A Spirited Perfect Ten

[DisneyFanaticUK]

I'm ok with them waiting a while before they do Star Wars in the parks. I'm a firm believer that quality takes time and great effort. I'd rather wait a few more years for a truly innovative and impressive expansion than a half-baked attempt to quickly satisfy the market. *coughFROZENcough*

 

[Next Big Thing]

That's just terrible management then. Why would a park with 50,000 in daily attendance have the same level of custodial staffing as a park with half that daily attendance?

I can also attest this has really become a major MK issue as of late. As others have mentioned, this wasn't a problem even 2 or 3 years ago, but it seems recently the bathroom situation at MK has been atrocious.

They are so desperate to keep their labor costs down -- god forbid they have a couple extra custodial CM's on hand even if they don't hit their daily attendance projections. (And you see the same thing in staffing at quick serve locations with mobs of crowds and half the registers closed, as well as empty sit-down restaurants that are supposedly "full").

Agreed. When I worked as a Custodial CM at MK, it was actually a pretty fun job and everyone I worked with worked their hardest to keep the place looking the best they could, but there's only so much you can do. When you are consistently understaffed, it becomes hard to maintain the show, and in the end, the front line workers are the ones who take the fall for it, which really isn't fair (unless they actually aren't working). I saw people get fired over the pettiest of things and it all could have been prevented if staffing levels were where they should be.

 

[gmajew]

I'm ok with them waiting a while before they do Star Wars in the parks. I'm a firm believer that quality takes time and great effort. I'd rather wait a few more years for a truly innovative and impressive expansion than a half-baked attempt to quickly satisfy the market. *coughFROZENcough*

I would tend to agree with you but this has now been going on for three years..... They have had park rights for it for longer... They should be able to give us a high quality project by now.... As far as more MK expansion I agree they just finished their biggest expansion in park history.... I am fine with them taking time to see where the chips land..

 

[GoofGoof]

Like you, I also think 15,000 hotel rooms at Universal is a crazy number. Even 10,000 is aggressive until Universal figures out how to become a full week vacation.

With the opening of Sapphire Falls, Universal will have 5,200 onsite rooms. More hotel rooms seem possible right now simply because Uni has relatively few onsite rooms. Is adding a couple of thousand more rooms possible? Sure. Adding 10,0000 more rooms? No way.

For perspective, WDW has almost 28,000 separately bookable hotel and timeshare rooms. These are the rooms that Disney owns and operates. This number does not include the more than 500 at Shades of Green, 2,300 at the Swan & Dolphin, 400 at the Four Seasons, and 3,700 at the Downtown Disney hotels. Add it all together and there are 35,000 rooms on WDW property.

It's virtually impossible without a 3rd gate. Assuming both parks have 10M in annual attendance that's roughly 55,000 guests a day spread between the 2 parks. 15,000 rooms at an average of 3 people per room is 45,000 guests. That's over 80% of guests staying on property. Even with all the rooms and tineshares at WDW the number is still probably closer to 50/50. Unless both Universal parks are going to surpass MK in attendance (which would be uncomfortable) they would need a 3rd gate.

 

[DDLand]

Some great numbers again from Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R).

Let's start with the basics.

P&R revenue for the quarter is $3.8 billion, up a poor 5.6%, the lowest increase since the 2009/2010 recession. However, operating income was up an outstanding 23.9%, the best in 2 years. Overwhelmingly, this is being driven by what’s happening at WDW. Prices are up, attendance is up, and consumers want to vacation in Orlando. All great signs for WDW even if Disney’s International P&R operations continue to struggle.

Looking at the numbers WDW fans should care the most about:

• Domestic P&R Depreciation: $367 million
• Domestic P&R Capital Expenditures: $289 million

This is a much better trend than last quarter, where domestic P&R depreciation actually outpaced capex.

