A Spirited Perfect Ten

[misterID]

Soarin Will have 261 people per cycle after they build the third theater. Five minutes per cycle with 9 to 10 cycles per hour because you have a load unload time. So realistically, 2500 people per hour. Assuming it's open for 12 hours, you're looking at 25,000 people per day. Assuming of God daily attendance is 40,000 after frozen opens, that's using the 20% growth projection the Disney somehow was expecting… means two thirds of your audience can actually ride soarin.

My numbers for frozen were off yesterday. I was assuming it would be open for 12 hours a day, not the current 11 to 9 that world showcase is. As it currently stands at 900 guests per hour, 10 hours is only a mere 9000 guests per day or one quarter of the current audience.

If frozen stays at 900 guests per hour and if they get a 20% increase in guest traffic that would be somewhere in the vicinity of 42,000 guests per day if you use the 2013 numbers. That means more than three quarters of your audience will Not be able to ride the brand-new headliner attraction of frozenstrom.

Simple math says somebody in parks and resorts didn't do their due diligence.

I don't think the TWDC thinking went past, "where's the quickest and cheapest place we can cram Frozen into so we have a frozen attraction at WDW"

Everyone saw this mess coming the day it was rumored. WS is going to be a disaster with the crowds. And they're going to be angry crowds when there's no other attraction in WS that can pick up the slack. This was so poorly thought out it's almost laughable if it weren't so infuriating.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I don't think the TWDC thinking went past, "where's the quickest and cheapest place we can cram Frozen into so we have a frozen attraction at WDW"

Everyone saw this mess coming the day it was rumored. WS is going to be a disaster with the crowds. And they're going to be angry crowds when there's no other attraction in WS that can pick up the slack. This was so poorly thought out it's almost laughable if it weren't so infuriating.

"What's the least amount of money I can spend at Christmas and have my kids still love me?"

 

[ford91exploder]

For the extra $100, I switch out a 1-11 sticker for a 1-12 sticker. No additional cost, pure profit.

Deal desk approves - once you file the paperwork for the additonal SKU for the sticker

 

[Katie G]

I could expand on the point and prove it, but I'm cooking at the moment.

And We're not taking about how guests tour DLR, we're talking about how guests tour WDW.

I'm aware that this is about WDW, (though DLR got the survey too), which is why I wrote FOR EXAMPLE... oh well! DLR was just a much more clear example of what I was trying to prove.

You can take yearly attendance and average it out per day and say that the parks are always busy, but that just isn't the case. I've been on a weekday in April and had 10-30 minute waits on nearly every ride at MK. I've also been in the summer and early morning hours have the same thing. Though by parade time the crowd levels were more painful and by nighttime they weren't so bad. There is a bell curve of crowdedness throughout the day.

There are some things that impact the crowded feeling way more than others. 1)Peak In Park attendance: there can be 50k throughout the day but when its spread out appropriately, you don't feel it. When they are all on the parade route at the same time, you feel it. 2)Child mix in park. When kids are out of school and all the toddlers are cruising around in their stroller bulldozers and taking up half the walking space with stroller parking, it can feel very congested. Conversely, when you go when school is in session, its much easier to walk around.

 

[Nubs70]

Deal desk approves - once you file the paperwork for the additonal SKU for the sticker

Apologies,

As the Deal Desk is it's own business unit, there would be a labor and overhead cost associated with SKU entry.

 

[Nemo14]

Well, I had to go to the supermarket. Going to Wegmans sometimes means I drive through the battlefield.

That must be some sale to risk life and limb and cannonballs...

 

[PhotoDave219]

Your point centers around MK only which is the favored park of course, but not the whole of WDW. The other parks do experience lower attendance periods. When the tickets give you access to any of those parks, you can't solely focus on MK.

Additionally, any day where MK still lets Cast in would probably be considered a lower attendance day. Total daily attendance and In-park attendance are vastly different and impact the crowd factor a lot. For example, at DLR daily attendance does hit higher levels, but the peak crowded feelings tends to be around dinner time when the locals show up after work. They crowd the walkways and restaurants and make it feel far more crowded than the true peak in-park attendance around 2-3pm.

Oh katie katie katie...... Lets look at some numbers, shall we? Lets look at 2003 Attendance vs 2013 Attendance, from when we actually had an off-season to now when we really don't.

2003 2013 %Change

MK 14.0 18.6 32.8%
EP 8.6 11.2 30.2%
DHS 7.9 10.1 27.8%
DAK 7.3 10.2 39.7%
TOT 37.8 50.1 32.5%

Attendance has grown 32% overall and grew most as a percentage of the total at DAK while the largest number of people added on were at MK. Either way, the resort grew by 32%, this isn't an "MK Only" thing like you suggest. All of the parks have gotten busier and 32% in 10 years is pretty damn good.

