A Spirited Perfect Ten

[WDW1974]

Yes and yes. Try potentially permanent lung damage and toxic material concerns. "Mess" doesn't begin to describe the fiasco that has been constructing Shanghai Disneyland.

As for Tokyo Disneyland... I won't pretend to know more than Spirit, but plans are certainly being scaled back. There have been problems with securing cheap construction labor in Tokyo in light of the upcoming Olympics there in 2020. Any remaining construction crews come at a heavy price, so major cuts will be/have been taking place to the work at Tokyo Disneyland (and even WDI staff).

No, everything in Shanghai is MAGICal. I know this because Burbank tells me so.

As for TDR's massive plans, if you want to compare notes feel free to drop me one. But I have heard nothing at all to suggest a scaling back. I know people have been pulled from work on it due to SDL's continued issues, but that has also delayed Star Wars back here, yet no one will ever say so. ... I would be shocked if anything other than delays are going on at TDR. The OLC has needed and wanted an aggressive expansion plan and this is it. ... As for labor, there is plenty to go around. This is Tokyo in the 21st century.

 

[tokengator]

Anyone know how people take Twitter seriously when having 10,000 followers only means you have 10,000 IPs/devices that exist and have attached to your site, not 10,000 actual people? (It would seem that even very popular celebs have Twitter accounts that are majority followed by bots and not real accounts ...yet Twitter is so important? Um ... no.)

A lot of the "bots" are actually bought and paid for. Yep, there is services that will give you X followers for X amount of money.
When it was discovered some of our government agencies have millions of bots I wouldn't be shocked if they too were using these services instead of random bots like the articles covering these stories tend to push the reader into believing

 

[tokengator]

for as low as $1 you can have twitter followers fast!
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lmao...what has this world come to

 

[WDW1974]

My company is getting record turnaround speed from factories in China because international and domestic trade is down so significantly in China. Many in our industry are rapidly moving to Vietnam and for all the talk of growth (inflated by constant governmental construction projects of virtually unoccupied cities), turning China into a consumer driven economy continues to be way below the pace of expansion as expected.

I continue to think that all of this is a romanticized vision of corporate America that sees a billion plus potential consumers of their junk. The obsession and pandering to the Chinese market is nauseating. How many more script changes to major films to please the Chinese censors? All the while, most don't realize that the studio take is a fraction of their domestic take based on a variety of factors as you know.

Iger certainly has been on the forefront of the China pivot of sorts, but I can't seem to continue to think that the joke is on all of us. The Chinese of wealth have a large appetite for luxury goods be it from Europe or America, but they still have barely moved the needle on the large volume goods that is what all this corporate investment is supposed to garner.

Wish we had a 'love' button for posts like the above.

Been watching a fair bit of CNN International this week and they have had lots of Star Wars coverage. But I doubt they showed the report in the US of the Chinese premiere (Sunday night in Shanghai, I am sure the talent loved flying to China on Christmas weekend) and talked about how SW has no history and no reference points for the average person over there ...and how its success will all fall to marketing because of that. If you don't know who Han Solo is, then why would his dying resonate with you?

And when I hear analysts (other than good friend Richie G) puke forth talking points about the Chinese box office and the opening of SDL having huge effects on DIS's bottom line in 2016 and the next few years I just wonder what they are smoking and if it is the same stuff some of the staff at Celebration Place enjoys.

 

[tokengator]

interesting tidbit about China and Star wars.

Kennedy said they had just finished shooting "Rogue One," the first stand alone "Star Wars" story. Hong Kong martial arts actor Donnie Yen and Chinese actor and director Jiang Wen have roles in it.


This was obviously very intended. Pandering may be the word to best describe it.

 

[tokengator]

The movie is going to do just fine in china, imo


Star Wars' Takes Chinese Social Media by Storm
a Reuters analysis of posts on popular microblog Sina Weibo shows “Star Wars” has been mentioned around 700,000 times since the start of December, outpacing other big hit Hollywood releases in China this year.

“I roughly know the story plot but I have never seen any of the films in the series before,” admitted Yao Yiyun, 22, a computer programming student in Shanghai. “When it comes out at the cinemas I want to see it though, especially because I like science fiction.”

Online chatter won’t guarantee box office success in China for the film, which has a red-carpet premiere in Shanghai on Sunday and goes on general release in the mainland on Jan. 9.

