A Spirited Perfect Ten

[ford91exploder]

I don't think that it's a question of "mourning". It also isn't just about promoting the DCL at this time, but more precisely the exact content that they posted as promotion.

Forgive me for explaining this, but I do think this may be one of those cultural American vs. British English things so the irony of the Disney posting may not be as fully apparent.

A "bucket list" is a list of things to do before you "kick the bucket" - in other words, a list of things to do before you DIE, and Disney is asking "What are the list of things to do on Disney Cruises before you die".

So, when someone has just died the day before on a Disney cruise excursion, yes, it seems a bit crass - hence the response of the person you replied to saying, "how about to make it back to Port Canaveral" as in that should be on that bucket list...

I agree with the above posters - that was an automated posting, but again, still no excuse - someone should be responsible for knowing that schedule of postings and intervening when necessary, such as in cases like this where at the very least it's just in very poor taste.

^^^^ THIS ^^^^

 

[flynnibus]

What's the over under on how many people die on dcl cruises a year?

How many do we hear about?

Short of other cruisers who witness stuff and post on cruise forums... Where do you expect it to make waves?

They know this too...

Then there is simple left hand vs right hand... Anyone expect a group wide email notice over that?

 

[ford91exploder]

It is rather sad that people focus so much on absolutely ridiculous news while extremely important things are happening in our world. Net Neutrality is passed and stamped, a high profile assassination of Vladimir Putins number one political foe takes place in Red Square, yet servers are crashing on websites from heated debates over the color of a dress. People are feverishly ranting away and lines have been drawn between 'team white and gold' or 'team blue and black'. This is serious people, choose your side wisely because the color of this dress is more important than the future of the internet (the very thing theyre using to spend half their day arguing over the dress), its more important than the murder of a prominent post-Soviet democratic reform activist being slain by the domes in St Basils Cathedral like its 1980's Moscow all over again.

Its hard to even blame people anymore for the lack of discussion over issues that deserve our attention. Look at how the media conveys the news to us. The talking heads casually mention net neutrality, next they make a quick note about funding for HS, and up next....a FIVE MINUTE segment on the color of a dress, chalk full of interviews, pictures, videos, and even going live via satellite to 'fashion experts' to get their opinion on the color. Bait and switch is extremely powerful when executed correctly, and they have it down PAT!

Remember the nightly news is now designed to DISTRACT the people from the activities of our masters in DC, Once upon a time it was intended to INFORM the population and serve as a check on government. But since the corporations get goodies from Uncle Sugar they have all the incentive NOT to report on REAL news.

It makes me wonder just how fast the US Government would capitulate and surrender if someone tossed a nuclear 'bunker buster' into Mt Weather MD (where some think was the 'Undisclosed Location' they hid Richard Cheney) as long as they got to keep their perks and to h--- with the rest of the nation. And the supine press would go along with this.

 

[Phil12]

non infected players are becoming less and less common.
most of the popular software decoders for PC are also infected. and those who aren't do not have all the features.

I honestly can't remember the last time I played an optical disc. For many years now I've always ripped my discs and other media to my NAS. Once that's done my TV, computers, tablets and phones can play any of the content from my router. Even VLC will play blu-ray if you put it in an MKV container.

 

[wdisney9000]

Remember the nightly news is now designed to DISTRACT the people from the activities of our masters in DC, Once upon a time it was intended to INFORM the population and serve as a check on government. But since the corporations get goodies from Uncle Sugar they have all the incentive NOT to report on REAL news.

Funny how the same behaviors are mirrored by Disney social media as far as reporting what the company wants in return for freebies in whatever form TWDC decides to toss at them like dogs on a leash waiting for a treat. Sadly the social media brigade sells themselves short. Disney gets 100% 'happy happy all the time nothing is bad' reporting from them, and in return for being so loyal and unwavering the company lets them have a few free meals or they allow them to ask a 'company approved' question at an online chat with an Imagineer. Quite unbalanced, but you cant blame Disney if they know these guys and gals will settle for the minimum. Of course there a few big fish in that scummy pond, like Lou, but at least he leveraged himself properly or did whatever he did that allows him to strut around the parks with his entourage.

