an FY or two. Getting the silly thing to work had crossed over into real, current FY, money that had to come from budgets they didn't plan for.

It happens all the time. And the less sophisticated a corporation is in data, infra. and just in their overall understanding of what they want (Disney), the higher the risk and the higher percentage of cost and time-to-value overruns. Even the most sophisticated corporations overrun by an average of 30 percent. They weren't sophisticated to start. Hence the issue....

And @ParentsOf4, please correct me if I've misstated any of this. I've been more on the running these instead of accounting for these, side of things....

Nothing to add. Just wanted to give @clsteve a hardy welcome to MAGIC Land. It's always great to add another intelligent, rational voice to the dialogue.

(BTW, am impossibly behind right now, so jumping to Page 456 and going from there ... just in case someone asked me something or tagged me etc...)

 

[WDW1974]

That's when it starts feeling crowded, and the Most Visited Park on Earth (since TDL apparently doesn't count) shouldn't feel crowded at 40k.

Yes, when every major attraction (and some minor ones) have waits of multi-hours, then I might start to believe the MK is truly the most-visited park on Earth. I don't now at all.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I find it amusing how much time ESPN's talking heads spend talking about Vegas and betting lines. I don't have any interest in it, but that goes along with much of the hype and drama ESPN thrives on.

Since ESPN is fair game in this thread, I'm surprised no one's commented on the new ESPN website, which is badly designed IMO. The mobile site really hasn't been good on my phone. Scores are a pain to pull up. Comments don't load automatically. I ditched CNN mobile site after its last update, and I'm tempted to ditch ESPN now.

Just another feather in the Disney technology cap.

Agree and disagree. I'm not a fan of the desktop site but I think mobile is greatly improved.