A Spirited Perfect Ten

[DrActorKJ]

After catching up on this thread having been out of town (OK, after catching up on @WDW1974's posts), this article was on the front page of Yahoo:

http://www.cinemablend.com/pop/Disney-Parks-May-Making-Some-Major-Changes-72189.html

The opening to one particular paragraph stood out to me:

"Disney is in the enviable position that they need to do something to reduce the crowds at their parks. Disney has become the one stop theme park for all things Marvel and Star Wars, not to mention all their own stuff."

Boy, all those new Marvel and Star Wars attractions have the parks so crowded they have to do something about it! Oh, wait, if they actually DID build some new attractions, perhaps that would help the problem. But, no. The answer is never to increase capacity, it's simply to raise prices. How many posts does @ParentsOf4 have to write before Disney figures this out?

 

[ParentsOf4]

I absolutely agree and that's my point - because we are parks focused, folks want to think he's doing a terrible job in general when every indicator is otherwise (primarily the film business as we have been discussing).

That said, while the buck stops at the CEO, of course, do you really think that any other business person really would be doing things differently?

BlackRock's Larry Fink, CEO of the world's largest money-management firm, wrote the following earlier this year:

As I am sure you recognize, the effects of the short-termist phenomenon are troubling both to those seeking to save for long-term goals such as retirement and for our broader economy. In the face of these pressures, more and more corporate leaders have responded with actions that can deliver immediate returns to shareholders, such as buybacks or dividend increases, while underinvesting in innovation, skilled workforces or essential capital expenditures necessary to sustain long-term growth.

In 2014, dividends and buybacks in the U.S. alone totaled more than $900 billion, according to Standard & Poor’s — the highest level on record. With interest rates approaching zero, returning excessive amounts of capital to investors — who will enjoy comparatively meager benefits from it in this environment — sends a discouraging message about a company’s ability to use its resources wisely and develop a coherent plan to create value over the long term.​

Bob Iger's 'failure' as a CEO is in following the thinking prevalent in many of today's boardrooms. If the best Iger can do with $40 billion in cash is stuff it in company stock, then Disney needs a more visionary CEO.

To answer your question, yes, I do think a visionary CEO would do things differently.

 

[PhotoDave219]

A flaw in your conclusions from this data is... you're equating crowds with wait times. They are associated, but not equals. Touring Plans tracks wait times, not crowd levels. Wait times are also heavily influenced by Park Ops, schedules, and even factors like weather.

Your park comparisons exaggerate this because a park with a lot of attractions (and capacity) will dillute actual attendance better than a park with less (like DHS).

To connect all this to the 'surge' pricing discussion... one must agree upon what metrics the pricing is intended to track along.

You can take that first issue up with @lentesta. It's his research.

If you have a better Third party dataset that I can subscribe to, I'm open to suggestions. Right now, it's the only historical data I can find that's available.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Iger, on the other hand, is understated, doesn't crave the limelight, and full well knows he is a businessman and not a creative force.

Igor does force his creative hand when there is straying from the franchise mandate.

 

[PhotoDave219]

A flaw in your conclusions from this data is... you're equating crowds with wait times. They are associated, but not equals. Touring Plans tracks wait times, not crowd levels. Wait times are also heavily influenced by Park Ops, schedules, and even factors like weather.

Your park comparisons exaggerate this because a park with a lot of attractions (and capacity) will dillute actual attendance better than a park with less (like DHS).

To connect all this to the 'surge' pricing discussion... one must agree upon what metrics the pricing is intended to track along.

As to the second part, that was addressed in that particular thread. I found that the calendar put forth by Disney in their survey was very similar to the data observed by TP.

 

[flynnibus]

You can take that first issue up with @lentesta. It's his research.

If you have a better Third party dataset that I can subscribe to, I'm open to suggestions. Right now, it's the only historical data I can find that's available.

I'm not challenging the data - I'm challenging how you are using it and extrapolating from it. Touring Plans tracks wait times because that's what their customers are most interested in and people relate to.

That isn't necessarily the same thing as saying the actual load on a park or how 'crowded' it may be. My point being... don't extrapolate too much when looking at a single point of data and let it be what it was.. wait times.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm not challenging the data - I'm challenging how you are using it and extrapolating from it. Touring Plans tracks wait times because that's what their customers are most interested in and people relate to.