 

[ford91exploder]

Funny how the same behaviors are mirrored by Disney social media as far as reporting what the company wants in return for freebies in whatever form TWDC decides to toss at them like dogs on a leash waiting for a treat. Sadly the social media brigade sells themselves short. Disney gets 100% 'happy happy all the time nothing is bad' reporting from them, and in return for being so loyal and unwavering the company lets them have a few free meals or they allow them to ask a 'company approved' question at an online chat with an Imagineer. Quite unbalanced, but you cant blame Disney if they know these guys and gals will settle for the minimum. Of course there a few big fish in that scummy pond, like Lou, but at least he leveraged himself properly or did whatever he did that allows him to strut around the parks with his entourage.

So very true I actually find it very sad as one of the things that keeps Disneyland fresh is the active and honest social media from it's fanbase.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Look, y'all may want to have another mindless seven page and counting thread on UNI Vs. Disney -- I think this is Version 657 ... or discuss the amazing new Hub ... or drone on about price increases. But Disney is happy with that, so long as you aren't talking about China, SDL, $800 million, Willow Bay and censorship.

Sometimes another "UNI Vs. Disney" discussion is needed. Comcast released its 10K yesterday and comparing its theme park numbers to Disney is telling.

I tend to focus on 2 numbers, operating margin and capex, looking at both as percentages of revenue.

Operating margin tells us how profitable a business is. It's often used as a measurement of how well a business is being run. The higher the margin, the more efficient the business is at making money.

Capex tells us how much is being invested in the business' future, often a predictor of growth. For theme parks, this percentage tells us how much of the money you spend is being reinvested for new attractions and long-term maintenance.

In its most recently completed fiscal year, Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R) operating margin finished 2014 at 17.6%, up a strong 1.8% since the year before. Led by impressive performance at WDW and DLR, Disney's P&R margin is the best it's been since 2002.

Universal's Theme Parks operating margin finished 2014 at 34.1%, up an even stronger 2.6% since the previous year. Universal's Theme Parks margin is the best it's ever been.

On the capex side, Disney reinvested 17.8% of its total 2014 P&R revenue back into theme parks. However, most of that was in China. Domestically, Disney invested only 9.6% of domestic P&R revenue back into its theme parks, one of its lowest levels ever. For some perspective, that bastion of amusement park excellence Six Flags invested 9.2% of its revenue.

Universal doesn't seem particularly concerned that central Florida and California are 'mature' markets. Despite Universal's Theme Parks revenue growing by 17.4% last year (compared to Disney's 7.2%), Universal still managed to invest 25.6% of its theme park revenue back into its theme parks. For some perspective, that's an investment level Disney hasn't exceeded since 1999.

Universal pours money into its domestic theme parks and sees excellent returns.

Disney dumps billions overseas with a resulting operating margin that's half of Universal's.

Those billions being siphoned from Disney's profitable domestic operations and sunk into an enormous infrastructure in a Communist country are never coming back. Even more frightening, all it takes is a reversal of China's "Cultural Revolution" to make that money disappear forever.

Yeah, it makes some on Wall Street nervous and is a pretty good reason why Disney senior executives would want to censor any article questioning the wisdom of a capital intensive outlay in China.

 

[Cesar R M]

I honestly can't remember the last time I played an optical disc. For many years now I've always ripped my discs and other media to my NAS. Once that's done my TV, computers, tablets and phones can play any of the content from my router. Even VLC will play blu-ray if you put it in an MKV container.

yeah, but we're the "few" ones who do that. the majority stream via netflix, buy from itunes, or buy the blurays.

 

[ford91exploder]

yeah, but we're the "few" ones who do that. the majority stream via netflix, buy from itunes, or buy the blurays.

Considering I have a few thousand DVD's - the NAS needed would be data center class with concomitant power and cooling needs, I use Pioneer Elite jukeboxes for my media.

 

[Mike S]

Sometimes another "UNI Vs. Disney" discussion is needed. Comcast released its 10K yesterday and comparing its theme park numbers to Disney is telling.

I tend to focus on 2 numbers, operating margin and capex, looking at both as percentages of revenue.

Operating margin tells us how profitable a business is. It's often used as a measurement of how well a business is being run. The higher the margin, the more efficient the business is at making money.

