A Spirited Perfect Ten

[flynnibus]

Turns out I loved it when I saw it as the clip doesn't convey the real feel of the experience of viewing it live.

Because you need to see the scale and presence of the fountains.. and intense colors to appreciate the show elements. It's like seeing fireworks on youtube.. vs the rush of things exploding larger than life, the boom hitting you, the environmentals, etc. The problem here is, we've delegated the unique physical characteristics of this attraction to the support cast.. so we can instead watch more clips and narrative.

Instead of seeing how one might visualize a stampede with the fountains.. or how intense large scale light shows can be moving.. we get to watch NPH try to sing and watch some really fuzzy video.

 

[Nemo14]

My explanation is pure speculation and guesswork because I'm only a casual observer. But since you asked I'll provide you with my thoughts. My explanation is that China frowns upon westernization. The CEO of Disney making a prominent appearance at either the Disney Store or the park would probably do more to harm the overall long term goals than to help them. When KFC first entered China back in 1987 they were very low key and had a similar ownership arrangement with the Chinese. I understand that like KFC, Disney has hired top managers from China (where they can) rather than importing executives from the USA or Europe.

I think what they're doing is allowing the folks in China to run the show in those areas in which they have the expertise. In those instances where they have identified weaknesses in the Chinese resource pool, they've filled those gaps with their own people. Aside from the Iger ego, I see no reason why he or any other high level executives from TWDC really needs to show up as front men. They obviously didn't need the publicity. The grand opening of the Disney Store in China was a huge success that seemed to exceed everyone's expectations.

I would imagine that Bob Iger has received advice from experts in Chinese cultural relations and he was probably advised to keep a low profile. As we've seen, western coverage of this event has been minimal and whatever coverage it got in China seems to have worked in spades!

or maybe Spirit knows what he's talking about.

 

[DDLand]

It's not hard to drawn a crowd anywhere in China. They still have queues at the Apple Store at the IFC in Hong Kong.

You can't draw any conclusions beyond there are many people in Shanghai and every major Chinese metro area.

Interesting. That's a simple answer. Well that should make Shanghai Disneyland one amazing commercial.

 

[flynnibus]

Aside from the Iger ego, I see no reason why he or any other high level executives from TWDC really needs to show up as front men.

Because for the TWDC (not China) - this is about the future growth of the company.

This isn't about Disney expanding into Topeka Kansas's new mall.. this is a major element of the corporate level effort to get into the fastest growing market in the world. It represents major investment and major impact on the future of the CORPORATE level of the company. This is the kind of stuff that will dominate the outlook on the business for a long time to come. And the CEO is just gonna say "it looked really nice when I watched the video..."???

 

[Phil12]

or maybe Spirit knows what he's talking about.

If you subscribe to conspiracy theories, then yes.

 

[Nemo14]

Because for the TWDC (not China) - this is about the future growth of the company.

This isn't about Disney expanding into Topeka Kansas's new mall.. this is a major element of the corporate level effort to get into the fastest growing market in the world. It represents major investment and major impact on the future of the CORPORATE level of the company. This is the kind of stuff that will dominate the outlook on the business for a long time to come. And the CEO is just gonna say "it looked really nice when I watched the video..."???

or "I wish they would have let me be there."

 

[Phil12]

Because for the TWDC (not China) - this is about the future growth of the company.

This isn't about Disney expanding into Topeka Kansas's new mall.. this is a major element of the corporate level effort to get into the fastest growing market in the world. It represents major investment and major impact on the future of the CORPORATE level of the company. This is the kind of stuff that will dominate the outlook on the business for a long time to come. And the CEO is just gonna say "it looked really nice when I watched the video..."???

As I said in my preface, it's only speculation on my part. However, some other companies that have been successful in China have taken a very low key approach. That's particularly difficult for Disney because IP is their primary product. I think they have to go slow. But again, it's only speculation on my part.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Because for the TWDC (not China) - this is about the future growth of the company.

This isn't about Disney expanding into Topeka Kansas's new mall.. this is a major element of the corporate level effort to get into the fastest growing market in the world. It represents major investment and major impact on the future of the CORPORATE level of the company. This is the kind of stuff that will dominate the outlook on the business for a long time to come. And the CEO is just gonna say "it looked really nice when I watched the video..."???

