A Spirited Perfect Ten

ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Cesar R M said:
expectations and estimates will always be that..
and who knows if someone brings a silly excuse for greece to affect the market again (like it did years ago).

Or worse.. the deceleration of China's economy hits big.
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From the Forbes (who I trust a bit more than Yahoo finance) article I pulled my number from

Disney’s international resorts and theme park operations have seen slower growth in the past few years. Disney’s international parks and resorts are located in Paris, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Japan. Looking at the hotel side, the performance of a property primarily depends on two factors, occupancy rate and average per room spending. Disney has seen steady growth in room spending over the past few years led by a recovery in Europe and strength in Asian economies. However, the occupancy rates have declined since the recessionary period. While we expect occupancy levels to marginally improve from the current levels, room spending will continue to grow at a steady pace in the coming years. Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years. However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016. On that note, we discuss below the trends in Disney’s international theme parks and hotel operations and what will drive its growth in the coming years.

We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015 and EPS of $4.90, which is in line with the market consensus of $4.46-$5.08, compiled by Thomson Reuters. We currently have a $105 price estimate for Disney’s shares, which is more than 5% below the current market price of $114.
 
ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
MattM said:
Do you knowingly put out bad information?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DIS&ql=1 (Spoiler: Target $120)

f06iyo.jpg
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I always use the least optimistic figures.

Forbes has quite a different analysis

Disney’s international resorts and theme park operations have seen slower growth in the past few years. Disney’s international parks and resorts are located in Paris, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Japan. Looking at the hotel side, the performance of a property primarily depends on two factors, occupancy rate and average per room spending. Disney has seen steady growth in room spending over the past few years led by a recovery in Europe and strength in Asian economies. However, the occupancy rates have declined since the recessionary period. While we expect occupancy levels to marginally improve from the current levels, room spending will continue to grow at a steady pace in the coming years. Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years. However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016. On that note, we discuss below the trends in Disney’s international theme parks and hotel operations and what will drive its growth in the coming years.

We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015 and EPS of $4.90, which is in line with the market consensus of $4.46-$5.08, compiled by Thomson Reuters. We currently have a $105 price estimate for Disney’s shares, which is more than 5% below the current market price of $114.
 
xdan0920

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
PhotoDave219 said:
No, I agree with that.....

But facts are facts.

Someone decided to play the "manipulate the data" game and is losing. Badly.
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No. Someone (me) googled attendence figures for pro sports. The first page of hits was all AVERAGE attendence. Simple. I'm not playing anything.

PhotoDave219 said:
Go back a few pages. Someone was chest-beating and saying that MLS was more popular than the NBA and NHL and didn't frame it in context. Thats how this all started.
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Reading comprehension not part of the training to be a "professional" photographer, huh? I said MLS leads the NBA and NHL in attendence. No more, no less. You went into one of your typical childlike fits, and read what you felt like reading rather then what was there.

What's the grudge against MLS about, anyway? Wouldn't let you take pictures?
 
jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
ford91exploder said:
From the Forbes (who I trust a bit more than Yahoo finance) article I pulled my number from

Disney’s international resorts and theme park operations have seen slower growth in the past few years. Disney’s international parks and resorts are located in Paris, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Japan. Looking at the hotel side, the performance of a property primarily depends on two factors, occupancy rate and average per room spending. Disney has seen steady growth in room spending over the past few years led by a recovery in Europe and strength in Asian economies. However, the occupancy rates have declined since the recessionary period. While we expect occupancy levels to marginally improve from the current levels, room spending will continue to grow at a steady pace in the coming years. Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years. However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016. On that note, we discuss below the trends in Disney’s international theme parks and hotel operations and what will drive its growth in the coming years.

We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015 and EPS of $4.90, which is in line with the market consensus of $4.46-$5.08, compiled by Thomson Reuters. We currently have a $105 price estimate for Disney’s shares, which is more than 5% below the current market price of $114.
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They seem to be underestimating the power of the force.

imo
 
asianway

asianway

Well-Known Member
WDW1974 said:
All I know of her is that she is in entertainment at MK and was an ambassador in the late 90s (less scary than Steven Miller, though!)
Any other info? Has she started yet or does she have a date?
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Oh no, that Melissa? One need look no further than MKs entertainment offerings to see where her stewardship will lead. Guess they need her experience in opening princess sweatshops? Who's going to tell EE and his cornbread cronies?

Cc @drew81

And I think Rilous is still there.
 