But curiosity among the world’s biggest online community could help the film rival smash hits like action movie “Furious 7”, the latest in a series long popular with Chinese viewers that took over $180 million in its opening weekend in China.

Over a comparable period in its pre-release schedule, “Furious 7” had racked up 230,000 Weibo hits, before soaring to over 300,000 hits in a single day when it opened this year.

Jeff Bock, senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations Co, predicts “The Force Awakens” will take in some $100 million during its first weekend in China. Others forecast more.

“The movie is going to do well regardless of its take here,” said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based principal of China Market Research Group. “But if it wants to target global records then how it does in China is going to be critical.”

 

[WDW1974]

Stephanie Ruhle's question wasn't specific to MagicBands; it concerned "magic bands technology", a.k.a. "the seamless pay that [Disney] rolled out in Orlando". The "seamless pay" is much more than MagicBands. MagicBands are simply the consumer device used to access WDW's system.

Of course much of MyMagic+ technology is already, at best, dated and, at worst, obsolete in less than 3 years. You don't have to take my word for it. CFO Jay Rasulo acknowledged this was going to happen when he spoke to investors about MyMagic+ depreciation in February 2013:

One thing I just wanted to add for all of you -- Jessica, as well -- is that part of the expenses that Bob talked about of course will be depreciation of the capital investment. And compared to what we usually invest in, the life on these assets, particularly on the system side, is very short.​

And again in November 2013:

But, as you can imagine with a project like MyMagic+, which had a very heavy IT investment, which depreciates on a much more rapid basis than the normal assets we put into place in World​

Rasulo is not talking about MagicBands; he's referencing the entire MyMagic+ IT system.

Disney knew perfectly well that the MyMagic+ technology had a short shelf-life and this is reflected in its depreciation. This is not just MagicBands but the entire "magic bands technology" that Ruhle asked about:

The magic bands technology, the seamless pay that you rolled out in Orlando that was successful but also a big investment. Will we see that in Shanghai? Or has Apple Pay, mobile payments, kind of made that obsolete?​

Iger's non-answer 100% dodged the question. The "real" answer is: "No, you won't see MyMagic+ at Shanghai because advances in technology have made MyMagic+ obsolete."

I'm trying to avoid turning this into yet another MyMagic+ debate so I promise not to post on the topic again within the confines of the current discussion. However, since @WDW1974 brought up the Bloomberg interview, I thought fans of WDW would appreciate what Iger said or, more importantly, what he didn't say about "magic bands technology".

Your turn.

I appreciate that. I am done arguing about NGE and MM+.

But I will say that MAGIC Bands and much of the initiative was designed for Disney Parks globally. And we all knew that was never going to happen two years ago. Even the 'parts' of NGE that were to be exported have been scaled way back. OLC told them no, flat out. HKDL isn't buying. ... and what will happen in Anaheim and Paris are a tiny fraction of what Disney intended.

This was a huge tech boondoggle sold to the TWDC BoD and Wall Street and the general public as something that would revolutionize the theme park going experience. It didn't. It hasn't. And it won't.

​

 

[WDW1974]

One reason perhaps as when the Frozen attraction was greenlighted, Tokyo had not yet been awarded the Olympics, OLC is not known for being stupid or shortsighted

Not really. Having major new attractions/additions was done with the idea in mind that Tokyo would be seeing an influx in visitors both during and after the Olympiad.

 

[WDW1974]

They probably justified it in the same way you justified a massive rant against TWDC when it literally has nothing to do with them.

OLC is the company responsible for securing labor for their park. I'm generally irked with their thus-far sluggish handling of the expansion, but I wouldn't go that far.

How is OLC's expansion sluggish versus anything DIS has done stateside in the last decade?

 

[WDW1974]

Googled the author, has an interesting history.

http://opinion.latimes.com/opinionla/2006/04/hiltzik_suspend.html

I also think this backlash is the most predictable backlash in history. The movie is too big and too well liked to escape the "it's cool to hate it" columns and comments. Soon there will be a backlash to the backlash, it's a fun cycle.

I don't think the author's history has any moment in this discussion whatsoever. You want to discredit him instead of talk about what he wrote?

I think it's sad, but totally predictable, that fans can't handle the fact that not everyone was/is going to like the film.

