I don't base my opinion on my frustration with how WDW has been run for the last decade. I base it on the numbers Disney and Universal report on their financial disclosures.
Right now, Disney's domestic parks are kicking some major financial backside, with record attendance, record occupied room nights, record Per Capita Guest Spending, and record Per Room Guest Spending. Next quarter should see Disney break the $300/night PRGS barrier for the very first time.
Financially, WDW is back to being the juggernaut it was last century. Operating margins are up, back to historically normal levels. Whether you like it or not, more people than ever are visiting WDW and it's largely because of the vacationers that are being drawn to Orlando by Diagon Alley.
Yes, if you're looking at simply the last few quarters. I'd like a longer term view before I proclaim WDW the ''juggernaut'' it was in the 80s and 90s. We both also know, and you've even posted using the numbers, that taking NGE costs out of the equation has contributed to the rosy financials (not that WDW hasn't performed well of late, it has).
I just don't know how you leap to the conclusion that WDW is getting a Diagon Boost. It's a nice theory to toss out. And it likely has some validity. But not to the extent you're implying without the data needed to back it up (and, in this case, that data doesn't exist).
Plenty of WDW visitors are still booking a week at 'Da World' in a CBR Pirate room with DDP included and transport by DME. They aren't going to UNI at all because they aren't leaving the bubble.
It's also reasonable to say that many folks drawn to O-Town specifically for Diagon Alley may not have visited WDW at all, isn't it? Or that they went to the MK for a day and EPCOT for another? How do we know? It isn't compiled in ANY of Disney or UNI's data.
There's just no solid way of knowing. Look at all the conventioneers that come to the OCCC for huge events and never set foot in ANY Disney/UNI park unless there's a private event for them at one or both of the resorts.
On a tangent from the above, but something I've wondered for a long time (and you may or may not be able to answer, but you're probably the best bet here) is how does Disney compile Per Room Guest Spend and how does it include DVC owners and, if so, how are they calculated into the equation?
The first phase of WWOHP popped the WDW Bubble. Back then, WDW attendance and hotel occupancy declined as, for the first time, Guests combined WDW and Universal visits in appreciable numbers. Now each time Universal adds something, it's not stealing any more days from WDW. As it was in 2010, Universal remains a 2-day visit for most vacationers. Now when Universal adds something exciting, Uni ends up drawing more business to Orlando, which ends up helping both Uni and WDW. That's not going to change until Universal figures out how to become more than a 2-day visit. Uni's banking on a water park being that draw; I wish I could be as sure.
I certainly believe that was true, but that is coming from an incredibly Disney-centric viewpoint. I've also never seen one Disney or UNI document to that effect. In 2010, WDW was still struggling due to the economic collapse and offering massive discounting. How do you know that UNI didn't get people in with Potter in 2010 and many of those folks decided ''this is so much better than the same old MAGIC at Disney'' or ''my kids enjoy these experiences so much more than another ride on Pirates or RnRc'' and have changed their O-Town vacation habits greatly? It seems very naive to think that people simply always visited WDW, suddenly discovered UNI post-Potter and now give it two days of what is still a WDW-based vacation.
I could argue (I won't, but I could) the point that when WDW decided to make the MK (the quintessential castle park that most people will always view as 'Disney World') a pricier one day experience, they were telegraphing to the industry that their other O-Town gates were struggling and that many people, indeed, were buying one-day tickets and not 9-day WDW vacations with all the trimmings.
Sure, the more people who visit O-Town, the better it is for Disney ... and UNI ... and SW ... and Darden ... and IHOP ... and Starbucks ... and the mom and pop Florida gift shops along 192 and I-Drive. But I'm not sure where your certainty that UNI visitors are largely WDW visitors who are stopping by for 1-2 days at most comes from. ... And I do think the water park will help UNI, just as Disney and SW's water parks have done very well for them.
This year's approximate 1% decline in domestic available room nights is unimportant. The last 2 quarter's approximate 2.3 million occupied room nights are all-time records for Disney. Never have so many rooms been filled at WDW and never have Guests paid so much for them.
It doesn't matter if you or I like what's happening at WDW. Instead, we need to accept that WDW's business has been booming for the last 2 quarters.
I don't disagree with the last six months being good for Disney (or UNI). I'm just not at all convinced of who is making up that crowd (at either resort). That goes into a whole other topic that can be discussed and debated ad nauseum (I think it is a very different mix.)
I just don't see how sending Disney Guests to UNI is ever a good thing. For every Guest who spends half a day there, complains and rants on forums like this after they rushed back to the Pixie Dust about the TMs, the scary coasters, the overrated Potter etc., how many decide they are getting a far better product over there and really don't wish to vacation at WDW in the fashion they have in the past?
Is Disney really that confident in its O-Town product, that it will gladly send its Guests over to sample the wonders that UNI has been creating?
Sorry, but I have sincere doubts on that one.