Capex tells us how much is being invested in the business' future, often a predictor of growth. For theme parks, this percentage tells us how much of the money you spend is being reinvested for new attractions and maintenance.

In its most recently completed fiscal year, Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R) operating margin finished 2014 at 17.6%, up a strong 1.8% since the year before. Led by impressive performance at WDW and DLR, Disney's P&R margin is the best it's been since 2002.

Universal's Theme Parks operating margin finished 2014 at 34.1%, up an even stronger 2.6% since the previous year. Universal's Theme Parks margin is the best it's ever been.

On the capex side, Disney reinvested 17.8% of its total 2014 P&R revenue back into theme parks. However, most of that was in China. Domestically, Disney invested only 9.6% of domestic P&R revenue back into its theme parks, one of its lowest levels ever. For some perspective, that bastion of amusement park excellence Six Flags invested 9.2% of its revenue.

Universal doesn't seem particularly concerned that central Florida and California are 'mature' markets. Despite Universal's Theme Parks revenue growing by 17.4% last year (compared to Disney's 7.2%), Universal still managed to invest 25.6% of its theme park revenue back into its theme parks. For some perspective, that's an investment level Disney hasn't exceeded since 1999.

Universal pours money into its domestic theme parks and sees excellent returns.

Disney dumps billions overseas with a resulting operating margin that's half of Universal's.

Those billions being siphoned from Disney's profitable domestic operations and sunk into an enormous infrastructure in a Communist country are never coming back. Even more frightening, all it takes is a reversal of China's "Cultural Revolution" to make that money disappear forever.

Yeah, it makes some on Wall Street nervous and is a pretty good reason why Disney senior executives would want to censor any article questioning the wisdom of a capital intensive outlay in China.

Let's not forget Universal is also building a big new park in China and they still continue heavy domestic expansion.

 

[ford91exploder]

Sometimes another "UNI Vs. Disney" discussion is needed. Comcast released its 10K yesterday and comparing its theme park numbers to Disney is telling.

I tend to focus on 2 numbers, operating margin and capex, looking at both as percentages of revenue.

Operating margin tells us how profitable a business is. It's often used as a measurement of how well a business is being run. The higher the margin, the more efficient the business is at making money.

Capex tells us how much is being invested in the business' future, often a predictor of growth. For theme parks, this percentage tells us how much of the money you spend is being reinvested for new attractions and maintenance.

In its most recently completed fiscal year, Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R) operating margin finished 2014 at 17.6%, up a strong 1.8% since the year before. Led by impressive performance at WDW and DLR, Disney's P&R margin is the best it's been since 2002.

Universal's Theme Parks operating margin finished 2014 at 34.1%, up an even stronger 2.6% since the previous year. Universal's Theme Parks margin is the best it's ever been.

On the capex side, Disney reinvested 17.8% of its total 2014 P&R revenue back into theme parks. However, most of that was in China. Domestically, Disney invested only 9.6% of domestic P&R revenue back into its theme parks, one of its lowest levels ever. For some perspective, that bastion of amusement park excellence Six Flags invested 9.2% of its revenue.

Universal doesn't seem particularly concerned that central Florida and California are 'mature' markets. Despite Universal's Theme Parks revenue growing by 17.4% last year (compared to Disney's 7.2%), Universal still managed to invest 25.6% of its theme park revenue back into its theme parks. For some perspective, that's an investment level Disney hasn't exceeded since 1999.

Universal pours money into its domestic theme parks and sees excellent returns.

Disney dumps billions overseas with a resulting operating margin that's half of Universal's.

Those billions being siphoned from Disney's profitable domestic operations and sunk into an enormous infrastructure in a Communist country are never coming back. Even more frightening, all it takes is a reversal of China's "Cultural Revolution" to make that money disappear forever.

Yeah, it makes some on Wall Street nervous and is a pretty good reason why Disney senior executives would want to censor any article questioning the wisdom of a capital intensive outlay in China.

As to the 'Cultural Revolution' probably NOT happening, What IS more likely is Shendi finding Disney in 'breach of contract' and seizing the assets of the Jr partner ie Disney and Disney not being a Chinese company will not have a snowball's chance in H--- of prevailing in a Chinese court.