Exactly. This is about capturing the emerging middle class in the most populous nation on earth.

It would be an insult if Bob didn't show up.

 

[flynnibus]

As I said in my preface, it's only speculation on my part. However, some other companies that have been successful in China have taken a very low key approach. That's particularly difficult for Disney because IP is their primary product. I think they have to go slow. But again, it's only speculation on my part.

You keep saying that.. and giving KFC as an example... yet it entered the market in a completely different era (1987), and didn't go in low key.. so really I don't know what you are referencing
https://hbr.org/2011/11/kfcs-radical-approach-to-china

 

[ThemeParkJunkee]

Sooo...in light of the impending Communist takeover of the Chinese Disney Park and the significant investment made by DIS in said park, at what point should I sell my DIS stock? Cannot believe there is no coverage on my financial research sites on this.

 

[Phil12]

You keep saying that.. and giving KFC as an example... yet it entered the market in a completely different era (1987), and didn't go in low key.. so really I don't know what you are referencing
https://hbr.org/2011/11/kfcs-radical-approach-to-china

They didn't use the success model they'd developed for the US and other markets. The "radical approach" is just what I'm referencing. They went into the Chinese market low and slow and drastically modified their business model to suit China. Read that link you posted for more information.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Sooo...in light of the impending Communist takeover of the Chinese Disney Park and the significant investment made by DIS in said park, at what point should I sell my DIS stock? Cannot believe there is no coverage on my financial research sites on this.

That's the strangest part. DIS makes up one of the stocks that are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You figure that people would be watching this very carefully, with the stock at insane highs and $5B on the line.

Or are these Wall Street wunderkinds just going to sit there and accept that the mouse knows what it's doing when they say so?

 

[flynnibus]

They went into the Chinese market low and slow and drastically modified their business model to suit China. Read that link you posted for more information.

Low and slow?

• "expanding rapidly into small and midsize cities"
• "Rejecting the measured growth of its China competitors and of KFCs in other countries, KFC China set its sights on rapid expansion"
• "KFC rushed to establish a presence in 16 locations from which it could grow and develop. By 1999 it was opening dozens of restaurants a year, and in 2002 it picked up the pace even further. (In 2008 Yum! Brands’ annual opening rate in China surpassed 500 restaurants, most of them KFCs—compared with 103 new KFCs in the United States.) From site selection to grand opening, it takes KFC China four to six months to bring a new restaurant into the world—about half the time required in the U.S. Some 700 Chinese cities now have outlets."
• " KFC’s rapid expansion in China has allowed the company to widen the gap between itself and competitors: McDonald’s has about one-third as many outlets and owns a 16% market share."

prior to 1992 - they were government capped. And 2014 in China is radically different from 1987 in China.

 

[lazyboy97o]

You really believe that? You believe Bob and Tom traveled over to Shanghai to NOT be seen?



C'mon, you seriously aren't equating a relatively small-scale project for one of O-Town's four gates to opening the Chinese market? Bob's legacy (good or bad) will be all about Shanghai/China (first and foremost) and all his IP acquisitions (Pixar, Marvel, Lucas). No one but fanbois will be talking about DAK's Pandora.

It is now Friday in China. Robert Iger and Thomas Staggs have been in China since Monday. Forget the SDL topping off. Forget the Disney Store opening. Forget the lack of a single picture (beyond one stock Iger pic). Can you explain why there hasn't been one quote from either man in the financial press?



This project has been different from the start, different from every other project they've done. And the financial press is opting to ignore all of the red flags being raised (and, no, not talking the Chinese flag!)

Any quotes would be the same mundane, cliche crap. There is nothing interesting or engaging.

You've said flags have been raised about many things but they're just ignored. You go on about how others aren't being responsible and getting the story out there when you are doing the exact same thing. If you have the details and connections then break the big news. It seems quite a stretch that there are papers and people willing to anger governments around the world but nobody on the entire planet will go near a negative world about Disney? In an age where one can make headlines dumping documents on the right Reddit page that seems odd. Even an anonymous article on something like Gawker could get noticed. But instead everything (which is mostly questions and insinuations that are more often denied) stays here.

 

[NearTheEars]

There were 8 to 10 hour long lines to get into many of the pavilions during the Worlds Fair in Shanghai. Not unusual to see long lines and crowds for something new.