Internationally, Disney continues to invest in Shanghai as Disney reported another $416 million spent on International P&R capex, far outpacing International P&R depreciation. Combined P&R capex was a strong 20.8% of revenue for the quarter. Disney is investing in its theme parks but, right now, it’s mostly overseas.

Repeating what I wrote last quarter, domestic performance shows that WDW needs to build. It needs new attractions to handle increased demand. Pandora helps, a third theater at Soarin’ helps, another track at Toy Story Mania helps, but more is needed.

More is needed at Epcot besides a rethemed Maelstrom. There are pavilions with underutilized space. Unless you enjoy imbibing adult beverages, there’s less to do at today’s Epcot than there was years ago. As a bar, Epcot is doing great. As a theme park, Epcot is struggling.

The DHS redo can’t happen fast enough. There are large areas of the park that need major renovation.

Hopefully, Burbank recognizes that, with the right investment, there’s even more money to be made in Orlando.

The only problem I see is them looking at all these great numbers, and then looking at weakening Disneyland or HKDL numbers. Which one do you think they'll focus on?

Of course the flip side is it does show Orlando still has money that's not being exploited. Maybe there's hope.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The only problem I see is them looking at all these great numbers, and then looking at weakening Disneyland or HKDL numbers. Which one do you think they'll focus on?

Of course the flip side is it does show Orlando still has money that's not being exploited. Maybe there's hope.

Smart corporate management should know that what's happening in the Orlando market should not hinge on what's happening in (for example) the Hong Kong market.

Disney has the financial resources to address all issues at the same time, if it wants to. The question is: Does it want to?

 

[Next Big Thing]

$107!?!?!? I miss my $39.99 Cast Member rate at Pop Century in Jan 04!

CM rates are still around there. They were $44 as of a few weeks ago.

 

[GoofGoof]

Some great numbers again from Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R).

Let's start with the basics.

P&R revenue for the quarter is $3.8 billion, up a poor 5.6%, the lowest increase since the 2009/2010 recession. However, operating income was up an outstanding 23.9%, the best in 2 years. Overwhelmingly, this is being driven by what’s happening at WDW. Prices are up, attendance is up, and consumers want to vacation in Orlando. All great signs for WDW even if Disney’s International P&R operations continue to struggle.

Looking at the numbers WDW fans should care the most about:

• Domestic P&R Depreciation: $367 million
• Domestic P&R Capital Expenditures: $289 million

This is a much better trend than last quarter, where domestic P&R depreciation actually outpaced capex.

Internationally, Disney continues to invest in Shanghai as Disney reported another $416 million spent on International P&R capex, far outpacing International P&R depreciation. Combined P&R capex was a strong 20.8% of revenue for the quarter. Disney is investing in its theme parks but, right now, it’s mostly overseas.

Repeating what I wrote last quarter, domestic performance shows that WDW needs to build. It needs new attractions to handle increased demand. Pandora helps, a third theater at Soarin’ helps, another track at Toy Story Mania helps, but more is needed.

More is needed at Epcot besides a rethemed Maelstrom. There are pavilions with underutilized space. Unless you enjoy imbibing adult beverages, there’s less to do at today’s Epcot than there was years ago. As a bar, Epcot is doing great. As a theme park, Epcot is struggling.

The DHS redo can’t happen fast enough. There are large areas of the park that need major renovation.

Hopefully, Burbank recognizes that, with the right investment, there’s even more money to be made in Orlando.

It was too bad to hear that DLR had a dip in attendance. They don't say how much of a dip so maybe it's not a big deal. I hope they don't sour on new expansions and major projects based on Carsland not being able to maintain the attendance boost at DCA. That would be short sighted.

I agree with your opinion that Orlando is the place to invest now. It's a hot market and the flagship resort. It's time to buck up.

 

[GoofGoof]

Smart corporate management should know that what's happening in the Orlando market should not hinge on what's happening in (for example) the Hong Kong market.

Disney has the financial resources to address all issues at the same time, if it wants to. The question is: Does it want to?