This MAY be the reason Iger is never ALLOWED to be seen at the 'Disney' site, They don't want him seen by the Chinese thereby denying him legitimacy in the ordinary Chinese citizen's eyes. It WOULD be really interesting if Eisner is actually 'given' the park by Shendi, It would be a quite marvelous revenge play on TWDC.

For those who think that would 'poison the well' for further western investment - I assure you the allure of the 'Chinese Market' will continue to attract companies to China like moths to a flame. Iger will be mocked and future CEO's will think I can beat those Chinese guys...

There is LOTS of money to be made in China BY THE CHINESE as they understand US far better than we understand THEM.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Let's not forget Universal is also building a big new park in China and they still continue heavy domestic expansion.

Well, at this stage, Universal is mostly just talking. Quoting Steve Burke:

"So in terms of Beijing, we are talking many years out. We're talking after 2020 a park that opens and we haven't even completed the final design process and much of our arrangements with Beijing, so I think we are a ways away before capital becomes anything that you would call material."​

Universal is hanging back, waiting to see what happens to Disney before beginning any serious capital outlay.

 

[ford91exploder]

Well, at this stage, Universal is mostly just talking. Quoting Steve Burke:

"So in terms of Beijing, we are talking many years out. We're talking after 2020 a park that opens and we haven't even completed the final design process and much of our arrangements with Beijing, so I think we are a ways away before capital becomes anything that you would call material."​

Universal is hanging back, waiting to see what happens to Disney before beginning any serious capital outlay.

.

Yep, Waiting to what the Chinese DO to TWDC, I would not be surprised if Universal licenses their IP to a Chinese operator similar to OLC as that minimizes the risk to them and in the case of upheaval in china they do not have billions of direct investment at risk, Yet diectly benefit from being IN the Chinese market.

 

[Mike S]

Well, at this stage, Universal is mostly just talking. Quoting Steve Burke:

"So in terms of Beijing, we are talking many years out. We're talking after 2020 a park that opens and we haven't even completed the final design process and much of our arrangements with Beijing, so I think we are a ways away before capital becomes anything that you would call material."​

Universal is hanging back, waiting to see what happens to Disney before beginning any serious capital outlay.

I just looked it up and I found the year 2019 as supposedly the year it would open. That sounds like a good amount of time to see how Disney does. Also this article says construction will start this year. http://shanghaiist.com/2015/02/02/construction-universal-studios-beijing.php

 

[GoofGoof]

Sometimes another "UNI Vs. Disney" discussion is needed. Comcast released its 10K yesterday and comparing its theme park numbers to Disney is telling.

I tend to focus on 2 numbers, operating margin and capex, looking at both as percentages of revenue.

Operating margin tells us how profitable a business is. It's often used as a measurement of how well a business is being run. The higher the margin, the more efficient the business is at making money.

Capex tells us how much is being invested in the business' future, often a predictor of growth. For theme parks, this percentage tells us how much of the money you spend is being reinvested for new attractions and maintenance.

In its most recently completed fiscal year, Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R) operating margin finished 2014 at 17.6%, up a strong 1.8% since the year before. Led by impressive performance at WDW and DLR, Disney's P&R margin is the best it's been since 2002.

Universal's Theme Parks operating margin finished 2014 at 34.1%, up an even stronger 2.6% since the previous year. Universal's Theme Parks margin is the best it's ever been.

On the capex side, Disney reinvested 17.8% of its total 2014 P&R revenue back into theme parks. However, most of that was in China. Domestically, Disney invested only 9.6% of domestic P&R revenue back into its theme parks, one of its lowest levels ever. For some perspective, that bastion of amusement park excellence Six Flags invested 9.2% of its revenue.

Universal doesn't seem particularly concerned that central Florida and California are 'mature' markets. Despite Universal's Theme Parks revenue growing by 17.4% last year (compared to Disney's 7.2%), Universal still managed to invest 25.6% of its theme park revenue back into its theme parks. For some perspective, that's an investment level Disney hasn't exceeded since 1999.

Universal pours money into its domestic theme parks and sees excellent returns.

Disney dumps billions overseas with a resulting operating margin that's half of Universal's.

