A Spirited Perfect Ten

[skubersky]

Spirited Wednesday Musings:

I see many of you have taken the tangent of how Disney treats/values (it doesn't) its workers. It's a great topic, perhaps, one better suited for its own thread. But I have read this doc below and it is vomit inducing in many ways ... so many ways. Don't know if the guy still works for Disney, but his email is listed there, so feel free to contact him if he does:

http://www.trainingindustry.com/media/3647005/disney brand loyalty.pdf

And this from THR on the fact that shaming can effect how Disney operates: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-abc-reverses-layoffs-uproar-803268

I'm guessing that neither Seth nor Robert showed up here to really talk about the issue of Disney, raising prices and destroying the middle class? Yeah, I'm so surprised. I'm sure they've never heard I/we have been talking about them (sarcastic emoji deleted).

I'm sure Seth didn't get the pics/column from the dude in China who showed how easy it is for anyone not a WDC exec to get on site at SDL from Tom Bricker who picked it up here. I don't mind that, I like to see the news spread. Maybe in 3-4 years, people will finally get that "no, it isn't SOP for an American company to build a $5.5 billion-plus resort in China and have its leadership not allowed on site.'' THIS IS WHAT BEN FRITZ, BROOKS BARNES and Co are ignoring to garner favor with Bob Iger, Tom Staggs, Zenia Mucha and the Walt Disney Company leadership.

Is is true Cher will be on the new $10 bill? So many fanbois will be sooooo happy ...

Any propaganda come out from Disney regarding the Shanghai Disney Resort today?

Speaking of China (I know, my fans are getting alerts and ready with their prepared posts), I know I've mentioned the huge Baja Mar project in the Bahamas as a cautionary tale of having the Chinese build your multi-billion project. But it's been in the news yet again as things just keep getting worse. I think the Prime Minister of the Bahamas asked his people to pray for it (no, this is NOT a joke!)

Here's a bit of the latest news:

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2015/jun/15/pm-must-do-more-baha-mar/

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2015/jun/17/tough-call-deadlock-baha-mar/

So, @WDWFigment's stay at the Bora Bora bungalows was Bungle Bungled? Left in the swamps with no water ... water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink. Water, water everywhere yet with no showers Tom stinks. See, yet again, this is why I likes Mr. Bricker. He doesn't lie and criticizes where he feels it is due (and you better believe it was due here), even if he isn't paying for the stay (he did likewise recently after a subpar stay at DLP's Hotel NY).

Sorry, not ignoring you, I've just been very busy this week working on a book, and for some reason I'm not getting alerts when someone tags me.

I agree that the WaPo blog wasn't exactly my best work. To be brutally honest, I just wanted to ignore the piece but my editor wanted me to write something about it. I understand your point about WDW and the "middle class" but I think that WDW pricing is a symptom and convenient symbol, but not a cause or unique leading indicator. It's an issue that probably deserves more than a 1000 word blog post, but there you have it...

As for the Shangai photos, I think I saw the link on Screamscape, and was just passing it along in case others were interested.

 

[Cesar R M]

My last visit, I found the paths on Discovery Island narrow and crowded. I think they'll need more work if they expect more crowds...particularly the path between Island Mercantile and Harambe bridge. Walkways need to be revisited throughout the park.

Pretty sure that is why there are expanding the paths between Harambe and Asia.
Also connecting the Harambe bathrooms area (next to the theatre) to Avatar Land.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I have been to one because I wanted to meet a voice actor I really wanted to meet.

Trust me, you've seen NOTHING.
It gets worse.

A former friend of mine married a Furry. Coincidently enough, he works as someone who washes costumes.

 

[Cesar R M]

Well think about it.
They raise prices every year, close attractions with no replacements, do not invest in the parks and are reducing the cost of employees. What are the results.

Attendance goes up.

They won't change those practices until they have to.

Granted they could probably make more money with investments in the parks but that is always a gamble.

Attendance numbers cant change overnight anyway.
Most people already have planned things from months .. or even years ago.
Forced more thanks to MyMagic schedule system (for both dinning and fast passes)

 

[PhotoDave219]

Sorry, not ignoring you, I've just been very busy this week working on a book, and for some reason I'm not getting alerts when someone tags me.

I agree that the WaPo blog wasn't exactly my best work. To be brutally honest, I just wanted to ignore the piece but my editor wanted me to write something about it. I understand your point about WDW and the "middle class" but I think that WDW pricing is a symptom and convenient symbol, but not a cause or unique leading indicator. It's an issue that probably deserves more than a 1000 word blog post, but there you have it...

As for the Shangai photos, I think I saw the link on Screamscape, and was just passing it along in case others were interested.

My thoughts is that Disney is so large, they're a trend setter. They set the market. So if they wanted to be a good Corporate Citizen, everyone else would follow suit.

 

[Cesar R M]

Its getting that way isn't it? I just looked at a Christmas week vacation and my jaw dropped. Its getting a little silly. Disneyland is not much better in terms of pricing.

Well, at least Disneyland seems worth it right now? tons of improvements, new shows, new spectacular, new night parade.