That isn't necessarily the same thing as saying the actual load on a park or how 'crowded' it may be. My point being... don't extrapolate too much when looking at a single point of data and let it be what it was.. wait times.

It seems rather representative to me. I would love actual Attendance numbers but I will go with what I've got.

They say it represents the crowd & I'll go with it.

 

[John]

That really stinks then. So CP kids and well-established CM's are all the same?

There are different types of main gate passes, this I know for sure...also I believe there are different levels. My mother has a "Silver" main gate pass. There is also a "Gold". What restrictions on each pass and their differences I am unfamiliar with. I think I was told that a "Gold" pass can enter the parks at anytime. I do know that my mothers "Silver" pass has blackout dates and restrictions.

My mother worked for the company for 20 years and was forced errrrr uhhhhh.........she retired. When we began going to WDW other then most of the main holidays there were no other blackout dates. Now the policy is that you could walk up to the gate and a "blackout" could be unannounced and enforced. That said its mostly for MK. The other parks have no such restrictions or policies.

The big fallacy is that we CM family members don't spend any money. I assure you I personally have spent thousands of dollars in the parks/resorts over the past twenty two years. You would be surprised at how many Cm's work at the arks mainly for this perk. They consider it part of their pay as a CM. With out this benefit Disney will lose more valuable experienced Cm's.

 

[lentesta]

Bob Iger's 'failure' as a CEO is in following the thinking prevalent in many of today's boardrooms. If the best Iger can do with $40 billion in cash is stuff it in company stock, then Disney needs a more visionary CEO.

Amen, brother.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Miramax? Miramax is no more Disney than Marvel and Lucasfilm. They were an acquisition that they later sold.

So could they make better or more successful films? Probably, but they aren't. And you and I both well know that a CEO isn't making creative decisions like that. That's not a CEO's job.

Tomorrowland is another failed theme-park based film project, which is one of the only two types of films Disney seems to be able to make on their own (the other being live-action versions of animated properties). Even the outliers (Saving Mr. Banks) are exploiting existing IP. It's like a disease with them. And it has been since well before anyone knew Iger's name.

So no matter if it was Iger's fault (because he wrote, directed, and starred in it, right...) or not - the basic premise remains - Marvel has already, and soon Lucasfilm will join it, in proving to be brilliant masterstroke acquisitions.

That's all - you can say it's Iger's fault they need them anyway, you can blame him for world hunger, or we can follow him around and criticize him all day for what pictures he isn't taking, but Marvel and Lucasfilm - really getting harder to and harder to argue that they aren't simply the saviors of Disney's live action film business.

And the old Disney, you know, the Walt/Mickey Disney is retired for the new Hulk/Vader Disney.

Cool I guess. I mean how many ways can you repackage nostalgia?

But this is gonna take some getting used to.

 

[sshindel]

And the old Disney, you know, the Walt/Mickey Disney is retired for the new Hulk/Vader Disney.

Cool I guess. I mean how many ways can you repackage nostalgia?

But this is gonna take some getting used to.

My question is how to you feel about Pixar? Being a huge fan of both Marvel and Lucasfilm, I'm all for the acquisitions made, but I can understand purists that think that it's somehow different than "Walt's Disney".

Pixar though, more than any other part of the company in the last 2-3 decades has shown that inventive and imaginative spirit that gets typically associated with the Golden Years of Disney. They made their own characters, told their own stories (the vast VAST majority amazingly well), and held up the banner for the Disney Spirit IMO better than Disney Co did themselves for many years.

I applaud all of their IP purchases mainly because I enjoy them all greatly, and Disney's purchase is pretty much the reason I get to enjoy them continuously. Again, I understand the case against Marvel and Lucasfilm, but don't hear much about the Pixar deal, so I was curious to know your thoughts.

 

[Funmeister]

There are different types of main gate passes, this I know for sure...also I believe there are different levels. My mother has a "Silver" main gate pass. There is also a "Gold". What restrictions on each pass and their differences I am unfamiliar with. I think I was told that a "Gold" pass can enter the parks at anytime. I do know that my mothers "Silver" pass has blackout dates and restrictions.

My mother worked for the company for 20 years and was forced errrrr uhhhhh.........she retired. When we began going to WDW other then most of the main holidays there were no other blackout dates. Now the policy is that you could walk up to the gate and a "blackout" could be unannounced and enforced. That said its mostly for MK. The other parks have no such restrictions or policies.