Those billions being siphoned from Disney's profitable domestic operations and sunk into an enormous infrastructure in a Communist country are never coming back. Even more frightening, all it takes is a reversal of China's "Cultural Revolution" to make that money disappear forever.

Yeah, it makes some on Wall Street nervous and is a pretty good reason why Disney senior executives would want to censor any article questioning the wisdom of a capital intensive outlay in China.

Here are a couple of thoughts/questions based on these numbers (which I do think are really fascinating).

1. Universal is primarily a theme park business so are margins on the parks themselves significantly higher than the other ancillary businesses like hotels and restaurants? The numbers seem to imply that.
2. Is Disney just more inefficient at running the parks or are they offering additional, expensive services?
3. Does Disney have significantly more depreciation and maintenance expense since their parks are older?

Universal and Disney parks have roughly the same prices for tickets. Disney has cheaper per day prices if you factor in multi-day passes, but Universal has much cheaper annual passes and a decent size base of AP owners. I think the prices are about a wash. We know Disney has much higher attendance across their 6 domestic parks vs 3 parks for Uni. So at first glance you would have to assume that Disney has a much less efficient cost structure since the margins are so much better at Uni and the park revenues are about the same. Labor is a major component of overall expense. They both pay basically minimum wage for a lot of their front line staff. Does Universal just do more with less workers? Maybe part of the issue is some of the additional expenses Disney faces with things like multiple parades and fireworks at night and some of the resort wide transportation. Parking fees should cover the cost of ferries and monorails and parking trams, but Disney does seem to have more expensive infrastructure at least at WDW.

One thing that probably plays a big factor is Disney's hotel business. Hotels are a major portion of Disney's P&R business. Are margins much smaller at the hotels than in the parks? With the prices Disney charges for rooms it doesn't seem likely, but that must be the case. On overall guest spending, again it's hard to believe that Universal has a significant advantage. Disney has a significantly larger restaurant business which again with the higher restaurant prices seems unlikely to have lower margins.

I'm not sure about my 3rd point. I kinda think it must be a factor since I'm assuming the operating margin numbers include depreciation. Even though Universal has been adding much more over the last decade than WDW, Disney still has a lot more invested overall in their parks and they are still depreciating a lot of those assets. With the age of a lot of buildings and attractions it's also likely they spend a lot more on maintenance. Major maintenance may be included in the capital number, but everyday maintenance would be expensed. This is similar to the situation major airlines face over time. You buy the aircraft and depreciate them over time. Your fleet ages and you start spending much more to maintain it. Then an upstart competitor comes in and has a much newer fleet of planes that are cheaper to maintain and likely better on fuel so their costs are lower.

The capital spending is just poor. No way to justify it. Hopefully after this park in China opens they decide to spend about a decade working on domestic parks (primarily in FL).

 

[ParentsOf4]

I just looked it up and I found the year 2019 as supposedly the year it would open. That sounds like a good amount of time to see how Disney does. Also this article says construction will start this year. http://shanghaiist.com/2015/02/02/construction-universal-studios-beijing.php

Steve Burke is CEO of NBCUniversal and is the person calling the shots. The quote I provided was from Comcast's investment call earlier this week. I put considerably more faith in what Steve Burke said about the timing ("We're talking after 2020" and "I think we are a ways away before capital becomes anything that you would call material") than in anything written on a secondary website.

 

[Mike S]

Steve Burke is CEO of NBCUniversal and is the person calling the shots. The quote I provided was from Conmcast's investment call earlier this week. I put considerably more faith in what Steve Burke said about the timing ("We're talking after 2020" and "I think we are a ways away before capital becomes anything that you would call material") than in anything written on a secondary website.

I know. Just posting the other info I've found. Guess we'll have to wait and see what unfolds in China.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Here are a couple of thoughts/questions based on these numbers (which I do think are really fascinating).

1. Universal is primarily a theme park business so are margins on the parks themselves significantly higher than the other ancillary businesses like hotels and restaurants? The numbers seem to imply that.

As even casual WDW/DLR vacationers have commented, Disney's hotel rack rates are among the highest in the industry for what they offer. Universal and Loews split hotel revenue yet Universal's Deluxe Resorts often cost hundreds per night less than comparable WDW hotels. Offsite, it's possible to find budget hotels for a fraction of what Disney charges for its Value Resorts.