 

[Cesar R M]

A former friend of mine married a Furry. Coincidently enough, he works as someone who washes costumes.

I shudder to think if the rumour of crusty costumes is true.
Specially if you consider some of these expensive costumes (5,000+ USD with animatronic heads) are used for.. you know..

 

[SYRIK2000]

Attendance numbers cant change overnight anyway.
Most people already have planned things from months .. or even years ago.
Forced more thanks to MyMagic schedule system (for both dinning and fast passes)

I definitely agree with that.
But also Going to Disney is so ingrained in the American culture. People will always keep going back and just justify the cost to themselves with little or no thought of cultural consequences. We all want to bring our kids and grandkids.

 

[SYRIK2000]

My thoughts is that Disney is so large, they're a trend setter. They set the market. So if they wanted to be a good Corporate Citizen, everyone else would follow suit.

I agree Disney is the model. But it's cheaper to use PR and spin then to actually do it.

 

[Quinnmac000]

I wonder how Iger and the BOD are doing with people predicting Inside Out might be the 1st Pixar film to not be #1 opening weekend...

How hyper-aggressive is the current box office marketplace? It’s so aggressive, we’re running box office curtain raisers on Tuesday. Disney is releasing its first Pixar film,Inside Out, since June 2013’s Monsters University, and while that title might have sounded like it would clearly be the No. 1 champ this weekend on paper, no one expected Universal’s dinosaur fourthquel Jurassic World to eat Disney’s lunch

Industry estimates peg Jurassic World to hold with a decline of 55-62% in its second frame putting its FSS at $80-94M. The wide range takes into account the swing factor of those moviegoers who might venture to see Inside Out. No question about it,Jurassic World will beat Inside Out, which is being forecasted at $60M-$65M at 3,946 theaters. 3,100 hubs will be 3D and there will also be some heft from a handful of Imax. Inside Out follows the adventures of the various emotions — voiced by Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black and Bill Hader — in a young girl’s head as they aim to keep her stable. Even with the dinos knocking some happiness out of Inside Out — c’mon that’s a solid Pixar bow. It’s not in the record echelon of Toy Story 3 ($110.3M), but it’s in the realm of previous summer pleasers WALL-E ($63M opening) and Up ($65M opening). Disney started the word-of-mouth chatter at CinemaCon in April when they unveiled Inside Out to the press and exhibs where it was warmly received. The studio carried Inside Out over to the Cannes Film Festival where it played out of competition and nabbed a respectable 10-minute standing ovation at the Palais.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Well think about it.
They raise prices every year, close attractions with no replacements, do not invest in the parks and are reducing the cost of employees. What are the results.

Attendance goes up.

They won't change those practices until they have to.

Granted they could probably make more money with investments in the parks but that is always a gamble.

Nice second post.

Attendance doesnt always go up.... (TIME FOR A CHART!)

Attendance overall trends up. However, two large events affected WDW on a huge basis. First, the 9/11 attacks caused a drop of 13% overall attendance to WDW from 2000-2002, going from 43.2M to 37.6M guests. Yes, it was a global terrorism event, but still could happen again today, disrupting the tourism markets. Disneyland/DCA were largely unaffected attendance wise as they saw gains over the same period, leaving only a 2% drop for Domestic Parks during that period.

The other? The real estate bubble bursting in 2008. WDW saw effectively zero growth from 2008-2011, with the total number of guests only growing 0.006% during that time frame.

So no, they dont always come and it doesnt always grow, but WDW sets the trend for Domestic Parks attendance.

You can see the clearly pronounced downward trends for those time periods.

 

[khale1970]

Disney gets what it pays for. Which are people one step above homeless.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-01/not-everyone-can-work-for-Costco

WDW's biggest customer service problem is they can't or won't pay employees better than they could make in similar positions at other businesses so they don't have any particular long term concern about losing the job. The link above explains a bit about efficiency wages and how they help differentiate Costco from Walmart. I found it interesting because when I was just starting out in the workforce Walmart was considered a great entry level job because they paid more than others for comparable work. It was also the time when Walmart customer service was considered outstanding. Been a long time since either of those things were true.

 

[tribbleorlfl]

If you know something, then spill ... or simply drop me a note, although I know I owe you one already!
And with that size of property, I'm sure more can be done ... especially if some of the surrounding properties were to be ... purchased!

When I first started at UO (was still Universal Escape at the time), they shared a Master Plan map with us in training that featured a golf resort in the former Martin Merrieta property they owned, later sold and repurchased within the past couple years.

I don't know if WnW is large enough to hold a hotel and golf course, but if they're planning an upscale hotel for the property, I could see them building more convention space connected to the hotel and finally developing that golf course on the other property.

 

[Shaman]

I wonder how Iger and the BOD are doing with people predicting Inside Out might be the 1st Pixar film to not be #1 opening weekend...

More to do with JP over-performing than a Pixar film under-performing. The reviews have been really good so far for Inside Out. Whether it debuts on top really doesn't mean much. The total earned this weekend and at the end is what matters.