Now lets look at Touring Plans' Crowd Calendar from the past 5 years.... (its attached)

See all those white spots? Those are the slowest times of the year. See how in 2014 there really aren't any (outside of early September) while in 2010 there are distinct slow periods?

In 2010, you had three, distinctly slow periods - New Years through Presidents Day, End of Spring Break in April through the end of May when schools got out and from Labor Day to Thanksgiving.

In 2014, those lengthy periods are long gone. You have about 10 days-two weeks in September that are slow and that is it. 2015? Even busier.

So what I'm saying is that (Disney) cannot as a company charge for multiple tiers of crowd levels when only two crowd levels exist: Busy and Peak. Slow periods don't exist outside of a day or two here and there.

Edit: Took out You as to not play the pronoun game

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm aware that this is about WDW, (though DLR got the survey too), which is why I wrote FOR EXAMPLE... oh well! DLR was just a much more clear example of what I was trying to prove.

You can take yearly attendance and average it out per day and say that the parks are always busy, but that just isn't the case. I've been on a weekday in April and had 10-30 minute waits on nearly every ride at MK. I've also been in the summer and early morning hours have the same thing. Though by parade time the crowd levels were more painful and by nighttime they weren't so bad. There is a bell curve of crowdedness throughout the day.

There are some things that impact the crowded feeling way more than others. 1)Peak In Park attendance: there can be 50k throughout the day but when its spread out appropriately, you don't feel it. When they are all on the parade route at the same time, you feel it. 2)Child mix in park. When kids are out of school and all the toddlers are cruising around in their stroller bulldozers and taking up half the walking space with stroller parking, it can feel very congested. Conversely, when you go when school is in session, its much easier to walk around.

I'm also not talking about whether a park "feels" crowded. I'm talking about hard statistical data and real numbers here.

 

[marni1971]

Again, across four theme parks and two water parks, what new things are being offered to WDW Guests for Summer 2015?

The hottest coldest summer ever again just like we did last time?

 

[PhotoDave219]

The hottest coldest summer ever again just like we did last time?

It feels like for the first time in forever.

 

[Mike S]

It feels like for the first time in forever.

Foreigner/Frozen mashup?

 

[Katie G]

Oh katie katie katie...... Lets look at some numbers, shall we? Lets look at 2003 Attendance vs 2013 Attendance, from when we actually had an off-season to now when we really don't.

2003 2013 %Change

MK 14.0 18.6 32.8%
EP 8.6 11.2 30.2%
DHS 7.9 10.1 27.8%
DAK 7.3 10.2 39.7%
TOT 37.8 50.1 32.5%

Attendance has grown 32% overall and grew most as a percentage of the total at DAK while the largest number of people added on were at MK. Either way, the resort grew by 32%, this isn't an "MK Only" thing like you suggest. All of the parks have gotten busier and 32% in 10 years is pretty damn good.

Now lets look at Touring Plans' Crowd Calendar from the past 5 years.... (its attached)

See all those white spots? Those are the slowest times of the year. See how in 2014 there really aren't any (outside of early September) while in 2010 there are distinct slow periods?

In 2010, you had three, distinctly slow periods - New Years through Presidents Day, End of Spring Break in April through the end of May when schools got out and from Labor Day to Thanksgiving.

In 2014, those lengthy periods are long gone. You have about 10 days-two weeks in September that are slow and that is it. 2015? Even busier.

So what I'm saying is that you cannot as a company charge for multiple tiers of crowd levels when only two crowd levels exist: Busy and Peak. Slow periods don't exist outside of a day or two here and there.

I really like that chart, and it does support multiple seasons. Dark Red would be your Gold, Pink would be your Silver and Light Pink/White would be your Bronze.

I agree that there a less pink/white time periods than 10 years ago, and that just supports from an pricing demand standpoint higher pricing.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I really like that chart, and it does support multiple seasons. Dark Red would be your Gold, Pink would be your Silver and Light Pink/White would be your Bronze.

I agree that there a less pink/white time periods than 10 years ago, and that just supports from an pricing demand standpoint higher pricing.

Its not my chart, I'm just using it to Illustrate a point that you're completely missing.

And I dont agree at all. How can you have multiple tiers of pricing for crowds when you don't have multiple levels of crowds?

 

[Katie G]

Attendance has grown 32% overall and grew most as a percentage of the total at DAK while the largest number of people added on were at MK. Either way, the resort grew by 32%, this isn't an "MK Only" thing like you suggest. All of the parks have gotten busier and 32% in 10 years is pretty damn good.