We don't have to guess how much revenue Disney generates from its domestic hotels; they pretty much tell us via Available Room Nights, Occupancy Rate, and Per Room Guest Spending. Using the 3 numbers, it's possible to estimate Disney's domestic hotel revenue: $2.4 billion in 2014.

In 2014, Universal's entire revenue from its Theme Parks division was $2.6 billion.

2. Is Disney just more inefficient at running the parks or are they offering additional, expensive services?

Perhaps Disney's now legendary layers of administrative overhead are part of the problem?

Remember though, Disney's domestic P&R operating margin has been climbing nicely in recent years. Although still lower than Universal's, Disney's domestic P&R margin now compares very well with P&R's Golden Era. What's mostly dragging down Disney's P&R margin is its international operations, which is why some on Wall Street are nervous about a big Shanghai investment.

The deleted article hit close to home and fed into Wall Street's concerns, which is a reason it had to be removed.

3. Does Disney have significantly more depreciation and maintenance expense since their parks are older?

In fiscal year 2014, Disney's P&R depreciation was 9.7% of P&R revenue.

At Universal, Theme Parks depreciation was 10.4% of Theme Parks revenue.

Theme parks generally depreciate assets over decades. Disney typically uses 25-to-40 years. Disney also uses the straight-line method of depreciation, meaning it depreciates by evenly dividing original construction costs by that number of years. Since Disney's theme parks are much older, they are being depreciated using costs from decades ago. Universal is depreciating using more recent costs.

Effectively, Disney's long-term costs are reflected in depreciation and any maintenance capital contained in capex. For both of these, Disney's percentage rates are lower than Universal's.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Yes - up in new england you see at least 1-2 ads per hour for the parks and DCL on TV

One doesn't need a Master Degree to figure that one out. The answer is in the weather reports. Nothing new, however, Disney advertising in New England always jumped from almost nothing to constant during this time of the year. No sense in doing summer advertising because that is a prime travel time for families up north (or anywhere for that matter).

 

[GoofGoof]

As even casual WDW/DLR vacationers have commented, Disney's hotel rack rates are among the highest in the industry for what they offer. Universal and Loews split hotel revenue yet Universal's Deluxe Resorts often cost hundreds per night less than comparable WDW hotels. Offsite, it's possible to find budget hotels for a fraction of what Disney charges for its Value Resorts.

We don't have to guess how much revenue Disney generates from its domestic hotels; they pretty much tell us via Available Room Nights, Occupancy Rate, and Per Room Guest Spending. Using the 3 numbers, it's possible to estimate Disney's domestic hotel revenue: $2.4 billion in 2014.

In 2014, Universal's entire revenue from its Theme Parks division was $2.6 billion.

Perhaps Disney's now legendary layers of administrative overhead are part of the problem?

Remember though, Disney's domestic P&R operating margin has been climbing nicely in recent years. Although still lower than Universal's, Disney's domestic P&R margin now compares very well with P&R's Golden Era. What's mostly dragging down Disney's P&R margin is its international operations, which is why some on Wall Street are nervous about a big Shanghai investment.

The deleted article hit close to home and fed into Wall Street's concerns, which is a reason it had to be removed.

In fiscal year 2014, Disney's P&R depreciation was 9.7% of P&R revenue.

At Universal, Theme Parks depreciation was 10.4% of Theme Parks revenue.

Theme parks generally depreciate assets over decades. Disney typically uses 25-to-40 years. Disney also uses the straight-line method of depreciation, meaning it depreciates by evenly dividing original construction costs by that number of years. Since Disney's theme parks are much older, they are being depreciated using costs from decades ago. Universal is depreciating using more recent costs.

Effectively, Disney's long-term costs are reflected in depreciation and any capital maintenance contained in capex. For both of these, Disney's percentage rates are lower than Universal's.

So I would conclude that since Disney has to have much higher margins on their massive hotel business and they have significantly more "overpriced" restaurants that have a great markup, their operating expenses in the parks must be significantly more. Disney has so many high margin extras they are selling like nightly dessert parties for fireworks and all the other upsell events. It's really hard to understand how/why Disney would have lower overall margins.