The problem lies in the first 3 words of your post

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It was too bad to hear that DLR had a dip in attendance. They don't say how much of a dip so maybe it's not a big deal. I hope they don't sour on new expansions and major projects based on Carsland not being able to maintain the attendance boost at DCA. That would be short sighted.

Carsland was Potter except it didn't have the cachet of Potter to sustain itself. My best guess is that DLR and WDW are going to piggyback on one another with Star Wars, with WDW looking to sustain growth and DLR looking to recapture the growth that they're currently giving back. Share the development costs and the project becomes much more feasible. The problem there is that the timeline becomes even more protracted than normal as you need to make sure all parties are "ready" before proceeding step by step.

 

[DDLand]

DLR looking to recapture the growth that they're currently giving back.

Plus avoid hemorrhaging guests to the new Harry Potter attractions opening over at Uni. They have to invest.

 

[P_Radden]

Plus avoid hemorrhaging guests to the new Harry Potter attractions opening over at Uni. They have to invest.

Edit: original comment about wrong park, #brainfart.

I've never been to DLR or DCA but have been to UHS.

Though, I'm sure a Tomorrowland revamp would help DL (or any of the parks as they all need a Tomorrowland revamp), have they actually announced any new attractions for DL?

Only thing I've heard of them invest in lately is the purchase of the Carousel Inn.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Invest in these areas asap:
1. Tommorroland Revamp
2. Future World Revamp
3. Star Wars announcement for DHS

These items on top of what we already know is in the works, and WDW should be able to hold its own. The longer they wait, the more it will hurt them in the long run

He's talking about Disneyland.

WDW is not hurting. I get that people want them to be hurting because maybe then it'll motivate them to fix what people perceive as problems, but it's simply not the case. WDW and Disneyland are in dramatically different positions when it comes to their investment needs. DLR needs headliners to draw guests. WDW needs capacity to sustain growth. In that way, Star Wars might actually be counterproductive to WDW since it might draw more guests than whatever additional capacity it adds.

 

[Travel Junkie]

It was too bad to hear that DLR had a dip in attendance. They don't say how much of a dip so maybe it's not a big deal. I hope they don't sour on new expansions and major projects based on Carsland not being able to maintain the attendance boost at DCA. That would be short sighted.

I agree with your opinion that Orlando is the place to invest now. It's a hot market and the flagship resort. It's time to buck up.

I imagine most of the attendance drop at DLR can be attributed to the preparations for the 60th. A lot and I mean a lot of attractions were down for refurb and the local audience in So Cal was aware of this and stayed away. I think you will see DLR attendance jump once the 60th festivities kick off.

 

[ParentsOf4]

It was too bad to hear that DLR had a dip in attendance. They don't say how much of a dip so maybe it's not a big deal. I hope they don't sour on new expansions and major projects based on Carsland not being able to maintain the attendance boost at DCA. That would be short sighted.

I agree with your opinion that Orlando is the place to invest now. It's a hot market and the flagship resort. It's time to buck up.

Let's ponder P&R's numbers a bit more closely.

Revenue is up what is frankly a lousy 5.6% but operating income is up an outstanding 23.9%.

Disney reports declining attendance at DLR, yet Domestic Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS) is up 7% because high-spending WDW Guests replaced low-spending DLR Guests.

Domestic Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) is up a solid 6.2%, loads better than last quarter's 3.6%, while domestic hotel occupancy is at 89% for the second straight quarter, all because of what's happening in Orlando.

Meanwhile, Disney reports poor overseas performance at DLP and HKDL. Domestic P&R revenue is up 8.2% (despite the attendance decline at DLR) while International P&R revenue is down 8.4%.

Essentially, WDW carried the entire business segment this quarter. My goodness Disney management, accept that WDW is a cash cow that should be nurtured, not ignored!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I imagine most of the attendance drop at DLR can be attributed to the preparations for the 60th. A lot and I mean a lot of attractions were down for refurb and the local audience in So Cal was aware of this and stayed away. I think you will see DLR attendance jump once the 60th festivities kick off.