So if there are just tons of people in Shanghai just waiting to queue up for anything, why are we supposed to believe that the Disney park there will fail?

 

[Phil12]

Low and slow?

• "expanding rapidly into small and midsize cities"
• "Rejecting the measured growth of its China competitors and of KFCs in other countries, KFC China set its sights on rapid expansion"
• "KFC rushed to establish a presence in 16 locations from which it could grow and develop. By 1999 it was opening dozens of restaurants a year, and in 2002 it picked up the pace even further. (In 2008 Yum! Brands’ annual opening rate in China surpassed 500 restaurants, most of them KFCs—compared with 103 new KFCs in the United States.) From site selection to grand opening, it takes KFC China four to six months to bring a new restaurant into the world—about half the time required in the U.S. Some 700 Chinese cities now have outlets."
• " KFC’s rapid expansion in China has allowed the company to widen the gap between itself and competitors: McDonald’s has about one-third as many outlets and owns a 16% market share."

prior to 1992 - they were government capped. And 2014 in China is radically different from 1987 in China.

They changed their business model from franchise operations to wholly owned company stores. And as you point out, they were government capped from 1987 until 1992 which turned out to be a blessing. They used the time wisely to learn how to do business in China. When expansion opportunities came they took advantage. Had they started out in 1987 more aggressively (i.e. brought in US executives, stayed with the conventional franchise model, tried to impose U.S. business practices strictly, etc.), they would have been added to the list of American companies that have failed in China IMO.

Part of their success was bringing in Chinese executives rather than running the company from the USA. They also had to develop the supply chain. Also, you've got to remember that KFC had gone through a number of different owners over the years and by 1987 they were owned by Pepsi which was long before Yum! Brands even existed. Under Pepsi they were still under the franchise system in the USA. It's fascinating to me the way they were able to do so well in China.

 

[NearTheEars]

or maybe Spirit knows what he's talking about.

Mr. Phil's on the spot speculation actually kind of echoes what @WDW1974 is saying: that China is in control here. But it obviously leaves out the narrative that Mr. Iger is being shunned and he's angry about it.

I guess my only real question is: Why am I supposed to care?

I know Mr. Spirit keeps waving his finger at us for not caring. I just don't get why?

They are over there, in communist China, building a park, and China is heavily involved. Gee. You don't say.

Bob's not allowed in the photos...
OK. I want to see the construction, not little Bobby.

And heck, when he is in a photo, we make fun of it here anyway.

Now this whole missing $800M deal, yep, something fishy is going on there.
And it needs to be looked into.

But Photogate is just a bore.

 

[NearTheEars]

Low and slow?

• "expanding rapidly into small and midsize cities"
• "Rejecting the measured growth of its China competitors and of KFCs in other countries, KFC China set its sights on rapid expansion"
• "KFC rushed to establish a presence in 16 locations from which it could grow and develop. By 1999 it was opening dozens of restaurants a year, and in 2002 it picked up the pace even further. (In 2008 Yum! Brands’ annual opening rate in China surpassed 500 restaurants, most of them KFCs—compared with 103 new KFCs in the United States.) From site selection to grand opening, it takes KFC China four to six months to bring a new restaurant into the world—about half the time required in the U.S. Some 700 Chinese cities now have outlets."
• " KFC’s rapid expansion in China has allowed the company to widen the gap between itself and competitors: McDonald’s has about one-third as many outlets and owns a 16% market share."

prior to 1992 - they were government capped. And 2014 in China is radically different from 1987 in China.

I feel dirty sticking up for Mr. Phil, but opening up "dozens of restaurants per year" in a nation the size of China doesn't really sound like rapid expansion to me.

It sounds like a TWDC press release we would chuckle at here if they said they were rapidly expanding the parks in the last decade.

 

[Phil12]

I feel dirty sticking up for Mr. Phil, but opening up "dozens of restaurants per year" in a nation the size of China doesn't really sound like rapid expansion to me.

It sounds like a TWDC press release we would chuckle at here if they said they were rapidly expanding the parks in the last decade.

You've probably already looked this up but KFC is the largest restaurant chain in China, with 4,828 outlets. And they started out with just one, low and slow.
http://www.yum.com/investors/restcounts.asp

 

[Cesar R M]

Guess I forgot the dripping sarcasm tag on that one. Sorry 'bout that.

you forgot your sarcasm font.