Just because the attendance has increased 32% in 10 years, doesn't mean the parks were unable to handle it with current capacity. You could say that all those periods of low attendance were days where capacity was underutilized.

EDIT: Therefore, there should be a factor applied to those attendance increases to account for operating hours and park occupancy.

 

[Katie G]

I'm also not talking about whether a park "feels" crowded. I'm talking about hard statistical data and real numbers here.

But how it feels is important. For example, you say that 50k people are on average in the park on any given day, some days more, some maybe less. But on those super busy days, you also have significantly more park hours, and therefore more hours for people to park hop, or just come into the park later in the day. So you aren't getting 50k people at once in the park, you are getting 50k people throughout the day.

Many Locals/AP/CM come just for a few hours, not all day long like the vacation/leisure Guests. This may increase attendance for the day, but they don't stay long and don't contribute as much to crowding.

 

[Katie G]

Its not my chart, I'm just using it to Illustrate a point that you're completely missing.

And I dont agree at all. How can you have multiple tiers of pricing for crowds when you don't have multiple levels of crowds?

I'm struggling to see how you are ignoring the spectrum of color on that chart. There is very light to very dark and a full set of variation in between. If that chart was only White and Red, then you could claim 2 seasons, but that chart has Light, Pink, Red, Dark Red.... lots of variation indicating that multiple seasons do exist.

 

[chiefs11]

I commented on this over in the construction thread, but I asked my dad what his thoughts were on retrofitting the flumes with an omnimover system. He just recently retired from UO tech services, but prior to that, worked in WDW maintenance for over 15 years. He said that it would be fairly easy to install the necessary wiring, equipment and tracks as there is already a fair amount submerged. His biggest question mark would be the downhill portions as they would need some kind of anti-slip system to keep the rv's from sliding down too fast.

Why would an omnimover be affected by going downhill? Don't most of the current omnimovers go up and down hills? Pretty sure spaceship earth has a rather long downhill section in it..... With the omnimovers basically being one long continuous train of vehicles, the ones on the downhill side are counter-balanced by the ones on the uphill side, no?

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm struggling to see how you are ignoring the spectrum of color on that chart. There is very light to very dark and a full set of variation in between. If that chart was only White and Red, then you could claim 2 seasons, but that chart has Light, Pink, Red, Dark Red.... lots of variation indicating that multiple seasons do exist.

I can't understand how you're arguing with facts.

 

[gmajew]

Oh katie katie katie...... Lets look at some numbers, shall we? Lets look at 2003 Attendance vs 2013 Attendance, from when we actually had an off-season to now when we really don't.

2003 2013 %Change

MK 14.0 18.6 32.8%
EP 8.6 11.2 30.2%
DHS 7.9 10.1 27.8%
DAK 7.3 10.2 39.7%
TOT 37.8 50.1 32.5%

Attendance has grown 32% overall and grew most as a percentage of the total at DAK while the largest number of people added on were at MK. Either way, the resort grew by 32%, this isn't an "MK Only" thing like you suggest. All of the parks have gotten busier and 32% in 10 years is pretty damn good.

Now lets look at Touring Plans' Crowd Calendar from the past 5 years.... (its attached)

See all those white spots? Those are the slowest times of the year. See how in 2014 there really aren't any (outside of early September) while in 2010 there are distinct slow periods?

In 2010, you had three, distinctly slow periods - New Years through Presidents Day, End of Spring Break in April through the end of May when schools got out and from Labor Day to Thanksgiving.

In 2014, those lengthy periods are long gone. You have about 10 days-two weeks in September that are slow and that is it. 2015? Even busier.

So what I'm saying is that (Disney) cannot as a company charge for multiple tiers of crowd levels when only two crowd levels exist: Busy and Peak. Slow periods don't exist outside of a day or two here and there.

Edit: Took out You as to not play the pronoun game

The change in off times and slow times though is really an effect of school schedules changing. Now you have a lot of systems going all year and the majority of schools offer some sort of fall break. This has changed the guess pattern more then anything.

For example I have friends that have a month off for summer two weeks in fall month in winter a spring break etc. plus all the holidays. They take vacations all the damn time.

 

[chiefs11]

The change in off times and slow times though is really an effect of school schedules changing. Now you have a lot of systems going all year and the majority of schools offer some sort of fall break. This has changed the guess pattern more then anything.

For example I have friends that have a month off for summer two weeks in fall month in winter a spring break etc. plus all the holidays. They take vacations all the damn time.

And the one constant seems to be that all schools are in session the first few weeks of September.