I think that's a tremendous stretch. I could maybe buy that argument on a Q4 call (summer vacation), but I really doubt a refurb schedule would keep away a material number of guests in Q2.

 

[Stevek]

It was too bad to hear that DLR had a dip in attendance. They don't say how much of a dip so maybe it's not a big deal. I hope they don't sour on new expansions and major projects based on Carsland not being able to maintain the attendance boost at DCA. That would be short sighted.

I agree with your opinion that Orlando is the place to invest now. It's a hot market and the flagship resort. It's time to buck up.

It's not really surprising that there is a dip at DL...the DCA redux was bound to drive a spike that would not be sustained long term. But attendance still appears to be very good across the resort with heavy crowds most days, much heavier than 5-10 years ago (pre DCA redux and AP payment plan). The other thing that may by causing some dips is the increase in pricing with AP's not renewing and day guests not willing to pay $150+ for a parkhopper ticket.

Yes, Orlando needs some investment (Epcot, DHS) but Disneyland Park is in dire need of a new/fresh attraction(s). They've been using "enhancements" aka updated Alice, Peter Pan, Matterhorn & addition of the Hatbox Ghost to build excitement and lucky for them, they now have the ability to use these along with the 60th parade and fireworks to carry them for at least another 18-24 months. Maybe by that time we will see the start of something new, possibly Star Wars land.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Disney reports declining attendance at DLR. Domestic Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS) is up 7% because high-margin Guests at WDW were replaced with low-margin Guests at DLR.

The opposite of that, right?

Essentially, WDW carried the entire business segment this quarter. My goodness Disney management, accept that WDW is a cash cow that should be nurtured, not ignored!

That's the conversation that we should be happening around here. The argument tends to be "WDW is dying, it needs a jolt to wake it up." The reality is "WDW is flourishing, give it the love to sustain that."

 

[realdizfan]

SUPERB dark ride? Really? I like it quite a bit but I cannot agree with your view here. It's a "D" ticket in a prime location with an exterior that screams its an "E" Ticket. Lots of lost potential as far as I'm concerned. But I do enjoy that everyone has differing opinions. It's what makes this board interesting.

What really gets me is the notion that it should rival stuff like Splash Mountain or Indiana Jones Adventure. It's a Fantasyland dark ride. What do you believe Disney was intending to do with Little Mermaid? If you expected an E-ticket, then you're exactly the person I was referring to when I couldn't ever hope to take you seriously. I was under the impression that their goals were something along the lines of: Maintaining the classic Fantasyland style dark ride, but use upgraded projection effects and new style animatronics along with an omni-mover ride system to help with capacity. Honestly, other than perhaps Hunny Hunt at Tokyo, is there a better dark ride in Fantasyland around the globe? Spare me with the sub 3 minute "classics" that either use press board cutouts or static figures.

Fantasyland dark rides that are at or above Little Mermaid's level-
Not Winnie the Pooh
Not Snow White
Not Peter Pan (possibly DL's after the update but we'll see)
Not Alice in Wonderland
Not Mr Toad's Wild RIde
Not Storybookland
Not Casey Jr

I guess you could say Small World is, but I don't even know if that's a fair comparison. I love them as much as the next guy, but lets get real- Mermaid is far more cohesive and impressive in comparison. And the notion that DIsney/Guests were "unhappy with it's presentation" so it needed to be closed/refurbished and changed- good for them. They corrected their errors and turned a good ride into a great one. It's been "plussed" within the first few years instead of having to wait decades for a update like Peter Pan, Indy, Mansion, Pirates, Small World and all of the other major Disney e-tickets have received as of late. They just got those issues ironed out when the rides creator still had the authority to correct them, instead of waiting 40 some odd years to do so like it took for Haunted Mansion's hatbox ghost.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The opposite of that, right?

Thanks