 

[BrianLo]

I wonder how Iger and the BOD are doing with people predicting Inside Out might be the 1st Pixar film to not be #1 opening weekend...

It is a very odd scenario they certainly could not have foreseen.

Technically shouldn't matter too much if it performs similarly to their other films. Being number one is just a title after all if both movies are doing relatively gangbusters.

I think they'll still spin a nice profit, have some pretty solid merchandising opportunities and are a shoe in for the Oscar. Being one of the best reviewed animated films of all time can certainly dry their tears.

 

[aladdin2007]

That's a good question.

A good (and honest) answer is that in three years time, the entire top leadership of TWDC will be different. Iger and Staggs will be gone ... just like Crofton and Rasulo now ... Georgie K will be able to do a big spread for The Advocate as he'll be history too. So many ... Horn won't be running the Studios come 2018. Holz won't be running DCL.

On a MUCH lower level, even Phil Holmes won't be lurking under the MK about 112 days a year.

I grew up on Disney. I loved the parks. EPCOT Center inspired me on so many levels in a way that is scary to think about when you see what it is today. I loved animation and films. ... Then as I got older, I began to make friends in the company (from front line to top creatives to the exec level).

I still love spending time with family and friends at Disney's P&R and on the DCL, but far less at WDW.

Just because I can't stand current leadership doesn't mean all of that dies. ... Because TWDC should be around in three years. And all of those people who are so important to it today? They won't be.

spirit, I guess the question is, is there anyone coming up in the line that would finally be a positive change/replacement? I def think they need new blood from the top to TDO as some of these names above just make me shake my head, but it just doesn't feel or look like a shakeup or good change is on the horizon.

 

[SYRIK2000]

Nice second post.

Attendance doesnt always go up.... (TIME FOR A CHART!)

View attachment 97501

Attendance overall trends up. However, two large events affected WDW on a huge basis. First, the 9/11 attacks caused a drop of 13% overall attendance to WDW from 2000-2002, going from 43.2M to 37.6M guests. Yes, it was a global terrorism event, but still could happen again today, disrupting the tourism markets. Disneyland/DCA were largely unaffected attendance wise as they saw gains over the same period, leaving only a 2% drop for Domestic Parks during that period.

The other? The real estate bubble bursting in 2008. WDW saw effectively zero growth from 2008-2011, with the total number of guests only growing 0.006% during that time frame.

So no, they dont always come and it doesnt always grow, but WDW sets the trend for Domestic Parks attendance.

View attachment 97503

You can see the clearly pronounced downward trends for those time periods.

Outside factors can definitely disrupt your business as you've shown.

I'm just referring to Disney practices which don't have a negative impact on attendance.

A perfect example is the hard-ticketed events that run from Sept thru Dec. They get to charge twice for attendance to the same park on those days. And sometimes have another hard-ticketed event inside of some of those, thus charging a third time.

And people eat it up.

How many of those events are sold out? Which will just cause Disney to add more days each year and spin it as more opportunity for you to attend.

 

[SYRIK2000]

More to do with JP over-performing than a Pixar film under-performing. The reviews have been really good so far for Inside Out. Whether it debuts on top really doesn't mean much. The total earned this weekend and at the end is what matters.

I'm hoping Inside Out does so well it causes them to bring back the Wonders of Life pavilion in Epcot. With a rebranded Cranium Command as Inside Out but they need to bring back Body Wars with it, just repurpose the simulators from Disney Quest.

 

[71jason]

Just when I'm out, they keep pulling me back in...

AK is selling brownies shaped like animal dung.

Let that sink in.

Brownies marketed as animal dung. TWDC is LITERALLY telling its guests to eat [excrement].

For once in my life, I'm reduced to the Millenial cry, "I can't even right now."

 

[PhotoDave219]

Outside factors can definitely disrupt your business as you've shown.

I'm just referring to Disney practices which don't have a negative impact on attendance.

A perfect example is the hard-ticketed events that run from Sept thru Dec. They get to charge twice for attendance to the same park on those days. And sometimes have another hard-ticketed event inside of some of those, thus charging a third time.

And people eat it up.

How many of those events are sold out? Which will just cause Disney to add more days each year and spin it as more opportunity for you to attend.

I'll have to double-check. @wdwmagic, you posted the hard ticket sell outs on the news page?

Anyways, 2014 showed only 2 more Hard Ticket Events than 2013, with one extra MNSSHP & MVMCP than 2013. Total of 47 dates at the MK or 13% of the entire year.

2014 Breakdowns?

• Night of Joy? 2.
• MNSSHP? 25.
• MVMCP? 20.

So lets look at attendance on those days.....

In 2013, Those 45 days drew an off-peak crowd (3 or below) 33 times, or 73% of the time. The other 12 were merely average.
MNSSHP days (September/October) were split 16/8 while MVMCP (November/December) were split 15/4.

In 2014, Those 47 days drew an off-peak crowd (3 or below) 31 times, or 66% of the time. The other 16 were merely average.
MNSSHP days (September/October) were split 15/10 while MVMCP (November/December) were split 14/6.

SO about 2/3rds of the time, a Hard Ticket Event is a slow day before the party.