I liked the film and I still think the guy made some great points. I'd even apply them more to Marvel, although Iger clearly wants that model on Lucasfilm as well, which thinks you should make a seven-year, 12-film commitment when you go to spend 2-3 hours at the cinema to see a popcorn flick. I just fundamentally have an issue with that mentality. And people WILL tire of that. Just wait ...

Cliffhangers may be fine for TV, but I don't particularly enjoy them at the cinema ... or searching for Easter eggs in Avengers that may come out in a Thor film in three years and a Captain America film in two etc.

 

[ford91exploder]

for as low as $1 you can have twitter followers fast!
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lmao...what has this world come to

Yup and buying twitter followers is a 'conspiracy theory', Actually not just 21'st century marketing. and why i dont trust twitter for more than weather and transit updates.

 

[WDW1974]

I am so turned on that @WDW1974 is back on MAGIC. You can demolish my forrest for an expansion pad anyday!

That is the best new fanboi pickup line I have heard in a long time!

 

[Nemo14]

That is the best new fanboi pickup line I have heard in a long time!

 

[WDW1974]

Iger's defensive has been noted:

Disney's CEO Bob Iger Needs to Talk Straight; Here's Why
By Eric Jackson

After Star Wars had a record opening, Bob Iger, the CEO of Disney (DIS) went on Bloomberg TV last Monday to take a bow. And he was allowed to, mostly.

Iger was asked, however, about an unnamed analyst -- in fact it was Rich Greenfield of BTIG -- who had recently turned negative on the stock and downgraded it to a $90 price target on Friday Dec. 18.

The call looks smart now. Disney was down 4.5% in the week following the release of the new blockbuster that will likely pass Avatar as the biggest grossing film ever.

Iger's comments about Greenfield -- who was never mentioned by name by either him or the TV hosts -- were odd, as he suggested that the analyst had been consistently wrong before on his Disney calls. Therefore, why should anyone believe him now? Iger asked rhetorically: "Where's the accountability for these analyst guys?"

Greenfield's calls on Disney's stock, in fact, have been pretty accurate, as he tweeted out later in the day.

I'm no Greenfield apologist. He hasn't always been right. I remember seeing him on Squawk Box after the August media massacre and he was challenged by Joe Kernan about being negative on Disney. Greenfield advised not shorting Disney then. That might have been a right call then on timing and valuation, but it's the call he's now made in December.

But, let's face it, Iger lashing out at Greenfield irrationally makes him look bad and Greenfield look good. Just what is Iger worried about?

Greenfield's points apparently are hitting the mark. That was demonstrated by Iger's reaction and lack of details in responding to his critics with any specifics about how and when they will go direct to consumer without upsetting his cable and satellite partners.

It would be nice to see Iger have to answer some specific questions about just how he will respond to the issues facing his business. It's not enough to just make statements about a mature business like it will still grow well in the future.​

2016 will be the best financial year ever for TWDC, something for Iger to be proud of. Yet his needless public criticisms of both the Chinese and a lone analyst made Iger appear petty.

What is Iger worried about? Really. He has 2.5 years left. He'll leave as a billionaire as many of his workers struggle to buy food and attend to medical needs.

But at heart he is a petty egotist that wants to control everything. He has done a great job with the media and almost every analyst, but the Chinese are not as easily ruled. And all the sunny PR doublespeak in the world can't make up for the fact that SDL has been a disaster and when Bob crawls into bed with Willow he likely has said on multiple occasions that he wishes he never signed the deal ... or maybe not, his ego might get the best of him even in those quiet moments.

 

[WDW1974]

I agree with the original writer, however, Iger makes a good point that the writer could/should have gone into. These analysts have outsized power and based on my experience do very little research into the companies they are tasked with monitoring.

That goes on both sides of the Disney issue, with analysts expecting SW to bring outsized growth while also ignoring and then exaggerating the ESPN subscriber issues. It doesn't take a genius to know that linear TV has lost net subs over the last 3-5 years and with ESPN at 95-99% of linear TV subs, you know that ESPN has lost subscribers in alignment to Cable/Sat/IPTV providers.

It's as if these 'analysts' skim the press releases and call it 'research' and you have the economy riding on these idiot analysts and the Journalists who report the analyst opinions as fact.