M

MattM

Well-Known Member
ford91exploder said:
From the Forbes (who I trust a bit more than Yahoo finance) article I pulled my number from

Disney’s international resorts and theme park operations have seen slower growth in the past few years. Disney’s international parks and resorts are located in Paris, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Japan. Looking at the hotel side, the performance of a property primarily depends on two factors, occupancy rate and average per room spending. Disney has seen steady growth in room spending over the past few years led by a recovery in Europe and strength in Asian economies. However, the occupancy rates have declined since the recessionary period. While we expect occupancy levels to marginally improve from the current levels, room spending will continue to grow at a steady pace in the coming years. Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years. However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016. On that note, we discuss below the trends in Disney’s international theme parks and hotel operations and what will drive its growth in the coming years.

We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015 and EPS of $4.90, which is in line with the market consensus of $4.46-$5.08, compiled by Thomson Reuters. We currently have a $105 price estimate for Disney’s shares, which is more than 5% below the current market price of $114.
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Yahoo Finance is an aggregator. They're averaging price targets by analysts. They're not analysts themselves. Cmon, man.

The Thompson Reuters report takes it even further.

Using a low target to fit your narrative, especially after DIS caught another upgrade yesterday, is amateur, if not irresponsible.
 
M

Mat Cauthon

Well-Known Member
ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
MattM said:
Yahoo Finance is an aggregator. They're averaging price targets by analysts. They're not analysts themselves. Cmon, man.

The Thompson Reuters report takes it even further.

Using a low target to fit your narrative, especially after DIS caught another upgrade yesterday, is amateur, if not irresponsible.
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Click the link - lots of backup data there, I'm not sorry that my opinion conflicts with the 'Everything is Awesome' narrative from DISNEY and it's brand advocates.
 
ford91exploder

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
In other China news - Major shareholders of Chinese Stock banned from selling for 6 months,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ck-sales-by-major-shareholders-for-six-months

Yep 'Everything is Awesome' with China these days - of course who is gonna fund the USG's spending spree now... And what happens to SDL & TWDC if the Chinese economy is in free fall.

As a result of the ongoing freefall bought a new vertical milling machine for half of what it cost 3 months ago...
 
SYRIK2000

SYRIK2000

Well-Known Member
PhotoDave219 said:
I'm perpetually amazed at what this community is able to accomplish.

@Lee & @WDW1974 have corporate affairs & budgeting down. @marni1971 has Operations and all sorts of other neat things covered, including history. @danlb_2000 has permitting watched. @lentesta has daily crowd levels & forecasting going.... and other things. (I do my fun smartassery, shinebox distribution and occasional analysis of the crowds, which wouldn't be possible without Len's work plus filtering information passed on.) Plus many many others who are well connected, well informed people who drop all of us notes constantly. Plus @71jason who has all of DTD & the nightlife scene covered.

@wdwmagic has essentially set up a decentralized, informal, information network that knows everything Disney is going to do before it ever comes out.
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That's why I'm here. And I appreciate all the work that is being done for us. Thank You.
 
M

MattM

Well-Known Member
ford91exploder said:
Click the link - lots of backup data there, I'm not sorry that my opinion conflicts with the 'Everything is Awesome' narrative from DISNEY and it's brand advocates.
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Brand advocates. Now that's funny. All I care about is making money. I don't care which company it's from.

Your thesis on a target price based on International Parks and Resorts performance which is one part of one division of a 5 division company (4 after the consolidation) is just plain silly. But keep citing Forbes. A great magazine with fantastic stories. But a publication that almost nobody in the professional world uses for stock advice.

Pro tip: never take investing advice from a magazine you can buy at a grocery store.
 
stretchsje

stretchsje

Well-Known Member
So why is Disney so slow to build things despite greater expense compared to Universal? I've seen many generalized explanations of bureaucracies of corporations and WDI wasting money and union labor and so on. Star Wars land was waiting on direction of the movies, plus the first draft wasn't ambitious enough. Avatar's lengthy timeline may be due to its ambition and James Cameron's busy schedule. The lack of other updates has (until now) been to lack of funding and interest. But going forward with the numerous new projects, what should we expect? It seems like Iger hasn't been ignoring opportunities to trim the fat so shouldn't we expect Disney to start getting more for its dollars, and more quickly?

Would anybody care to give a more detailed, specific analysis?

I'm OK with the answer being that I need to go read DisneyWar or some other (newer) book!
 
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