The big fallacy is that we CM family members don't spend any money. I assure you I personally have spent thousands of dollars in the parks/resorts over the past twenty two years. You would be surprised at how many Cm's work at the arks mainly for this perk. They consider it part of their pay as a CM. With out this benefit Disney will lose more valuable experienced Cm's.

The problem is Disney is ok wth that. They no longer promote empowerment in training. They want robots that strictly do what they are told moving an object from point A to point B. If the solution to a problem requires any thought they shut down and go into program mode. They still rank higher than a lot of other companies but do not come close to what they used to be.

 

[ChrisFL]

I think most could stomach higher prices if we felt the money was being reinvested in the parks, as is happening right now at Universal.

That's why I happily spend a crap-ton of money whenever I visit TDR...they re-invest directly into the parks (and don't have 20 other divisions to funnel cash to)

 

[PhotoDave219]

My question is how to you feel about Pixar? Being a huge fan of both Marvel and Lucasfilm, I'm all for the acquisitions made, but I can understand purists that think that it's somehow different than "Walt's Disney".

Pixar though, more than any other part of the company in the last 2-3 decades has shown that inventive and imaginative spirit that gets typically associated with the Golden Years of Disney. They made their own characters, told their own stories (the vast VAST majority amazingly well), and held up the banner for the Disney Spirit IMO better than Disney Co did themselves for many years.

I applaud all of their IP purchases mainly because I enjoy them all greatly, and Disney's purchase is pretty much the reason I get to enjoy them continuously. Again, I understand the case against Marvel and Lucasfilm, but don't hear much about the Pixar deal, so I was curious to know your thoughts.

I don't view Pixar as an acquisition per-say. They've always been in the distant family. Would say they're the only true story people left in the entire company.

The bean counters and Finance people in Glendale wish they were that cool.

 

[sshindel]

I don't view Pixar as an acquisition per-say. They've always been in the distant family. Would say they're the only true story people left in the entire company.

The bean counters and Finance people in Glendale wish they were that cool.

Yeah, they are a little different in that respect due to the existing relationship.
Lucas had deals with Disney for partnerships, but Disney did not have a hand in creating any of the IP before the purchase.
I can see that.

 

[RSoxNo1]

OK. So. 1200*12 hours is 14400/day. Yikes. Thats still bad even if they dont get the 20% boost. Thats what, 1/3rd of the current daily audience?

We wont know until we start testing and can see how many people can fit a boat, how many boats/min, etc.....

Edit: I cant do math.

It really is a bad plan. If this ride has an insufficient capacity and they're expecting a 20% increase, this would be the most short sighted attraction decision in the history of the company regardless of the bad thematic fit. What's worse is that many of us on here are already considering it the most short sighted decision without the capacity info.

 

[RSoxNo1]

The new scene, as you indicated, will only occupy the former load/unload area. It would only allow for maybe 3 more boats in the flume.

That won't have an impact.

The only things that could possibly increase the capacity would be to either increase the speed of the flume or to dramatically reduce the load/unload times.

Neither are likely.

Lengthening the ride has no effect on capacity. My understanding on the bottlenecks are load/unload and the reverse track switches. I wouldn't be surprised if the track switches are removed if that winds up improving capacity as perhaps that was a greater bottleneck than load/unload.

 

[RSoxNo1]

They aren't being removed. Why did you think that?

Capacity will be the pits for an IP that demands far more.

Agreed, and it really points to this being a horrible, horrible idea. They are literally creating a worse problem than the one they're fixing at Toy Story Mania and Soarin'.

 

[Mike S]

I'll come out and say that Iger probably was a good CEO for the time after Eisner but he's overstayed his welcome imo. The problems with WDW have been stated ad nauseam, he has an obsession with franchises, and those damn buybacks. Also, why is WDP pretty much a remake and sequel factory now? I'm a gamer, mostly Nintendo, and enjoy the occasional remake but this is ridiculous. Marvel and Star Wars were good buys imo but what about Disney's own content? People will get sick of all the remakes eventually. At least Disney Animation seems to be doing well.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It really is a bad plan. If this ride has an insufficient capacity and they're expecting a 20% increase, this would be the most short sighted attraction decision in the history of the company regardless of the bad thematic fit. What's worse is that many of us on here are already considering it the most short sighted decision without the capacity info.

Well, that's what happens when you put people without a clue as to how theme parks work in charge.