I generally agree about the analysts, however, Greenfield is truly one of the best. I know that he studies the company on many levels and doesn't just take Zenia's talking points and puke them out on CNBC.

He puts the time and effort in to research them ... and he can't be bought off with a week's stay at the Grand Floridian concierge with a daily plaid for the family. Many others can. And are.

 

[xdan0920]

I don't think the author's history has any moment in this discussion whatsoever. You want to discredit him instead of talk about what he wrote?

I think it's sad, but totally predictable, that fans can't handle the fact that not everyone was/is going to like the film.

I liked the film and I still think the guy made some great points. I'd even apply them more to Marvel, although Iger clearly wants that model on Lucasfilm as well, which thinks you should make a seven-year, 12-film commitment when you go to spend 2-3 hours at the cinema to see a popcorn flick. I just fundamentally have an issue with that mentality. And people WILL tire of that. Just wait ...

Cliffhangers may be fine for TV, but I don't particularly enjoy them at the cinema ... or searching for Easter eggs in Avengers that may come out in a Thor film in three years and a Captain America film in two etc.

I don't think I made any comment on his history either positive or negative. I always research authors when I don't know who they are. How else am I supposed to know whether or not to take them seriously? This particular author has a very interesting history. He's won a Pulitzer, but also been suspended by his employer for creating pseudonyms and posing as his own biggest fans. That's pretty darn interesting to me.

I have seen TFA once in standard 2d, I am going to see it in IMAX though, I want to see if it's worth the upcharge. I loved the movie the first time through, flaws and all.

All I am saying is, the backlash is predictable. It's not just Lucas fanboys who are loving this film either. My wife, who doesn't like Star Wars, loved the movie. The movie is grading out with an A cinema score, and +90% critic reviews, it's a well liked, popular movie. Of course there is gonna be contrarians aka cool kids out there who don't like it for the sake of not liking something everyone does.

To the larger point, you not liking serialized movies. I get that. That's a you thing though. There are many of us out there who prefer anthologies. My favorite TV shows are serialized, my favorite books are serialized, and now the same goes for my favorite flicks.

 

[Rodan75]

I generally agree about the analysts, however, Greenfield is truly one of the best. I know that he studies the company on many levels and doesn't just take Zenia's talking points and puke them out on CNBC.

He puts the time and effort in to research them ... and he can't be bought off with a week's stay at the Grand Floridian concierge with a daily plaid for the family. Many others can. And are.

If he was a good analyst, he would have been raising ESPN subscriber concerns 2 years ago. He may be one of the best, but analysts either didn't research or purposefully hid observations on linear TV subscriber growth from investors.

 

[PhotoDave219]

What is Iger worried about? Really. He has 2.5 years left. He'll leave as a billionaire as many of his workers struggle to buy food and attend to medical needs.

But at heart he is a petty egotist that wants to control everything. He has done a great job with the media and almost every analyst, but the Chinese are not as easily ruled. And all the sunny PR doublespeak in the world can't make up for the fact that SDL has been a disaster and when Bob crawls into bed with Willow he likely has said on multiple occasions that he wishes he never signed the deal ... or maybe not, his ego might get the best of him even in those quiet moments.

Hold up for one sec.

The deal he signed with China or the deal he signed with Willow?


(Couldn't pass up that joke)

 

[PhotoDave219]

I appreciate that. I am done arguing about NGE and MM+.

But I will say that MAGIC Bands and much of the initiative was designed for Disney Parks globally. And we all knew that was never going to happen two years ago. Even the 'parts' of NGE that were to be exported have been scaled way back. OLC told them no, flat out. HKDL isn't buying. ... and what will happen in Anaheim and Paris are a tiny fraction of what Disney intended.

This was a huge tech boondoggle sold to the TWDC BoD and Wall Street and the general public as something that would revolutionize the theme park going experience. It didn't. It hasn't. And it won't.

​

But but but.... It's shiney! And we used an outside contractor! From San Francisco!

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I generally agree about the analysts, however, Greenfield is truly one of the best. I know that he studies the company on many levels and doesn't just take Zenia's talking points and puke them out on CNBC.

He puts the time and effort in to research them ... and he can't be bought off with a week's stay at the Grand Floridian concierge with a daily plaid for the family. Many others can. And are.

"Willow, give me the head of Rich Greenfield or I will trade you in for a new model."